War between US and SA country, 1930s

The Vulture

Banned
I was idly looking at the Rainbow War Plans when War Plan Purple caught my eye, which provides for a conflict between the United States and any given South American country.

This got me to thinking as to how the United States might end up at war with a South American country in the 1930s. What POD would we need? What kind of crisis would push the US into war with, say, Chile or Brazil? Given the isolationism of the era, it'd have to be worth our while or in retaliation for something crazy.

On a second point, how would such a war be conducted? I imagine the Navy and Marines would do much of the heavy lifting in such a scenario. Might this lead to an earlier building of aircraft carrier theory?
 
Look up the United Fruit Company or the Banana Wars. The US spent a fair amount of time earlier in the century messing around with Central America and the Caribbean.

It would probably be easier to continue those conflicts than to restart them, and you probably want someone besides FDR being POTUS.

As for the isolationism... might not be too bad. The US regarded the Americas as their... can't think of a good word. Their sphere of influence is the closest I can manage.

There were border incidents with Mexico, Fascist and Communist movements in many of the Central and South American countries, trade disputes... and there's always the possibility of an incident in which one or more US citizens are killed blowing up. Any of these could be used as a pretext for war.

Carriers wouldn't be much use. The USMC will play a big role (they did much of the heavy lifting in the Banana Wars), but the combined navies of everyone else in the Americas (excluding the European territories) couldn't stand up to the OTL USN, or even pose much of a threat, and naval air strikes on shore targets were in their infancy. Any advancements are going to be in land doctrine and weapons.
 

The Vulture

Banned
Yes, I am extremely interested in the Banana Wars and our involvement in the Caribbean, which is why I specifically limited discussion to South America. Because geographically, it's all exactly the same and there's no differences whatsoever between knocking over Sandino and going to war with Vargas or Alessandri in a larger country.
 
Yes, I am extremely interested in the Banana Wars and our involvement in the Caribbean, which is why I specifically limited discussion to South America. Because geographically, it's all exactly the same and there's no differences whatsoever between knocking over Sandino and going to war with Vargas or Alessandri in a larger country.

You asked what kind of crisis might cause the US to get involved in S. America. I think that a crisis which got the US involved in a C. American country IOTL is a reasonable place to look for the kind of crisis that would get the US involved in a S. American country.

As far as the US of the 1930's is concerned, they AREN'T that different. As far as their military capabilities... if you need $1,000, does it really matter whether you have $0.01 or $1.00? Can the average citizen of the US in the 1930s tell you the military capabilities and economic state of Brazil any better than Haiti? They're all 'down south there.'

To the State Department, there's a big difference. To Congress, there's probably some difference. To the POTUS there may or may not be a difference (there was to FDR - you'll note I suggested getting rid of him). To the senior officers of the military, there's some difference.

To the average Joe in the street? No.
 
You asked what kind of crisis might cause the US to get involved in S. America. I think that a crisis which got the US involved in a C. American country IOTL is a reasonable place to look for the kind of crisis that would get the US involved in a S. American country.

As far as the US of the 1930's is concerned, they AREN'T that different. As far as their military capabilities... if you need $1,000, does it really matter whether you have $0.01 or $1.00? Can the average citizen of the US in the 1930s tell you the military capabilities and economic state of Brazil any better than Haiti? They're all 'down south there.'

To the State Department, there's a big difference. To Congress, there's probably some difference. To the POTUS there may or may not be a difference (there was to FDR - you'll note I suggested getting rid of him). To the senior officers of the military, there's some difference.

To the average Joe in the street? No.

Don't be too sure of this. Oh, I agree that very few Americans in say 1934 could list the Argentinian Army TO&E. But 'very few' is not the same as 'none', and those that do will broadcast it. If a war starts going after a 'big' SA power - Brazil or Argentina, say, then the forces available to the US in 1934 will not be sufficient. A build up will have to occur. That will give the opponent time to mobalize as well (yes, the USN will blockade the country, preventing foreign (ie Nazi Germany or Soviet Russia) help). Once that build up becomes plain, the stakes of the war will as well. At that point, even the most uninformed will have some knowledge of what is going on - and what price will be paid.

Additionally, you have to look to the country the USA is fighting. Any conflict with America can have only one outcome, and Vietnam hasn't happened yet, and CNN isn't there either. It is - difficult - for me to imagine anyone in South America in the 1930s willing engaging the USA in conflict. And should war be declared, it is difficult to imagine that country not seeking peace.

Mike Turcotte.
 
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