Wagner’s Germany: An Axis Victory TL

[hipper]

Great point! I was not aware that the 10th was that big. However due to the fact GB lost the BEF instead of recovering that manpower, that it might have been difficult to maintain an army of that size?

How big was the BEF ITTL?

 

[Tonrich]

How big was the BEF ITTL?

According to Wiki in May 1940 the BEF comprised 10 infantry divisions, the 1st Army tank Brigade, the BEF Air Component RAF of about 500 aircraft. There were also elements of 1st Battalion - Welsh Guards, 9th Battalion - West Yorkshire Regiment, and the 14th battalion - Royal Fusiliers and the HQ Royal Artillery, 5th Infantry Division. The total was over 315,000 men.

 

[CrimsonKing]

Jesus. I come with two conclusions. One, Japan will come out of this a major power in its own right (I am envisioning a future where the US, UK, and Japan form a 'Triple Alliance' against Nazi Germany).
Second, Stalin's reaction when Wagner betrays him will be far worse than OTL

Without giving too much of the plot away, I can say that those are not unreasonable conclusions.

The only way that makes sense is if the British assume War with Japan inevitable.

without the Abadan Refinery Britains strategic position in the Far East crumbleS
In OTL they had a whole army ready to defend the Middle East from a northern invasion here they just don't bother?

i Disagree with mr Cruiser here. Britain is too stretched, Its plausible that the most of the army was since sent against germany.

I think ITTL the British might have sent those troops elsewhere since the Germans were a much more immediate threat in other parts of the Middle East so they probably couldn't afford to have an army sitting there doing nothing just in case of a hypothetical Soviet attack.
ITTL it seems like the British kind of screwed themselves by hanging on too long, had they made peace with Germany sooner they would still be strong enough to ward off any aggressiveness by the Russians or Japanese.

In 1942 when Rommel was attacking in the western desert, the Japanese had invaded Burma

the 10th army consisted of 5 infantry divisions and an armoured brigade

It was stationed in Iraq

Regards Hipper

Won't Great Britain technically (or for Real) be at war with the SU once the SU joins the Axis?

Yese but that army wont be there as Britain wouldnt IMHO think This would happen. they will be blindsided.

Great point! I was not aware that the 10th was that big. However due to the fact GB lost the BEF instead of recovering that manpower, that it might have been difficult to maintain an army of that size?

How big was the BEF ITTL?

According to Wiki in May 1940 the BEF comprised 10 infantry divisions, the 1st Army tank Brigade, the BEF Air Component RAF of about 500 aircraft. There were also elements of 1st Battalion - Welsh Guards, 9th Battalion - West Yorkshire Regiment, and the 14th battalion - Royal Fusiliers and the HQ Royal Artillery, 5th Infantry Division. The total was over 315,000 men.

The BEF was the same size in TTL as it historically was. Even if it is assumed that the 10th Army, despite the loss of the BEF and the troubles of the WDF, remains the same as it was in OTL (and it wouldn't of course as has been indicated), it isn't like five infantry divisions and an armored brigade would have been able to hold off the Red Army, even the inept one on display here.

A question: if the British have invaded the Canary Islands after the Axis attack on Gibraltar, its government is just a military occupation, or they have decided to restore a pro-British Spanish government -a kind of Free Spain; perhaps, the Spanish Republican government in exile since the end of the Spanish Civil War or the British created other government led by Infante Juan de Borbon y Battenberg (John III for the Monarchists), the pretender to the Spanish throne after the death of Alfonso XIII-.

If the latter option is chosen, that would result in great political turmoil in Francoist Spain -a large part of Franco's allies during the SCW and Franco's dictatorship were the Monarchists (Alfonsists/Juanists and Carlists), who could be seen as traitors by the Falangists and the Spanish Forces Armed if Infante Juan is leading a rebel government allied with the British, which could result in unexpected output such as Franco is proclaimed himself as new King of Spain -in OTL some Francoists suggested it to Franco himself in his early years of dictatorship, but had to wait for Franco's father died (was in 1942), and when this rumor was airing among politicians, Monarchists screamed in heaven and in view of the poor reception given, Franco dismissed that idea-.

It's just a military occupation.

I think that in invading Persia Stalin would have expanded the Azerbaijan SSR on ethnic grounds to encompass all of the majority Azerbaijani lands of Persia.
Also loving the TL.

He can also expand the Armenian SSR and create a Kurdish SSR -the latter could boost a Kurdish armed insurrection in Iraq militarily controlled by the British-.

This is correct. The next update will contain further details.

Is it still within Stalin's character to enter the Axis? If I remember correctly, he was far too paranoid to trust nobody. People who showed him nothing but loyalty would still be executed only because he believed they would eventually betray him. Even under Wagner, the Nazis have showed nothing but comptemp towards communism and I think their interest in living space was common knowledge. In OTL, even the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact was signed under the full knowledge that Germany would eventually turn on the Soviet Union, what surprised Stalin was that they did it so soon.

Also, another question. Was the Soviet Oil production big enough to keep both Japan and Germany supplied?

Stalin may just be trying to buy time here, as you mentioned above, Stalin was surprised by Barbarossa because Germany was still in serious struggle with Britain where the outcome wasn't clear yet. ITTL Germany seems much more likely to win the war and Stalin is more than likely very concerned that after this victory Germany will turn on him.

By joining the Axis now, Stalin is hoping to buy some time and gain some combat experience for his armed forces. I could be wrong here but I think there's some logic in this possibility.

That makes sense. Perhaps Stalin thinks that by taking control of Finland, Persia and getting Bulgaria into its sphere, while also making Japan dependant on the Soviet Union's oil (so that they won't try to invade and split the SU into a two front war) and getting combat experience for the Red Army (which has just been demostrated to be in bad shape), he will be able to win once Wagner and Germany inevitably turn on him and invade. Seeing this from this angle actually makes everything a very good choice.

The terms for Soviet entry are based on what Stalin historically offered for entering the Axis. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German–Soviet_Axis_talks

Regarding the USSR's oil production, while my guess would be that it was large enough that it probably could supply both Japan and Germany, in TTL with the development of oilfields in Austria and Libya, the non-Soviet European Axis is self-sufficient in oil.

I'm wondering now if the US enters the war after the Soviets join in (for whatever reasons may occur), how could the USSR play a part in the war against the US?

Mainly, they would continue to supply needed raw materials to Germany and Japan and act as a hub for trade between them.

Stalin would indeed expand the Armenian and (especially) the Azerbaijani SSRs at Iran and Turkey's expense, and the creation of a Kurdish SSR to be directly incorporated into the Soviet Union would not be far behind.

I don't know if it was the plan IOTL, but why didn't Stalin just annex Finland directly as a the Finish SSR?

As for the British army that was stationed in Iran IOTL, I assume it was denuded and then transferred to bolster the collapsing British position in North Africa and to shore up the defenses of the Raj and British Mandate of Iraq, leaving Iran defenseless against Stalin.

That was the ultimate claim of OTL Stalin, but the Soviet Union met against the tenacious struggle of the Finnish people for their freedom and independence -at a time when the Allies still had not been defeated in the French battlefields-.

Well I think ITTL - with what's left of the WAllies (i.e. Britain) well and truly on the backfoot - Stalin would just directly annex Finland as an SSR, despite the tenacious Finnish resistance. Stalin was a Great Russian chauvinist after all, and Finland had been a part of the Russian Empire he sought to recreate.

Mannerheim used his cards well in the OTL 1944 Moscow Armistice. He took the Soviet complications to enter Finland, a front diverted needed troops for the fight against Wehrmacht troops.

And ITTL Finland has no such salvation. I don't think it would be a separate puppet republic.

Upon further consideration, I agree. The update has been edited to state the Finish SSR.

Wagner doesn't have to betray Stalin. Stalin could betray Wagner and the Axis on his own.

The betrayer chooses the time of engagement, though.

There are indeed all sorts of interesting possibilities.

WOW! I totally understand and applaud Wagner's position of "taking care of the now-NOW and fixing later - LATER", but I think the concessions he gave Stalin are too much. Finland is not a strategic position so I have no problem with that one. Control of the Bosporus is MAJOR strategic, as is the Persian Gulf/India. I would have given one of the two, not both. If the SU goes south, fine but then no more Balkans.

I realize everyone will say "Wagner will just take it back once he goes after Stalin", but you don't know when and how things will work out. I wouldn't have let them in the Balkans. It is too important from a resource standpoint as well as the politics. Keeping the SU out of that area will help keep existing governments stable and hopefully an area that requires little maintenance or supervision (From Wagner's point of view).

BTW - Great update. I am so enjoying this...

Agreed he essentially Refused in first round and then conceded everything in second round.
Getting Some concessions from soviets is well within Wagner abilities. On the other hand Giving them both may see Stalin treat this more seriously as Wagner essentially worsened his own position should he want to attack USSR meaning Stalin will be less paranoid about this.

You may very well be right. I'm trying not to have Wagner always make the best decision available, and in this instance his concern for getting the SU in the Axis and isolating it from the Anglo-Americans probably does make him concede more than he needed to.

 

[hipper]

The BEF was the same size in TTL as it historically was. Even if it is assumed that the 10th Army, despite the loss of the BEF and the troubles of the WDF, remains the same as it was in OTL (and it wouldn't of course as has been indicated), it isn't like five infantry divisions and an armored brigade would have been able to hold off the Red Army, even the inept one on display here.

That's interesting the UK seem to have dallied for a year without mobilising despite the historical driver of an German soviet alliance in 1939 . I would have expected then BEF to be larger given a 1941 battle of France.

I suspect 5 motorised divisions and an armoured brigade could easily be larger than any force the Russians could have supported in Southern Persia for a considerable period.

The trans Persia railroad could transport less than 1000 tonnes of supplies per Day and was eminently defendable and interuptable. That amount of transport is not going to support much of a red army in southern Iran.


Wagners main path to victory so far is for his enemies not to fight him, - its more interesting if you put in some resistance.

 

[highwayhoss]

Regarding the British occupation of the Canaries, I would think with the fall of Gibraltar and France allied with Germany that the British will withdraw as part of a settlement to end the war. (just my double copper Lincolns).

As for Wagner's deal with the SU, I suspect this will cost him considerable support in various nations; people in Finland, the Balkans and the Middle East will no doubt be furious with what they see as a betrayal. Italy will not be pleased either. The US might decide on a closer alliance with the UK to act as a counterweight. As for Japan, I cannot see them being happy with depending on the SU for strategic resources, considering the deep hatred Japan has for the SU; I can easily see them reacting angrily to this, considering many Japanese officers saw war with the US as inevitable.

 

[cortz#9]

Regarding the British occupation of the Canaries, I would think with the fall of Gibraltar and France allied with Germany that the British will withdraw as part of a settlement to end the war. (just my double copper Lincolns).

As for Wagner's deal with the SU, I suspect this will cost him considerable support in various nations; people in Finland, the Balkans and the Middle East will no doubt be furious with what they see as a betrayal. Italy will not be pleased either. The US might decide on a closer alliance with the UK to act as a counterweight. As for Japan, I cannot see them being happy with depending on the SU for strategic resources, considering the deep hatred Japan has for the SU; I can easily see them reacting angrily to this, considering many Japanese officers saw war with the US as inevitable.

IOTL Japan signed a non-aggression pact with the Soviets in 1941 so I can see them going for an alliance with them if Wagner convinces them its to the Axis advantage (especially if he tells them its only temporary).

 

[Gudestein]

If the Americans are indeed only selling goods to the U.K. What's there leaverage? in OTL they had done the destroyers for bases deal and the British still shut off supplies to china it seems the Americans have less leaverage

Ghenghis comment makes no sense, the Japanese are trapped in a quagmire in china, however avoiding a war in the Far East would be a prime driver for the UK as they are war with most of the rest of the world at the moment.

I like it that you argue both sides of the coin. That unfortunately is quite rare here. Crimsonking obviously would like the support to continue, because it makes a Japanese attack on Britain (while they are at war with China), all the more likely. ITTL I think Hipper has a point. The strategic risks of supporting a war against Japan is just too great and they don't have the resources.

Something more is needed.
The US could make the support via Britain without Britain paying for it and insisting on it. But Britani should get well compensated for the risk they take.

Alternatively, Japan may attack south without the British provocation. Obviously, they are being given a tremendous strategic opportunity that may not come again.

 

[The Congressman]

I like it that you argue both sides of the coin. That unfortunately is quite rare here. Crimsonking obviously would like the support to continue, because it makes a Japanese attack on Britain (while they are at war with China), all the more likely. ITTL I think Hipper has a point. The strategic risks of supporting a war against Japan is just too great and they don't have the resources.

Something more is needed.
The US could make the support via Britain without Britain paying for it and insisting on it. But Britani should get well compensated for the risk they take.

Alternatively, Japan may attack south without the British provocation. Obviously, they are being given a tremendous strategic opportunity that may not come again.

Japan does have the opportunity, but they have to do it without luring the US into the war. They need to prevent all the war crimes from happening against the British, and be realistic in their gains. Don't go for Australia or India, and stay away from the Philippines.
Hell, they could get the Germans to just force the Dutch to sell them the East Indies

 

[Tonrich]

Japan does have the opportunity, but they have to do it without luring the US into the war. They need to prevent all the war crimes from happening against the British, and be realistic in their gains. Don't go for Australia or India, and stay away from the Philippines.
Hell, they could get the Germans to just force the Dutch to sell them the East Indies

If the Japanese can find a way to get control of the Dutch East Indies their resource issues go away. They become a much bigger economy (depending how much time they have to consolidate those gains) and therefore become much more dangerous. Now it is true that their logistics lines are very vulnerable to both the US and GB, but with time to set up bases in French Indo-china and their new possession's in Sumatra, Java, Celebes, New Guinea and West Timor they would have bases (like Truk) set up to be able to take advantage of any situation. (Remember if they are the aggressor they will get to set up the chess pieces ahead of time) The Philippines and Guam are then completely surrounded as is Northern Borneo. The Malay peninsula is in a much more difficult strategic position.

The problem for Japan is that this needed to be done in early 1940 so they had time to set up the bases and carve out the infrastructure needed. if they had 3 to 4 years before a war they would be tough to deal with.

This also would be an interesting TL.

 

[The Congressman]

If the Japanese can find a way to get control of the Dutch East Indies their resource issues go away. They become a much bigger economy (depending how much time they have to consolidate those gains) and therefore become much more dangerous. Now it is true that their logistics lines are very vulnerable to both the US and GB, but with time to set up bases in French Indo-china and their new possession's in Sumatra, Java, Celebes, New Guinea and West Timor they would have bases (like Truk) set up to be able to take advantage of any situation. (Remember if they are the aggressor they will get to set up the chess pieces ahead of time) The Philippines and Guam are then completely surrounded as is Northern Borneo. The Malay peninsula is in a much more difficult strategic position.

The problem for Japan is that this needed to be done in early 1940 so they had time to set up the bases and carve out the infrastructure needed. if they had 3 to 4 years before a war they would be tough to deal with.

This also would be an interesting TL.

In this case, even with all the resources the Japanese will still need to hold down China, and that will basically occupy them for at least a decade. It would be smarter for them to acquire what they need through peaceful annexation rather than antagonizing Britain and the United States

 

[luis3007]

There is no peaceful annexation possible here. Its not like China will allow to Japanese to keep territory in mainland China long term. Manchuria perhaps if it can be allowed some peace to develop a different identity but nothing else.

And so Japan needs the resources of Indochina and Indonesia without getting into a war for it. Annoy the US and Britain, yes. But they are too busy with Europe to really object as long as war is not started.

 

[CrimsonKing]

The BEF was the same size in TTL as it historically was. Even if it is assumed that the 10th Army, despite the loss of the BEF and the troubles of the WDF, remains the same as it was in OTL (and it wouldn't of course as has been indicated), it isn't like five infantry divisions and an armored brigade would have been able to hold off the Red Army, even the inept one on display here.

That's interesting the UK seem to have dallied for a year without mobilising despite the historical driver of an German soviet alliance in 1939 . I would have expected then BEF to be larger given a 1941 battle of France.

I suspect 5 motorised divisions and an armoured brigade could easily be larger than any force the Russians could have supported in Southern Persia for a considerable period.

The trans Persia railroad could transport less than 1000 tonnes of supplies per Day and was eminently defendable and interuptable. That amount of transport is not going to support much of a red army in southern Iran.


Wagners main path to victory so far is for his enemies not to fight him, - its more interesting if you put in some resistance.

There was no Phony War in TTL, so there was less time to send the BEF to France. That is why it was the same size as it historically was, Britain as a whole is more prepared, but the period between the outbreak of the war and the German offensive on the Western Front wasn't as large.

I have decided to adopt the suggestion that the British attempt to stop the Soviet invasion of Persia. The modified paragraph will be posted in the next few days. The British army in Persia definitely won't be as large as 5+ divisions though given the loss of (most of) the BEF.

Regarding the British occupation of the Canaries, I would think with the fall of Gibraltar and France allied with Germany that the British will withdraw as part of a settlement to end the war. (just my double copper Lincolns).

As for Wagner's deal with the SU, I suspect this will cost him considerable support in various nations; people in Finland, the Balkans and the Middle East will no doubt be furious with what they see as a betrayal. Italy will not be pleased either. The US might decide on a closer alliance with the UK to act as a counterweight. As for Japan, I cannot see them being happy with depending on the SU for strategic resources, considering the deep hatred Japan has for the SU; I can easily see them reacting angrily to this, considering many Japanese officers saw war with the US as inevitable.

IOTL Japan signed a non-aggression pact with the Soviets in 1941 so I can see them going for an alliance with them if Wagner convinces them its to the Axis advantage (especially if he tells them its only temporary).

Regarding the surprise of the Soviet Axis entry, it wouldn't be a completely new development, given the prior M-N Accords. For Japan, as I see it, if the Nazis were willing to engage in significant economic ties with the SU, the Japanese could as well. As cortz#9 points out, they did sign a non-aggression pact in OTL.

I like it that you argue both sides of the coin. That unfortunately is quite rare here. Crimsonking obviously would like the support to continue, because it makes a Japanese attack on Britain (while they are at war with China), all the more likely. ITTL I think Hipper has a point. The strategic risks of supporting a war against Japan is just too great and they don't have the resources.

Something more is needed.
The US could make the support via Britain without Britain paying for it and insisting on it. But Britani should get well compensated for the risk they take.

Alternatively, Japan may attack south without the British provocation. Obviously, they are being given a tremendous strategic opportunity that may not come again.

Cash and carry, especially after the Fall of France, is quite important to the British war effort, and loosing it would have a significantly detrimental impact. That said, I will edit the update before last to also state that part of the Japanese motivation is the strategic opportunity aside from support to China from the British/US.

Japan does have the opportunity, but they have to do it without luring the US into the war. They need to prevent all the war crimes from happening against the British, and be realistic in their gains. Don't go for Australia or India, and stay away from the Philippines.
Hell, they could get the Germans to just force the Dutch to sell them the East Indies

In TTL Japanese war aims will certainly be realistic as you suggest and not include those grandiose objectives.

If the Japanese can find a way to get control of the Dutch East Indies their resource issues go away. They become a much bigger economy (depending how much time they have to consolidate those gains) and therefore become much more dangerous. Now it is true that their logistics lines are very vulnerable to both the US and GB, but with time to set up bases in French Indo-china and their new possession's in Sumatra, Java, Celebes, New Guinea and West Timor they would have bases (like Truk) set up to be able to take advantage of any situation. (Remember if they are the aggressor they will get to set up the chess pieces ahead of time) The Philippines and Guam are then completely surrounded as is Northern Borneo. The Malay peninsula is in a much more difficult strategic position.

The problem for Japan is that this needed to be done in early 1940 so they had time to set up the bases and carve out the infrastructure needed. if they had 3 to 4 years before a war they would be tough to deal with.

This also would be an interesting TL.

True, the vulnerabilities of the positions involved do potentially apply both ways given some amount of time to prepare on Japan's part.

In this case, even with all the resources the Japanese will still need to hold down China, and that will basically occupy them for at least a decade. It would be smarter for them to acquire what they need through peaceful annexation rather than antagonizing Britain and the United States

There is no peaceful annexation possible here. Its not like China will allow to Japanese to keep territory in mainland China long term. Manchuria perhaps if it can be allowed some peace to develop a different identity but nothing else.

And so Japan needs the resources of Indochina and Indonesia without getting into a war for it. Annoy the US and Britain, yes. But they are too busy with Europe to really object as long as war is not started.

While there is definitely something to be said for this line of thought, I believe the limited strike south being prepared in TTL is plausible enough given the historical aggressiveness of the Japanese leadership and the deep trouble Britain is already in with the German-Soviet axis.

 

[The Congressman]

There is no peaceful annexation possible here. Its not like China will allow to Japanese to keep territory in mainland China long term. Manchuria perhaps if it can be allowed some peace to develop a different identity but nothing else.

And so Japan needs the resources of Indochina and Indonesia without getting into a war for it. Annoy the US and Britain, yes. But they are too busy with Europe to really object as long as war is not started.

I was talking about peaceful annexation of European colonial holdings. China will have to be reduced by war

 

[Tonrich]

I was talking about peaceful annexation of European colonial holdings. China will have to be reduced by war

But I believe Japan will never advance to a Major power if they can't "dis-engage" from China. They need to free up most of the million men they have in China to do other things. Even adding 250,000 men back to the domestic workforce would be a huge boost to their economy. They need to finalize things in China before they get involved in another War, even a limited war!

 

[highwayhoss]

But I believe Japan will never advance to a Major power if they can't "dis-engage" from China. They need to free up most of the million men they have in China to do other things. Even adding 250,000 men back to the domestic workforce would be a huge boost to their economy. They need to finalize things in China before they get involved in another War, even a limited war!

As long as the IJA (specifically the Kodoha [Imperial Way] faction) controls the government, this will not happen; this faction is determined to control China at any cost. In addition, the "Fleet" faction of the IJN is convinced that the US was the logical, inevitable enemy of Japan. In addition, Japan HATES the SU with a passion because they see them as a bunch of Regicides.
These factors make any negotiations with Japan difficult at best; Wagner and his diplomats have to deal with a number of competing factions in the Japanese government to get them to cooperate with their agenda. It does not help that (as one Japanese put it) the Japanese are "romantic and illogical".

 

[Tonrich]

As long as the IJA (specifically the Kodoha [Imperial Way] faction) controls the government, this will not happen; this faction is determined to control China at any cost. In addition, the "Fleet" faction of the IJN is convinced that the US was the logical, inevitable enemy of Japan. In addition, Japan HATES the SU with a passion because they see them as a bunch of Regicides.
These factors make any negotiations with Japan difficult at best; Wagner and his diplomats have to deal with a number of competing factions in the Japanese government to get them to cooperate with their agenda. It does not help that (as one Japanese put it) the Japanese are "romantic and illogical".

Oh I agree with you totally. My point was that if the Japanese leadership can't get past China there was no way they will take the next step(major power). The down side of the Japanese political structure (particularly in the 30's and 40"s) was the fact that the emperor didn't actually set policy direction. Had he been more dictatorial it would have been interesting what path Japan would have taken.

 

[luis3007]

What would take for Hirohito to take over control of the government and wrestle from the crazy militarists? Because I'm pretty sure that some people in the Japanese government realize the folly of entering a limited war with Britain, nevermind the US, with so much manpower committed in China.

And those elements most likely are in contact with Wagner's people in Japan, who also must realize that to get the most use of Japan a disengagement first from China is required.

 

[cortz#9]

What would take for Hirohito to take over control of the government and wrestle from the crazy militarists? Because I'm pretty sure that some people in the Japanese government realize the folly of entering a limited war with Britain, nevermind the US, with so much manpower committed in China.

And those elements most likely are in contact with Wagner's people in Japan, who also must realize that to get the most use of Japan a disengagement first from China is required.

I've often wondered about this myself and the only thing I could think of was to form something like the SS, an elite group that answers to him and him alone. All Japanese were supposed to be loyal to the Emperor but the Army and the Navy were also loyal to their own institutions as well.
Had the Emperor formed an elite group that was separate from the branches of the military and had political clout that surpassed that of all politicians, the police and military personal, then he could rule with an iron fist.

He would need to form this branch in mid to late 20s, early 30s at the latest.

 

[highwayhoss]

Oh I agree with you totally. My point was that if the Japanese leadership can't get past China there was no way they will take the next step(major power). The down side of the Japanese political structure (particularly in the 30's and 40"s) was the fact that the emperor didn't actually set policy direction. Had he been more dictatorial it would have been interesting what path Japan would have taken.

What would take for Hirohito to take over control of the government and wrestle from the crazy militarists? Because I'm pretty sure that some people in the Japanese government realize the folly of entering a limited war with Britain, nevermind the US, with so much manpower committed in China.
And those elements most likely are in contact with Wagner's people in Japan, who also must realize that to get the most use of Japan a disengagement first from China is required.

The only possibility I see is for Wagner to back those factions in the government opposing the IJA. If he could loosen the IJA's control over the government, he could obtain his goals. Other possibilities might be to kick Japan out of the Axis, back Chaing Kai-Shek and the Nationalist Chinese and leave Japan to the mercy of the SU. Drastic measures, to be sure, but Wagner may not have much of a choice if he cannot convince them otherwise.
Also if the Kodoha resort to assassination, Wagner could always unleash the Abwehr on them....

 

[TRH]

It would first require that he have a fundamental disagreement with them over the direction of the country. He admitted after the war that he'd supported the militarist agenda up until the very end. In any case, it would be a hard sell to convince a man worshiped as a God that his political position is too insecure and he needs a Praetorian Guard.

The only possibility I see is for Wagner to back those factions in the government opposing the IJA. If he could loosen the IJA's control over the government, he could obtain his goals. Other possibilities might be to kick Japan out of the Axis, back Chaing Kai-Shek and the Nationalist Chinese and leave Japan to the mercy of the SU. Drastic measures, to be sure, but Wagner may not have much of a choice if he cannot convince them otherwise.
Also if the Kodoha resort to assassination, Wagner could always unleash the Abwehr on them....

The main faction opposing the IJA at this point is the IJN. Not a significant improvement.