Wagner’s Germany: An Axis Victory TL

[Tonrich]

Great Update!

I think taking Malta is a huge plus from OTL because it takes away the Allies eyes in an extremely sensitive area. Now they need to take Alexandria and Suez and close the British Navy out of the Eastern Med. I once read that if 25% of the supplies that had gotten sunk on the way to North Africa had actually reached port and been available to Rommel, he would have won at El-Alamein.

Another HUGE factor is that the Regia Marina has all the oil it needs for training, patrols and interdiction. This is something the British never really had to deal with. With the Luftwaffe in control of the skies they have to be reluctant to commit to an all out battle.

Another thing that could be forgotten here; the German army just completed a successful combined amphibious assault and I'm sure learned much. Does that start to make the British nervous and keep a little more in the home islands? (i.e. not available in other global locations)

Also if the British lose Egypt/Suez what does that do to/for the Far East contingent of the Axis?

 

[Israel]

I'm going to try to create a TV Tropes for this

 

[nbcman]

Given that Libyan oil is now a hugely important strategic resource for the Axis, I'm imagining that an immediate Axis seizure of Malta would be a high-priority, to protect the oil tanker routes from Marsa el Brega to Italian and French ports and to protect the Axis desert war supply convoys.

Operation Hercules" was a German/Italian plan to invade Malta in mid-July 1942, with Rommel commanding. The invasion would likely have succeeded.

Here's a link to a wiki describing Operations Herkules:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Herkules

A TTL version of the "Operation Herkules" Malta invasion could happen in the Fall of 1941 shortly after Manstein's victory against the British army and the recapture of Tobruk. The Italian Navy in combination with German/Italian land-based aircraft would prevent British forces from interfering with the invasion. Just like IOTL, the Germans would have virtually total air superiority over Malta and the surrounding seas. Unlike in OTL, the Italian Navy would have ample fuel supplies enabling them to conduct frequent naval combat and invasion training exercises. The Italian navy would be well prepared and provide effective naval support for the Malta invasion. Sizable numbers of German airborne parachute and glider troops would be used for the invasion along with large numbers of seaborne troops making amphibious landings. The German airborne troops would be at full strength because ITTL Crete never happened to decimate them and undermine their reputation as an undefeated elite strike force.

British reinforcements to Malta in OTL were meagre throughout 1940 and 1941. Land defenses were weak. British air and naval support for Malta's defenders would be minimal or nonexistent during an Axis invasion in Fall of 1941. The Malta defenses didn't begin to improve significantly in OTL until 1942, but even then the defenses would have been unable to defeat Operation Herkules planned IOTL for July 1942.

IMHO, Malta would fall within a few days ITTL of the launching in Fall of 1941 of a German/Italian Operation Herkules.

With the fall of Malta the central Mediterranean would become an Axis lake. The Libyan oil tanker and desert war military supply convoys would be free from air or naval attack. The only threat remaining would be British subs, which IOTL had negligible success sinking Axis shipping in 1940 and only slightly better in 1941 while themselves being sunk in large numbers by Axis mines as well as Axis naval and air forces.

ITTL Manstein's counter-offensive in September 1941 forced O'Connor's forces to retreat from Tobruk to the east. The "Tracks In The Desert" update doesn't mention any British troops being left to garrison Tobruk so I assume that all the British forces departed Tobruk during O'Connor's breakout to the southeast and left Tobruk undefended. The sudden hurried British retreat from Tobruk would give little or no time for retreating British forces to demolish much if any of Tobruk's port infrastructure. The port would likely be back in full operation with a few days of capture by German/Italian forces.

If Libya was more important than OTL as well as with closer German-Italian ties from 1938, why wouldn't the British respond ITTL by improving their Malta defenses prior to the start of WW2? Maybe the German-Italians can brush them aside but the British defenses shouldn't be as weak as OTL.

EDIT: OP did indicate stronger British defenses in his recent update as note (b).

 

[hipper]

If Libya was more important than OTL as well as with closer German-Italian ties from 1938, why wouldn't the British respond ITTL by improving their Malta defenses prior to the start of WW2? Maybe the German-Italians can brush them aside but the British defenses shouldn't be as weak as OTL.

EDIT: OP did indicate stronger British defenses in his recent update as note (b).

He might have metioned what the RN was doing while the Italian Battlefleet was concentrated round Malta

 

[cortz#9]

If Libya was more important than OTL as well as with closer German-Italian ties from 1938, why wouldn't the British respond ITTL by improving their Malta defenses prior to the start of WW2? Maybe the German-Italians can brush them aside but the British defenses shouldn't be as weak as OTL.

EDIT: OP did indicate stronger British defenses in his recent update as note (b).

Good point, the British would have made some changes or done things differently here. I'm sure Crimson will tell us what those changes were.

 

[JamesK]

Manstein's DAK desert forces are now facing a similar problem to that faced by Rommel's DAK in OTL. The DAK in the OTL and TTL both have long logistical tails that make it difficult to provide adequate supplies for a DAK offensive into Egypt. Granted, ITTL the seizure of Malta shortens the logistical tail a bit and reduces ship losses to British attacks too. Nevertheless the primary problem remains much the same as in OTL: Mansteins's forces at El Alamein are at the logistical tail end of a long vulnerable desert supply line that stretches back 341 road miles to Tobruk, 629 miles to Benghazi, and 1108 miles to Tripoli, while the British are at the logistical tail end of a short much less vulnerable desert supply line that stretches back a mere 70 miles to Alexandria.

Two major initiatives could help mitigate Manstein's logistical problems.

The first initiative would be a massive Luftwaffe and DAK ground forces effort to establish defensible major airbases around Tobruk. These airbases would handle fighter and bomber aircraft maintenance and repair, sorties and refueling. Airbase aircraft would maintain day and night CAPs to shoot down British aircraft attacking the airbases and supply truck convoys traveling from distant Libyan supply ports to Tobruk and Manstein's front line forces. Airbase fighter and bomber aircraft would also conduct heavy day and night attacks on British forward air bases (FOBs) to stop them sortieing and refueling aircraft. Luftwaffe and DAK forces would establish their own fighter and bomber FOBs behind Manstein's front line positions. These FOBs would handle refueling, rearming and emergency repairs for fighters and bombers searching for and attacking British supply depots and troop positions at and behind British front lines and east to Alexandria. The German FOBs would also stage and support sorties attacking British supply ships found in Egyptian ports and at sea in the eastern Med.

A large portion of the Luftwaffe forces could be Fliegerkorps X aircraft moved from Sicily bases after the successful invasion of Malta.

The second initiative involves maximizing supply ship use of the port of Tobruk. The Tobruk port would be protected under the new air superiority umbrella the Luftwaffe airbases established in the Tobruk region. The supplies being successfully landed at Tobruk would significantly improve the rate of resupply of Luftwaffe and DAK forces from Tobruk east to the El Alamein front lines.

With the Luftwaffe air campaign establishing regional air superiority, and the extra supplies moving through Tobruk's port, Manstein's supply problems should be substantially mitigated. It should enable Manstein to amass enough supplies to initiate and sustain a major offensive to break through the El Alamein British defenses and then keep the pressure on to push 70 miles to capture Alexandria.

The links below are to two wiki about the Western Desert Campaign. The sections on "Supply" are of particular interest regarding the major problems that Manstein's forces would face if Germany didn't establish regional air superiority, reduce supply truck convoy losses and maximize flow of supplies through Tobruk's port.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_Desert_Campaign
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_Desert_Campaign#

 

[The Congressman]

Manstein's DAK desert forces are now facing a similar problem to that faced by Rommel's DAK in OTL. The DAK in the OTL and TTL both have long logistical tails that make it difficult to provide adequate supplies for a DAK offensive into Egypt. Granted, ITTL the seizure of Malta shortens the logistical tail a bit and reduces ship losses to British attacks too. Nevertheless the primary problem remains much the same as in OTL: Mansteins's forces at El Alamein are at the logistical tail end of a long vulnerable desert supply line that stretches back 341 road miles to Tobruk, 629 miles to Benghazi, and 1108 miles to Tripoli, while the British are at the logistical tail end of a short much less vulnerable desert supply line that stretches back a mere 70 miles to Alexandria.

Two things could help mitigate Manstein's logistical problems.

The first would be a massive Luftwaffe and DAK ground forces effort to establish defensible forward operating bases (FOBs) around Tobruk. These FOBs would handle fighter and bomber aircraft basing, maintenance and repair, sorties and refueling. FOB fighter aircraft would maintain day and night CAPs to shoot down British aircraft attacking the FOBs and supply truck convoys traveling from distant Libyan supply ports to Tobruk and Manstein's front line forces. FOB fighter and bomber aircraft would also conduct heavy day and night attacks on British forward air bases (FOBs) to stop them sortieing and refueling aircraft. FOB fighter and bomber aircraft would search out and attack British supply depots near the front lines and in Alexandria, and attack British supply ships found in Egyptian ports and at sea in the eastern Med.

A large portion of the Luftwaffe forces could be Fliegerkorps X aircraft moved from Sicily bases after the successful invasion of Malta.

The second would be putting the port of Tobruk to maximum supply ship use, protected under the air superiority umbrella of the Luftwaffe. Tobruk supplies would significantly improve the rate of resupply of Luftwaffe and DAK forces.

With the Luftwaffe air campaign establishing regional air superiority, and the extra supplies moving through Tobruk's port, Manstein's supply problems should be substantially mitigated. It should enable Manstein to amass enough supplies and more quickly initiate and sustain a major lengthly offensive to break through the El Alamein British defenses and then keep the pressure on to push 70 miles to capture Alexandria.

The links below are to two wiki about the Western Desert Campaign. The sections on "Supply" are of particular interest regarding the major problems that Manstein's forces would face if Germany didn't establish regional air superiority, reduce supply truck convoy losses and maximize flow of supplies through Tobruk's port.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_Desert_Campaign
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_Desert_Campaign#

Did Egypt have the required armaments industry to sustain a modern military at the time? If not then the British will be forced to run the gauntlet through the Suez Canal from the Red Sea at the very least from Australia just to supply their forces. Strategically, the Axis only has to do so via Italy.

 

[AJE]

Manstein's DAK desert forces are now facing a similar problem to that faced by Rommel's DAK in OTL. The DAK in the OTL and TTL both have long logistical tails that make it difficult to provide adequate supplies for a DAK offensive into Egypt. Granted, ITTL the seizure of Malta shortens the logistical tail a bit and reduces ship losses to British attacks too. Nevertheless the primary problem remains much the same as in OTL: Mansteins's forces at El Alamein are at the logistical tail end of a long vulnerable desert supply line that stretches back 341 road miles to Tobruk, 629 miles to Benghazi, and 1108 miles to Tripoli, while the British are at the logistical tail end of a short much less vulnerable desert supply line that stretches back a mere 70 miles to Alexandria.

Two things could help mitigate Manstein's logistical problems.

The first would be a massive Luftwaffe and DAK ground forces effort to establish defensible forward operating bases (FOBs) around Tobruk. These FOBs would handle fighter and bomber aircraft basing, maintenance and repair, sorties and refueling. FOB fighter aircraft would maintain day and night CAPs to shoot down British aircraft attacking the FOBs and supply truck convoys traveling from distant Libyan supply ports to Tobruk and Manstein's front line forces. FOB fighter and bomber aircraft would also conduct heavy day and night attacks on British forward air bases (FOBs) to stop them sortieing and refueling aircraft. FOB fighter and bomber aircraft would search out and attack British supply depots near the front lines and in Alexandria, and attack British supply ships found in Egyptian ports and at sea in the eastern Med.

A large portion of the Luftwaffe forces could be Fliegerkorps X aircraft moved from Sicily bases after the successful invasion of Malta.

The second would be putting the port of Tobruk to maximum supply ship use, protected under the air superiority umbrella of the Luftwaffe. Tobruk supplies would significantly improve the rate of resupply of Luftwaffe and DAK forces.

With the Luftwaffe air campaign establishing regional air superiority, and the extra supplies moving through Tobruk's port, Manstein's supply problems should be substantially mitigated. It should enable Manstein to amass enough supplies and more quickly initiate and sustain a major lengthly offensive to break through the El Alamein British defenses and then keep the pressure on to push 70 miles to capture Alexandria.

The links below are to two wiki about the Western Desert Campaign. The sections on "Supply" are of particular interest regarding the major problems that Manstein's forces would face if Germany didn't establish regional air superiority, reduce supply truck convoy losses and maximize flow of supplies through Tobruk's port.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_Desert_Campaign
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_Desert_Campaign#

If the OP is planning to introduce the intermodal container (which can also solve the logistical problems) at some point, now is the time (well, maybe during Barbarossa, but still, they both have serious logistical issues).

If Libya was more important than OTL as well as with closer German-Italian ties from 1938, why wouldn't the British respond ITTL by improving their Malta defenses prior to the start of WW2? Maybe the German-Italians can brush them aside but the British defenses shouldn't be as weak as OTL.

EDIT: OP did indicate stronger British defenses in his recent update as note (b).

Coastal defenses OTL were very similar to seaborne versions of Eben-Emael and the Maginot line, and can be defeated the same way- by landing glider-borne troops on the roof and sealing off the few entrances, turning the fortifications into a giant tomb. Even if the British did have AA defenses, their ammunition was in poor shape, as the sinking of PoW and Repulse shows.

 

[Jaenera Targaryen]

Suggestions:

1) More on the U-boat campaign.
2) What's Axis France doing? Are they jamming in Central and West Africa against the British and the Belgians? Cooling their heels (apart from the distraction air campaign over the Channel Coast)...?
3) What's Japan doing, apart from the war in China?

 

[JamesK]

Did Egypt have the required armaments industry to sustain a modern military at the time? If not then the British will be forced to run the gauntlet through the Suez Canal from the Red Sea at the very least from Australia just to supply their forces. Strategically, the Axis only has to do so via Italy.

Egypt wasn't a major manufacturing center for war machines, munitions or fuel. They could supply some food and commissary goods and that was about it. Everything else had to be shipped in by freighter or tanker via the Red Sea and the Suez Canal.

The Suez Canal is over 300 miles from where the nearest Luftwaffe FOBs might be located to the west of the El Alamein front. Heinkel 111 medium bombers can reach the Canal and the upper section of the Red Sea. Unfortunately no German fighter (even with drop tanks) can reach the Suez canal from the FOBs without running out of fuel on the return. The Heinkels would have to attack without fighter escort for the latter part of their their bombing runs, making them easy prey for British fighters. British radar would see the Heinkels coming shortly after the bombers took off from the German FOBs, and vector British fighters to intercept shortly after the Heinkels left behind their short-legged German fighter escorts. The Suez Canal and the Red Sea, and the huge numbers of freighters and tankers using the Sea and Canal to bring supplies to the British forces in Egypt and the Med, will continue to be safely out of effective range of Luftwaffe air power until the Germans take Alexandria.

When Alexandria falls, and the huge port facilities there are repaired and operational, the German land and air forces will be able to increase manyfold in size. The Libyan logistical bottleneck will be eliminated that previously constrained German forces to only those quantities of soldiers and equipment that could be logistically sustained by slow truck convoys hauling meagre amounts of supplies over the vast desert road distances between the Libyan ports and the German El Alamein front lines.

 

[Cregan]

yes, but what happens if a massive Egyptian nationalist uprising breaks out in Alexandria if the Germans start handing Egyptian territory to their Italian allies?

 

[AJE]

The Suez Canal is over 300 miles from where the nearest Luftwaffe FOBs might be located to the west of the El Alamein front. Heinkel 111 medium bombers can reach the Canal and the upper section of the Red Sea. Unfortunately no German fighter (even with drop tanks) can reach the Suez canal from the FOBs without running out of fuel on the return. The Heinkels would have to attack without fighter escort for the latter part of their their bombing runs, making them easy prey for British fighters. British radar would see the Heinkels coming shortly after the bombers took off from the German FOBs, and vector British fighters to intercept shortly after the Heinkels left behind their short-legged German fighter escorts. The Suez Canal and the Red Sea, and the huge numbers of freighters and tankers using the Sea and Canal to bring supplies to the British forces in Egypt and the Med, will continue to be safely out of effective range of Luftwaffe air power until the Germans take Alexandria.

The Germans are using the Fw 187 as a long-range escort fighter ITTL.

 

[Tonrich]

Egypt wasn't a major manufacturing center for war machines, munitions or fuel. They could supply some food and commissary goods and that was about it. Everything else had to be shipped in by freighter or tanker via the Red Sea and the Suez Canal.

The Suez Canal is over 300 miles from where the nearest Luftwaffe FOBs might be located to the west of the El Alamein front. Heinkel 111 medium bombers can reach the Canal and the upper section of the Red Sea. Unfortunately no German fighter (even with drop tanks) can reach the Suez canal from the FOBs without running out of fuel on the return. The Heinkels would have to attack without fighter escort for the latter part of their their bombing runs, making them easy prey for British fighters. British radar would see the Heinkels coming shortly after the bombers took off from the German FOBs, and vector British fighters to intercept shortly after the Heinkels left behind their short-legged German fighter escorts. The Suez Canal and the Red Sea, and the huge numbers of freighters and tankers using the Sea and Canal to bring supplies to the British forces in Egypt and the Med, will continue to be safely out of effective range of Luftwaffe air power until the Germans take Alexandria.

When Alexandria falls, and the huge port facilities there are repaired and operational, the German land and air forces will be able to increase manyfold in size. The Libyan logistical bottleneck will be eliminated that previously constrained German forces to only those quantities of soldiers and equipment that could be logistically sustained by slow truck convoys hauling meagre amounts of supplies over the vast desert road distances between the Libyan ports and the German El Alamein front lines.

But wouldn't the desert offer the perfect "fly low under the radar" opportunity for the HE 111's to take a southern route to the Suez and create havoc? Particularly if the were flying early morning or dusk time frames. Just damaging a few locks in Suez would severely hamper the British supply line.

 

[Tonrich]

Manstein's DAK desert forces are now facing a similar problem to that faced by Rommel's DAK in OTL. The DAK in the OTL and TTL both have long logistical tails that make it difficult to provide adequate supplies for a DAK offensive into Egypt. Granted, ITTL the seizure of Malta shortens the logistical tail a bit and reduces ship losses to British attacks too. Nevertheless the primary problem remains much the same as in OTL: Mansteins's forces at El Alamein are at the logistical tail end of a long vulnerable desert supply line that stretches back 341 road miles to Tobruk, 629 miles to Benghazi, and 1108 miles to Tripoli, while the British are at the logistical tail end of a short much less vulnerable desert supply line that stretches back a mere 70 miles to Alexandria.

Did Germany have the technology to run pipeline? This route and terrain seems to be perfectly suited to running a pipeline under ground for gasoline and water from Tobrouk as far East as possible. Every mile they push a pipeline saves two miles in round trip of a supply truck.

At 341 miles, traveling 30mph it would take a truck 11 1/2 hours one way (23 hrs round trip). This takes more than 1 driver per trip. If you can push a pipeline even 100 miles you just took the trip of a gas truck down to 8 hrs. You can now have a truck do a round trip in a 16 hr day. This, although a long day, is achievable with 1 driver.

 

[Uli_Stoiber]

Just damaging a few locks in Suez would severely hamper the British supply line.

The Suez canal has no locks.

 

[JamesK]

The Germans are using the Fw 187 as a long-range escort fighter ITTL.

What aircraft are present on the desert front in the German/Italian and the British air forces ITTL in 1941 and on into 1942? Obviously the answer to this question will make a huge difference in the desert war.

There were some long-range heavy fighters operating in 1941 IOTL in the desert. The British had the Beaufighter IOTL, which like all long-range heavy fighters, was no match for front line fighters. The German ME109 and FW190 were much more maneuverable in a dogfight than a Beaufighter. IOTL the Germans had the Bf 110 long-range heavy fighter. The Bf 110 had a strange mission profile: the Germans designed it to escort long-range bombers but then use its 348 mph speed to run away from encountered fighters rather than dogfight. This run away tactic barely worked against the 340 mph Hurricane but failed against the 363 mph Spitfire. In a dogfight with a Hurricane or Spitfire the Bf 110 routinely lost due to the fact that like the Beaufighter it wasn't as maneuverable in a dogfight as the British fighters. Long-range heavy fighters just weren't capable of providing escort fighter cover for long-range bombers.

The Fw 187 was an interesting aircraft IOTL. Though originally designed as a single-seat fighter, it was modified to add a second seat which impaired its performance. Only a few were built in OTL before production was canceled in favor of other designs. Most reports put the top speed of the Bf 187 at 328 mph, though a single-seat version might have added 10 mph to that and reached the same speed as the Hurricane. But even a single-seat Fw 187 would have been easy meat for a Hurricane or Spitfire for the same reasons that the Beaufighter was easy meat for 109s and 190s: less maneuverable.

Here's an interesting link to a speculative article discussing what might have happened if the Fw 187 had taken a different path in its development.
http://forum.axishistory.com/viewtopic.php?t=124386

 

[JamesK]

But wouldn't the desert offer the perfect "fly low under the radar" opportunity for the HE 111's to take a southern route to the Suez and create havoc? Particularly if the were flying early morning or dusk time frames. Just damaging a few locks in Suez would severely hamper the British supply line.

Most of the German bomber flight path to attack the Suez Canal or Red Sea shipping would be over flat land in Egypt. British radar stations and ground observers would spot the German bombers shortly after they crossed into British held territory. The radar stations would vector British fighters to intercept the bombers. Bombers flying low-altitude or on the deck would be easy meat for the British fighters diving on them. German bomber losses would be huge.

 

[AJE]

What aircraft are present on the desert front in the German/Italian and the British air forces ITTL in 1941 and on into 1942? Obviously the answer to this question will make a huge difference in the desert war.

There were some long-range heavy fighters operating in 1941 IOTL in the desert. The British had the Beaufighter IOTL, which like all long-range heavy fighters, was no match for front line fighters. The German ME109 and FW190 were much more maneuverable in a dogfight than a Beaufighter. IOTL the Germans had the Bf 110 long-range heavy fighter. The Bf 110 had a strange mission profile: the Germans designed it to escort long-range bombers but then use its 348 mph speed to run away from encountered fighters rather than dogfight. This run away tactic barely worked against the 340 mph Hurricane but failed against the 363 mph Spitfire. In a dogfight with a Hurricane or Spitfire the Bf 110 routinely lost due to the fact that like the Beaufighter it wasn't as maneuverable in a dogfight as the British fighters. Long-range heavy fighters just weren't capable of providing escort fighter cover for long-range bombers.

The Fw 187 was an interesting aircraft IOTL. Though originally designed as a single-seat fighter, it was modified to add a second seat which impaired its performance. Only a few were built in OTL before production was canceled in favor of other designs. Most reports put the top speed of the Bf 187 at 328 mph, though a single-seat version might have added 10 mph to that and reached the same speed as the Hurricane. But even a single-seat Fw 187 would have been easy meat for a Hurricane or Spitfire for the same reasons that the Beaufighter was easy meat for 109s and 190s: less maneuverable.

Here's an interesting link to a speculative article discussing what might have happened if the Fw 187 had taken a different path in its development.
http://forum.axishistory.com/viewtopic.php?t=124386

The Fw 187 was supposedly designed to be (and allegedly was) just as agile as a single-seat aircraft.

 

[cortz#9]

The front line fighter ITTL is the fw-190 which has an operational range of 500 miles, not enough to reach Suez and back but with drop tanks could easily make the trip. So a question for Crimson, has the Luftwaffe ITTL under Wever developed drop tanks?

 

[Tonrich]

The Suez canal has no locks.

Really, I didn't know that. I guess that's one of those things I always assumed, but never checked out. Thank you.