Hello, I'm new to the forum. First of all I wan't to say that English is not my native languague, so my apologies.
I wanted to throw in a hypothesis based on the War of the Spanish Succession, as it included a series of rocambolesque deaths and circumstances that led to the annulation of the previous partition treaties and to general war and a new partition under Utrecht, Rastatt and Baden.
One of the key moments was the death of Joseph I of Austria and the Grand Dauphin Louis during 1710-1711. The Archduke Charles was then next in line for the Emperor crown and France's succession depended on the unstable Duke of Burgundy (that also dies in 1712). The strategic scenario that Great Britain and the other austracist allies wanted to enforce varied completely, and the partitions were modified for ever.
So...what if history had followed a more normal course in 1711 it is the old Sun King who dies in place of his son, grand-son and the middle-aged Emperor.
With the Archduke Charles foot still in the Aragonese realms of Spain, the allies advancing in the North and the situation in northern Italy looking grim, the French would've been more keen to go to the negotiation table, and a possible partition scenario could've been the following:
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The Crown of Castille and the Kingdoms of Indies to Phillip of Anjou (primary objective of Bourbons is achieved)
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The Crown of Aragon, Sardinia and Two Sicilies to Charles of Habsburg (rules as a composite state prince).
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Duchy of Milan to Savoy, (more interesting than OTL Sicily/Sardinia).
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Duchy of Lorraine and Bar to France (the sweetening deal for the 3 fleurs de lys to sign treaty and complete the hexagon).
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In exchange the Duke of Lorraine is rewarded the Southern Netherlands (buffer state to the delight of the Dutch).
- Acadia, Terranova to Great Britain (as OTL emerge long term victors of the war).
Apparently, it doesn't change much with respect to OTL, but this scenario offers the opportunity to stablish a better and more coherent quilibrium of power in Europe, based in 3 great blocks where 1 alone could never win a war against a coalition of the other 2 blocks.
1. Bourbon block, with France leading as a land power in Europe and Castille as it's atlantic complement.
2. Habsbourg block, (stronger than OTL) with the Emperor leading as a power in central Europe and Aragon as it's mediterranean complement and counterbalance to the Bourbons in Southern Europe.
3. Anglo-Portuguese block, leading colonial trade at sea and able to side with either block decisively.
And also, you have now some joker allies like over-powered Savoy, the Dutch, the Lorrainish Netherlands and Brandenburg-Prussia to ensure fun in future wars.
¿So what do you think? ¿Was this scenario ever feasable? ¿Do you feel it is better than the OTL outcome?
¿Would it lead to a better balance of power during the 18th century?
¿How would conflicts develop in this more complex scenario?
¿How would France, Britain and Austria act?
¿Would Spain be land scenario of conflict in the future? ¿Who will dominate the Mediterranean now? ¿Can France-Castille compete with Britain-Portugal in the ocean seas? ¿Does Savoy-Milan lead more agressively as core for an earlier Italian reunification? ¿Can Charles III of Aragón hold his realms long term?