- The northern endeavour does seem like a good PoD, but I don't see Norway joining the war against us. We can be as dickish as we like (we weren't really that scrupulous OTL), but we still hold that merchant navy of their hostage.
- I agree that the instinct to bomb Baku arose from the Chamberlain government's own pro-Fasict prejudices: there has been a lot of resume-padding ever since, which I consider deeply unBritish as it implies feelings about our leadership other than vague cynicism.
That was
why there was a policy of appeasement, and you need only look at some of the rhetoric to come from some of them to see that a lot of the stuff said today about "overestimation of German military strength" and "a desire for peace" were secondary concerns at best. Halifax basically said "What the Nazis are doing is okay and cool, as long as its dirty Bolsheviks on the receiving end" somewhere in 1933-4, IIRC. The possibility of an eventual war with the Soviets - possibly hand-in-hand with the Germans - may well have been in the future for the more stridently ideological school of appeaser (there
were misled individuals who just wanted to be chums, but most of them, like "pretty much all of Labour", saw that this was impossible before September 1939). When war with the Germans had finally been forced on Chamberlain, it was only natural that he'd see the resource shipments and itch to strike at the "true enemy" in the process.
Remember that we underestimated the Soviets quite badly. Our estimate for organised Soviet resistance in June 1941 was six weeks, and the BBC was ordered not to give any more hopeful impressions in broadcasting. I like to use this to illustrate the delightful old British pessimism (and the fatalism that had come over the war effort by this point which meant that Britain wasn't going to surrender the second Malta fell or whatever), but it also indicates a bad misreading of Soviet capability which could invite disaster.
- With regard to what actually happens, well, I can't see so very much changing for a bit. Finland probably gets squashed eventually, which will be a boon for the Soviets if/when the Soviet-German war hits. Baku will prick the Soviets, but the lesson of the war was that the bomber wasn't all its cracked up to be and you can't bomb an industrial centre out of use, nor bomb a people into submission, without any land forces following. And it's not like we'll be overflowing with resources after France falls.
A bigger commitment to the north might mean we dragoon Norway, which probably works against us in the grand scheme of things. Less easy co-operation from that merchant fleet, and all the Norwegian occupation force ever did was sit there and not fight the Red Army. Now, the German invasion of Norway being
decisively foiled, that would be a major score for us, but it's probably just not going to happen.
Since Stalin is going to be just as wary of the Germans and, as OA says, perhaps even more paranoid, I don't think much will happen in the mid-east. The Soviets can occupy as much of Iran as they did OTL, and probably some more, as supply lines and commitments elsewhere favour them hugely over us. They
might infringe on Iraq, but to me, decisive commitment to Iran (which is likely to mean Britain is decisively chased out), extension of operations to Iraq, and possible war with Turkey is just too much for a Stalin conscious of German strength to load onto his plate. Attacking across Afghanistan into India is simply a British fantasy of the Crimean War.
- The real danger for this scenario, I think, is the possible effects on British domestic developments. Best case scenario: major fuck-ups against both dictators allow Clem to take over and pursue a pragmatic policy with the aim of defeating the Nazis. British-Soviet war wound down by both sides. German attack on Soviets met with more effective resistance (and no Axis Finland helps too) and serves as the signal for Britain and the Soviets to bury the hatchet. Less lend-lease, probably, but then the Soviets will be in a much better position to start off with.
But that is the
best case scenario. Winnie may take over after *Dunkirk on a platform of Nevah Surrendah to Anyone Evah and persist in a three-way war, which I think means eventual Nazi defeat, but with more blood, sweat, toil, and tears than OTL all round; for us, anyway.
And I don't think Halifax deciding that the bitter accomodation has to be made with Hitler and not Stalin is impossible, either.
(My calculations are based on America still making war against Hitler eventually, which in my more optimistic scenarios seems likely. Lord knows what Japan will get up to.)
