War Aims of the Triple Entente in an early end to WWI

[DracoLazarus]

Let us suppose that for some reason the French manage to take the Thionville iron mines and retain Briey-Longwy early in the war. Starved of iron by the loss of their primary sources of iron ore, the German performance is much poorer, and as such the Triple Alliance asks for terms by Christmas as the Austrians and Germans get mauled by the Russian bear in the Eastern front, and in front of an unability to recover those sources of iron ore. This is only a scenario which is not necessarily plausible, but it doesn't matter.
What would have been the demands of the Entente had the war come to an end before 1914 was over ?

The way I see it, the most likely demands would have been France demanding Alsace-Lorraine outright, Serbia getting Bosnia, and Austria-Hungary losing Galicia-Lodomeria.

 

[Aphrodite]

This makes it a Franco-Russian affair. The small British army won't give the British much of a say at the table. It also means the victory will be crushing- the Germans wont be able to resist at all.

The Franco-Russian agreements called for each to be free to dictate whatever borders they wanted. France is likely to demand the Rhine. Its a nice, easily defended border and has lots of great mineral resources. The Germans living there might be given some autonomy or just encouraged/forced to move out. They might be happy since they wouldn't have to pay the reparations


The Russians are likely to demand the Oder at least. This removes the Polish salient and gives them warm water ports on the Baltic. Silesia is tempting because of the mines.

The former Danish provinces will be returned. Some heavily German populated regions might be excluded but the Tsar's mother was Danish and the Kiel Canal has to be neutralized

The British might get some colonies, a share of the indemnity and a third of the German fleet. She's going to be mad as hell but can't enforce any demands at all

The Russo-Austrian peace is hard to predict. The days of Hapsburg power will be over. The Passes and Bohemia will be Russian for sure. A puppet regime in Hungary is also possible

Sounds harsh but harsh it will be. If the Austro-Germans want better terms, they would have to do better on the battlefield.

Your OP is very plausible

 

[GauchoBadger]

Another factor to consider is the reaction of the Ottomans. If the war is won early but the Ottomans have joined on the CP side previously, then we could see Constantinople and the straits getting annexed by Russia, but that'd probably be the object of some French and British worry; thus, the western Entente could choose to weaken Germany a bit less to ensure that they stay as a deterrent to Russian ambition.

 

[DracoLazarus]

Another factor to consider is the reaction of the Ottomans. If the war is won early but the Ottomans have joined on the CP side previously, then we could see Constantinople and the straits getting annexed by Russia, but that'd probably be the object of some French and British worry; thus, the western Entente could choose to weaken Germany a bit less to ensure that they stay as a deterrent to Russian ambition.

We should have two scenarios
One where
A) The Ottomans haven't joined
B) The Ottomans have joined, but the Greeks joined too and took the Gallipolli peninsula.