War aims of a Berlin-Moscow Axis

Discussion in 'Alternate History Discussion: After 1900' started by weaverj, Feb 19, 2018.

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  1. weaverj Long Live King Ludvig!

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    Lets say that, somehow, the Non-Aggression Pact between Germany and the USSR evolves into an alliance. What would be the war goals of such an alliance?
     
  2. Achaemenid Rome Iron Age City-State

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    If that came to pass, then their main shared goal would be attacking the British Empire in the Middle East and India and attempting to partition British colonies and satellite states.
     
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  3. zeppelinair これ以上の詳細は略する

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    Take over continental Europe/Asia and prepare for war with the United States
     
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  4. Achaemenid Rome Iron Age City-State

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    How so? There is still Japan and Britain to go through.
     
  5. zeppelinair これ以上の詳細は略する

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    Well for whatever amphibious invasion that comes by, Britain/Japan can't take the brunt of the operation - I imagine it'd be the US, with them in assisting capacity
     
  6. Achaemenid Rome Iron Age City-State

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    Are you saying Berlin-Moscow Axis could pull off a successful Sealion, only stopped by the U.S.?
     
  7. zeppelinair これ以上の詳細は略する

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    nope, I meant any alternate D-Day couldn't happen without the US
     
  8. Achaemenid Rome Iron Age City-State

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    Assuming that in the process of creating this Berlin Moscow Axis TL, Strasser leads Germany instead of Hitler, and Stalin is the same, then I think an alternate D-Day wouldn't happen either way.

    Without the exhaustion of the Eastern Front and with the Soviet Union and Germany on the same side, Europe would be practically impossible to invade. If Strasserist Germany did fall from a one-front attack from the west, then a virtually unharmed Soviet Union building off of its OTL 1940 undamaged infrastructure would march in and take over the rest.

    The result may be like Nineteen Eighty-Four.
     
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  9. zeppelinair これ以上の詳細は略する

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    That's true, but it probably doesn't hurt to prepare for one
     
  10. Lalli Well-Known Member

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    Good POD could be that UK and France declare war to USSR due Winter War.

    So war aims are:

    - USSR and Germany divide East Europe like they deal on M-R treaty.
    . Germany takes Alsace-Lorraine.
    - Both try enforce United Kingdom to peace. I just can't see them to be able take anything from them.
    - And if Italy is against Germany, Germany might demand South Tyrol.
     
  11. Achaemenid Rome Iron Age City-State

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    If Nazi Germany allied with the USSR goes to war with Italy and wins, they may seek to incorporate the entire north of the country using the Holy Roman Empire as their excuse. Or if they are more conservative about it, they may still annex the "Operational Zones" created in 1943.
     
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  12. Jackson Lennock Well-Known Member

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    The Soviet Union gets the Baltics, Finland, the Kresy, Bialystok, and Bessarabia. Germany gets what's west of that.

    The USSR likely bullies the Turks into ceding Kars and Batumi and Finlandize the country.

    If Italy is anti-Germany, then the Germans retake Tyrol and perhaps Friuli as well. Slovenia and Istria likely are also Germany.

    In the west, I don't see why the Germans would stop at Alsace-Lorraine. A reversion to the Westphalian boundary plus an annexation of Calais. Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, Norway, and Denmark being directly annexed was part of Hitler's plans. Without Barbarossa, there'd likely be more focus on consolidation of Western gains.
     
  13. History Learner Well-Known Member

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    I'll repost something from another thread, with regards to a Strasserist-Soviet Alliance:

    First, in order to get a Soviet alliance you'd need to remove Stalin, who was notoriously paranoid of foreign factions not under his thumb and the Strasserists certainly wouldn't be; there are luckily more than enough ways to achieve this in the 20s, luckily. With that out of the way, I can't stress enough how much this axis changes the fundamental nature of the war. Access to the Soviet resource base and labor pool means Germany removes the biggest impediment to its IOTL buildup and running of its war machine, which was the critical, persistent shortage of raw materials and manpower. With the aforementioned resolved, the Germans would be able to build up much quicker and far more effectively, as well as keep production strong throughout the conflict. German technical knowledge and military expertise, meanwhile, will significantly boost the efficiency and productivity of Soviet industry and the combat capabilities of the Red Army. Further adding to their power is the extensive Soviet spy net which would be working in favor of this duopoly, which would certainly benefit their strategic actions as well as harm Allied(?) industrial efforts; guys like Klaus Fuchs can certainly sabotage the Manhattan Project, for example.

    To get an idea of what this would mean, according to Paul Kennedy's The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, the IOTL Axis Powers of Germany (14.4%), Japan (3.5%), and Italy (2.5%) held a combined total of 20.4% of the global warming potential in 1937. The Soviet Union, meanwhile, held an even 14% under the same conditions, meaning the starting base of this ATL Axis has at least 28.4% of the global warmaking ability, which is nearly a third greater than that of the OTL Axis even before you factor in the increased abilities of this alliance, which I think would definitely boost their combined total up to 30%. The U.S. (41.7%) and UK (10.2%), meanwhile, have a combined 51.9%, which remains the same in this ATL. It's now important to note that the historical Big Three of the U.S., UK, and Soviet Union with 65.9% of the global warmaking power took six years to defeat the Axis who had just 20.4%, or a third of their abilities; this ATL Axis of Germany and the Soviets are two thirds of the Anglo-Americans. To say the least, you're definitely looking at a long, costly war that will reach into the late 40s no matter what, likely until American industry can produce sufficient quantities of B-36s and nuclear weapons to begin nuclear bombardments, if Anglo-American political willpower doesn't break first.

    Now, with the base of the Alt-Axis covered, who else will join it and who won't? Well first, Imperial Japan is certainly out, as there is no real way to resolve the disputes between them and the Soviets and to that end it will be better for the Germans to just increase their relationship with the Chinese. To that end, you'll thus likely see an Allied Japan and an Axis China under the KMT, which will finish off the CCP before things kick off with the help of Stalin. Another is that Hungary will most likely side with the Alt-Axis, given they were willing to work with the Soviets IOTL 1940 to invade Hungary, as their interests don't exactly clash in the Balkans. The last one, that I'm reasonably sure of, is that the Axis will definitely make greater appeals to the colonial peoples as compared to IOTL, in particular the various Islamic ones they couldn't due to the Italians and Vichy, as well as the Indians thanks to Soviet connections with them. I definitely think Strasserism, with its similarities to Ba'athism, will play well in the Arab world. Outside of these three predictions, I'm not entirely sure and I think it could go either way.

    The first option is that, given the arrival of a Leftist alliance of a Strasserist Germany and the Soviet Union, the Stresa Front will be firmly welded together and its first real test will be supporting the Nationalists in Spain against the Axis-backed Republicans, who are more thoroughly dominated by Socialist elements as compared to OTL. In such a case, I can see the war ending sooner in a Nationalist victory, perhaps with Primo de Rivera in charge as opposed to Franco due to the Falangists fanatical Anti-Communism. Undoubtedly during this time, the Soviets will be using their agents to further stir up the Left-Right discord in France, which will most likely be ended by Petain and others stepping in with the military and forming a new Fascist government to control France. From this point forward, you thus get a Latin troika of three Fascist powers, aligned with first the UK and then the U.S. as well as Japan. Continued Italian support for Austria will prevent it from being absorbed by Germany, who will thus likely turn to sorting the Baltics out with the Soviets in the meantime while events in Spain are finished. Poland and Romania, with its fanatically Anti-Communist Iron Guard and under intense Soviet-Hungarian pressure, will grow close to the Allies. WWII will thus likely begin from a joint Axis attack upon those two nations which brings the rest in. Thus, the Second World War will be known as a conflict that saw Fascism and Capitalism unite to crush the Communists/Left-Nationalists, with the Japanese joining in for 1941 and the U.S. in 1942 in response to German submarine warfare.

    The second option is that the Stresa Front still breaks down, and that Italy still joins the Axis. In this case, Austria will be annexed by Germany in 1937 thanks to Soviet support while the Czechs will be dismembered in early 1938 without much ability of the West to intervene thanks again to the same Soviet support. The Nationalists will probably still win the Spanish Civil War, but this time most likely under Franco, in order to appease the Italians, and the Spanish will then join the Axis. The French still probably have a coup by the Military to stabilize the domestic situation, but they will certainly remain in the Allies due to the growing threat of the Axis. Early 1939 will see the Baltics sorted out by the Germans and the Soviets, almost certainly under the same lines of the original Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, with the Soviets taking Latvia and Estonia while dealing with the Finns while the Germans get Klaipedia and a Lithuanian puppet. Said puppet will then be used to set off the Second World War, in that it makes demands upon the Poles to give up Vilnius and such demands will doubtlessly be refused, resulting in an Axis invasion of Poland and Romania in late '39. From there, WWII occurs with the Japanese joining in 1940 and the Americans still waiting until '42 when German submarine provocations prove sufficient. WWII will certainly be a more confusing affair in the ATL future as reviewed by historical texts, due to obvious internal Fascist divide driven by Iron Guard Romania and Action Française in the Allies while Fascist Italy and Nationalist Spain in the Axis.
     
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  14. GohanLSSJ2 Peruvian Pan-Americanist

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    I like these ideas. I personally had similar ones myself...

    Mine, however, held the idea of Republican Spain surviving, the Revolution exploding as the CNT and other Libertarian Socialist factions successfully break the lines of the Fascists.

    The Stessa Front helds strong as Italy remaims stridently against Germany. In turn, this pushes them closer and closer to Britain and France. Same for Japan, as they realise in horror that joint German and Soviet support forces a compromise between the leftist elements of the KMT and the CCP (probably with Mao removed from the equation).

    The Strassers, while not genocidal monsters like Hitler, may still retain their anti-Semitic tendencie. However, the best German scientists are either sent to the USSR, or the newborn Libertarian Socialist Spain, as the Soviets see beyond their prejudice to the potential they can procure.

    Meanwhile, Austria falls to Fascism as the Fatherland Front gains power. However, with them are elements of what are the OTL Hitlerist Nazis, who desire a takeover of Austria to begin their own genocidal agenda. The turmoil escalates to violence, which pushes Hungary to the Soviet camp.

    The flashpoints of the war, I believe, would be the explosions of conflict erupting from Poland, Austria, Finland and lastly France, as they panic and attack the Soviets AND Germans, in hope of catching them off guard...
     
  15. Strategos' Risk Oriental Orientalist

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    lmao how about a Strasserist-Trotskyist alliance, after all Leon was all about united fronts and permanent revolutions even when they weren't quite the best idea
     
  16. History Learner Well-Known Member

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    Someone needs to photoshop an image of Otto and Trotsky touring an occupied London now.
     
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  17. Strategos' Risk Oriental Orientalist

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    A Strasser/Trotsky alliance just seems like it has so much alternate history fodder, since they were both the losers of their internecine struggles. Though wait why the Strasser bros, and not Rohm, as the fuhrer?
     
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  18. GohanLSSJ2 Peruvian Pan-Americanist

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    The Strassers, especially Otto, had a plan and formed their own ideological strain of National Socialism. Did Rohm had any particular thing going to him?

    Though... With Rohm as Fuhrer, we might see an NSDAP less hostile to LGBT folks, which might mean the preservation of the works of the Institute of Sex Research that was making headway into gay and trans issues...
     
  19. Jaenera Targaryen Dragonrider

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    Soviet Goals
    Europe: Stalin would want his OTL claims: the Baltics, East Poland, Bessarabia, Kars, and basing rights in Bulgaria. This does not include any claims he might make after inevitably backstabbing Hitler, which would see all of Eastern Europe and Germany reduced to satellite states. Depending on the developing situation, he might be content leaving Yugoslavia as a neutral nation in the Balkans, and with OTL East Germany.

    The Middle East: Afghanistan as a Soviet satellite, and at Iran at least in the Soviet Sphere of Influence.

    The Far East: the Japanese driven out of Manchuria...which would not be annexed into the Soviet Union, but would either become a Soviet puppet state (Manchukuo 2.0 Electric Boogaloo), or is returned to China (albeit with strong Soviet influence). Don't think Stalin would want to get involved in Korea (yet), or for the Second Sino-Japanese War to end for a while, to grind Japan and China down even further.

    German Goals
    Europe: same as OTL, but Hitler would prefer a peace treaty with Britain before betraying Stalin. Get Spain into the war to attack Gibraltar.

    North Africa: same as OTL.

    The Middle East: get Turkey as an ally, ditto for Iraq.
     
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  20. Strategos' Risk Oriental Orientalist

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    I think Rohm was just a strongman so maybe not an actual plan per se