Hm. Most Succession Wars didnt play out as civil wars, though. The Spanish one was an exception in that, not the rule. I see little reason to believe that France would NOT crown the Duke of Orleans, so what it comes down to would be a straight Franco-Spanish war - which of course Spain has no chance of winning until the rest of Europe decides to hammer on France for past grievances sake.
I agree, but only if Philip do not give up the Spanish throne. If he decides that Paris is more important than Madrid and gives up Spain in exchange of having his claims to the French throne recognized than I think Orleans would have no chance.