Another well written and very interesting update. Can't wait to see what the next one brings. So Stalin won't be caught by surprise in TTL. That likely means that Germany and its allies will be bled white against the greatly superior numbers of the Red Army. Especially since they have had more time to gain combat experience and recover from the Purge and the weaknesses so far discovered.
I see Wagner and Blomberg having plans for both sides potentially starting the conflict. One major difference I see happening in this timeline is, hopefully, Japan attacking from Manchuria and tying up the Far East Army and drawing Stalin into a 2 front war. If they can threaten the Caucuses, even if they don't attack they can tie up some of the USSR's more experienced troops at least at the outset. With the better inter-Axis cooperation Barbarossa will likely be larger than OTL, with appropriate winter gear and supply trains. Gaining the support of peoples like Ukrainians will likely be a priority, turning native Russians against the Soviet government. Considering the support the Nazis got in OTL I imagine that will be even more effective this time around. The lack of Lend-Lease from the US will also be a point against Stalin here I would imagine.
One area I see the Nazis having an edge is in weapons. One I see having use in both attack and defense is the
Taifun, since it fits Wagner's mindset, being simple, easy to mass produce and requiring little resources per weapon to manufacture. They were designed to be fired from modified 88mm gun mounts which the Germans already had. This could help greatly since 40% of the Red Bomber force won't be destroyed on the ground the first day this time. Also the
Henschel Hs 117 Schmetterling, which was submitted in 1941 in OTL but rejected because the German High Command saw no need for more anti-air weaponry. Wagner, who sees the long game, I can see realizing the advantages rockets like these could give against the Soviets.