Wagner’s Germany: An Axis Victory TL

[Tonrich]

Most of the German bomber flight path to attack the Suez Canal or Red Sea shipping would be over flat land in Egypt. British radar stations and ground observers would spot the German bombers shortly after they crossed into British held territory. The radar stations would vector British fighters to intercept the bombers. Bombers flying low-altitude or on the deck would be easy meat for the British fighters diving on them. German bomber losses would be huge.

Good point! They would also not get optimal performance, but I assumed there would be open lanes.

 

[JamesK]

Really, I didn't know that. I guess that's one of those things I always assumed, but never checked out. Thank you.

The FW 190 had drop tanks, starting with the FW 190A-8. This link accesses a website that covers specs of the various FW 190 models in great depth.
http://www.ww2warbirds.net/ww2htmls/fockfw190.html#fockfw1900

Interestingly, the website asserts that the FW 190A-8 version had a greater range with drop tanks than later FW 190 models, up to a maximum with drop tanks (at no doubt cruise speed and optimal altitude) of 915 miles. Subsequent FW 190 models were faster and more maneuverable but their max range with drop tanks was reduced significantly in favor of higher maneuverability and acceleration in dogfights. It's important to note that the FW 190A-8 fuel range of 915 miles would be at a cruise speed of 298 mph at 6,560 feet altitude, which rarely was what the aircraft flew in combat. The maximum speed of 408 mph was at 20,670 feet altitude, without the aerodynamic drag of drop tanks, and using the turbocharger guzzling fuel like mad. Max range at 408 mph was no doubt far less than the cruise speed 915 mile range, likely less than half. And of course dogfighting means dropping the extra fuel in the drop tanks and careening madly around the sky turbocharging and guzzling fuel like mad. So, though the Suez Canal and Red Sea are within range of FW 90s with drop tanks sortieing from El Alamein frontline FOBs, it's likely that the real world combat conditions could make the actual range fall short since little of the flight time would likely be spent at the optimal cruise speed and altitude.

 

[AJE]

The FW 190 had drop tanks, starting with the FW 190A-8. This link accesses a website that covers specs of the various FW 190 versions in great depth.
http://www.ww2warbirds.net/ww2htmls/fockfw190.html#fockfw1900

Interestingly, the website asserts that the FW 190A-8 version had a greater range with drop tanks than later FW 190 models, up to a maximum with drop tanks (at no doubt cruise speed and optimal altitude) of 915 miles. Subsequent FW 190 models were faster and more maneuverable but their max range with drop tanks was reduced significantly in favor of higher maneuverability and acceleration in dogfights. It's important to note that the FW 190A-8 fuel range of 915 miles would be at a cruise speed of 298 mph at 6,560 feet altitude, which rarely was what the aircraft flew at in combat. The maximum speed of 408 mph was at 20,670 feet altitude, without the aerodynamic drag of drop tanks, and using the turbocharger guzzling fuel like mad. Max range at 408 mph was no doubt far less than the cruise speed 915 mile range, likely less than half. And of course dogfighting means dropping the extra fuel in the drop tanks and careening madly around the sky turbocharging and guzzling fuel like mad. So, though the Suez Canal and Red Sea are within range of FW 90s with drop tanks sortieing from El Alamein frontline FOBs, it's likely that the real world conditions would make the actual range fall far short since little of the flight time would likely be spent at the optimal cruise speed and altitude.

As long as the 190's 500 mi range without drop tanks is enough to get back to the FOB after maneuvering and fighting near the target (if the FOB is near El Alamein, then it's workable), the strategy would work. I don't think it could have much of an effect on Allied supplies, because there were many routes that supplies took to get to the North African front, but bomber strikes escorted by FW 190s would be technically possible.

 

[JamesK]

As long as the 190's 500 mi range without drop tanks is enough to get back to the FOB after maneuvering and fighting near the target (if the FOB is near El Alamein, then it's workable), the strategy would work. I don't think it could have much of an effect on Allied supplies, because there were many routes that supplies took to get to the North African front, but bomber strikes escorted by FW 190s would be technically possible.

I definitely agree that it's technically possible to bomb the Canal and Red Sea with FW 190 drop tanked fighter escorts and that it's also not likely to significantly slow or reduce the flow of supplies reaching the British supply depots around Alexandria. The Luftwaffe would likely suffer major bomber and fighter losses conducting the Suez Canal and Red Sea long-range bombing campaign. Plus the bombing campaign would expend a lot of scarce Luftwaffe supplies, equipment and personnel that could have been used in ways that better supported Manstein's forthcoming ground offensive.

Despite Malta falling, and in spite of local German air superiority making Tobruk more effective as a German supply port, the inadequate Libyan ports and long desert road supply lines would still be major bottlenecks to fully supplying Manstein's DAK and the desert Luftwaffe.

It might be much better to split the Luftwaffe's limited deliveries of supplies and equipment into two portions. Expend one portion on a steady campaign of air attacks on British El Alamein ground defenses and rear area FOBs, front line supply dumps, and the British logistical tail all the way back to Alexandria. Use the other portion to build up supply reserves in Luftwaffe FOB supply dumps in preparation for a maximum effort tactical air campaign in support of Manstein's planned El Alamein breakthrough and drive to Alexandria. And don't forget to send a few long range bombers on random nuisance night raids that force the British to divert combat aircraft, AA units and radar stations from the El Alamein front to defend high-value locations between Alexandria and the Red Sea.

The El Alamein air war would be a real knock down slug fest, a mini Battle of Britain in the skies from El Alamein to Alexandria. The British Desert Air Force (DAF) in the OTL was twice the size of the Luftwaffe in late 1941 in the Libyan/Egyptian theatre, with many good British aircraft. The Luftwaffe's desert air force is much larger ITTL than OTL, perhaps even as large or larger than the DAF. But the DAF in OTL and ITTL had none of the supplies constraints the Luftwaffe does in OTL and TTL. When Manstein launches his offensive the Luftwaffe should have carefully husbanded it supplies to enable it to surge all its aircraft in a maximum effort that will draw down its carefully stockpiled fuel, munitions and repair parts supplies much faster than the Libyan supply lines can replenish them. After some days of nonstop day and night sorties the Luftwaffe will have to cut back on the sorties due to looming supply shortages. Hopefully Manstein's offensive will by then have broken through the El Alamein defenses and be well on its way to capturing Alexandria.

The DAF does not have supply line bottlenecks. Any supply shortages will be the result of Luftwaffe attacks on British supply depot and transport infrastructure before and during Manstein's offensive.

In July 1941 IOTL Air Marshall Sir Arthur Tedder took command of DAF, a British military commander arguably of the same calibre as O'Connor and Manstein. If Tedder is in command ITTL the DAF will fight hard and smart against both the Luftwaffe and Manstein's ground forces.

This link has interesting details on the OTL DAF.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Desert_Air_Force

 

[CrimsonKing]

Excellent update Crimson. Like the way your incorporating ideas and suggestions from your readers, also like that this is not a Nazi curbstomp and that O'Conner is giving as good as he's receiving. Well done.

Thanks! I'm very glad you're enjoying it and I am indeed trying to take into account the issues brought up by readers and setbacks (which are inevitable in all but the most completely lopsided conflicts) for the Axis.

So Malta's fallen. A coup for both the Germans and Italians.
Are the Germans going to try and stir up the Arabs against Britain? And where exactly are the French fighting?

That could backfire badly on the Italians, Spanish and French. If the Germans didn't have to consider their European colonialist allies, they'd be handing out weapons to every able-bodied Arab male in the vicinity and pointing them towards the Brits. But the risk is, those guns would very quickly be pointed at the Latin powers too.

For the Germans, balancing supporting anti-British insurgencies with the demands of colonialist allies is undoubtedly one of the trickiest diplomatic issues currently. The net result is that, so far, the Abwehr has developed extensive contacts with Arab pro-Axis movements, but has not begun to assist them in an all-out way.

France's main military role is the aerial front with Britain, which both helps to tie down as much of the RAF as possible in England itself and frees more of the Luftwaffe for either rest and refit in Germany or transfer to the Mediterranean. The French also assist in the Med, primarily in a logistical capacity.

It's a very great update. Moreover, what is happening in Gibraltar? It still suffering from the siege of the Axis forces or has already fallen into Spanish hands (aided by German, Italian and French troops).

Gibraltar is still under siege, but will not remain so for much longer.

Great Update!

I think taking Malta is a huge plus from OTL because it takes away the Allies eyes in an extremely sensitive area. Now they need to take Alexandria and Suez and close the British Navy out of the Eastern Med. I once read that if 25% of the supplies that had gotten sunk on the way to North Africa had actually reached port and been available to Rommel, he would have won at El-Alamein.

Another HUGE factor is that the Regia Marina has all the oil it needs for training, patrols and interdiction. This is something the British never really had to deal with. With the Luftwaffe in control of the skies they have to be reluctant to commit to an all out battle.

Another thing that could be forgotten here; the German army just completed a successful combined amphibious assault and I'm sure learned much. Does that start to make the British nervous and keep a little more in the home islands? (i.e. not available in other global locations)

Also if the British lose Egypt/Suez what does that do to/for the Far East contingent of the Axis?

The British probably will become a little more nervous about the home islands' safety, but not much at the moment. The Germans fall far short of the number of landing craft and support vessels necessary for a cross-Channel landing to be logistically viable, and the RN's superiority over the KM is such that it would still be able to force its way into the Channel even in the event of Axis air superiority. What will start to make them somewhat more worried (which gets back to Linense's question) is the possibility that once Gibraltar is under Spanish control, the Italian and some part of the French navy which was not sunk by the British air raid would be able to move into the Atlantic along the coast to northern French ports. All that said, given how stretched Britain is at the moment, the stationing of even a few more assets could be significant.

The fall of Egypt would be a major boon to the Far Eastern Axis. Instability throughout the British Empire would immediately rise, and London would start stripping every force it thought it could spare from other theaters to protect its oil source.

I'm going to try to create a TV Tropes for this

Very much appreciated.

If Libya was more important than OTL as well as with closer German-Italian ties from 1938, why wouldn't the British respond ITTL by improving their Malta defenses prior to the start of WW2? Maybe the German-Italians can brush them aside but the British defenses shouldn't be as weak as OTL.

EDIT: OP did indicate stronger British defenses in his recent update as note (b).

Good point, the British would have made some changes or done things differently here. I'm sure Crimson will tell us what those changes were.

The British response was mainly in the form of strengthening the air defense system, such as stationing more fighters and increasing the amount of radar, as well as constructing more fortifications and an increased naval presence.

The thing to keep in mind is this - the Wallies, in both OTL 1940 and in TTL 1941, never seriously considered the possibility that France would fall so rapidly. They were expecting a repeat of the Western Front from WW1, albeit with new tactics and updated technology. If it had held as it did in 1914, the Mediterranean defenses at Malta and elsewhere would have been more than adequate, but as it collapsed, the assets the Axis was free to bring to bear, in combination with the necessity of maintaining the defenses of the British Isles, were overwhelming.

He might have metioned what the RN was doing while the Italian Battlefleet was concentrated round Malta

A sortie by the RN in defense of Malta would not have ended well. By that time, the Axis had acquired complete air superiority and the British ships would have been brought under sustained and unrelenting torpedo and dive bomber attack. Granted that the Italian pilots, of even the improved Italy of TTL, are not as skilled as those of the IJN, and the German pilots at best average in anti-shipping operations, the RN force would probably not be completely sunk from the air as Force Z was, but a large part of it would and the rest would be heavily damaged. It would then have been engaged by the completely undamaged Italian fleet and destroyed. The invasion itself would then have proceeded a short while later after whatever minor repairs to the Italian ships were necessary had been conducted.

Manstein's DAK desert forces are now facing a similar problem to that faced by Rommel's DAK in OTL. The DAK in the OTL and TTL both have long logistical tails that make it difficult to provide adequate supplies for a DAK offensive into Egypt. Granted, ITTL the seizure of Malta shortens the logistical tail a bit and reduces ship losses to British attacks too. Nevertheless the primary problem remains much the same as in OTL: Mansteins's forces at El Alamein are at the logistical tail end of a long vulnerable desert supply line that stretches back 341 road miles to Tobruk, 629 miles to Benghazi, and 1108 miles to Tripoli, while the British are at the logistical tail end of a short much less vulnerable desert supply line that stretches back a mere 70 miles to Alexandria.

Two major initiatives could help mitigate Manstein's logistical problems.

The first initiative would be a massive Luftwaffe and DAK ground forces effort to establish defensible major airbases around Tobruk. These airbases would handle fighter and bomber aircraft maintenance and repair, sorties and refueling. Airbase aircraft would maintain day and night CAPs to shoot down British aircraft attacking the airbases and supply truck convoys traveling from distant Libyan supply ports to Tobruk and Manstein's front line forces. Airbase fighter and bomber aircraft would also conduct heavy day and night attacks on British forward air bases (FOBs) to stop them sortieing and refueling aircraft. Luftwaffe and DAK forces would establish their own fighter and bomber FOBs behind Manstein's front line positions. These FOBs would handle refueling, rearming and emergency repairs for fighters and bombers searching for and attacking British supply depots and troop positions at and behind British front lines and east to Alexandria. The German FOBs would also stage and support sorties attacking British supply ships found in Egyptian ports and at sea in the eastern Med.

A large portion of the Luftwaffe forces could be Fliegerkorps X aircraft moved from Sicily bases after the successful invasion of Malta.

The second initiative involves maximizing supply ship use of the port of Tobruk. The Tobruk port would be protected under the new air superiority umbrella the Luftwaffe airbases established in the Tobruk region. The supplies being successfully landed at Tobruk would significantly improve the rate of resupply of Luftwaffe and DAK forces from Tobruk east to the El Alamein front lines.

With the Luftwaffe air campaign establishing regional air superiority, and the extra supplies moving through Tobruk's port, Manstein's supply problems should be substantially mitigated. It should enable Manstein to amass enough supplies to initiate and sustain a major offensive to break through the El Alamein British defenses and then keep the pressure on to push 70 miles to capture Alexandria.

The links below are to two wiki about the Western Desert Campaign. The sections on "Supply" are of particular interest regarding the major problems that Manstein's forces would face if Germany didn't establish regional air superiority, reduce supply truck convoy losses and maximize flow of supplies through Tobruk's port.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_Desert_Campaign
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_Desert_Campaign#

The very real supply problems which you point out were one factor why TTL's First Battle of El Alamein was an Axis defeat. The Axis will undoubtedly begin to mitigate those problems with the suggested initiatives, which the rail network which was constructed in Libya in TTL will assist.

Did Egypt have the required armaments industry to sustain a modern military at the time? If not then the British will be forced to run the gauntlet through the Suez Canal from the Red Sea at the very least from Australia just to supply their forces. Strategically, the Axis only has to do so via Italy.

If the OP is planning to introduce the intermodal container (which can also solve the logistical problems) at some point, now is the time (well, maybe during Barbarossa, but still, they both have serious logistical issues).

Coastal defenses OTL were very similar to seaborne versions of Eben-Emael and the Maginot line, and can be defeated the same way- by landing glider-borne troops on the roof and sealing off the few entrances, turning the fortifications into a giant tomb. Even if the British did have AA defenses, their ammunition was in poor shape, as the sinking of PoW and Repulse shows.

Good points as well. The British are clearly under considerable strain.

Suggestions:

1) More on the U-boat campaign.
2) What's Axis France doing? Are they jamming in Central and West Africa against the British and the Belgians? Cooling their heels (apart from the distraction air campaign over the Channel Coast)...?
3) What's Japan doing, apart from the war in China?

I know I should cover the U-boat war more. The Battle of the Atlantic will be the subject of either the next update or the one afterwards.

The French are harassing the Wallies in their colonies. It's not a major drain, but more than a minor annoyance.

Japan is consolidating its position in Indochina and observing developments closely.

Egypt wasn't a major manufacturing center for war machines, munitions or fuel. They could supply some food and commissary goods and that was about it. Everything else had to be shipped in by freighter or tanker via the Red Sea and the Suez Canal.

The Suez Canal is over 300 miles from where the nearest Luftwaffe FOBs might be located to the west of the El Alamein front. Heinkel 111 medium bombers can reach the Canal and the upper section of the Red Sea. Unfortunately no German fighter (even with drop tanks) can reach the Suez canal from the FOBs without running out of fuel on the return. The Heinkels would have to attack without fighter escort for the latter part of their their bombing runs, making them easy prey for British fighters. British radar would see the Heinkels coming shortly after the bombers took off from the German FOBs, and vector British fighters to intercept shortly after the Heinkels left behind their short-legged German fighter escorts. The Suez Canal and the Red Sea, and the huge numbers of freighters and tankers using the Sea and Canal to bring supplies to the British forces in Egypt and the Med, will continue to be safely out of effective range of Luftwaffe air power until the Germans take Alexandria.

When Alexandria falls, and the huge port facilities there are repaired and operational, the German land and air forces will be able to increase manyfold in size. The Libyan logistical bottleneck will be eliminated that previously constrained German forces to only those quantities of soldiers and equipment that could be logistically sustained by slow truck convoys hauling meagre amounts of supplies over the vast desert road distances between the Libyan ports and the German El Alamein front lines.

yes, but what happens if a massive Egyptian nationalist uprising breaks out in Alexandria if the Germans start handing Egyptian territory to their Italian allies?

The Germans are using the Fw 187 as a long-range escort fighter ITTL.

But wouldn't the desert offer the perfect "fly low under the radar" opportunity for the HE 111's to take a southern route to the Suez and create havoc? Particularly if the were flying early morning or dusk time frames. Just damaging a few locks in Suez would severely hamper the British supply line.

Did Germany have the technology to run pipeline? This route and terrain seems to be perfectly suited to running a pipeline under ground for gasoline and water from Tobrouk as far East as possible. Every mile they push a pipeline saves two miles in round trip of a supply truck.

At 341 miles, traveling 30mph it would take a truck 11 1/2 hours one way (23 hrs round trip). This takes more than 1 driver per trip. If you can push a pipeline even 100 miles you just took the trip of a gas truck down to 8 hrs. You can now have a truck do a round trip in a 16 hr day. This, although a long day, is achievable with 1 driver.

The Suez canal has no locks.

What aircraft are present on the desert front in the German/Italian and the British air forces ITTL in 1941 and on into 1942? Obviously the answer to this question will make a huge difference in the desert war.

There were some long-range heavy fighters operating in 1941 IOTL in the desert. The British had the Beaufighter IOTL, which like all long-range heavy fighters, was no match for front line fighters. The German ME109 and FW190 were much more maneuverable in a dogfight than a Beaufighter. IOTL the Germans had the Bf 110 long-range heavy fighter. The Bf 110 had a strange mission profile: the Germans designed it to escort long-range bombers but then use its 348 mph speed to run away from encountered fighters rather than dogfight. This run away tactic barely worked against the 340 mph Hurricane but failed against the 363 mph Spitfire. In a dogfight with a Hurricane or Spitfire the Bf 110 routinely lost due to the fact that like the Beaufighter it wasn't as maneuverable in a dogfight as the British fighters. Long-range heavy fighters just weren't capable of providing escort fighter cover for long-range bombers.

The Fw 187 was an interesting aircraft IOTL. Though originally designed as a single-seat fighter, it was modified to add a second seat which impaired its performance. Only a few were built in OTL before production was canceled in favor of other designs. Most reports put the top speed of the Bf 187 at 328 mph, though a single-seat version might have added 10 mph to that and reached the same speed as the Hurricane. But even a single-seat Fw 187 would have been easy meat for a Hurricane or Spitfire for the same reasons that the Beaufighter was easy meat for 109s and 190s: less maneuverable.

Here's an interesting link to a speculative article discussing what might have happened if the Fw 187 had taken a different path in its development.
http://forum.axishistory.com/viewtopic.php?t=124386

Most of the German bomber flight path to attack the Suez Canal or Red Sea shipping would be over flat land in Egypt. British radar stations and ground observers would spot the German bombers shortly after they crossed into British held territory. The radar stations would vector British fighters to intercept the bombers. Bombers flying low-altitude or on the deck would be easy meat for the British fighters diving on them. German bomber losses would be huge.

The Fw 187 was supposedly designed to be (and allegedly was) just as agile as a single-seat aircraft.

The front line fighter ITTL is the fw-190 which has an operational range of 500 miles, not enough to reach Suez and back but with drop tanks could easily make the trip. So a question for Crimson, has the Luftwaffe ITTL under Wever developed drop tanks?

Really, I didn't know that. I guess that's one of those things I always assumed, but never checked out. Thank you.

Good point! They would also not get optimal performance, but I assumed there would be open lanes.

The FW 190 had drop tanks, starting with the FW 190A-8. This link accesses a website that covers specs of the various FW 190 models in great depth.
http://www.ww2warbirds.net/ww2htmls/fockfw190.html#fockfw1900

Interestingly, the website asserts that the FW 190A-8 version had a greater range with drop tanks than later FW 190 models, up to a maximum with drop tanks (at no doubt cruise speed and optimal altitude) of 915 miles. Subsequent FW 190 models were faster and more maneuverable but their max range with drop tanks was reduced significantly in favor of higher maneuverability and acceleration in dogfights. It's important to note that the FW 190A-8 fuel range of 915 miles would be at a cruise speed of 298 mph at 6,560 feet altitude, which rarely was what the aircraft flew in combat. The maximum speed of 408 mph was at 20,670 feet altitude, without the aerodynamic drag of drop tanks, and using the turbocharger guzzling fuel like mad. Max range at 408 mph was no doubt far less than the cruise speed 915 mile range, likely less than half. And of course dogfighting means dropping the extra fuel in the drop tanks and careening madly around the sky turbocharging and guzzling fuel like mad. So, though the Suez Canal and Red Sea are within range of FW 90s with drop tanks sortieing from El Alamein frontline FOBs, it's likely that the real world combat conditions could make the actual range fall short since little of the flight time would likely be spent at the optimal cruise speed and altitude.

As long as the 190's 500 mi range without drop tanks is enough to get back to the FOB after maneuvering and fighting near the target (if the FOB is near El Alamein, then it's workable), the strategy would work. I don't think it could have much of an effect on Allied supplies, because there were many routes that supplies took to get to the North African front, but bomber strikes escorted by FW 190s would be technically possible.

I definitely agree that it's technically possible to bomb the Canal and Red Sea with FW 190 drop tanked fighter escorts and that it's also not likely to significantly slow or reduce the flow of supplies reaching the British supply depots around Alexandria. The Luftwaffe would likely suffer major bomber and fighter losses conducting the Suez Canal and Red Sea long-range bombing campaign. Plus the bombing campaign would expend a lot of scarce Luftwaffe supplies, equipment and personnel that could have been used in ways that better supported Manstein's forthcoming ground offensive.

Despite Malta falling, and in spite of local German air superiority making Tobruk more effective as a German supply port, the inadequate Libyan ports and long desert road supply lines would still be major bottlenecks to fully supplying Manstein's DAK and the desert Luftwaffe.

It might be much better to split the Luftwaffe's limited deliveries of supplies and equipment into two portions. Expend one portion on a steady campaign of air attacks on British El Alamein ground defenses and rear area FOBs, front line supply dumps, and the British logistical tail all the way back to Alexandria. Use the other portion to build up supply reserves in Luftwaffe FOB supply dumps in preparation for a maximum effort tactical air campaign in support of Manstein's planned El Alamein breakthrough and drive to Alexandria. And don't forget to send a few long range bombers on random nuisance night raids that force the British to divert combat aircraft, AA units and radar stations from the El Alamein front to defend high-value locations between Alexandria and the Red Sea.

The El Alamein air war would be a real knock down slug fest, a mini Battle of Britain in the skies from El Alamein to Alexandria. The British Desert Air Force (DAF) in the OTL was twice the size of the Luftwaffe in late 1941 in the Libyan/Egyptian theatre, with many good British aircraft. The Luftwaffe's desert air force is much larger ITTL than OTL, perhaps even as large or larger than the DAF. But the DAF in OTL and ITTL had none of the supplies constraints the Luftwaffe does in OTL and TTL. When Manstein launches his offensive the Luftwaffe should have carefully husbanded it supplies to enable it to surge all its aircraft in a maximum effort that will draw down its carefully stockpiled fuel, munitions and repair parts supplies much faster than the Libyan supply lines can replenish them. After some days of nonstop day and night sorties the Luftwaffe will have to cut back on the sorties due to looming supply shortages. Hopefully Manstein's offensive will by then have broken through the El Alamein defenses and be well on its way to capturing Alexandria.

The DAF does not have supply line bottlenecks. Any supply shortages will be the result of Luftwaffe attacks on British supply depot and transport infrastructure before and during Manstein's offensive.

In July 1941 IOTL Air Marshall Sir Arthur Tedder took command of DAF, a British military commander arguably of the same calibre as O'Connor and Manstein. If Tedder is in command ITTL the DAF will fight hard and smart against both the Luftwaffe and Manstein's ground forces.

This link has interesting details on the OTL DAF.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Desert_Air_Force

I don't see the Luftwaffe attempting a strategic bombing campaign against the British deep rear in Egypt. Even with Wever, the LW is still heavily focused on ground support, a focus reinforced given the result of the last battle. The discussion has however given me some ideas...

Regarding aircraft, I would say both sides have around 1,500 each. The Axis composition is approximately 1,000 German and 500 Italian. The German planes are a mixture of Me 109, Fw 190, and Fw 187 fighters and He 118 and Ju 88 bombers. The Italian and British aircraft are the same as in OTL, and both sides have drop tanks. The main aspects about the German planes to note are that the proportion of the Fw 190 relative to the Me 109 is being increased, and the Fw 187 has proven very capable in the ground attack role and is increasingly used in that capacity.

 

[Israel]

What tropes would fit this timeline?

 

[Tonrich]

Did Germany have the technology to run pipeline? This route and terrain seems to be perfectly suited to running a pipeline under ground for gasoline and water from Tobrouk as far East as possible. Every mile they push a pipeline saves two miles in round trip of a supply truck.

At 341 miles, traveling 30mph it would take a truck 11 1/2 hours one way (23 hrs round trip). This takes more than 1 driver per trip. If you can push a pipeline even 100 miles you just took the trip of a gas truck down to 8 hrs. You can now have a truck do a round trip in a 16 hr day. This, although a long day, is achievable with 1 driver.

Does anyone know if this was possible for Germany at this time? Did they pipeline anything in the SU as they expanded their front, or was everything done by railroad?

 

[hipper]

A sortie by the RN in defense of Malta would not have ended well. By that time, the Axis had acquired complete air superiority and the British ships would have been brought under sustained and unrelenting torpedo and dive bomber attack. Granted that the Italian pilots, of even the improved Italy of TTL, are not as skilled as those of the IJN, and the German pilots at best average in anti-shipping operations, the RN force would probably not be completely sunk from the air as Force Z was, but a large part of it would and the rest would be heavily damaged. It would then have been engaged by the completely undamaged Italian fleet and destroyed. The invasion itself would then have proceeded a short while later after whatever minor repairs to the Italian ships were necessary had been conducted.

It's Your story but I don't think that there is any historical evidence that the RN would have given up Malta without a fight.

with an aircraft carrier or two the RN was bringing radar guided fighter interceptors to naval Combat which would have given the axis problems in locating the RN fleet. Hacking the shad as it's known it was this that allowed them to attack Taranto.

since the location of the landing would be known the RN could dash in overnight and seek combat at night. The Italian navy Was unprepared for night naval actions and the RN had Radar.

Again a night torpedo and dive bombing attack strike against the landing ships could be done from a range of 170 miles which would have been difficult to intercept.

Admiral Cunningham spent the War looking for the Italian Navy to fight if he had a chance to fight a fleet action he would take it. To suggest that he would have run scared of an entirely theoretical air threat is not supported by evidence.

 

[JamesK]

Thanks! I'm very glad you're enjoying it and I am indeed trying to take into account the issues brought up by readers and setbacks (which are inevitable in all but the most completely lopsided conflicts) for the Axis.





For the Germans, balancing supporting anti-British insurgencies with the demands of colonialist allies is undoubtedly one of the trickiest diplomatic issues currently. The net result is that, so far, the Abwehr has developed extensive contacts with Arab pro-Axis movements, but has not begun to assist them in an all-out way.

France's main military role is the aerial front with Britain, which both helps to tie down as much of the RAF as possible in England itself and frees more of the Luftwaffe for either rest and refit in Germany or transfer to the Mediterranean. The French also assist in the Med, primarily in a logistical capacity.



Gibraltar is still under siege, but will not remain so for much longer.



The British probably will become a little more nervous about the home islands' safety, but not much at the moment. The Germans fall far short of the number of landing craft and support vessels necessary for a cross-Channel landing to be logistically viable, and the RN's superiority over the KM is such that it would still be able to force its way into the Channel even in the event of Axis air superiority. What will start to make them somewhat more worried (which gets back to Linense's question) is the possibility that once Gibraltar is under Spanish control, the Italian and some part of the French navy which was not sunk by the British air raid would be able to move into the Atlantic along the coast to northern French ports. All that said, given how stretched Britain is at the moment, the stationing of even a few more assets could be significant.

The fall of Egypt would be a major boon to the Far Eastern Axis. Instability throughout the British Empire would immediately rise, and London would start stripping every force it thought it could spare from other theaters to protect its oil source.



Very much appreciated.





The British response was mainly in the form of strengthening the air defense system, such as stationing more fighters and increasing the amount of radar, as well as constructing more fortifications and an increased naval presence.

The thing to keep in mind is this - the Wallies, in both OTL 1940 and in TTL 1941, never seriously considered the possibility that France would fall so rapidly. They were expecting a repeat of the Western Front from WW1, albeit with new tactics and updated technology. If it had held as it did in 1914, the Mediterranean defenses at Malta and elsewhere would have been more than adequate, but as it collapsed, the assets the Axis was free to bring to bear, in combination with the necessity of maintaining the defenses of the British Isles, were overwhelming.



A sortie by the RN in defense of Malta would not have ended well. By that time, the Axis had acquired complete air superiority and the British ships would have been brought under sustained and unrelenting torpedo and dive bomber attack. Granted that the Italian pilots, of even the improved Italy of TTL, are not as skilled as those of the IJN, and the German pilots at best average in anti-shipping operations, the RN force would probably not be completely sunk from the air as Force Z was, but a large part of it would and the rest would be heavily damaged. It would then have been engaged by the completely undamaged Italian fleet and destroyed. The invasion itself would then have proceeded a short while later after whatever minor repairs to the Italian ships were necessary had been conducted.



The very real supply problems which you point out were one factor why TTL's First Battle of El Alamein was an Axis defeat. The Axis will undoubtedly begin to mitigate those problems with the suggested initiatives, which the rail network which was constructed in Libya in TTL will assist.





Good points as well. The British are clearly under considerable strain.



I know I should cover the U-boat war more. The Battle of the Atlantic will be the subject of either the next update or the one afterwards.

The French are harassing the Wallies in their colonies. It's not a major drain, but more than a minor annoyance.

Japan is consolidating its position in Indochina and observing developments closely.































I don't see the Luftwaffe attempting a strategic bombing campaign against the British deep rear in Egypt. Even with Wever, the LW is still heavily focused on ground support, a focus reinforced given the result of the last battle. The discussion has however given me some ideas...

Regarding aircraft, I would say both sides have around 1,500 each. The Axis composition is approximately 1,000 German and 500 Italian. The German planes are a mixture of Me 109, Fw 190, and Fw 187 fighters and He 118 and Ju 88 bombers. The Italian and British aircraft are the same as in OTL, and both sides have drop tanks. The main aspects about the German planes to note are that the proportion of the Fw 190 relative to the Me 109 is being increased, and the Fw 187 has proven very capable in the ground attack role and is increasingly used in that capacity.

Great details on the Axis and Allies air forces.

Not sure about the Fw 187 for ground attack, unless ITTL it's gone through major redesign that changes it from a long-range heavy fighter to a ground attack fighter/bomber, including substantial uparmoring and strengthened wings and fuselage for carrying bombs and rockets. Could be better to focus on deploying the ground attack variants of the FW 190. These fighter/bomber variants were very successful IOTL in the ground attack role. The ground attack variants mounted machine guns, cannon, rocket rails and bomb racks, and drop tanks for long-range missions. The focus on the FW 190 as the core airframe, slowly replacing the ME 109, also simplifies combat air base maintenance and repair personnel and logistics.

I notice no Ju 87 Stukas in the German desert air force? When adequately protected from enemy fighters, and operating alone at night against illuminated ground or sea targets, the Stuka was a killer precision tactical dive bomber. It could have been improved with retractable landing gear, uparmoring and a stronger engine. The He 118 on the other hand had a sketchy development history. It could dive no steeper than 50 degrees and so was intrinsically much less accurate a dive bomber than the Stuka (which has a 90 degree vertical dive performance). The He 118 was canceled after early development problems. The Japanese got a hold of two of the He 118 development aircraft and tried to fix the problems but both aircraft "disintegrated" during dive bomb testing so they abandoned the program. It's interesting to note that the Stuka was partially replaced as a ground attack bomber later in the war by a variant of the FW 190. The Stuka, in upgraded variants, continued to be used quite successfully throughout the war IOTL. The Stuka G variant gained fame on the eastern front from Kursk onward as a potent tank buster, a design personally developed by Stuka ace Hans Ulrich-Rudel. Though Rudel flew Stuka's for the entire war he also in the later part of the war split his time between Stukas and the ground attack variant of the FW 190.

I think you're quite right about a strategic bombing campaign being a lousy idea. Manstein would want to take as much of the Egyptian economic and military infrastructure intact as possible, so destroying it by a strategic bombing campaign would be counterproductive. Once Alexandria is captured the Axis will be plenty busy repairing the infrastructure demolished by British forces retreating east from El Alamein to Cairo and Suez.

I'm thinking that the Luftwaffe should focus on tactical air attacks, mostly at night, on British frontline defenses, nearby rear area supply dumps and road/rail supply transport between the El Alamein front and Alexandria. I'd use the FW 190 ground attack variants and upgraded variants of the Ju 87 Stukas. This potent duo would rain a world of hurt on British forces, severely degrading British ground and air forces ability to resist Manstein's offensive and the subsequent drive to Alexandria.

 

[Israel]

Which tropes for the TL?

 

[JamesK]

It's Your story but I don't think that there is any historical evidence that the RN would have given up Malta without a fight.

with an aircraft carrier or two the RN was bringing radar guided fighter interceptors to naval Combat which would have given the axis problems in locating the RN fleet. Hacking the shad as it's known it was this that allowed them to attack Taranto.

since the location of the landing would be known the RN could dash in overnight and seek combat at night. The Italian navy Was unprepared for night naval actions and the RN had Radar.

Again a night torpedo and dive bombing attack strike against the landing ships could be done from a range of 170 miles which would have been difficult to intercept.

Admiral Cunningham spent the War looking for the Italian Navy to fight if he had a chance to fight a fleet action he would take it. To suggest that he would have run scared of an entirely theoretical air threat is not supported by evidence.

Operation Excess was a British attempt in January 1941 to use heavy warships and a carrier to protect a Malta supply convoy.
Link to a good description of Operation Excess here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Malta_(World_War_II)#Excess_and_Illustrious_.22blitz.22

German Stukas based on Sicily had practiced bombing runs on a floating carrier deck mockup in a Sicilian bay. The Stukas were ready when the British fleet sailed into range. Though the British convoy transport ships got thorough to Malta, the British fleet was badly mauled and the RN abandoned the idea of sending carriers and heavy warships into the central Med or anywhere within range of Stukas.

The RN heavy fleet units would be far away from Malta, in the western and eastern Med, when the Germans and Italians sprang their surprise attack on Malta. The first news of the Axis attack would be panicked reports reaching British Malta HQ about German paratrooper landings. Malta would fall before RN heavy fleet units in the western and eastern Med could sortie and reach Malta to stop the amphibious landings that would take place within hours of the paratroop drops. When the RN ships did reach Maltese waters it'd be too late to save Malta. The RN heavy ships, and carriers if they brought them, would be attacked, again by Stukas, and many of the fleet units would be damaged or sunk.

 

[CrimsonKing]

What tropes would fit this timeline?

Which tropes for the TL?

I trust your judgment on this. As long as the tropes can be connected in some way to the events of the TL, it's fine.

Does anyone know if this was possible for Germany at this time? Did they pipeline anything in the SU as they expanded their front, or was everything done by railroad?

I don't recall that they ever actually did so, but I believe they planned to construct pipelines after the projected capture of the Caucasus oil fields.

Great details on the Axis and Allies air forces.

Not sure about the Fw 187 for ground attack, unless ITTL it's gone through major redesign that changes it from a long-range heavy fighter to a ground attack fighter/bomber, including substantial uparmoring and strengthened wings and fuselage for carrying bombs and rockets. Could be better to focus on deploying the ground attack variants of the FW 190. These fighter/bomber variants were very successful IOTL in the ground attack role. The ground attack variants mounted machine guns, cannon, rocket rails and bomb racks, and drop tanks for long-range missions. The focus on the FW 190 as the core airframe, slowly replacing the ME 109, also simplifies combat air base maintenance and repair personnel and logistics.

I notice no Ju 87 Stukas in the German desert air force? When adequately protected from enemy fighters, and operating alone at night against illuminated ground or sea targets, the Stuka was a killer precision tactical dive bomber. It could have been improved with retractable landing gear, uparmoring and a stronger engine. The He 118 on the other hand had a sketchy development history. It could dive no steeper than 50 degrees and so was intrinsically much less accurate a dive bomber than the Stuka (which has a 90 degree vertical dive performance). The He 118 was canceled after early development problems. The Japanese got a hold of two of the He 118 development aircraft and tried to fix the problems but both aircraft "disintegrated" during dive bomb testing so they abandoned the program. It's interesting to note that the Stuka was partially replaced as a ground attack bomber later in the war by a variant of the FW 190. The Stuka, in upgraded variants, continued to be used quite successfully throughout the war IOTL. The Stuka G variant gained fame on the eastern front from Kursk onward as a potent tank buster, a design personally developed by Stuka ace Hans Ulrich-Rudel. Though Rudel flew Stuka's for the entire war he also in the later part of the war split his time between Stukas and the ground attack variant of the FW 190.

I think you're quite right about a strategic bombing campaign being a lousy idea. Manstein would want to take as much of the Egyptian economic and military infrastructure intact as possible, so destroying it by a strategic bombing campaign would be counterproductive. Once Alexandria is captured the Axis will be plenty busy repairing the infrastructure demolished by British forces retreating east from El Alamein to Cairo and Suez.

I'm thinking that the Luftwaffe should focus on tactical air attacks, mostly at night, on British frontline defenses, nearby rear area supply dumps and road/rail supply transport between the El Alamein front and Alexandria. I'd use the FW 190 ground attack variants and upgraded variants of the Ju 87 Stukas. This potent duo would rain a world of hurt on British forces, severely degrading British ground and air forces ability to resist Manstein's offensive and the subsequent drive to Alexandria.

For the Fw 187, from what I understand, both the P 38 and Me 110 (which every source I have come across evaluates as inferior to the 187) proved capable in the ground attack role, so that was what I was basing the assessment on. It's certainly correct that the ground attack versions of the Fw 190 will soon gain more prominence, although the currently projected future ground attack aircraft is the Hs 129 (with decent engines).

For the Ju 87 vs He 118, there was a discussion on this thread a few months back about the circumstances under which the former was chosen, and the conclusion was that the decision happened in the context of the increasing influence of Udet in the months after Wever's death, which was butterflied away in TTL.

Fully agree on the rest.

It's Your story but I don't think that there is any historical evidence that the RN would have given up Malta without a fight.

with an aircraft carrier or two the RN was bringing radar guided fighter interceptors to naval Combat which would have given the axis problems in locating the RN fleet. Hacking the shad as it's known it was this that allowed them to attack Taranto.

since the location of the landing would be known the RN could dash in overnight and seek combat at night. The Italian navy Was unprepared for night naval actions and the RN had Radar.

Again a night torpedo and dive bombing attack strike against the landing ships could be done from a range of 170 miles which would have been difficult to intercept.

Admiral Cunningham spent the War looking for the Italian Navy to fight if he had a chance to fight a fleet action he would take it. To suggest that he would have run scared of an entirely theoretical air threat is not supported by evidence.

Operation Excess was a British attempt in January 1941 to use heavy warships and a carrier to protect a Malta supply convoy.
Link to a good description of Operation Excess here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Malta_(World_War_II)#Excess_and_Illustrious_.22blitz.22

German Stukas based on Sicily had practiced bombing runs on a floating carrier deck mockup in a Sicilian bay. The Stukas were ready when the British fleet sailed into range. Though the British convoy transport ships got thorough to Malta, the British fleet was badly mauled and the RN abandoned the idea of sending carriers and heavy warships into the central Med or anywhere within range of Stukas.

The RN heavy fleet units would be far away from Malta, in the western and eastern Med, when the Germans and Italians sprang their surprise attack on Malta. The first news of the Axis attack would be panicked reports reaching British Malta HQ about German paratrooper landings. Malta would fall before RN heavy fleet units in the western and eastern Med could sortie and reach Malta to stop the amphibious landings that would take place within hours of the paratroop drops. When the RN ships did reach Maltese waters it'd be too late to save Malta. The RN heavy ships, and carriers if they brought them, would be attacked, again by Stukas, and many of the fleet units would be damaged or sunk.

The distances of the Mediterranean are indeed considerable, and are another factor which would act against a timely RN response.

 

[AJE]

I don't see the Luftwaffe attempting a strategic bombing campaign against the British deep rear in Egypt. Even with Wever, the LW is still heavily focused on ground support, a focus reinforced given the result of the last battle. The discussion has however given me some ideas...

I wonder if using Luftwaffe paratroops to land behind enemy lines and cut off British forces would be a good idea. Perhaps supported with Me 321 Gigant gliders carrying Panzer IV tanks to give them a fighting chance against Allied counteroffensives.

 

[Jotun]

Could the Germans take a leaf out of the Brit OTL book and send a kind of LRDG (long range desert group) to North Africa? At this time, the Brandenburgers were regiment strength. The Brandenburgers had a sub-unit earmarked for the Arab-speaking parts of the world, the 2nd battalion.

Or does the Bau-/Lehrbataillon zbV 800 not exist ITTL?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brandenburgers

 

[hipper]

Operation Excess was a British attempt in January 1941 to use heavy warships and a carrier to protect a Malta supply convoy.
Link to a good description of Operation Excess here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Malta_(World_War_II)#Excess_and_Illustrious_.22blitz.22

German Stukas based on Sicily had practiced bombing runs on a floating carrier deck mockup in a Sicilian bay. The Stukas were ready when the British fleet sailed into range. Though the British convoy transport ships got thorough to Malta, the British fleet was badly mauled and the RN abandoned the idea of sending carriers and heavy warships into the central Med or anywhere within range of Stukas.

The RN heavy fleet units would be far away from Malta, in the western and eastern Med, when the Germans and Italians sprang their surprise attack on Malta. The first news of the Axis attack would be panicked reports reaching British Malta HQ about German paratrooper landings. Malta would fall before RN heavy fleet units in the western and eastern Med could sortie and reach Malta to stop the amphibious landings that would take place within hours of the paratroop drops. When the RN ships did reach Maltese waters it'd be too late to save Malta. The RN heavy ships, and carriers if they brought them, would be attacked, again by Stukas, and many of the fleet units would be damaged or sunk.

After illustrious was damaged the British sent another carrier to the mediteranian, and certainly operated within range of Stukas within three months of operation Excess while preventing a seaborne invasion of Crete.

When not operating with a convoy thr RN could dash into Maltese waters overnight starting outside Stuka range.

They would indeed suffer damage and loss but that never stopped the RN when they thought it necessary.

The RN fleet commander was notably pugnacious.

 

[JamesK]

I trust your judgment on this. As long as the tropes can be connected in some way to the events of the TL, it's fine.



I don't recall that they ever actually did so, but I believe they planned to construct pipelines after the projected capture of the Caucasus oil fields.



For the Fw 187, from what I understand, both the P 38 and Me 110 (which every source I have come across evaluates as inferior to the 187) proved capable in the ground attack role, so that was what I was basing the assessment on. It's certainly correct that the ground attack versions of the Fw 190 will soon gain more prominence, although the currently projected future ground attack aircraft is the Hs 129 (with decent engines).

For the Ju 87 vs He 118, there was a discussion on this thread a few months back about the circumstances under which the former was chosen, and the conclusion was that the decision happened in the context of the increasing influence of Udet in the months after Wever's death, which was butterflied away in TTL.

Fully agree on the rest.

The German aircraft industry companies fiercely and effectively manipulated corrupt Nazi officials to gain access to military aircraft R&D money. The result was too many R&D projects dissipating scarce resources (money, researchers, metals, factories and time) on way too many aircraft R&D projects. The resources should have been expended on fewer R&D projects focused on core airframes that could be brought into production more quickly, had excellent potential future upgrade potential, and perform multiple roles effectively. I'd say the Fw 187 was a good example of the problem. I know there was politics involved in its eventual cancelation but that's par for the course for any aircraft (or other war machine R&D) in Nazi Germany. Udet rejected it as a high-speed fighter due to lack of maneuverability, and then for some reason (likely political pressure) let the project continue but redesigned as a bomber destroyer to replace the Bf 110. I'm not aware the Fw 187 was considered as a ground attack aircraft. Impaired rear visibility alone (not to mention small fuselage and light weight construction) would have made ground attack a bad idea: a ground attack aircraft that can't see energy fighters diving on it from the rear doesn't last long on the battlefield. A ground attack FW 190 variant in ground attack jumped by a fighter could use its speed and maneuverability to flee or fight effectively.

The Hs 129 is a superb aircraft. The sooner the Luftwaffe deploys it the better.

The He 118 cancelation decision seems to be the stuff of legend. Udet did cancel it the day after he crashed it in a test flight, despite the fact that he was well known for favoring Heinkel designs over competing designs. From what I can tell, the He 118 design had a number of fundamental flaws that might or might not have been able to be fixed eventually. If I had to guess I'd say that Udet decided to cull it from the R&D pork barrel, and the crash gave him the excuse he needed to override the objections of the R&D companies that in Nazi Germany were happy to continue throwing money at problematic aircraft (and other war machine) designs. Clearly the Ju 87 was a deadly precision dive bomber, that like all dive bombers needs friendly fighter cover to protect it from enemy fighters: just ask Hans-Ulrich Rudel.

Here's an Axis History Forum thread that discusses the He 118 vs Ju 187 controversy. Doesn't settle the issue but does illuminate it somewhat.
http://forum.axishistory.com/viewtopic.php?t=177885

The distances of the Mediterranean are indeed considerable, and are another factor which would act against a timely RN response.

 

[JamesK]

After illustrious was damaged the British sent another carrier to the mediteranian, and certainly operated within range of Stukas within three months of operation Excess while preventing a seaborne invasion of Crete.

When not operating with a convoy thr RN could dash into Maltese waters overnight starting outside Stuka range.

They would indeed suffer damage and loss but that never stopped the RN when they thought it necessary.

The RN fleet commander was notably pugnacious.

You might be right about the RN pugnaciously sortieing to save Malta. It took the sinking of the Repulse and Prince of Wales in the Pacific to finally convince the British that RN ships were too vulnerable when the enemy has air superiority. Entering Maltese waters would certainly turn out badly for RN units that sailed into range of the German and Italian aircraft based on Sicily. The southern coast of the main island of Malta is only 90 air miles from the Axis Sicilian air bases, a mere 35 minute flight for a Stuka. And the Stuka has an operational range of over 300 miles, so there's no way that a RN fleet could reach and attack Malta without undergoing repeated air attacks from Stukas and other bombers operating from Sicilian bases. These airbases would also be sortieing German and Italian fighters to provide air cover for the Axis bombers, far more fighters than the single available British carrier the "Eagle" could provide ... assuming the Eagle remained operational, or even afloat, after attacks by waves of Ju 87 and Ju 88 bombers.

And even if the RN managed to reach and shell Malta they'd be too late to stop Malta from falling.
The Operation Herkules plan described in the wiki linked below indicates that the 29,000 airborne troops (mix of parachute and glider troops) would start landing on the Malta main island during the afternoon of the first day, 70,000 seaborne troops would begin landing before midnight and complete by early the next morning. That's 99,000 troops already on Maltese territory before the RN reaches Maltese waters. And the Axis invasion would have complete air superiority over the Maltese islands and the surrounding ocean.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Herkules

Throw in an Italian naval fleet of four battleships, four heavy cruisers, eight light cruisers and 21 destroyers, ITTL with plenty of fuel and much better trained sailors, the Italian navy would shell the s*** out of British land defenses. BTW, am I remembering correctly the Germans would be supplying the Italians with radar technology as part of the Italian Libyan oil deal with Germany? If so, this would go a long way to correcting one major Italian naval equipment deficit: no radar on their ships. With radar the Italians would now be able to conduct night naval battles with British ships, such as the RN fleet that would sail to rescue Malta from the Axis invasion.

How long might the British forces hold out before the RN ships arrived to conduct naval shelling in support of British defense positions?

British forces on Maltese territory (mostly on the main island) was around 26,000 troops in mid-1941.

With all the Axis airborne, seaborne, aircraft and naval units coming their way you can see why the British would lose quickly.

It's worth noting that the RN operations during the German invasion of Crete (and subsequent evacuation of British troops) were desperate sorties that resulted in the sinking of numerous RN ships, many by Ju 87 Stukas. There were no carriers involved in the RN naval actions around Crete during the German invasion of Crete or the subsequent evacuation of British troops: the near loss of Illustrious near Malta during the previous Operation Excess had taught the British not to sail carriers in range of Axis land-based aircraft. The RN actions around Crete taught them an even harder lesson, summed up by the wiki excerpt below:
"It was a significant victory for the Luftwaffe, as it proved that the Royal Navy could not operate in waters where the German Air Force had air supremacy without suffering severe losses."
A fuller wiki description of the RN Crete naval actions is had at this link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_the_Mediterranean#Crete

 

[hipper]

You might be right about the RN pugnaciously sortieing to save Malta. It took the sinking of the Repulse and Prince of Wales in the Pacific to finally convince the British that RN ships were too vulnerable when the enemy has air superiority. Entering Maltese waters would certainly turn out badly for RN units that sailed into range of the German and Italian aircraft based on Sicily. The southern coast of the main island of Malta is only 90 air miles from the Axis Sicilian air bases, a mere 35 minute flight for a Stuka. And the Stuka has an operational range of over 300 miles, so there's no way that a RN fleet could reach and attack Malta without undergoing repeated air attacks from Stukas and other bombers operating from Sicilian bases. These airbases would also be sortieing German and Italian fighters to provide air cover for the Axis bombers, far more fighters than the single available British carrier the "Eagle" could provide ... assuming the Eagle remained operational, or even afloat, after attacks by waves of Ju 87 and Ju 88 bombers.

And even if the RN managed to reach and shell Malta they'd be too late to stop Malta from falling.
The Operation Herkules plan described in the wiki linked below indicates that the 29,000 airborne troops (mix of parachute and glider troops) would start landing on the Malta main island during the afternoon of the first day, 70,000 seaborne troops would begin landing before midnight and complete by early the next morning. That's 99,000 troops already on Maltese territory before the RN reaches Maltese waters. And the Axis invasion would have complete air superiority over the Maltese islands and the surrounding ocean.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Herkules

Throw in an Italian naval fleet of four battleships, four heavy cruisers, eight light cruisers and 21 destroyers, ITTL with plenty of fuel and much better trained sailors, the Italian navy would shell the s*** out of British land defenses. BTW, am I remembering correctly the Germans would be supplying the Italians with radar technology as part of the Italian Libyan oil deal with Germany? If so, this would go a long way to correcting one major Italian naval equipment deficit: no radar on their ships. With radar the Italians would now be able to conduct night naval battles with British ships, such as the RN fleet that would sail to rescue Malta from the Axis invasion.

How long might the British forces hold out before the RN ships arrived to conduct naval shelling in support of British defense positions?

British forces on Maltese territory (mostly on the main island) was around 26,000 troops in mid-1941.

With all the Axis airborne, seaborne, aircraft and naval units coming their way you can see why the British would lose quickly.

It's worth noting that the RN operations during the German invasion of Crete (and subsequent evacuation of British troops) were desperate sorties that resulted in the sinking of numerous RN ships, many by Ju 87 Stukas. There were no carriers involved in the RN naval actions around Crete during the German invasion of Crete or the subsequent evacuation of British troops: the near loss of Illustrious near Malta during the previous Operation Excess had taught the British not to sail carriers in range of Axis land-based aircraft. The RN actions around Crete taught them an even harder lesson, summed up by the wiki excerpt below:
"It was a significant victory for the Luftwaffe, as it proved that the Royal Navy could not operate in waters where the German Air Force had air supremacy without suffering severe losses."
A fuller wiki description of the RN Crete naval actions is had at this link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_the_Mediterranean#Crete

The Best way to understand a story compared to OTL is to note the ways in which each side differed from its historical counterparts

The range of a Stuka was not 300 miles with the heaviest bombs needed for attacking battleships.

It would take 10 hours at 20 knots for the RN to cover 300 miles, an approach at night is possible.

The Main Target for the RN would be the Italian fleet which would be forced to defend the mass of amphibious shipping.

Since the USN could not suppress German coast defence Guns off Cherbourg in 1944 I'm not sure why the Italians could here.

why has the RN have Fewer carriers than OTL?

There is not the Beach capacity on Malta to land 77000 men in one day, that's 50 per cent of DDay

It's a story the author can have it turn out any way he wants,
however pretending that one side does not have the will to fight is lazy storytelling.

The best stories maximise the difficulties faced rather than minimising them.


Regards

 

[ppaul16]

If the Axis have been bombing Malta for a while it is possible the UK could have come to the conclusion that it would fall sooner or later. They are also on the ropes in Egypt and Gibraltar and have to defend England, so it's possible they could decide throwing everything they have at Malta isn't the best use of their limited resources.

 

[hipper]

If the Axis have been bombing Malta for a while it is possible the UK could have come to the conclusion that it would fall sooner or later. They are also on the ropes in Egypt and Gibraltar and have to defend England, so it's possible they could decide throwing everything they have at Malta isn't the best use of their limited resources.

There are some who argue you are Correct in OTL however the Decision was made to support Malta in preference to supplying Russia. In this time line British Naval and air resources are greater than OTL.