Wagner’s Germany: An Axis Victory TL
- Thread starter CrimsonKing
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Yes, but in a period where the Japanese army in China conducted entire operations (and, you know, started the 1937 war) without the knowledge or consent of Tokyo, it's hard to see the Navy faction becoming powerful enough to end their commitment to China. They need at least some Army cooperation for their own plans to work, after all. OTL was a compromise between their two priorities, and given how there was a need for interservice cooperation for their grand strategy to work at all, it's hard to see one faction win definitively over the other.
I think the only thing that could really help Japan is the ASB advantage of hind sight. I've toyed with the idea of doing a TL where Hirohito on his deathbed is ISOTed back into his younger body just after being crowned emperor but even in this scenario there's no guarantee of success.
Too bad I can't write for shit but if anyone else would like to run with this idea, by all means do so.
Too bad I can't write for shit but if anyone else would like to run with this idea, by all means do so.
I think that counts as a Catch-22, though, since an invasion of the Dutch East Indies would antagonize the United States just as much as the OTL occupation of Indochina. What would help would be an end to hostilities with Britain - without them to hide behind, the Dutch government in exile would probably cave to Japanese pressure and sell oil. Otherwise, kicking Japan to the curb to keep Washington off his back is probably Wagner's best option - they wouldn't be much help against the USSR anyways.
If the Dutch in Europe take control of Indonesia, Wagner could just have them sell the DEI to Japan
It's not that the IJN doesn't see the US as the logical enemy, Japan and the US had been thinking of each other in such terms since the end of WWI. The difference is that with the expanded German-Soviet Axis, it makes sense from the Japanese perspective to complete the defeat of China and move south before any future confrontation with the US. Also, tensions with the US are somewhat lower than in OTL due to a Republican president rather than Roosevelt, and the defeat at Khalkin Gol still happened in TTL (I don't see a reason why it would be butterflied) so the advocates of war with the SU have been substantially discredited.
I think the only thing that could really help Japan is the ASB advantage of hind sight. I've toyed with the idea of doing a TL where Hirohito on his deathbed is ISOTed back into his younger body just after being crowned emperor but even in this scenario there's no guarantee of success.
Too bad I can't write for shit but if anyone else would like to run with this idea, by all means do so.
It is certainly correct that in TTL as historically the "China Incident" needs to be brought to some kind of conclusion for Japan to have wider freedom of action, in particular economically.
This is also correct. If the German-backed Dutch government which controls Holland itself had also managed to retain the loyalty of the colonial apparatus in Indonesia, it could have come to an arrangement with the Japanese similar to the one the French already had with Indochina. But that would have been too much good look for the Axis given that the French colonial empire did stay loyal to Petain.
The modifications mentioned earlier have been made. Here is the revised ending to the last update. "The occupation of Persia was even more difficult, as a result of the support given by Churchill, which precipitated direct conflict between Britain and the USSR on 2 October. Under the command of Marshal Georgy Zhukov, the Middle Eastern Front with slightly under two hundred thousand men, several hundred tanks, and around a thousand aircraft, made slow but steady progress to the south. It was opposed by the Persian Army and a British force of three infantry divisions and an armored brigade. After a period of two months, Zhukov halted the advance after occupying the northern half of the country as a result of supply difficulties arising from the thin local rail network, requesting and receiving approval from Stalin for top priority to be given to expanding the railroads so as to enable a far larger force to resume the advance in a few months' time. Meanwhile, the Abwehr and NKVD collaborated in giving as much support as possible to the various anti-British partisan movements in Mesopotamia."
I hope it's a reasonable course of events given both the logistical difficulties a Soviet advance opposed by both the Iranians and British would encounter and the overall weakness of Britain's position in TTL.
I hope it's a reasonable course of events given both the logistical difficulties a Soviet advance opposed by both the Iranians and British would encounter and the overall weakness of Britain's position in TTL.
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Interesting; I wonder how people in the US will react.
BTW one nitpick; the Soviet Intelligence service was the NKVD, not the KGB.
In the peace treaty with Germany, didn't the Dutch give away East Indies to Japan ? Or just control of oil fields, or even promise to continue to sell oil to Japan ? Not to mention, basing rights for IJN in East Indies ?
In exchange for Netherlands not being occupied nor having to pay reparations.
And if it wasn't done, why ? Wagner WOULD have thought of it. And the Dutch would have been forced to accept (and even happy to accept, their own country takes precedence over colonies).
In exchange for Netherlands not being occupied nor having to pay reparations.
And if it wasn't done, why ? Wagner WOULD have thought of it. And the Dutch would have been forced to accept (and even happy to accept, their own country takes precedence over colonies).
Also, personnally I think giving away Middle East to Stalin is a good move.
Turkey will likely accept to join Barbarossa in a "War of Continuation" even if they resent Wagner for his earlier pact with Stalin. The Finns did exactly that IOTL.
More importantly, Stalin will have millions of soldiers either killed, or stationed in Persia, Afghanistan (a BIG quagmire), and possibly India.
He will also even less expect an attack from Germany.
Plus, of course, he will have to face the Germans ALONE. With full support from all continental Europe countries, and Japan hanging like an albatros near East Siberia (like IOTL, even if the IJA just sits there, it forces Stalin to maintain divisions east).
Britain and US may sell some weapons to SU to make profit but won't really support the Soviets, who will be much more feared and unpopular since they stabbed Britain during the last war. Plus British opinion will be weary of any entanglement in the war, and British elites hate communism.
More or less the same for the USA.
And of course, once Wagner starts liberating Ukraine, Bielorussia... and revealing Stalin's crimes, the world opinion (including British and US) will be tipped in Germany's favor. Ot at least, nobody will dare to suggest to support Stalin.
In a war with Germany, the Soviets are in a much better position with the British controlling the Middle East and providing resources through Persia road, than having to occupy everything themselves in Middle East.
So any advantage Stalin gains there would be useful in a peaceful world (access to Indian Ocean, no more British at his south, weakened Britain), but won't really help when Barbarossa comes.
Bases in Bulgaria won't really help Stalin that much either, since Bulgarian / German forces will corner them at the beginning of the war.
The only real advantage Stalin gets (in regards to Barbarossa) is full control of Finland (so no risk of Axis attack on Leningrad).
And even that is a double-edged sword, since Stalin still has to guard against possible German / Norwegian / Swedish / Danish attack in Finland. And to occupy whole Finland (quagmire).
Plus, those concessions will lull Stalin into false security even further. After all, if Wagner planned on betraying him, he would not give away whole Finland (road to Leningrad) nor bases in Bulgaria, right ?
The REALLY best scenario for Wagner would be achieving a total surprise against Soviet Union, by preparing massing his troops in Germany proper and moving them by train to Soviet border (with all their equipment). So Stalin would have days at most to suspect anything.
And then crossing the lightly guarded border (since the Soviets sent more troops, and the better ones, to Middle East) and blitzkrieging through Baltic countries, Ukraine and Bielorussia.
To keep the surprise, Wagner could choose to not tell any of his allies, and start with just German troops. And having Italians, French, Spaniards, Romanians... join only after the operation is started.
Maybe use the weakest forces (from the weakest allies) for logistical and garrison duties, while keeping the best forces (German or not) for frontlines, too.
Turkey will likely accept to join Barbarossa in a "War of Continuation" even if they resent Wagner for his earlier pact with Stalin. The Finns did exactly that IOTL.
More importantly, Stalin will have millions of soldiers either killed, or stationed in Persia, Afghanistan (a BIG quagmire), and possibly India.
He will also even less expect an attack from Germany.
Plus, of course, he will have to face the Germans ALONE. With full support from all continental Europe countries, and Japan hanging like an albatros near East Siberia (like IOTL, even if the IJA just sits there, it forces Stalin to maintain divisions east).
Britain and US may sell some weapons to SU to make profit but won't really support the Soviets, who will be much more feared and unpopular since they stabbed Britain during the last war. Plus British opinion will be weary of any entanglement in the war, and British elites hate communism.
More or less the same for the USA.
And of course, once Wagner starts liberating Ukraine, Bielorussia... and revealing Stalin's crimes, the world opinion (including British and US) will be tipped in Germany's favor. Ot at least, nobody will dare to suggest to support Stalin.
In a war with Germany, the Soviets are in a much better position with the British controlling the Middle East and providing resources through Persia road, than having to occupy everything themselves in Middle East.
So any advantage Stalin gains there would be useful in a peaceful world (access to Indian Ocean, no more British at his south, weakened Britain), but won't really help when Barbarossa comes.
Bases in Bulgaria won't really help Stalin that much either, since Bulgarian / German forces will corner them at the beginning of the war.
The only real advantage Stalin gets (in regards to Barbarossa) is full control of Finland (so no risk of Axis attack on Leningrad).
And even that is a double-edged sword, since Stalin still has to guard against possible German / Norwegian / Swedish / Danish attack in Finland. And to occupy whole Finland (quagmire).
Plus, those concessions will lull Stalin into false security even further. After all, if Wagner planned on betraying him, he would not give away whole Finland (road to Leningrad) nor bases in Bulgaria, right ?
The REALLY best scenario for Wagner would be achieving a total surprise against Soviet Union, by preparing massing his troops in Germany proper and moving them by train to Soviet border (with all their equipment). So Stalin would have days at most to suspect anything.
And then crossing the lightly guarded border (since the Soviets sent more troops, and the better ones, to Middle East) and blitzkrieging through Baltic countries, Ukraine and Bielorussia.
To keep the surprise, Wagner could choose to not tell any of his allies, and start with just German troops. And having Italians, French, Spaniards, Romanians... join only after the operation is started.
Maybe use the weakest forces (from the weakest allies) for logistical and garrison duties, while keeping the best forces (German or not) for frontlines, too.
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The US reaction will be touched on in the next update.
The abbreviation has been edited.
The issue is the Axis Dutch don't have control over the East Indies, it's the government-in-exile backed by Britain which does.
I don't disagree for the most part, the problem I see is achieving complete surprise will be more of an issue without Britain in the war.
Excellent point! I had posted earlier that I didn't think Wagner should have given Stalin Balkans and Mid-East, but you bring up an excellent point in that the deeper Stalin gets embroiled in the Middle East/India the more vulnerable he becomes on his Western frontier. The logistics in that area are horrible (at best) and the fact that the USSR is now trading shots with GB makes for a very interesting "what now" for GB when Germany invades the USSR in the future.
What will Britain do when put in this position? Will she extend help to the SU or let Stalin "stew in his own juices"?
This will be fun to see how it unfolds...
Of course, it COULD have drawbacks as well.
Red Army, with its deployments in Finland, Persia, Afghanistan, and maybe India, will have much, much more experience when Barbarossa comes. It will allow the Soviets to work out the kinks in their armed forces, total war industry, and logistics, and groom a new generation of good officers (mitigating the effects of the Purges).
Invasion of Finland, Persia and Afghanistan will give the Soviets more experience in irregular war. They will be able to watch the tactics of anti-Soviet partisans (which will be very useful when the Soviet Union herself is invaded), and also develop their own counter-insurgency doctrine (which would be less useful in a Barbarossa scenario, in which they won't be the occupier).
And while Persian, Finn and Afghan armies are respectable (given the size and limited wealth of their countries), they are nowhere near the Wehrmacht, so it won't give the Soviets experience of fighting a pear opponent.
Meaning they will gain much experience in guerilla, VERY much experience in logistics, and SOME (but not enough) experience in regular fighting.
If the Soviets invade India and Iraq, they will fight a peer opponent (British Imperial forces), which will improve the quality of the Red Army. However, they would also overextend themselves.
Then, it all depends on Stalin's choices. Does he play the caution card, and invade only Persia and Afghanistan, maybe Iraq (controlling Afghanistan allowing to threaten India), and then support Subas Chandra Bose and Rashid Ali, while trying to get a white peace with Britain ?
I can see Stalin doing that, and the British actually accepting. The main threat there is still Germany, who is directly facing Britain and carrying an aerial and naval war against her.
The British are also pragmatists, they will of course prefer to fight the Axis minus Soviets, than Germany + Italy + France + Spain + Soviet Union + Japan + satellite countries all at once.
Wagner's plan will work only if Stalin decides to invade India (on top of British Middle East protectorates), or if he backstabs Stalin before he had the time to get a white peace with the British and get enough of his troops back west.
Red Army, with its deployments in Finland, Persia, Afghanistan, and maybe India, will have much, much more experience when Barbarossa comes. It will allow the Soviets to work out the kinks in their armed forces, total war industry, and logistics, and groom a new generation of good officers (mitigating the effects of the Purges).
Invasion of Finland, Persia and Afghanistan will give the Soviets more experience in irregular war. They will be able to watch the tactics of anti-Soviet partisans (which will be very useful when the Soviet Union herself is invaded), and also develop their own counter-insurgency doctrine (which would be less useful in a Barbarossa scenario, in which they won't be the occupier).
And while Persian, Finn and Afghan armies are respectable (given the size and limited wealth of their countries), they are nowhere near the Wehrmacht, so it won't give the Soviets experience of fighting a pear opponent.
Meaning they will gain much experience in guerilla, VERY much experience in logistics, and SOME (but not enough) experience in regular fighting.
If the Soviets invade India and Iraq, they will fight a peer opponent (British Imperial forces), which will improve the quality of the Red Army. However, they would also overextend themselves.
Then, it all depends on Stalin's choices. Does he play the caution card, and invade only Persia and Afghanistan, maybe Iraq (controlling Afghanistan allowing to threaten India), and then support Subas Chandra Bose and Rashid Ali, while trying to get a white peace with Britain ?
I can see Stalin doing that, and the British actually accepting. The main threat there is still Germany, who is directly facing Britain and carrying an aerial and naval war against her.
The British are also pragmatists, they will of course prefer to fight the Axis minus Soviets, than Germany + Italy + France + Spain + Soviet Union + Japan + satellite countries all at once.
Wagner's plan will work only if Stalin decides to invade India (on top of British Middle East protectorates), or if he backstabs Stalin before he had the time to get a white peace with the British and get enough of his troops back west.
I wonder... could the Japanese and the Soviets work together in an invassion of India? The Japanese invading through Burma, the Soviets through Afganistan. Is that remotetly feasible when it comes to logistics?
The Japanese don't add much, since they'd be at the end of their logistical rope. Now, Russia has it easier, with only a ten mile stretch of Afghanistan between them and the Indian border at the narrowest point. Still, I suspect that the Pamirs would be nightmarishly good terrain for defense, with plenty of bottlenecks the Indians could use. And I don't know how easily they could be traversed with artillery and the like, or what the Russian logistical network in Central Asia looked like at this point.
Well the invasion of Finland happened OTL as well and as far as the ME is concerned, the USSR might also learn some wrong lessons there. And then basically face the reverse situation, the US faced when it was in Iraq and Afghanistan with an army designed to fight a mechanized war on the European countryside.
Logistics are indeed a big problem for the USSR currently, at least equal to problems of incompetence generated by the purges.
The experience the Red Army is gaining and the attendant knowledge of its deficiencies on the part of the Soviet high command are certainly significant factors and will be taken into account.
Also true. The SU military is still going to have major problems, to say the least, by the time the big confrontation comes.
Aside from anything else, the war isn't going to last long enough for the fighting to reach India.