War of 1812 is avoided, later potential of American annexation?

I have been working on my TL Victoire De La République, and one topic I have struggled with is Canada. With no Napoleon (dies in 1799 during his coup), the War of 1812 doesn't occur. The Federalists still dominate up to 1820, thus avoiding any war.

My question is: will America go to war later on with Britain over Canada? What will be potential effects? From my research, it seems that a lot of American settlers went to Upper Canada for, well, settlement. This was snuffed out in 1812 when they were pushed back to America. So, no War of 1812, meaning American settlers still pour into Canada. Can a Texas like scenario thus form? Would like to hear y'all's thoughts on this.
 
There were a lot of American settlers, but Britain was very choosy about who they were.

You wanted to work land and not rock the boat? Come on in!
Did you do anything to disrupt the status quo like question the crown or start a newspaper? Back to America.
 
By then they'd be Canadians

Depends on what part of Canada you're talking about. There's quite large chunks of it that don't have sufficent density of loyal, culturally dynamic Anglo-Canadians to put the nessicery assimilation pressure on any American settlers even initially, much less if the Americans come in sufficent numbers to become the majority.
 
There is absolutely potential, but it's probably not much higher than OTL. It just requires the US to go to war with Britain and win, which is entirely possible but not enormously probable, at least until the likelihood of a war happening at all drops.
 

SsgtC

Banned
I'm not sure if all of Canada would be annexed, but with no War of 1812, I feel pretty certain that at least parts of it would. One thing that the American invasion did was to begin forming a coherent Canadian national identity when Canadians united to repel the invaders. Butterfly that away and I think most people in Canada would continue to identify as either British, French or American. I don't think annexation would happen by 1820, but would be very likely by the 1840s or 1850s
 
I can't see Lower Canada joining the U.S., and I doubt a lot of Americans would be comfortable incorporating a largely French-speaking, Catholic population. Upper Canada, on the other hand would be doable.
 
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Upper Canada can most definitely be annexed by osmosis without the War of 1812. When the war came, it was reaching a point where Upper Canada was almost more Americans than British in the demographics of the population living there. Without large-scale animosity brought on by a war, I think it's not only possible but likely that Upper Canada would be annexed.

Maybe William Lyon Mackenzie's Upper Canada Rebellion of 1837 succeeds with more than, say, 30%-50% of the population being of American extraction. That leaves the West wide open for the US, while Lower Canada (Quebec) ironically becomes the heart of British North America.
 
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Upper Canada can most definitely be annexed by osmosis without the War of 1812. When the war came, it was reaching a point where Upper Canada was almost more Americans than British in the demographics of the population living there. Without large-scale animosity brought on by a war, I think it's not only possible but likely that Upper Canada would be annexed.

Maybe William Lyon Mackenzie's Upper Canada Rebellion of 1837 succeeds with more than, say, 30%-50% of the population being of American extraction. That leaves the West wide open for the US, while Lower Canada (Quebec) ironically becomes the heart of British North America.

The ones migrating weren't exactly American die hards, they were "generally" loyalists or apolitical who were interested in free land. They aren't going to rise up out of the blue, especially since without the war to galvanize Canadian opinion against republican ideals there probably isn't the hard push against America as there was in OTL.

It probably looks a lot like OTL. I could envision a world where it does happen, but it probably isn't the most likely scenario by a long shot.
 

SsgtC

Banned
The ones migrating weren't exactly American die hards, they were "generally" loyalists or apolitical who were interested in free land. They aren't going to rise up out of the blue, especially since without the war to galvanize Canadian opinion against republican ideals there probably isn't the hard push against America as there was in OTL.

It probably looks a lot like OTL. I could envision a world where it does happen, but it probably isn't the most likely scenario by a long shot.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't most loyalists move to the Maritimes?
 
The ones migrating weren't exactly American die hards, they were "generally" loyalists or apolitical who were interested in free land. They aren't going to rise up out of the blue, especially since without the war to galvanize Canadian opinion against republican ideals there probably isn't the hard push against America as there was in OTL.

It probably looks a lot like OTL. I could envision a world where it does happen, but it probably isn't the most likely scenario by a long shot.

Forgive me if I am wrong, as my Canadian history is quite poor, but weren't the Canadians annoyed by the oligarchic system in place at the time? I'd imagine that the American settlers would be quite dissatisfied with such a system. This could promote resentment in Canada, thus increasing republican ideals somewhat. If the British don't respond properly to the crisis and give Canada democratic reforms and a local government, then this could lead to a "Republic of Upper Canada" that joins the United States, similar to Texas of OTL.

Of course, I am quite rough with my Canadian history, so feel free to criticize my reply.
 
Forgive me if I am wrong, as my Canadian history is quite poor, but weren't the Canadians annoyed by the oligarchic system in place at the time? I'd imagine that the American settlers would be quite dissatisfied with such a system. This could promote resentment in Canada, thus increasing republican ideals somewhat. If the British don't respond properly to the crisis and give Canada democratic reforms and a local government, then this could lead to a "Republic of Upper Canada" that joins the United States, similar to Texas of OTL.

Of course, I am quite rough with my Canadian history, so feel free to criticize my reply.

There won't be as much resentment because the elites won't double down on the system without the war. The war pretty much solidified the opinions of the ruling class that republican ideals weren't to be trusted. Without the war to galvanize the opinion of the elites, they won't be pushing back as hard against the incremental reform taking place.

Even if that doesn't happen, there won't be a flood of American settlers, there will be a steady trickle that will be dwarfed by immigration from Britain. The extra numbers won't cause a spontaneous uprising any more than OTL because for the most part things were pretty okay in Upper Canada. You would need more domestic support, more suport from the USA and a Britain that couldn't put the whole thing down at its leisure.
 
American settlers, if they came in too high numbers, would immediately be noted by Britain which would restrict immigration. Furthermore, I must note that many descendants of so-called “New Loyalists”, such as Laura Secord, allied with Britain.

You have the potential for a BNA that is even more Americanized and slightly larger Rebellions of 1837-1838 (which were really riots - Britain confusingly called a massive rebellion a “Mutiny”, and a riot a “Rebellion”), but that’s not saying much.
 
Canadian identity is far more weaker. The War of 1812 is huge for the Canadian national psyche. 1812 was the birth of the Canadian national identity. The whole Canadian identity is basically born from a very strong desire to not be Americans.

We're likely see an Spanish-American War in the 1820s.

Besides that, its possible for America to gain the OTL Pacific coast of Canada. With that, we see an Canada divide between at least 3 Dominions and more regional differences and Canada focused more on Montreal - St. Lawrence - Toronto.
 
Forgive me if I am wrong, as my Canadian history is quite poor, but weren't the Canadians annoyed by the oligarchic system in place at the time? I'd imagine that the American settlers would be quite dissatisfied with such a system. This could promote resentment in Canada, thus increasing republican ideals somewhat. If the British don't respond properly to the crisis and give Canada democratic reforms and a local government, then this could lead to a "Republic of Upper Canada" that joins the United States, similar to Texas of OTL.

Of course, I am quite rough with my Canadian history, so feel free to criticize my reply.

Not really. Most rejected the idea of republicanism pretty much outright, seeing it as treason to the Crown, King and Country, and to Canada. And again, it is fill with Royalists from the former 13 Colonies.

Would the lack of an War of 1812 greatly weaken Canadian identity? Yes in every way, but Republicanism will simply never catch on in Canada. It would be like the 1837 rebllion. It was over the lack of political reform, and more of an speed bump then anything else.
 
American settlers, if they came in too high numbers, would immediately be noted by Britain which would restrict immigration. Furthermore, I must note that many descendants of so-called “New Loyalists”, such as Laura Secord, allied with Britain.
British North America in the early 1800s was in absolutely no position to restrict immigration. The border at the time was less than swiss cheese, it was reverse swiss cheese where there's more holes than there is border. Most of the American settlers who came in to Upper Canada just picked up sticks, went north, and settled down on unoccupied land. Sure, they had to swear an oath of loyalty to the Crown, but if American settlers kept coming to Canada at pre-1812 rates, then there would be so many of them saturating the population that an oath to the Crown would be completely ineffective in keeping the American settlers 'docile' in the event of a revolution or secessionist movement or so on.

Of course, not every American who moves to Canada will be disgruntled enough or a committed republican enough to aid and abet a republican revolution backed by the US, as you've pointed out, but I think you're severely overestimating the capabilities of BNA's administration.

On a semi-related note, I think the thread should start specifying between United Empire Loyalists (pro-British Americans who moved to BNA, overwhelmingly to the Maritimes, following the American Revolution) and Anti-Republican Loyalists (The TTL group of mostly Upper Canada based Americans who will not participate in a rebellion against BNA if one occurs)
 
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