Brock surviving is the best POD.
Others include
A British victory at Sacketts harbour removing supplies and the General Pike from US ship building efforts there (easily accomplished by attacking on the first day).
A British victory on lake Erie (have Perry die and thus not be able to bring the other big ship into action or have the Britsih catch the Americans as they were lifting their ships over the sand bar).
Proctor can do better in his theatre (although it will be for nought if Put-In-Bay goes as OTL, still it would probably keep the Americans out of Canada from the west).
The shell which landed in the Fort Henry powder magazine explodes and destroys Fort Henry leading to a successful British assault on Baltimore.
Have a British victory on Lack Champlain (either by the wind being more advantageous, the British getting an extra week to prepare or Prevost pushing at Plattsburg) which leads to a British victory at Plattsburg.
Just about any of these result in Uti Possidetis with that having a varying level of territory being transferred based upon the scenario.
Others include
A British victory at Sacketts harbour removing supplies and the General Pike from US ship building efforts there (easily accomplished by attacking on the first day).
A British victory on lake Erie (have Perry die and thus not be able to bring the other big ship into action or have the Britsih catch the Americans as they were lifting their ships over the sand bar).
Proctor can do better in his theatre (although it will be for nought if Put-In-Bay goes as OTL, still it would probably keep the Americans out of Canada from the west).
The shell which landed in the Fort Henry powder magazine explodes and destroys Fort Henry leading to a successful British assault on Baltimore.
Have a British victory on Lack Champlain (either by the wind being more advantageous, the British getting an extra week to prepare or Prevost pushing at Plattsburg) which leads to a British victory at Plattsburg.
Just about any of these result in Uti Possidetis with that having a varying level of territory being transferred based upon the scenario.