War of 1914, when is WW1?

[Deleted member 1487]

If war in Europe starts in 1914, but ends quickly with a peace deal after a short, sharp conflict due to the Entente mishandling her armies worse and getting defeated in the field, when would then WW1 actually happen?

For the sake of argument the POD is that the BEF is surrounded and Mons and is crushed, which leaves the French 5th army's flank open and it too gets badly defeated. The result is that the Entente sues for peace when Paris then gets surrounded and the French position becomes untenable. Russia doesn't actually lose anything in the deal, because they aren't really having much of their territory occupied by the time the Entente panics and asks for a deal, they just have their armies beaten up a bit in the field, but still have troops in Austrian Galicia. They just have to let the Austrians deal with Serbia. In the west the French, to get the Germans to leave, have to give over some slices of the border regions, transfer some colonies, and remove some of their border forts, while paying a limited indemnity. Belgium has to give up the Congo in return for Germany evacuating their territory. Britain loses nothing because nothing can be enforced on her.

With all of that the Entente is probably going to hit some internal struggles from recrimination for who lost them the war, while Austria has to live with the defeats they suffered to the Russians and the Germans rescuing them. The Czar of course has to deal with the defeat and loss of Serbia, as well as probably the loss of French investments for some time. So would there still be a WW1 ITTL at some point after the 1914 conflict? Nothing is actually resolved for the most part and in some ways tensions are made even worse due to how short the war was and how it relatively leaves all the same powers and conflict intact in the long run. If a WW1 does break out later does anyone have any idea how much the 1914 conflict would influence the various militaries for the next war?

 

[Khanzeer]

Seeds of a future german -english conflict will be laid and it which will erupt at a later stage as Germany will be too big as a landpower for britain to tolerate.Probably as soon as Britain has recovered economically from the war they will prepare for another one not more than 10 yrs I think.


Germany cannot manage any more colonies in this TL as their navy will still be competing with the RN and potentially USA on the high seas.So Germans gaining more land in africa will be meaningless

A-H is still on their course to be dismembered albeit more slowly

Now if germans can somehow get USA on their side and maintain peace with russia than they have a chance to maintain their present status as in this timeline as the biggest continental power , that might mean leaving A-H to the wolves

 

[Catspoke]

Germany has a lot to put in order here, the Belgian Congo and whatever French colonies they pick up (the Germans wanted Togo extended to the Niger at times OTL so maybe that happens, maybe some Pacific colonies, New Caledonia, Papeete maybe). So I think they are generally happy, however it becomes obvious pretty soon if not already of what control of oil sources means so some nervousness there to get some oil somewhere.

(Its hard to imagine Britain making peace if German is given Morocco or Madagascar or something strategically dangerous. I could see the Germans picking up Luxembourg and creating a 10 mile German occupied neutral zone in front of the Lorraine mines, but sill technically French, smart Germany might not even take any French euro territory at all)

But regardless of the details...

I am assuming The Ottomans just missed on getting in. Could Germany and Russia get friendly, not much to fight over any more. I honestly could see Russia starting stuff with the Ottomans soon, the Russian fleet will be stout by 1916, The Goeben will have gone home and Britain might just keep the 2 Dreadnoughts because it thinks it needs them. I could sort of see a Sevres style take down of the Ottomans, Germany would be allowed to pickup Northern Iraq oil and the length of the rail line in Northern Syria to Alexandretta (German Kurdistan????). Britain gets Palestine, Jordan and Southern Iraq. France gets the rest of Lebanon and Syria. Greece and Bulgaria pick up bits. Straits is internationalized. (OR maybe war breaks out over the detail).

In general Britain is nervous. Germany might have been out built in the Naval race, but Russia is building up now. Austria is still a naval threat even. Irish wanting independence, India wanting independence, lots of threats.

Japan needs to reconcile with German quickly at the end of the war, the Japanese haven't taken anything yet so maybe pre war status quo is possible OR Japan dithers and continues the siege OR maybe the German navy eager to prove something sails out.

Regardless, if Germany is happy with the new order of things, peace could happen for a long time, Its up to her, it always was really, Russia could start being difficult but that will annoy Britain more than anybody.

 

[RodentRevolution]

If Germany gets a nice quick campaign in the West and the Entente including Russia throw in the towel it is likely that the Kaiserreich would be quite modest in its expectations. Because all three powers are likely to have a lot of capacity to still hurt Germany and AH this is going to be a real negotiation. If the Germans turn east and fight the Russians the war inevitably goes on longer.

So do not expect a grab for the Congo. The Germans will want to play down violating Belgian neutrality and especially not compound by invading them, the whole we were just passing through goes to crap if they ask for Belgian colonies.

Serbia probably survives too, taking it out completely is not worth a war with a still extant Russia especially when the Royal Navy is not hors de combat. It probably suffers some territorial adjustment and is forced to pay reparations and seriously dismantle any networks of Bosnian Serbs operating on its territory. There may of course be some problems with Serbian officers, who tended to rather ignore if not occasionally butcher the Royal Government so only a probably.

The Tsar might well not do too badly. Yeah the French lost and there was that embarrassing incident in East Prussia but overall it went well. The Germans are scary and warlike and who else is going to protect all the Russians?

There may be some minor colonial adjustments against the French and possibly even against the British but I will think more likely the Kaiser and his advisers will rather take the reparations money and prestige boost and try and parley that into electoral success for their political proxies in the Reichstag. A lot of nerves will likely be settled as if the French go down that easily twice there is less to worry about from the Russians.

 

[Not James Stockdale]

If the US and UK do not fight together here, the war that a lot of American naval officers were OTL worried would happen around 1930 is probably more likely. We would see uncontrolled naval expansion in this period and the British would be unable to maintain the two-power standard in the face of the American and German economies. The worst case for them would be the US and Germany basically teaming up to take almost the entire Empire, probably with the exception of the territories between India and Australia.

 

[RodentRevolution]

If the US and UK do not fight together here, the war that a lot of American naval officers were OTL worried would happen around 1930 is probably more likely. We would see uncontrolled naval expansion in this period and the British would be unable to maintain the two-power standard in the face of the American and German economies. The worst case for them would be the US and Germany basically teaming up to take almost the entire Empire, probably with the exception of the territories between India and Australia.

This is not likely as the Americans did not need territory as much as they needed markets. Taking the British Empire is largely superfluous due to the largely open nature of that market (not truly free trade by the C20th but close enough). The main threat was from German competition for those markets. So I suppose you might see a US-German war with Germany attacking US trade and the US responding by hitting German colonies and of course German shipping.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

I am assuming The Ottomans just missed on getting in. Could Germany and Russia get friendly, not much to fight over any more. I honestly could see Russia starting stuff with the Ottomans soon, the Russian fleet will be stout by 1916, The Goeben will have gone home and Britain might just keep the 2 Dreadnoughts because it thinks it needs them. I could sort of see a Sevres style take down of the Ottomans, Germany would be allowed to pickup Northern Iraq oil and the length of the rail line in Northern Syria to Alexandretta (German Kurdistan????). Britain gets Palestine, Jordan and Southern Iraq. France gets the rest of Lebanon and Syria. Greece and Bulgaria pick up bits. Straits is internationalized. (OR maybe war breaks out over the detail).

Yes, the Ottomans don't come in in time. Germany was highly interested in containing Russia and was effectively allied with the Ottomans due to their economic interests in the Empire, especially as they went in on the Berlin-Baghdad RR:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berlin–Baghdad_railway
Germany had too many interests in a united, allied Ottoman Empire rather than one broken up among the major powers.

In general Britain is nervous. Germany might have been out built in the Naval race, but Russia is building up now. Austria is still a naval threat even. Irish wanting independence, India wanting independence, lots of threats.

Russia wasn't really a naval threat, but the threat to the Ottoman Empire and potentially India from Russia was likely a problem (the Great Game). Austria's navy was so small and constrained by Italy as to be a non-threat. Ireland and India though will be a problem.

Japan needs to reconcile with German quickly at the end of the war, the Japanese haven't taken anything yet so maybe pre war status quo is possible OR Japan dithers and continues the siege OR maybe the German navy eager to prove something sails out.

I don't see how the German fleet could do much against them, likely status quo ante bellum.

Regardless, if Germany is happy with the new order of things, peace could happen for a long time, Its up to her, it always was really, Russia could start being difficult but that will annoy Britain more than anybody.

There are arguments that things were coming to a head with Russia due to their military and economic expansion, but Russia has internal political issues to deal with. Still, they have interests in taking down the Ottomans, which directly butts up against German interests. Depending on how well Russia recovers and how fast, plus how much Britain is in the mood to stay friendly with Russia and stay against Germany, then it may well not be up to Berlin whether war happens.

This is not likely as the Americans did not need territory as much as they needed markets. Taking the British Empire is largely superfluous due to the largely open nature of that market (not truly free trade by the C20th but close enough). The main threat was from German competition for those markets. So I suppose you might see a US-German war with Germany attacking US trade and the US responding by hitting German colonies and of course German shipping.

German competition with US trade? The US was winning thanks to their mass production model, there really wasn't a big push for actual war over trade access.

 

[Deleted member 94680]

If the US and UK do not fight together here, the war that a lot of American naval officers were OTL worried would happen around 1930 is probably more likely. We would see uncontrolled naval expansion in this period and the British would be unable to maintain the two-power standard in the face of the American and German economies. The worst case for them would be the US and Germany basically teaming up to take almost the entire Empire, probably with the exception of the territories between India and Australia.

Really?

 

[Aisha Clan-Clan]

would it even happen?

 

[Modern Imperialism]

People should always remember the Kaiserreich isn’t as land hungry as the Nazis, well at least within Europe they were not. On the western front I could see them taking Luxembourg and that’s it. Germany probably does not want lands that are too overly Francophone. The rest would be more indirect stuff. Like France being forced to recognize all current Germans claims and renounce theirs to German lands. France’s border with the Germans are demilitarized. Germany might even occupy Paris and northern France for a year or 2 after the war. Germany is likely to take French lands in Central Africa and Belgium Congo to connect the majority of its Africa colonies. Belgium might get screwed hard in this. Belgium Congo could be a way to fulfill German demands without France or Britain having to give more of their land. I think in this situation Belgium could fall apart in which case Flanders goes to the Netherlands and wallonia becomes a independent buffer state between France and Germany. The only thing the UK agrees to is to recognized German gains while not losing anything themselves.

Russia will probably be similar to Britain when is comes to concessions. The defeat is an embarrassment similar to the defeat by Japan. It causes unrest at home but no where near the extreme of otl. The Russians might have to let Serbia go to save itself and avoid a one on one war with the Germans who might now push the issue if refused. Serbia is likely occupied by Austria-Hungary who as punishment gives Bulgaria its claims over Serbia while making the rest of Serbia a puppet. Other then that Russia only has to recognize German gains elsewhere and everything goes back to status quo.
German victory could drive Italy more towards the Central Powers. The US relations are still indifferent to mix. Most of the stuff that turns the US against Germany doesn’t happen. The US can easily go towards being pro-German or at least anti-British depending how things develop. US isolationism is better described as a regional hegemony policy. The US who is a economic powerhouse who is focused on the Western Hemisphere and minor involvement in the Far East is more likely to come into conflict with Britain then Germany. Germany just has to be open to trade and stay out of the Western Hemisphere to stay on good terms with the US. The large and less forcefully assimilated German American population will also have a large impact on American views of Germany. A century with both a rising American and German superpower might not relate into conflict with the two. This could mean German influence on American culture might increase greatly and maybe even rival Anglo culture within the US.

I don’t think Austria-Hungary will survive. Reform is likely to fail and the empire will slowly die. The empire might become increasingly dependent on Germany to the point of becoming a little more then a puppet of Germany. German and Austria becomes EU level integration with each other. Austria allows Germans from Germany to settle and live within their lands freely. This helps Germanize big parts of the empire. The empire is slowing divided up by Germany and Italy. Germany gets most of the Austrian half of the empire while Italy is given a good bit of its claims which makes Italy a solid part of the central powers. The rest are probably made German puppets and clients with large and influential German minorities. I see a Hungarian Rebellion happening eventually and the Germans coming in to help Austria stomp it out. The Ottomans likely get partitioned. Britain might try to take Ottomans Arab lands to take it away from German influence. Other powers and nations will likely jump into it to get a piece of land or claims over the Ottomans. Some new nations are formed out of that too.

 

[Jiraiyathegallant]

Britain and France will have suffered the worst defeats, have the worst demographics of all the Great Powers (already down to a TFR of 2.3 for France and 2.8 for Britain prewar while Germany is around 3.5, AH and Italy over 4, Russia at nearly 7, US 3.4 and receiving immigrants), and most of the other Great Powers are poorer than they are but converging over time.

If Britain and France want a round two, they will basically need a much stronger ally to standup to a Germany/Austria-Hungary alliance. Either a Russia that has undergone greater development or a militarized US. And they will need to convince these allies to join them even as they (Britain/France) will have less to offer as time goes on. Britain and France will have less relevance as time goes on.

Given America’s distance, lack of military, lack of interest, and difficulty mobilizing to Europe I doubt they help start it and will probably try to stand clear of anything that emerges. Provided incompetent or unlucky leadership, Russia could still get into a war over the Ottoman Empire, something in the Balkans, or something in the Far East, but unless they are just trying to opportunistically prey on the OE and don’t expect to see international resistance I don’t see why. Russia and Japan had warmed up and with Serbia crushed Russia doesn’t have much reason to fight there.

Maybe something Italy, the Ottoman Empire, Japan, or China does could start one?

 

[Catspoke]

Yes, the Ottomans don't come in in time. Germany was highly interested in containing Russia and was effectively allied with the Ottomans due to their economic interests in the Empire, especially as they went in on the Berlin-Baghdad RR:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berlin–Baghdad_railway
Germany had too many interests in a united, allied Ottoman Empire rather than one broken up among the major powers.

Russia wasn't really a naval threat, but the threat to the Ottoman Empire and potentially India from Russia was likely a problem (the Great Game).

So its 1917 in this time line. Some unrest in Turkish Armenia happens as is typical, the Turks overreact, kill people, Russia threatens to intervene and liberate and have a fair amount of sympathy in the press.

Germany in the last war, just picked up a huge Belgian Congo which will take some time to put in order, plus whatever bit of French colonial empire have to be reorganized. Germany finally has her place in the sun.

Plus while victorious the smart people in Germany saw how many casualties that short war victory produced, how much it cost, how Britain swept their trade from the sea and how quickly the British took over colonies like Togo.

Plus the Ottomans can change politically in a moment, some "even younger turk" revolution.

Germany needs a secure source of oil.

The Austrians have no interest at all in helping the Germans here.

The Russians have beefed up their military, their navy, their young air force are strong, the military fixed some things learned in that short war.

So Germany blinks and doesn't want to give a "blank check" to the Turks in this crisis.

Some smart guys in Germany agree to a secret conference, Germany, Russia, Britain, France. Germany is ok with a Sevres style takedown of Turkey, if she can pick up Mosul and Kirkuk oil and the rail line to near the Syrian coast.

Britain is ok with this, because it puts the Germans between them and the Russians and they secure Palestine, Jordan and Southern Iraq in the deal. France picks up Lebanon and Southern Syria.

Is it really that implausible?

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

If the US and UK do not fight together here, the war that a lot of American naval officers were OTL worried would happen around 1930 is probably more likely. We would see uncontrolled naval expansion in this period and the British would be unable to maintain the two-power standard in the face of the American and German economies. The worst case for them would be the US and Germany basically teaming up to take almost the entire Empire, probably with the exception of the territories between India and Australia.

The US in that era was the Progressive US, way too many voters looked askance at the Imperial and aristocratic aspects of early 20th Century Germany. That includes German immigrants like my great grandfather who was a Swabian dodging the conscription for the Franco Prussian War. As much as my Irish ancestored family despised the Brits I cant see the US having truck with the Kaisers foreign policy. The 'conservative' elements in the US were anti foreign as well, ie: the revived Klan of 1915 had Germanic influences on its list of not 100% American.

This is not likely as the Americans did not need territory as much as they needed markets. Taking the British Empire is largely superfluous due to the largely open nature of that market (not truly free trade by the C20th but close enough). The main threat was from German competition for those markets. So I suppose you might see a US-German war with Germany attacking US trade and the US responding by hitting German colonies and of course German shipping.

...
German competition with US trade? The US was winning thanks to their mass production model, there really wasn't a big push for actual war over trade access.

The US German trade tensions seem mostly to be in Latin America. A slice of Germanies business community were trying to invest in Latin America, as were many others. Where they were received it was often for political reasons. Local resentment against US dominance led to deals with the Europeans. United Fruit of course was not having it & the Marines were sent ashore to ensure order. Since the London investment banks were backing United Fruit & ect... they could live with it

 

[Modern Imperialism]

The US in that era was the Progressive US, way too many voters looked askance at the Imperial and aristocratic aspects of early 20th Century Germany. That includes German immigrants like my great grandfather who was a Swabian dodging the conscription for the Franco Prussian War. As much as my Irish ancestored family despised the Brits I cant see the US having truck with the Kaisers foreign policy. The 'conservative' elements in the US were anti foreign as well, ie: the revived Klan of 1915 had Germanic influences on its list of not 100% American.






The US German trade tensions seem mostly to be in Latin America. A slice of Germanies business community were trying to invest in Latin America, as were many others. Where they were received it was often for political reasons. Local resentment against US dominance led to deals with the Europeans. United Fruit of course was not having it & the Marines were sent ashore to ensure order. Since the London investment banks were backing United Fruit & ect... they could live with it

I think you might end up with a situation where the US is officially neutral but maybe German leaning for pragmatic reasons. Britain has a lot more places where they can overlap with the US and unintentionally step on there toes a bit. British meddling in Venezuela was not taken well in the US when that happened in otl. Germany is much easier to lock out of the Western Hemisphere. Most smart German leaders know that and would avoid pushing things with the US and even if they did the US would just block them out of the region somehow and go about it’s day. Germany can’t really push back against the US in the Western Hemisphere like Britain and without the events of ww1 America at worse would have a screw off policy towards Germany if they try to push them. This would just involve blocking off Germanic economic expansion into Latin America and the Caribbean. Without otl ww1 I doubt Germany will go as far as unrestricted navy warfare or trying to get Mexico help when it comes to the US. The Kaiserreich might be too aristocratic but many Americans still consider Britain aristocratic at this time even if it was less so then Germany. A situation like this could see a US who doesn’t trust Europe at all. A US in this situation might not even be Eurocentric in its outlook or self image like otl. To quote Arthur Morgan “that old world bullshit got no place here” would best sum up many American attitudes towards Europe without US involvement in this pod. If any European power starts violating the Monroe Doctrine too much America will have issues with them especially if it relates to trade. German Americans are more often from liberal roots. Many left Europe after the revolution of 1849 and as a response to the lack of liberal reform by the regimes there. But it is important to remember those liberals often supported a unified Germany and some even supported a Greater German solution to unification. They are liberal but many had nationalist undertones and sympathies. They might not like the Kaiserreich but Germany itself they do want to see do well and not subdued by other powers. German Americans also have economic ties to the country. Without ww1 that will increase greatly. The German Population could honestly become part of mainstream American culture due to its size and not facing force assimilation. Basically instead of forced assimilation you have more cultural integration and exchange between German Americans and greater Americans. Americanized German speaking population might still lose any of its loyalties or sympathies towards Europe over the years just as otl assimilated Germans did especially given the political leanings of German Americans.

Additionally. America might indirectly help Germany just because it dislikes Britain more. The American Anglo population is much less sympathetic towards its European ties then other groups. Only New England region kept the closer cultural and trade ties with them. The rest of the country does not care about being fellow Anglos or see little kinship with Britain anymore by 1914. This leads to a population that is mostly indifferent to Britain or at worse hostile depending on the group in question. It speaks volumes of Germany diplomatic stupidity that they got the US to help Britain.

 

[Catspoke]

The powers learned some things. Navally little happened but the distant blockade concept is known, heligoland bight happened, the germans really didnt get many raiders fitted out. Togo fell. The british navy kept them from losing anything at the peace. The german army won the war. Not much to be proud of for the german navy.

 

[The Gunslinger]

The Anglo-Japanese alliance is going to prove very important with a powerful Germany still existing, but its relations with other powers might come into question. France is looking very weak (I doubt there will to too many border adjustments and what will be will be minor but not having showered herself in glory is going to look poorly in Britain) but Russia is going to continue to grow and got off very lightly from what little fighting took place.

I wonder if Britain doesn't pull away from Europe after a brief but bungled entanglement. Also, Ireland is going to come to a head before long and that's going to occupy the country.

 

[Catspoke]

Could we see some alliance between australia, new zealand and japan to try to keep the pacific places they grabbed so far. Its certainly interesting with the war shutting down in september, its hard to force anybody to give that stuff back.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

Could we see some alliance between australia, new zealand and japan to try to keep the pacific places they grabbed so far. Its certainly interesting with the war shutting down in september, its hard to force anybody to give that stuff back.

Negotiations and face saving deals. Of course many leave the table thinking they have been screwed, but thats normal. ie: Japan got most of what it wanted in the Portsmouth Treaty, still there was a popular opinion the US somehow favored the Russians thus cheating Japan.

 

[Modern Imperialism]

I keep seeing some comments about Russia continued growth but wouldn’t this defeat cause a 1905 level revolution? Unless a better and healthier Tsar comes into power(which I think is unlikely but not impossible) I think Russia would be similar to modern China. A paper tiger many nations fear due to its size but in reality it is plagued with internal problems and behind technologically and culturally. Even if Russia industrialize most of the people who benefit from that are the elites and foreign investors. A industrialized Russia Empire ironically might fulfill many of communism accusations of capitalism. Urbanization would see the creation of a massive urban poor working class in Russia who might be mostly living in slums or poor conditions. This will increase revolutionary activities greatly. Russia under a Tsar regime is probably very slow at reforming and when it does it will sometimes reverse it later on. Power and wealth could be very centralized by the Tsar and his top men which will create issues. Also industry might be influenced heavily by foreign investors and interest. Being industrialize does not always relate to stability, improving living conditions, or even a great military. An industrial imperial Russia likely has worse living conditions. The military could be poorly trained or organized and funded with cheap weapons/equipments so Russia can at least arm as many troops as possible. A better trained, equipped, and organized German military could still beat them even if they are smaller in numbers and especially with allies. Russia has to manage itself well to use its resources to the fullest. The Tsar of Russia might be more inclined towards authoritative reform over democratic reform. Honestly, the reason the Tsar regime did not become as brutal and harsh as the Soviets in otl is probably due to time, location, and ability. The Tsar regime could become just as brutal as the Soviets depending on how thing develop.

We should use perspective here. Much of the atrocities of the last century wasn’t anything new or even worse then before. The last century just seems worse in atrocities and death rates due to the large increase in human population and better technology. Percentage wise death rates and atrocities actually decreased greatly in many ways when compared to the past centuries. In this pod Russia is going to have a much larger population and might be more unstable. A Tsar regime might end up sending people to gulags in Siberia like the Soviets did in otl. Ethnic cleansing, force population transfers, and pogroms could still happen with a imperial Russia. People underestimate the cultural change the Soviets had. For the Soviets many flaws it arguable had its successes at pushing Russia forward as a power and did a few things better then the Tsar. Otherwise they would have not gotten as far as they did.

This could create border issues for Germany. The Russian Empire was not as strict on emigration as the USSR. This might mean a lot of Jews, Poles, and other Slavs trying to move to Germany if conditions are poor in Russia. They can’t as easily restrict it like the US or UK can. Austria-Hungary might face the same issue as Germany but it could destabilize their country more. Ethnic Russians will be much higher in percentage and raw numbers then otl depending on when the next conflict happens. There birth rates are going to be much higher and otl population loss removed. Comparing 1914 Russian birth rates to Western Europe in 1914 is almost like comparing current Middle Eastern ones to the US. Communism did improve the position of women there. But the advantage of this is a lot of areas become very hard to separate from Russia as time goes on if they still end up lose a great war to Germany or fall to revolution if not both. Central Asia could become solid Russian majority in many areas so could parts of Ukraine. Belarus could be fully Russian. This means the only practical new nations that can get independence from a unstable Russia is Poland, Finland, and the Baltic States(but with much larger Russian minorities).

 

[RodentRevolution]

keep seeing some comments about Russia continued growth but wouldn’t this defeat cause a 1905 level revolution?

The short answer is not nearly as likely.

A longer answer is the performance of Russian armies in the early part of the war was overall satisfactory. Yes there was that major screw up in East Prussia but the German's first counterattack thereafter was rebuffed and in fact German troops only narrowly squeaked out of losing a numbered field army as captive themselves. Meanwhile performance against the KuK Army was very good. Given in this scenario it is France who goes down overall the Tsar and his advisers would likely be seen to have done their job and also given a short war the stresses on Russian society in general would not have time to build up to revolutionary levels. It is entirely possible the Russians would be quite pleased with their part in the war.