Wagner’s Germany: An Axis Victory TL

[The Congressman]

Oh boy, what could Japan be planning? Perhaps declaring war on the British and the British only?

 

[cortz#9]

Oh boy, what could Japan be planning? Perhaps declaring war on the British and the British only?

That would make things really, really hard for the British but Japan will have to be very careful not to drag in the US if they do.
Very careful.

 

[The Congressman]

That would make things really, really hard for the British but Japan will have to be very careful not to drag in the US if they do.
Very careful.

Dewey hasn't instituted the embargo so there's no incentive to attack the US as well. Basically the Japanese would need to restrain themselves significantly, avoid war crimes against the European POWs and stay away from the Philippines

 

[cortz#9]

Dewey hasn't instituted the embargo so there's no incentive to attack the US as well. Basically the Japanese would need to restrain themselves significantly, avoid war crimes against the European POWs and stay away from the Philippines

I agree with this but what I meant by being careful, is to insure that no trigger happy naval officer mistakenly open fire on a US ship thinking that its British. I could imagine some Japanese officers even wanting to deliberately open fire on a US ship and then claim it was a case of mistaken identity.

 

[highwayhoss]

Some years later, William Shannon, one of the most prominent reporters for the Washington Post, would remember “One could hear the subject of the war often in the conversation in bars and restaurants. While the extent of Germany’s victories aroused considerable worry, in a way, and there did seem to be a kind of consensus that it would not be good for us for Britain to be reduced too much, the magnanimous way Wagner had treated France made quite an impression. This was often favorably contrasted with the first Versailles treaty, and the way the British had violated Norwegian neutrality at the beginning and then conducted a sneak attack against their former ally. Among the elites, it would be fair to say that views leaned more towards Britain, but not to such an extent that the neutralists would permit more aid above that provided by Cash and lift, there having been some talk of greater assistance under a ‘Loan-lease’ program.”

This shows the big difference between Hitler and Wagner; by showing generosity toward France, Wagner gains support in the US and reduces the chance for intervention. It also helps that Wagner is not attacking the British directly, but only in the Atlantic and the Med, which makes him seem like less of a threat to the US.
OTOH, Churchill's bellicose actions end up alienating those in the US who might otherwise support Britain. I cannot see him staying as PM long enough to negotiate a settlement (which is unlikely considering his determination to continue the war.) I believe that after the loss of Gibraltar (a huge loss by any measure), Churchill will be forced out of office.

 

[Linense]

In the other great island empire on the other side of the globe, events were also coming to a head. The Second Sino-Japanese War, originally envisioned by Japan’s leadership as a quick and decisive victory, was now in its fifth year, with no end in sight. Despite large victories at the outset, Chiang Kai-shek’s Nationalists continued to fight stubbornly, fed by a steady flow of outside assistance arriving via the British colony of Burma, resulting in a frustrating stalemate. Finding a way to cut off this assistance and at last bring the “China Incident” to a close had thus become a main goal at Imperial General Headquarters (IGHQ). Adding to their dilemma, a large portion of essential supplies of raw materials were imported from the United States, which concurred with Britain’s disapproval of Japanese expansionism. The Fall of France and its subsequent joining of the Axis, along with the resultant basing rights in Indochina, had been welcome, but had not solved the problem. “Resistance on the part of Chiang’s forces remains formidable,” read a summation of one of the meetings at IGHQ, “and regrettably it does not appear that a mere continuation of measures taken so far will suffice.” It was the entry of the Soviet Union into the Axis Alliance which gave them the opening they had been waiting for.

What? That if it's a great surprising update.

Update very very soon!!

 

[cortz#9]

This shows the big difference between Hitler and Wagner; by showing generosity toward France, Wagner gains support in the US and reduces the chance for intervention. It also helps that Wagner is not attacking the British directly, but only in the Atlantic and the Med, which makes him seem like less of a threat to the US.
OTOH, Churchill's bellicose actions end up alienating those in the US who might otherwise support Britain. I cannot see him staying as PM long enough to negotiate a settlement (which is unlikely considering his determination to continue the war.) I believe that after the loss of Gibraltar (a huge loss by any measure), Churchill will be forced out of office.

I agree, losing the "Rock" would be a huge loss of face, I don't think the British people would forgive Churchill for losing it.

 

[Jaenera Targaryen]

The Soviets are going to join the Axis? Didn't see that coming...or how...I suppose all we can do is wait. I can say though that it probably won't last. Ideology aside, Wagner's goal is German dominance in Europe, yes? Russia's sheer size and resources means it will dominate any bloc it joins, which would be problematic to say the least for Germany.

Oh boy, what could Japan be planning? Perhaps declaring war on the British and the British only?

Seconded

 

[Tonrich]

Nice!

” It was the entry of the Soviet Union into the Axis Alliance which gave them the opening they had been waiting for.

Wow, can't see this working. No advantage for the SU at all. They can't expand into the Balkans now, and Asia would be a no with they're new buddies of the rising sun. The only direction they could go would be the middle east which is not logistically easy for them to get to.

This should be interesting...

 

[Mackus]

I initially though "USSR entry into Axis" referred to TTL Molotov-Ribbentrop pact equivalent, but that can't be it given its mentioned after fall of France.

 

[Linense]

Nice!



Wow, can't see this working. No advantage for the SU at all. They can't expand into the Balkans now, and Asia would be a no with they're new buddies of the rising sun. The only direction they could go would be the middle east which is not logistically easy for them to get to.

This should be interesting...

Perhaps Axis Alliance sells Stalin that Soviet expansionism will directed towards Persia, Afghanistan and British India, achieving an old aspiration of Russian imperialism: an exit to the warm seas, preferably in an area abundant oil.

 

[Keb]

Wow, can't see this working. No advantage for the SU at all. They can't expand into the Balkans now, and Asia would be a no with they're new buddies of the rising sun. The only direction they could go would be the middle east which is not logistically easy for them to get to.

This should be interesting...

There was an offer IOTL ... the Soviets were interested in a full alliance, or were at least claiming to be. It was in mid-1940, but the negotiations broke down. For one, Hitler was planning an invasion. Two, the Soviets were demanding bases in Bulgaria (and, presumably, a free hand in Turkey and the Middle East). IOTL, the Germans weren't interested, being in the process of planning Barbarossa. There was also the possibility that the offer wasn't entirely honest - the Soviets might have been trying to buy time to re-arm. Both sides were aware that there would be a confrontation, it's just that Stalin and the rest of the Soviet leadership expected it in 1945 or so, viewing an attempt on the Soviet Union while at war with Britain to be folly of the highest order (not incorrect, mind, but rational actions weren't exactly the hallmark of the Nazi regime).

That said, I'm not sure such a declaration would be wise. Making a deal only to violate it immediately would tank what legitimacy Germany gained ITTL and that was one of the major weaknesses of the Nazi regime OTL - nobody believed they could trust a word given by Hitler.

 

[Gudestein]

There was an offer IOTL ... the Soviets were interested in a full alliance, or were at least claiming to be. It was in mid-1940, but the negotiations broke down. For one, Hitler was planning an invasion. Two, the Soviets were demanding bases in Bulgaria (and, presumably, a free hand in Turkey and the Middle East). IOTL, the Germans weren't interested, being in the process of planning Barbarossa. There was also the possibility that the offer wasn't entirely honest - the Soviets might have been trying to buy time to re-arm. Both sides were aware that there would be a confrontation, it's just that Stalin and the rest of the Soviet leadership expected it in 1945 or so, viewing an attempt on the Soviet Union while at war with Britain to be folly of the highest order (not incorrect, mind, but rational actions weren't exactly the hallmark of the Nazi regime).

That said, I'm not sure such a declaration would be wise. Making a deal only to violate it immediately would tank what legitimacy Germany gained ITTL and that was one of the major weaknesses of the Nazi regime OTL - nobody believed they could trust a word given by Hitler.

I am not at all sure this is where Wagner is going with this, but leave that alone. I think I commented upon the give away Turkey concept. A devious Hitler (not too unlikely) could have made this deal and then come to Turkeys aid when they were attacked by SU.

 

[Benjamin the Donkey]

I

Oh boy, what could Japan be planning? Perhaps declaring war on the British and the British only?

I've never understood why Japan didn't follow Germany into war with Britain and France in OTL. They already had an alliance--primarily defensive, it's true, but no one would have been surprised if they supported their ally. The much-needed resources of Southeast Asia and Indonesia would have been theirs for the taking, and it would have played perfectly into Japanese anti-Western-imperialism propaganda. It's certainly a better option than starting an unwinnable war with the world's greatest economic power.

 

[TRH]

I

I've never understood why Japan didn't follow Germany into war with Britain and France in OTL. They already had an alliance--primarily defensive, it's true, but no one would have been surprised if they supported their ally. The much-needed resources of Southeast Asia and Indonesia would have been theirs for the taking, and it would have played perfectly into Japanese anti-Western-imperialism propaganda. It's certainly a better option than starting an unwinnable war with the world's greatest economic power.

Allied sanctions against them didn't become intolerable until after their bloodless takeover of French Indochina in 1940. Before that, the war with China took precedence over other concerns.

 

[Tonrich]

I

I've never understood why Japan didn't follow Germany into war with Britain and France in OTL. They already had an alliance--primarily defensive, it's true, but no one would have been surprised if they supported their ally. The much-needed resources of Southeast Asia and Indonesia would have been theirs for the taking, and it would have played perfectly into Japanese anti-Western-imperialism propaganda. It's certainly a better option than starting an unwinnable war with the world's greatest economic power.

I agree. I never understood the Japanese (long term) thinking. They get embroiled in a land war they can't possibly ever totally win in China, a country that has very little natural resources to feed their economy. It drags on for years basically doing nothing but draining resources. Then they don't jump at the chance to take the Dutch East Indies and the Malay peninsula with their wealth of natural resources that would have basically made Japan economically independent.

Imagine if in December 1941 the Japanese would have owned the DEI and the Malay Pen for 1 1/2 years prior to them getting involved with the US! That sounds like a very interesting TL.

 

[TRH]

I agree. I never understood the Japanese (long term) thinking. They get embroiled in a land war they can't possibly ever totally win in China, a country that has very little natural resources to feed their economy. It drags on for years basically doing nothing but draining resources. Then they don't jump at the chance to take the Dutch East Indies and the Malay peninsula with their wealth of natural resources that would have basically made Japan economically independent.

Imagine if in December 1941 the Japanese would have owned the DEI and the Malay Pen for 1 1/2 years prior to them getting involved with the US! That sounds like a very interesting TL.

There's no earthly reason to assume Roosevelt would have just sat there while the Japanese invaded the DEI, let alone the Malay peninsula too. Plus, without the ability to build up strength in French Indochina for a year beforehand, their invasion wouldn't have gone nearly as smoothly.

 

[Tonrich]

There's no earthly reason to assume Roosevelt would have just sat there while the Japanese invaded the DEI, let alone the Malay peninsula too. Plus, without the ability to build up strength in French Indochina for a year beforehand, their invasion wouldn't have gone nearly as smoothly.

I disagree with you. While Roosevelt would have wanted to do something, there is no way in the world the public would have supported him if Japan didn't touch the Philippines or directly attack American interests. I've seen may posters make references that Roosevelt could manufacture any result he wanted, but the truth is that the US population wanted no part of WWII until Japan attacked Pearl Harbor. In fact I would guess that if Japan didn't attack in 1941 it would have been 1944 before the US entered the war (And I think that's a maybe).

I'll give you your point on the pre-basing staging area out of French Indo China, but they could have started with Borneo and worked their way South and West. Borneo was not a hard target from a defensive standpoint however they would have had to develop base facilities as that region was pretty wild at that time.

 

[Tonrich]

In fact if Japan didn't attack the US I doubt Roosevelt would have been re-elected in 1944. If the country wasn't at war I think people were ready to see him leave office.

 

[Queeney]

It was the entry of the Soviet Union into the Axis Alliance which gave them the opening they had been waiting for.

Soviets in Persia! Japanese in Burma! Italians in Egypt!

Regardless of what will happen next, there seem to be some rough days ahead for the British Empire.