War and Peace: pre-TL discussion

Than you only have to find a way to place Niel as reformer into the slot of minister of war. Perhaps some operation going really foul due to the organsation of the French army? Or Nappy having a falling out with Randon over some minor point? The intervention of Mexico begun in December 61 so you can surely find a POD there. But MExican history is way out of my expertise, so for now can´t help you any more. Still, I´m looking forward for your timeline and should the discussion return to fields I know about, I will voice my opinions. Good luck.
 
In my plans, Grant is captured or killed at Shiloh; and Butler becomes commander of the Army of the James as in OTL. For the Virginia campaign of 1864, I hesitate between two choices:
- replace Meade by Hancock;
- give to Hancock an overall command as for Grant in OTL.
What would be the strategic choices of Hancock?

Grant dies at Shiloh, then General Buell orders a retreat of the US Army of the Tennessee, and that in itself butterflies away the rest of the Civil War immensely. The CSA has *a* greater chance in the West, and knowing Buell and how McClellan-like he was in too many ways, he'd probably withdraw the Army of the Tennessee all the way to Louisville and blame Halleck for everything. A Union defeat at Shiloh alters the course of the war in major ways. The best case is that Lincoln decides to appoint George Thomas to command the Army of the Tennessee, but that just means the USA wins anyway, with fewer battles and more efficiently.

By the time of 1864, the war would be very different and with it the Presidential Election.
 
I'm working on a TL that I will post within some months.
The TL is already planned until the 1890's. The POD is a Conservative victory in the Reform War.
But I need help on some points.
First, the ACW.
In this TL, I planned the death of E.K. Smith at the first battle of Bull Run.
Thus, Beauregard is sent in East Tennessee in earlier 1862.
Consequently, Columbus is besieged by Pope instead of Island Number Ten.
A.S. Johnston is more successfull at Shiloh. The siege of Corinth is delayed and Pope is killed or remains in Tennessee, but is not sent in Virginia.
In Virginia, the Peninsular Campaign goes as in OTL, but the Northern Virginia Campaign is less disastrous than in OTL for the Union as Burnside is named to command the Army of Virginia.
In september, the Maryland Campaign occures as in OTL, and still ends into a Union victory. Thereafter, Hooker become the commander of the Army of the Potomac, and he uses the winter to reorganize.
In earlier spring 1863, Hooker launches a new offensive into Virginia, using the strategy chosen in OTL by Burnside with more success in the beginning as he manages to cross the Rappahannock River before the arrival of Lee.
But the battle of North Anna is a disaster for Hooker (the ATL equivalent of Chancellorsville).
Lee launches in late spring his offensive into Pennsylvania. Stonewall Jackson is still alive, and Lee is more successfull than in OTL. Harrisburg is briefly occupied by Stuart. Jackson manages to win the battle of Gettysburg in extremis in just a day. Thereafter, Lee encounter Meade at the Pipe Creek Line. Meade manages to hold off the confederate assaults and Lee retreated into Virginia.
This is a summary of what I planned for the ACW. But I'm not sure about the events in the western theatre after the siege of Corinth in summer 1862, and in Virginia after the Pennsylvania campaign of spring-summer 1863.
My goal is to have McClellan elected president in 1864 and to have an armistice signed in summer or autumn 1865.
Suggestions?

I take it by this that he must survive the Battle of Pittsburg Landing, then? It would seem to me that a CS victory at Shiloh would alter the strategic picture of the entire war, butterflying away the campaigns of 1863 and 1864 in a recognizable sense. Antietam was a US strategic victory, tactically it was a defensive CS victory (well, given that Lee defeated every single US charge and preserved his entire army when a general who actually saw the battle would have destroyed Lee's army.....).

The Gettysburg Campaign was the result partially of Lee's idea to relieve pressure from the Siege of Vicksburg. If US troops have yet to take Corinth, the Virginia campaigns themselves will be different, as will be the momentum of the war. Too few butterflies here. The overall idea works, as the Union has fewer Western victories to counterbalance Lee slapping around the Virginia commanders, the butterflies aren't taken into account enough.
 
In my idea, I thought only to delay the siege of Vicksburg. My objective is to give to the Heartland Offensive more success. I see Beauregard replaced by Bragg on the request of Johnston.
 
In my idea, I thought only to delay the siege of Vicksburg. My objective is to give to the Heartland Offensive more success. I see Beauregard replaced by Bragg on the request of Johnston.

A Confederate victory at Shiloh prevents a US capture of Corinth and would more than delay a siege of Vicksburg.
 
For TTL, I've decided to have independant CSA.
To achieve this goal, McClellan must be elected in 1864; a situation that could favor McClellan would be a CSA being in a better situation than they were during late OTL 1864.
A better stand of the Confederates in West, more than in Virginia, is in my opinion the only mean to reach the objective.
After having made searches about the ACW, the Heartland offensive has seemed to me a missed occasion that would have permit CSA to last longer.
I've understood than the lack of cooperation between Smith and Bragg was one of the main causes of the confederate failure.
I guess if a more cooperative general had led the Army of East Tennessee, an important victory would have been scored.
Bragg wished to take Nashville but was forced to follow Smith into Kentucky if I'm not wrong. Assume that this is achieved ITTL, Paducah seems logically the next target as it would remove, for some months at least, the threat of Union over Mississippi.
I guess too that the task of the Confederates would be made easier by the behaviour of Buell, a western McClellan it seems.
So, to eliminate Smith, we could make him mortally wounded at Bull Run. I think to Heth to replace him.

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The battle of Shiloh doesn't seem to me as important as the Heartland offensive, but the delay that a confederate victory would cause in the capture of Corinth (4 to 6 weeks) has to be not neglected.
In this purpose, keep Beauregard far from the battlefield of Shiloh is essential. Without him, so with Bragg as second-in-command of Johnston, the battle would have occured a day earlier, and the compact confederate columns would have destroyed the lines of Grant, while Buell would arrive too late.
However, I'm less sure about the behaviour of Johnston (if he survives) or of Bragg during the Corinth siege and if the Heartland offensive would still occur. Also, I've not decided the fate of Grant and Sherman among other.
I will wait to better evaluate the consequence of a CS victory at Shiloh.
As means to keep Beauregard away, I've thought to send him to East Tennessee, then to have him removed before the Heartland offensive, or to send him at Charleston instead of Pemberton who would remain loyal to Union.
A Confederate victory at Shiloh prevents a US capture of Corinth and would more than delay a siege of Vicksburg.
A CS victory would not prevent Halleck to come back with 100,000 men at least, and I doubt that Bragg or Johnston could halt them.

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An other idea I've had is to prevent Pope from going to East as I said in an early post:
In Virginia, the Peninsular Campaign goes as in OTL, but the Northern Virginia Campaign is less disastrous than in OTL for the Union as Burnside is named to command the Army of Virginia.
In september, the Maryland Campaign occures as in OTL, and still ends into a Union victory. Thereafter, Hooker become the commander of the Army of the Potomac, and he uses the winter to reorganize.
In earlier spring 1863, Hooker launches a new offensive into Virginia, using the strategy chosen in OTL by Burnside with more success in the beginning as he manages to cross the Rappahannock River before the arrival of Lee.
But the battle of North Anna is a disaster for Hooker (the ATL equivalent of Chancellorsville).
Lee launches in late spring his offensive into Pennsylvania. Stonewall Jackson is still alive, and Lee is more successfull than in OTL. Harrisburg is briefly occupied by Stuart. Jackson manages to win the battle of Gettysburg in extremis in just a day. Thereafter, Lee encounter Meade at the Pipe Creek Line. Meade manages to hold off the confederate assaults and Lee retreated into Virginia.
The Gettysburg Campaign was the result partially of Lee's idea to relieve pressure from the Siege of Vicksburg.
The Pennsylvania campaign (OTL Gettysburg campaign) could be a response to the renewal of the Union offensives in West, following the confederate reconquest of Tennessee.

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Other point: the blockade. After a Conservative victory during the mexican civil war (Reform War), I plan to have CSA using mexican ports to bypass the Union blockade. Is it possible? What would be the relations between CSA and Mexico during the TTL ACW? How would it affect the war?
 
Until now, I thought that Maximilian would be naturally the emperor that a regency council, created after the conservative victory during the Reform War, would chose.
However, I see that although France is likely to become their great ally in Europe, they wouldn't be forced to chose the candidate supported by Napoleon III.
Of course, Maximilian is an Habsburg, catholic, but he might appear too liberal for the Conservatives.
Have you other candidates?
I think that an iberian, catholic german or maybe bresilian princes could be suitable, but the situation in Italy makes me doubting that the House of Savoy would be liked by the mexican clergy.
 
I've made other searches on french politics during the IInd Empire.
I've decided to have Napoleon III and Empress Eugenie killed by Orsini. Thereafter, a quick and military intervention put down an attempt of revolution by republicans. Regency is entrusted firstly to Prince Jerome, only surviving brother of Napoleon I, then to his son, the nick-named Plon-Plon.
What consequences in your opinion?
 
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