In February 1712, while the War of the Spanish Succession raged across Europe, the entire family of Louis, Duke of Burgundy, the Petit Dauphin, heir to the French throne, contracted the measles - he himself, his wife, and his two children. He and his wife died, and soon afterwards also the eldest son, who was treated the traditional way, with bloodletting and other assorted awfulness. The younger son wasn't and survived the measles... and went on to become King Louis XV, when three years later his great-grandfather, Louis XIV, died.
This is of course a very obvious PoD: What if the the IOTL future Louis XV also died.
The trouble is that the next senior Bourbon has just been made King Philip V of Spain a year before the Sun King's death, under the strict condition to abdicate any succession rights to the French throne. However, there were genuine legal justifications to consider the abdication of French succession rights by Philip V as illegitimate or at least non-binding - and thus you get a very classical 17th/18th century War of Succession situation. And I do think Philip would have gone for it.
The premier rival claimant in France would be the Duke Philip II of Orleans, IOTL regent for Louis XV, as the Orleans are the next senior legitimate Bourbon line. However, there is also Duke Louis Auguste of Maine, an illegitimate son of Louis XIV - who, however, was legitimized by the king shortly before the king's death. If one accepts that legitimation, that makes him more senior than the Orleans (but still less senior than Philip V), but one can also very much deny the legitimacy of that act. I think both of them would also have gone for it.
The foreign powers, just coming out of a war with France, would now fear the same thing France had feared in 1701 - that Spain could fall to an enemy power. An union between France and Spain would make the Bourbons unmatchable. So there would probably be an alliance coming together to support one of the two "French" candidates.
So... just one year after the end of the War of the French Succession, we get the next one. Give France's power everything would depend on whom the kingdom itself is supporting. If it isn't Philip V of Spain (the only candidate with an own outside powerbase), then we get TTL's version of the War of the Quadruple Alliance, with everyone beating down on Spain. If it is him, then we basically do get a rematch of the Spanish Succession (with some minor shifts... Prussia under Frederick William might sit that one out, for example).
This is of course a very obvious PoD: What if the the IOTL future Louis XV also died.
The trouble is that the next senior Bourbon has just been made King Philip V of Spain a year before the Sun King's death, under the strict condition to abdicate any succession rights to the French throne. However, there were genuine legal justifications to consider the abdication of French succession rights by Philip V as illegitimate or at least non-binding - and thus you get a very classical 17th/18th century War of Succession situation. And I do think Philip would have gone for it.
The premier rival claimant in France would be the Duke Philip II of Orleans, IOTL regent for Louis XV, as the Orleans are the next senior legitimate Bourbon line. However, there is also Duke Louis Auguste of Maine, an illegitimate son of Louis XIV - who, however, was legitimized by the king shortly before the king's death. If one accepts that legitimation, that makes him more senior than the Orleans (but still less senior than Philip V), but one can also very much deny the legitimacy of that act. I think both of them would also have gone for it.
The foreign powers, just coming out of a war with France, would now fear the same thing France had feared in 1701 - that Spain could fall to an enemy power. An union between France and Spain would make the Bourbons unmatchable. So there would probably be an alliance coming together to support one of the two "French" candidates.
So... just one year after the end of the War of the French Succession, we get the next one. Give France's power everything would depend on whom the kingdom itself is supporting. If it isn't Philip V of Spain (the only candidate with an own outside powerbase), then we get TTL's version of the War of the Quadruple Alliance, with everyone beating down on Spain. If it is him, then we basically do get a rematch of the Spanish Succession (with some minor shifts... Prussia under Frederick William might sit that one out, for example).
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