War Memorandun (eastern) an Anglo Japanese naval conflict.

I have just started reading a book about Royal naval planning for a conflict with Japan in the interwar period, and its fascinating stuff.

Im only a quarter of the way through but the basics of the plan are as follows. Use in place forces to protect trade, until the main fleet arrives (40-90 days being the assumption), then using cruisers attack Japanese trade to draw out the main Japanese fleet for a descive battle. (the assumption being once a numerically superior british fleet arrives the Japanese would be wary of a large engagement). Once the Japanese fleet is destroyed, its open season on Japanese trade and the Japan would sue for peace. As I said this is only the basics.

Anyway say a conflict occurs in the 1928-1934 timeframe, could this plan work? If not how would the conflict have played out? Also what POD would be needed for a conflict.
 
If the entire RN battle line (and all available carriers) are sent, yes, the plan probably works in that time period.

But can the RN really send its entire battle line halfway around the world? Technically and logistically, sure, but is such a deployment possible politically?

Offhand, I can't think of any circumstances in which Home Fleet AND Med Fleet would be reduced to cruisers - there just isn't anything THAT valuable in the Far East.

If only part of the RN battle line is sent, the question becomes 'how much?' Half, say, almost certainly isn't enough unless they resurrect and retrain Nelson to command the fleet.
 
If the entire RN battle line (and all available carriers) are sent, yes, the plan probably works in that time period.

But can the RN really send its entire battle line halfway around the world? Technically and logistically, sure, but is such a deployment possible politically?

Offhand, I can't think of any circumstances in which Home Fleet AND Med Fleet would be reduced to cruisers - there just isn't anything THAT valuable in the Far East.

If only part of the RN battle line is sent, the question becomes 'how much?' Half, say, almost certainly isn't enough unless they resurrect and retrain Nelson to command the fleet.

Well from what I have read the intial 1922-1925 planning had 5 QE class, 4 Iron Duke class Battleships plus all (3? not sure of the number at this time),battlecruisers going east leaving 5 R class to cover the Atlantic. obvisually this changes as numbers fluctuate, but 12 capital ships still should outnumber the Japanese fleet.

I suppose if there is a conflict, in the long run Britain can outproduce the Japanese and of course whilst the RN can hit Japanese Merchant shipping hard, the vital british trade routes are too far away for the Japanese to do the same.

As for the logistics, it was planned out, how much fuel was required etc (a hell of a lot) and they had started to stockpile it.
 
but 12 capital ships still should outnumber the Japanese fleet.

The IJN had 9 BB/BC for most of that time period; 4:3 isn't the sort of ratio you want to take bets on - especially if your last fleet action was called "Jutland." Raw numbers aren't the whole story, however. The IJN line would have been several knots faster and had a slight range edge on the RN even on paper. The IJN are operating closer to their home base(s), so you can expect their actual material condition to be closer to their theoretical performance. Etc. etc. etc.

Again, if the RN actually sends all or almost all of its fleet, yes, barring extraordinary events they will win in the stated time period. Again, yes, they have the technical and logistical means to send their entire fleet if they choose to. I can even tell you where they'd be based without needing any research at all.

But will the politicians who run things at the level such decisions are made choose to send enough? Or will they write off Jutland and think back to the old days when 1:1 in hulls gave high odds of an RN victory against any foe?
 
Does Britain have to send the whole fleet?

If the Japanese don't take Singapore, they starve and run out of oil.
 
Britain can send the entire RN if they desire, there simply isnt an European naval threat in this time period.

The Japanese would also having to be keeping one eye on the USN, just in case...

However an issue for the RN is range of its ships. It may just devolve into a sub/trade war against Japan if it proves too difficult to get the ships where they are needed.

In any long run, Japan is just as much toast as it was in OTL WW2, the economic imbalance is actually worse as the Empire has no other comittments. Can't see it coming to that, though, at that point in time neither country is committed to all out final destruction of the other, there arent big enough issues at stake.
 
The problem is that I can't see Japan surrendering on its own. Post-Okinawa, with B-29s burning cities at will, on the verge of starvation... their proposal to get Russian mediation entailed the creation of an independent buffer state in Manchuria.

That sort of delusion... I don't know. My guess is Japan starves and gets strangled, and then Stalin snaffles up East Asia.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
In the pre-1933 time period, Manchuria and the Rape of Nanking have not happened. The USA has a much better relationship with Japan than in the late 1930's.

The real key is the reaction of the USA. The USA is not going to look favorably on a second trade war than harms USA interests. The USA will want to make profits by selling goods and oil to Japan, and goods to the UK. Depending on the diplomatic moves of Japan and the UK, and depending upon USA public opinion, we might enter the war on either side. The USA fleet would prove decisive for either side. Also, Canada is very vulnerable against plan red, even with the Home Fleet in the UK. With the home fleet in Singapore, in Dry Dock, or on the bottom of the Ocean, Halifax will fall quickly.

The UK is too weakened by WW1 to fight major wars unilaterally. The size of the interwar navy is roughly the size of the losses of the Royal navy in WW1. Morale is low, and Naval Mutiny is not uncommon. The British governments are pro-appeasement. The mostly likely outcome is appeasement by the UK to Japan, just as the UK did little as Japan conquered China.

The BBC recently did a documentary on War Plan Crimson. The British Plan was to appease the USA by giving us most of Canada, and trying to keep Halifax.
 

I agree with Blondie BC that the US reaction is the most critical. However, it is difficult to speculate on what that reaction might be without more context; how did the war between the UK and Japan start, who was perceived by the US to be the agressor, what is the scope of the war, etc.

From a Bismarckian real-politic position, the USN can sit happily in San Diego and watch the other two big navies bash each other to pieces...

Mike Turcotte
 
The problem is that I can't see Japan surrendering on its own. Post-Okinawa, with B-29s burning cities at will, on the verge of starvation... their proposal to get Russian mediation entailed the creation of an independent buffer state in Manchuria.

That sort of delusion... I don't know. My guess is Japan starves and gets strangled, and then Stalin snaffles up East Asia.

You don't need someone to surrender to end a war. Most wars end in a negotiated peace.

What are the objectives of each country? Assuming Japan is the aggressor, all Britain would need to do is 1) keep all current British possessions, and 2) if possible, take some islands currently occupied by the Japanese to prevent further Japanese aggression.

Obstensibly, taking Taiwan and perhaps some minor Pacific islands (Palua? Saipan?) would do the trick. I would say Truk, but it's probably too heavily defended.

The main danger to Japan is loss of any colonial privileges in China. Losses there is going to eliminate its main potential area of future expansion.

Once Japan loses its naval offensive capability, it is going to quickly make peace. The longer it would wait, the more the British might take in the Pacific.

Major advantage of Britain is that they'd be supported by all the other major naval powers at the time. They may not go to war with Japan, but they could give intelligence, agree to pick up other British naval responsibilities to free up forces, and put increased diplomatic pressure.
 
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