I think ITTL the British might have sent those troops elsewhere since the Germans were a much more immediate threat in other parts of the Middle East so they probably couldn't afford to have an army sitting there doing nothing just in case of a hypothetical Soviet attack.without the Abadan Refinery Britains strategic position in the Far East crumbleS
In OTL they had a whole army ready to defend the Middle East from a northern invasion here they just don't bother?
I think that in invading Persia Stalin would have expanded the Azerbaijan SSR on ethnic grounds to encompass all of the majority Azerbaijani lands of Persia.
Also loving the TL.
I think ITTL the British might have sent those troops elsewhere since the Germans were a much more immediate threat in other parts of the Middle East so they probably couldn't afford to have an army sitting there doing nothing just in case of a hypothetical Soviet attack.
ITTL it seems like the British kind of screwed themselves by hanging on too long, had they made peace with Germany sooner they would still be strong enough to ward off any aggressiveness by the Russians or Japanese.
Stalin may just be trying to buy time here, as you mentioned above, Stalin was surprised by Barbarossa because Germany was still in serious struggle with Britain where the outcome wasn't clear yet. ITTL Germany seems much more likely to win the war and Stalin is more than likely very concerned that after this victory Germany will turn on him.Is it still within Stalin's character to enter the Axis? If I remember correctly, he was far too paranoid to trust nobody. People who showed him nothing but loyalty would still be executed only because he believed they would eventually betray him. Even under Wagner, the Nazis have showed nothing but comptemp towards communism and I think their interest in living space was common knowledge. In OTL, even the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact was signed under the full knowledge that Germany would eventually turn on the Soviet Union, what surprised Stalin was that they did it so soon.
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Stalin may just be trying to buy time here, as you mentioned above, Stalin was surprised by Barbarossa because Germany was still in serious struggle with Britain where the outcome wasn't clear yet. ITTL Germany seems much more likely to win the war and Stalin is more than likely very concerned that after this victory Germany will turn on him.
By joining the Axis now, Stalin is hoping to buy some time and gain some combat experience for his armed forces. I could be wrong here but I think there's some logic in this possibility.
I'm wondering now if the US enters the war after the Soviets join in (for whatever reasons may occur), how could the USSR play a part in the war against the US?That makes sense. Perhaps Stalin thinks that by taking control of Finland, Persia and getting Bulgaria into its sphere, while also making Japan dependant on the Soviet Union's oil (so that they won't try to invade and split the SU into a two front war) and getting combat experience for the Red Army (which has just been demostrated to be in bad shape), he will be able to win once Wagner and Germany inevitably turn on him and invade. Seeing this from this angle actually makes everything a very good choice.
I don't know if it was the plan IOTL, but why didn't Stalin just annex Finland directly as a the Finish SSR?
That was the ultimate claim of OTL Stalin, but the Soviet Union met against the tenacious struggle of the Finnish people for their freedom and independence -at a time when the Allies still had not been defeated in the French battlefields-.
Well I think ITTL - with what's left of the WAllies (i.e. Britain) well and truly on the backfoot - Stalin would just directly annex Finland as an SSR, despite the tenacious Finnish resistance. Stalin was a Great Russian chauvinist after all, and Finland had been a part of the Russian Empire he sought to recreate.
Mannerheim used his cards well in the OTL 1944 Moscow Armistice. He took the Soviet complications to enter Finland, a front diverted needed troops for the fight against Wehrmacht troops.
Wagner doesn't have to betray Stalin. Stalin could betray Wagner and the Axis on his own.
i Disagree with mr Cruiser here. Britain is too stretched, Its plausible that the most of the army was since sent against germany.
Won't Great Britain technically (or for Real) be at war with the SU once the SU joins the Axis?
In 1942 when Rommel was attacking in the western desert, the Japanese had invaded Burma
the 10th army consisted of 5 infantry divisions and an armoured brigade
It was stationed in Iraq
Regards Hipper
The Pact of Blood and the Autumn WarAmong all of Germany’s foreign relationships, the economic ties with the Soviet Union inaugurated by the Molotov-Neurath Accords were the single most important. Notwithstanding the vociferous anti-communism which had underlaid much of Hitler’s rhetoric until his death in 1933 and the public stance of the NSVP prior to 1939, it was the Accords which had freed the Third Reich from the dilemma of a two-front conflict which had proved so vexing to the Second Reich during the Great War and alleviated the effects of the British blockade. By the latter part of 1941, the continued defiance of Britain’s high command in spite of the enormous victory in France and the Low Countries compelled Wagner to upgrade the Soviet partnership to a full alliance. It was essential that Britain and the USSR be kept as far apart from one another as possible. “Britain’s hope lies in Russia,” he said during a meeting of the OKV in August, “there being no possibility for them to win on their own. With Russia as our ally, Japan will be turned into a dagger aimed at the British Empire in the Far East.” The latent potential of the German-Italian-Japanese grouping, formed in the mid-1930s under the nominal auspice of containing Soviet expansion, to act instead as an anti-British alliance was now to be realized.
Talks for negotiating the joining of the Axis by the USSR began in earnest in late August. From Stalin’s point of view, the idea offered the possibility of furthering long-held Russian foreign policy aims of expansion into the Balkans and the Middle East, a historic source of contention with Britain, as well as the recovery of Finland. Although Wagner was uneasy with some of these, his conclusion was that on balance they were worth agreeing to in return for the economic and strategic gains to be expected from full alliance. Among the highest of the latter was the possibility of facilitating Japanese entry into the war with Britain without bringing the direct involvement of the United States. As stated in the previous chapter, Japan was reliant on the US for vital shipments of raw materials, such as oil. A strike against Britain would almost certainly result in an American embargo, which necessitated seizing the Dutch East Indies, which were controlled by the British-backed Dutch government in exile. This, however, would also leave Japan highly vulnerable to US interdiction of the shipping lanes to the Home Islands from its territories in the western Pacific. In the first round of negotiation, then, Wagner held out against Soviet demands such as bases in Bulgaria and recognition of the annexation of Bukovina from Romania. These, though, were merely bargaining positions.
In the second round, much to Molotov’s pleasant surprise, the German Chancellor yielded to Stalin’s demands. In return, Wagner asked that the Soviet government agree to give Japan the option of purchasing the commodities it needed from the USSR and Germany itself should it become necessary, which Stalin accepted. On September 15th, the agreement by which the Soviet Union became an Axis nation was signed, becoming known by the international media as the “Pact of Blood.” It stipulated “The center of Soviet territorial domination is south of Baku and Batumi. Finland, Bulgaria, and the Turkish province of Kars, and the Bosporus, are also recognized as falling within the Soviet sphere of influence. The control of Bukovina by the USSR is likewise recognized. In the circumstance that Japan, having entered the war, finds its raw material supply from the East Indies cut off for whatever reason, the other members of the alliance will sell to Japan the same amount of a given item for the same price at which at present they are obtained from the United States.”
Under heavy pressure, Bulgaria agreed to Soviet basing rights in its territory and Turkey also agreed to cede Kars and allow bases in the Bosporus.
WOW! I totally understand and applaud Wagner's position of "taking care of the now-NOW and fixing later - LATER", but I think the concessions he gave Stalin are too much. Finland is not a strategic position so I have no problem with that one. Control of the Bosporus is MAJOR strategic, as is the Persian Gulf/India. I would have given one of the two, not both. If the SU goes south, fine but then no more Balkans.
I realize everyone will say "Wagner will just take it back once he goes after Stalin", but you don't know when and how things will work out. I wouldn't have let them in the Balkans. It is too important from a resource standpoint as well as the politics. Keeping the SU out of that area will help keep existing governments stable and hopefully an area that requires little maintenance or supervision (From Wagner's point of view).
BTW - Great update. I am so enjoying this...