War of 1807

Better off in that Napoleon has just initiated his Continental system and the Peninsula War is about to distract Britain so the US has a couple extra campaigning seasons to get its act together before British reinforcements arrive.
 
US army smaller and weaker than in 1812(!), US navy doesn't even have what ships existed in service, British have an extra few years to pound away. Extremely bad for the US.
 
Better off in that Napoleon has just initiated his Continental system and the Peninsula War is about to distract Britain so the US has a couple extra campaigning seasons to get its act together before British reinforcements arrive.

Unless I'm mistaken wasn't 1807 when the Third Coalition War was winding down? And the Peninsular War wouldn't kick off until 1809, right?

So a non-distracted Britain with a smaller US Army... well I don't think they'd outright annex us, but they'd probably declare the Lousiana Purchase null and void and maybe carve an Indian Nation from around the Great Lakes.
 
US army smaller and weaker than in 1812(!), US navy doesn't even have what ships existed in service, British have an extra few years to pound away. Extremely bad for the US.

On the other hand, Sir Isaac Brock hasn't been fortifying Canada.

Let the blind lead the blind!
 
I believe the Peninsula War kicked off in 1807 the Brits became involved in 1808. The Royal Navy will only be able to send about 12 sols across the Atlantic. The USN has the same ships in 1807 that it has in 1812 just most aren't worn down and useless. So we have a stronger USN.
 
The British only committed about 15,000 troops to the Peninsula War at first iirc. It wasn't until about late 1809 to 1811 that they really started sending more and more regiments in. That leaves plenty of troops to commit to America.
 
The US however has only just finished the 1st Barbary War so its ships from that will be in better condition, crews and veterans more recently active

Oh bugger it, having problems typing

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Also note that New England will likely be more supportive of the war effort in this case than in OTL (a war precludes any embargo). As such, one would likely see the US take a more traditional invasion route up through Lake Champlain and along the Richelieu River into Lower Canada. This, however, does nothing to rectify the dismal condition of the army and its commanders (Winfield Scott hadn't even been commissioned yet as of 1807).

Moreover, the US would be better positioned financially - the First Bank of the US still in existence.

Another interesting point is whether or not a war of this magnitude might convince Jefferson to abandon convention and run for a third term. Otherwise, depending on the conduct of the campaigns in Canada and the war on the high seas, Madison will likely succeed Jefferson in 1808.
 
So it's possible that UK, distracted by it's war with US, doesn't intervene in the peninsular war. Then Spain and Portugual are firmly in Napoleon's camp, without the bleeding ulcer.

What would be the effect of this on later Napoleon's wars?
 
The British wouldn't back out of the Peninsula War. The threat from Napoleon was far worse than the threat from the US. They would simply not be able to commit as many troops as fast. But they still had plenty of free regiments to send to both theatres.
 
Ulcerated underbelly?

Then Spain and Portugual are firmly in Napoleon's camp, without the bleeding ulcer

Why? The Spanish Ulcer would still have ulcerated Napoleons soft belly in Spain. Many troops would still be needed to tie down the affected areas where the uprisings occured. This was by no means the first anti-invader uprising, but it was the one that gave wing to the ideal that you do not accept the tyrants boot on your neck - who ever you are, and whoever the tyrant is. Spain for the Spanish and all that. Sure the war was successfull with the British (and allied) army to provide an anchor; but that anchor was set in shifting sands. The British army was never in occupation in all areas of Spain, indeed for many months of the conflict, it wasn't even IN Spain. Many deride the performance of the Spanish army, but like any army bereft of a central command, and denied its own logistical, training, and traditional base, it struggled. However, it succeded where the Prussians did not in 1807, it bested the Austrian defences of 1809, and came half way as close to the success the Russians had in 1812. Sure they got beat whenever they stood, but they stood time and time again. A better result than the Americans had in the war of 1812, when the USA retained their central command and control, logistics and traditional base. A better result than could be expected for a headless collection of a multiplicity of field commands. Now add the effect of the British and allied army, and the war based on "interior lines" and you will have an ulcer, big or small, it's going to hurt!
 
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