Wagner’s Germany: An Axis Victory TL

[NoMommsen]

I concur. It only needs an engineer or an engineering student or maybe even a steel worker looking at schematics, tilting them and seeing that sloped armor gets more protection for the same weight.

The german engineers knew very well the advantage of sloped and angled armor.
Just have a look at the Sd.Kfz 251, the famous 'Halbkette'.

You can see what's all angled there.

They didn't incorparated it in their 'early' tanks due to

• resource, cutting all these different plates in very specific angles costs material and time. later version had a much more simplified aka less angled body.
• internal space considerations.
• production capabilities. One of the reasons the Tiger turret was 'nothing' more than a single, simple bent rectangular plate.

 

[Jotun]

In this scenario, there might be less restraints on the arms industry.

 

[The Congressman]

I can imagine something along the lines of the Panther to be created as the main battle tank of the Volkswher (especially considering Wagner isn't a gleeful child like Hitler who threw money and resources into insane projects) followed by something later in the war along the lines of the King Tiger.

 

[cortz#9]

The german engineers knew very well the advantage of sloped and angled armor.
Just have a look at the Sd.Kfz 251, the famous 'Halbkette'.
View attachment 283724
You can see what's all angled there.

They didn't incorparated it in their 'early' tanks due to

• resource, cutting all these different plates in very specific angles costs material and time. later version had a much more simplified aka less angled body.
• internal space considerations.
• production capabilities. One of the reasons the Tiger turret was 'nothing' more than a single, simple bent rectangular plate.

Yeah the Germans did know about sloped armor but didn't think it was necessary due to the reasons mentioned above and also because most of the tanks of the early war period weren't that powerful (3,7 & 45mm cal.), it wasn't until bigger guns like the Soviet 76mm was introduced that the need became apparent.

In this scenario, there might be less restraints on the arms industry.

If someone high up like Guderian makes a good argument for sloped armor due to the enemy having bigger guns, I could see Wagner ordering that the proposed Pz.Kfw.V have sloped armor. German Intel. still has to discover that the enemy is up-gunning their AFVs though.

 

[Random Walk]

The great updates keep coming! Interesting having Manstien as the Dessert Fox ITTL. It'll be interesting to see if Malta can hold out this time given still no direct invasion and blockading instead. Also in follow up from an earlier question I asked, are the Horten Brothers still around ITTL? It was Goring who initially contracted them I believe, but the 229 and 18 model stealth jets could still be a huge advantage for Wagner if they can be produced.

 

[TRH]

Speaking of Manstein, I can't shake the feeling that Libya's a waste of his talents compared to the Eastern Front. The latter theater's obviously more important by far.

 

[The Congressman]

Speaking of Manstein, I can't shake the feeling that Libya's a waste of his talents compared to the Eastern Front. The latter theater's obviously more important by far.

There is no armored war in the east so far, and in Africa he basically has the full command of the Axis forces.

 

[TRH]

There is no armored war in the east so far, and in Africa he basically has the full command of the Axis forces.

But how likely is it that that'll be wrapped up before a move against the USSR? He could wind up stuck there, like Rommel OTL, but this is a bigger loss.

 

[The Congressman]

But how likely is it that that'll be wrapped up before a move against the USSR? He could wind up stuck there, like Rommel OTL, but this is a bigger loss.

Eh, Germany has strong Generals either way, and it looks like the African front will be much more important here than in OTL

 

[JamesK]

I doubt learning about Soviet tanks would be that easy. Remember that during the Cold War the Soviets managed to keep the very existence of the T-64 and T-80 a secret for decades despite the best efforts of very competent Western intelligence agencies. Even some of their exported equipment was successfully kept secret until the fall of the Soviet Union (notably their anti-aircraft units like the SA-5 and Tunguska).

Also, to reply directly to the latest update, bypassing Gibraltar is possible, but not as easy as mentioned. Bypassing Malta means that cargo ships to North Africa have to take a much longer and more dangerous route (due to Allied submarines and airpower), as they did OTL, and if any convoy makes it to Malta, it will likely carry aircraft that could then be used to attack targets in Italy or North Africa, unless they are countered with more of the Axis' precious airpower. To truly remove Malta's ability to interfere with Axis operations, it will have to be truly isolated from all resupply, and its aircraft and coastal guns (which force shipping to take such a long route) will have to be neutralized or destroyed in some way. Some battleship raids by the Italian Navy could take care of the coastal guns, and it's possible to eliminate airpower by repeated airstrikes and a blockade to stop Allied reinforcement convoys from arriving. Still, as in OTL, the British will send increasingly heavily escorted convoys (in OTL the biggest was Operation Pedestal) to assist.

Due to their naval power, it's likely that they can't be stopped unless the island is used as bait to deliberately attract and ambush such heavily armed convoys. If they can mine the waters and turn the approach to Malta into a death trap like the Ottomans did to the Dardanelles Straits during the Gallipoli Campaign (see the attempts by the British to force the straits during the Gallipoli Campaign), then the British will likely suffer a humiliating defeat, just like they did during the similar Gallipoli Campaign.

You might be right about the pre-WWII Soviet Union's ability to keep their tank development and deployments secret from Heydrich's intelligence services.

On the other hand, the 1930s were not the post-WWII 1940s, 50s or 60s. In the 1930s the Soviet Union experienced massive instabilities. Festering border conflicts and huge territorial shifts in its international borders made it difficult in some border regions to suppress cross border communications, movement of people and routine smuggling. Many people were malnourished or starving. Mass relocation and persecution of ethnic populations were carried out, creating vast numbers of desperate vengeful displaced people. And of course the Great Purge of 1936-38 occurred, that reputable experts claim arrested 8% or more of the total population of the Soviet Union and executed upwards of 2 million of them, likely pissing off many of the surviving 92%.

Contrast this with the post-WWII Soviet Union. The post-WWII Soviet Union's borders were stable, fortified, and heavily surveilled. The economy was growing and no one was starving. The surveillance State infrastructure was highly evolved and effective. Internal ethnic populations were under secure control.

Heydrich's intelligence services would have a difficult time creating and sustaining successful intelligence networks in the OTL post-WWII Soviet Union. It should be relatively easy to do in the pre-WWII Soviet Union of TTL.

So I'm still betting that Heydrich's intelligence services would have acquired detailed information about the T-34 and KV-1 tanks (and other major Soviet military R&D and deployments) well before the tanks began deployment in 1941. If (like in OTL) these tanks began deployment ITTL in 1941 and surprised the German army on the battlefield in 1942 I'm imagining Heydrich would arrest and shoot himself for gross incompetence.

 

[Tonrich]

Another excellent chapter!

I've always wondered why Hitler didn't do everything possible to close the Mediterranean and protect Italy. Had Germany (in concert with Italy) taken Gibraltar and Suez (at any cost) and kicked the British out of the Med it would have accomplished 3 major goals:

• Protect the weak partner, Italy. This would have allowed Italy to reorganize her resources, since she didn't have to protect thousands of miles of coastline against possible invasion. She would have been able to concentrate her forces on the needed area rather then space them out all over the Med.
• Taking Suez and the middle east area puts Germany in a better strategic position vs. the Soviet Union. Being able to potentially attack through the Caucasus at the outset of hostilities would be huge.
• From a resource standpoint this is a huge boon to the Axis and a disaster for the Allies. If the Med becomes a private lake for the axis with the ability to move resources around from the area it becomes dramatically easier for Germany to beat the British blockade. Great Britain loses all the resources from that area which is a killer to their war effort, plus another hit on their prestige.

There are some other sideline type things that would probably occur if Germany achieved this. Greece would most likely join the Axis. They were somewhat riding the fence prior to Italy attacking them. Yugoslavia would probably not back out of their agreement to join the Axis. (think about it - who would back Yugo and Greece now that the UK doesn't have access to the Med anymore, they run out of options) It should considerably shorten the defensive points to Garrison. The Axis would have to have a force in Morocco (Gibraltar) and then the mouth of the Red Sea. Much easier defensive positions then in OTL.

Wagner has to get Mussolini on board with the strategic moves. He can't let Italy freewheel like in OTL.

 

[Tonrich]

Another excellent chapter!

I've always wondered why Hitler didn't do everything possible to close the Mediterranean and protect Italy. Had Germany (in concert with Italy) taken Gibraltar and Suez (at any cost) and kicked the British out of the Med it would have accomplished 3 major goals:

• Protect the weak partner, Italy. This would have allowed Italy to reorganize her resources, since she didn't have to protect thousands of miles of coastline against possible invasion. She would have been able to concentrate her forces on the needed area rather then space them out all over the Med.
• Taking Suez and the middle east area puts Germany in a better strategic position vs. the Soviet Union. Being able to potentially attack through the Caucasus at the outset of hostilities would be huge.
• From a resource standpoint this is a huge boon to the Axis and a disaster for the Allies. If the Med becomes a private lake for the axis with the ability to move resources around from the area it becomes dramatically easier for Germany to beat the British blockade. Great Britain loses all the resources from that area which is a killer to their war effort, plus another hit on their prestige.

There are some other sideline type things that would probably occur if Germany achieved this. Greece would most likely join the Axis. They were somewhat riding the fence prior to Italy attacking them. Yugoslavia would probably not back out of their agreement to join the Axis. (think about it - who would back Yugo and Greece now that the UK doesn't have access to the Med anymore, they run out of options) It should considerably shorten the defensive points to Garrison. The Axis would have to have a force in Morocco (Gibraltar) and then the mouth of the Red Sea. Much easier defensive positions then in OTL.

Wagner has to get Mussolini on board with the strategic moves. He can't let Italy freewheel like in OTL.

One other main thing - wasn't the invasion of the Soviet Union put back a couple weeks due to Germany's response to the Balkan issues?

If Germany didn't have to invade Greece and Yugo they would have been able to kick off against the SU 2 or 3 weeks earlier. That might have allowed them to get to Moscow in the first summer.

I know the timeline is outside this TL but it's interesting to kick around!

 

[The Congressman]

Another excellent chapter!

I've always wondered why Hitler didn't do everything possible to close the Mediterranean and protect Italy. Had Germany (in concert with Italy) taken Gibraltar and Suez (at any cost) and kicked the British out of the Med it would have accomplished 3 major goals:

• Protect the weak partner, Italy. This would have allowed Italy to reorganize her resources, since she didn't have to protect thousands of miles of coastline against possible invasion. She would have been able to concentrate her forces on the needed area rather then space them out all over the Med.
• Taking Suez and the middle east area puts Germany in a better strategic position vs. the Soviet Union. Being able to potentially attack through the Caucasus at the outset of hostilities would be huge.
• From a resource standpoint this is a huge boon to the Axis and a disaster for the Allies. If the Med becomes a private lake for the axis with the ability to move resources around from the area it becomes dramatically easier for Germany to beat the British blockade. Great Britain loses all the resources from that area which is a killer to their war effort, plus another hit on their prestige.

There are some other sideline type things that would probably occur if Germany achieved this. Greece would most likely join the Axis. They were somewhat riding the fence prior to Italy attacking them. Yugoslavia would probably not back out of their agreement to join the Axis. (think about it - who would back Yugo and Greece now that the UK doesn't have access to the Med anymore, they run out of options) It should considerably shorten the defensive points to Garrison. The Axis would have to have a force in Morocco (Gibraltar) and then the mouth of the Red Sea. Much easier defensive positions then in OTL.

Wagner has to get Mussolini on board with the strategic moves. He can't let Italy freewheel like in OTL.

With the British basically fighting one front - Egypt, although they could improve their standing by invading France's Central/Western Africa holdings in concert with Free French - I think the Axis could only secure the Western Mediterranean. However, getting control of Malta, Gibraltar, and the other areas in the Western Med would be a coup in and of itself.

 

[AJE]

With the British basically fighting one front - Egypt, although they could improve their standing by invading France's Central/Western Africa holdings in concert with Free French - I think the Axis could only secure the Western Mediterranean. However, getting control of Malta, Gibraltar, and the other areas in the Western Med would be a coup in and of itself.

That's true, but the Axis resources freed up by controlling the Mediterranean would be much greater than the freed up British resources, so the Axis would still be more likely to take the Suez Canal and North Africa than OTL.

 

[Cregan]

If the Axis advance that far into Egypt, and then take the Suez Canal and advance even further into the Middle East, there will be widespread anti-British/pro-Axis Arab nationalist uprisings. The question is, how does Wagner reconcile the competing goals of the Arab nationalists with his colonialist Italian, Spanish, and French allies?

 

[TRH]

If the Axis advance that far into Egypt, and then take the Suez Canal and advance even further into the Middle East, there will be widespread anti-British/pro-Axis Arab nationalist uprisings. The question is, how does Wagner reconcile the competing goals of the Arab nationalists with his colonialist Italian, Spanish, and French allies?

Well, these are still Nazis, so you can expect them to favor their European friends first. Still, some degree of balancing is probably necessary, or at least making concessions to the Arabs until such time as they've outlived their usefulness.

 

[Cregan]

Well, these are still Nazis, so you can expect them to favor their European friends first. Still, some degree of balancing is probably necessary, or at least making concessions to the Arabs until such time as they've outlived their usefulness.

Huge ramifications for the Axis to become bogged down in a quagmire fighting Arab insurgencies in North Africa and the Middle East, when they should be concentrating on the Soviets.

 

[CrimsonKing]

Wagner is showing a lot of common sense here. So Manstein is TTL's Desert Fox, interesting.

Indeed, more simple common sense on the part of the German leadership than OTL is probably the single most important part of this TL.

Ah, so we have Manstein vs O'Connor in Africa. Nice! The British would be best served to divert all the manpower that they can to Egypt (British, Canadian, ANZAC, Sepoy, South African, etc.) Reaching a deal with the Japanese to end assistance to the Nationalist Chinese would shore up their Pacific flank to commit everything to Africa. A victory there could force the Germans to the negotiating table and reach a favorable peace with British prestige intact - the British public would just blame France for the defeat in 1941.
Is the RAF launching terror raids against Germany as in OTL?

I'm not sure they're free to dictate China policy anymore - the United States is more committed to Chinese independence than they are, and may make continued support for Chiang a prerequisite for further assistance. Of course, any kind of squabbling between the two countries over that is only to Wagner's advantage.

While there is much to be said from the British perspective for reducing tensions with Japan through cutting off aid to the KMT, it's the point about the US position which decides the issue. American aid is absolutely critical to Britain's ability to continue fighting, and thus the American view that assistance to the KMT should continue is the prevailing one.

The RAF is launching the occasional raid, but they are largely ineffectual.

It's a great update. I was very surprised that the German Desert Fox is Manstein and not Rommel or Hoth.

Moreover, what is the situation on the future Eastern Front? Does the USSR has already made preparations to invade Finland and the Baltic states? Have the USSR got the annexation of Bessarabia simply by diplomatic pressure, as it succeeded in OTL? After all, in OTL Stalin was preparing for a war against the Germans around 1942.

The answers to the latter two questions are yes and yes. I can't go into much detail here at the moment because of spoilers, but German-Soviet relations are highly important and will be the subject of one of the next few chapters.

Don't worry about Rommel, he has a prominent role to play in this timeline.

A Panther-like tank will be coming along at some point. As for when, I have thought seriously about the possibility of having the Abwehr find out about the T-34 through espionage. However, I eventually came to the conclusion that, while possible, it would represent an instance of very good luck for the Germans. While German intelligence is far better in TTL than historically, it's still inferior to the KGB. As a result, as of now the successor to the Panzer IV is planned to be one of the emerging VK series as cortz#9 indicates, which will remain the case until the T-34 is encountered.

For standardized chassis, note that there has essentially already been a standardization on the chassis of the Panzer IV, with the Stug IV as the main assault gun, although there are still a few factories which had already tooled for the Panzer III before its cancellation which are still producing the Stug III.

For interleaved road wheels, I hope it's plausible enough that in TTL more thorough and extensive prototype testing will allow the reliability problems associated with them to be detected and the discovery made that on balance non-interleaved wheels are superior.

For heavy breakthrough vehicles in the mode of the Tigers, the Germans will start to produce one in the future as the available manufacturing and the scope to consider vehicles besides those which use the main chassis grow, it's just that given the greater emphasis they place here than in OTL on quantity and reliability, it will be produced as an assault gun rather than a turreted vehicle.

I discovered this discussion just last week. Took a while to get caught up and current. A really excellent discussion, quite rigorous and realistic.

In an early update it's mentioned that Reinhard Heydrich becomes head of a unified German intelligence service. Considering how inept and corrupt the OTL intelligence services were, it's not hard to imagine that a Heydrich service ITTL would be efficient and professional. It would work hard to develop domestic and international intelligence expertise, infrastructure and networks. The results might not be quite as good as the generally superb Soviet intelligence services but nevertheless might be closer to them in quality than to the frequently Keystone Cops antics ( plus Canaris sabotaging) of the OTL German intelligence services.

There were certainly plenty of international intelligence opportunities during the 1930's that Heydrich's well run German services might take advantage of.

During 1936-39 the Soviet government conducted a series of purges of the Red Army and Navy. Thousands of officers were thrown out of the military, many imprisoned or executed. According to this Great Purge wiki, "The purge of the Red Army and Military Maritime Fleet removed three of five marshals (then equivalent to five-star generals), 13 of 15 army commanders (then equivalent to three- and four-star generals), eight of nine admirals (the purge fell heavily on the Navy, who were suspected of exploiting their opportunities for foreign contacts),[30] 50 of 57 army corps commanders, 154 out of 186 division commanders, 16 of 16 army commissars, and 25 of 28 army corps commissars."

Heydrich's intelligence service could offer political asylum (plus comfortable homes and good money) to at-risk Soviet officers and their immediate families. The 1930's Soviet Union had thousands of miles of coast line and international borders porous to routine smuggling. German agents could smuggle out thousands of high-value Soviet officers eager to escape the purges. These officers (and some adult family members) would be a gold mine of Soviet economic, government and military intel. Many of them would possess detailed knowledge of Soviet military technology, both deployed and under development. Some would bring with them military R&D project details and blueprints (for example of the T-34 and KV-1 tanks) that substantially sweetened their asylum situations (nicer homes, more money, better jobs for themselves and adult family members, etc.). And when war with the Soviet Union came the Germans could have recruited many of these officers into a well-organized and well-trained emigre officer corps that absorbed hundreds of thousands of captured Soviet soldiers into special army divisions ostensibly formed to liberate their Russian, Ukrainian and other homelands (Vlasov is OTL example). And many of these officers (and adult family members) could also be prepared to take leading positions in the German protectorate governments that would be formed in "liberated" Ukraine and other ethnic territories. BTW, I'm going to assume that ITTL the advancing German army won't be closely followed by the OTL Einsatzgruppe murderous thugs.

Heydrich's service quite likely would have been very interested in researching the whereabouts of people who'd fled Germany to escape Nazi persecution. A large percentage of these escapees would have close relatives still living in Germany. Emigres might be forced to work with German intelligence under threat of reprisals against their relatives still in Germany if they refused to cooperate. This could produce a steady stream of commercial, political and military intelligence of enormous value. Imagine, for example, that among the people that Heydrich's people reach and force to work with them is Klaus Fuchs in England in 1939. Klaus in the OTL began working on atomic bomb research in England in 1941 and soon after transferred to the USA as a key scientist on the Manhattan Project. In the OTL the Soviets persuaded him to work for them starting in 1941. The nuclear weapon secrets he subsequently passed to the Soviets likely speeded up their development of both the atomic and hydrogen bombs. ITTL he'd be passing nuclear weapon secrets to Wagner's Germany.

Comments anyone?

Lots of potential here, if the Germans can get some Soviet defectors and persuade them to get others still in the USSR to pass along State secrets, the Germans could not only learn about Soviet weapons projects and the Manhattan project but also about Soviet and Allied agents in Germany as well.
This of course would be very, very bad for the Allies.

Oh, one more thing.

The Soviet T-34 medium tank and KV-1 heavy tank were being deployed to front line Soviet army units in steadily increasing numbers beginning in mid-1941 OTL.

Assuming the same deployment occurred ITTL, there'd be large numbers of the snorting diesel monsters by Spring of 1941 prior to any likely German invasion of the Soviet Union in April or May 1942.

Rumors of the existence of the two tank types, including credible eyewitness verbal accounts and even photos, would reasonably have begun accumulating in Heydrich's intelligence service's hands before the end of 1941. By late Spring 1942, when the ground had dried enough from Spring rains to allow an invasion of the Soviet Union to be launched, the Reich military, government and armaments industry should have been well aware of the existence of these two Soviet tank types. This is of course assuming that Heydrich's espionage services hadn't already secured details of the tanks while they still under development a year or two before their mid-1941 deployments began.

A German Panther-like medium tank able to handle the T-34, and a STUG tank destroyer upgunned and armored to handle the KV-1, should have been either close to deployment or already deploying replacing many if not most of the Panzer IV's and undergunned STUG's prior to a possible German invasion in mid-1942.

Just saying.

I doubt learning about Soviet tanks would be that easy. Remember that during the Cold War the Soviets managed to keep the very existence of the T-64 and T-80 a secret for decades despite the best efforts of very competent Western intelligence agencies. Even some of their exported equipment was successfully kept secret until the fall of the Soviet Union (notably their anti-aircraft units like the SA-5 and Tunguska).

Also, to reply directly to the latest update, bypassing Gibraltar is possible, but not as easy as mentioned. Bypassing Malta means that cargo ships to North Africa have to take a much longer and more dangerous route (due to Allied submarines and airpower), as they did OTL, and if any convoy makes it to Malta, it will likely carry aircraft that could then be used to attack targets in Italy or North Africa, unless they are countered with more of the Axis' precious airpower. To truly remove Malta's ability to interfere with Axis operations, it will have to be truly isolated from all resupply, and its aircraft and coastal guns (which force shipping to take such a long route) will have to be neutralized or destroyed in some way. Some battleship raids by the Italian Navy could take care of the coastal guns, and it's possible to eliminate airpower by repeated airstrikes and a blockade to stop Allied reinforcement convoys from arriving. Still, as in OTL, the British will send increasingly heavily escorted convoys (in OTL the biggest was Operation Pedestal) to assist.

Due to their naval power, it's likely that they can't be stopped unless the island is used as bait to deliberately attract and ambush such heavily armed convoys. If they can mine the waters and turn the approach to Malta into a death trap like the Ottomans did to the Dardanelles Straits during the Gallipoli Campaign (see the attempts by the British to force the straits during the Gallipoli Campaign), then the British will likely suffer a humiliating defeat, just like they did during the similar Gallipoli Campaign.

It should be Falkentag, not Falketag, by the way.

While finding out about the T-34 would be a huge boon to the Axis, I don't quite get why it's treated as the only way for them to develop sloped armor. The russians presumably came up with it on their own, so with the changed circumstances the germans could as well. Maybe they interviewed a lot of tankers to get additional ideas for upgrades and some of them mentioned that enemy shells were less likely to penetrate when the tank stood at an angle to them. Then the engineers just run with it. That the effective thickness of something is higher if you don't shoot at it at a 90° angle isn't exactly rocket science.

I concur. It only needs an engineer or an engineering student or maybe even a steel worker looking at schematics, tilting them and seeing that sloped armor gets more protection for the same weight.

The german engineers knew very well the advantage of sloped and angled armor.
Just have a look at the Sd.Kfz 251, the famous 'Halbkette'.
View attachment 283724
You can see what's all angled there.

They didn't incorparated it in their 'early' tanks due to

• resource, cutting all these different plates in very specific angles costs material and time. later version had a much more simplified aka less angled body.
• internal space considerations.
• production capabilities. One of the reasons the Tiger turret was 'nothing' more than a single, simple bent rectangular plate.

In this scenario, there might be less restraints on the arms industry.

I can imagine something along the lines of the Panther to be created as the main battle tank of the Volkswher (especially considering Wagner isn't a gleeful child like Hitler who threw money and resources into insane projects) followed by something later in the war along the lines of the King Tiger.

Yeah the Germans did know about sloped armor but didn't think it was necessary due to the reasons mentioned above and also because most of the tanks of the early war period weren't that powerful (3,7 & 45mm cal.), it wasn't until bigger guns like the Soviet 76mm was introduced that the need became apparent.

If someone high up like Guderian makes a good argument for sloped armor due to the enemy having bigger guns, I could see Wagner ordering that the proposed Pz.Kfw.V have sloped armor. German Intel. still has to discover that the enemy is up-gunning their AFVs though.

You might be right about the pre-WWII Soviet Union's ability to keep their tank development and deployments secret from Heydrich's intelligence services.

On the other hand, the 1930s were not the post-WWII 1940s, 50s or 60s. In the 1930s the Soviet Union experienced massive instabilities. Festering border conflicts and huge territorial shifts in its international borders made it difficult in some border regions to suppress cross border communications, movement of people and routine smuggling. Many people were malnourished or starving. Mass relocation and persecution of ethnic populations were carried out, creating vast numbers of desperate vengeful displaced people. And of course the Great Purge of 1936-38 occurred, that reputable experts claim arrested 8% or more of the total population of the Soviet Union and executed upwards of 2 million of them, likely pissing off many of the surviving 92%.

Contrast this with the post-WWII Soviet Union. The post-WWII Soviet Union's borders were stable, fortified, and heavily surveilled. The economy was growing and no one was starving. The surveillance State infrastructure was highly evolved and effective. Internal ethnic populations were under secure control.

Heydrich's intelligence services would have a difficult time creating and sustaining successful intelligence networks in the OTL post-WWII Soviet Union. It should be relatively easy to do in the pre-WWII Soviet Union of TTL.

So I'm still betting that Heydrich's intelligence services would have acquired detailed information about the T-34 and KV-1 tanks (and other major Soviet military R&D and deployments) well before the tanks began deployment in 1941. If (like in OTL) these tanks began deployment ITTL in 1941 and surprised the German army on the battlefield in 1942 I'm imagining Heydrich would arrest and shoot himself for gross incompetence.

Welcome JamesK! You make a very cogent and persuasive case for the ability of Heydrich's intelligence to detect the T-34. Let me suggest a compromise between the positions which have been offered here: Throughout 1940 and early 41, reliable reports of formidable new Soviet vehicles cause the Germans to immediately begin upgunning the Panzer IV with the l/48 and designing a Jagdpanzer IV with the emerging long l/70. Examination of knocked-out T-34s from the upcoming Soviet-Finnish war then results in the VK3001 finally being put aside in favor of a Panther-like vehicle with sloped armor.

Regarding a Tiger II-like tank, having looked over the issue some more, perhaps one will be created at some point.

Regarding Malta, I agree that bypassing it does cause some problems for the Axis. The thing is, remember that the British have had an extra year to strengthen its defenses. As a result, the OKV sees a direct assault as simply being too great a risk. Going around it while mitigating its ability to interdict shipping through air and sea power becomes the default option.

The lack of an n in Falkentag has been fixed.

Heydrich could be instrumental in forming an actually effective Free Russian Army, Free Ukrainian Corps, Baltic Liberation Corps, etc with these purged Soviet officers. Great idea.

Now that I think about it, Heydrich does have a lot in common with Lavrentiy Beria (Stalin's deputy and described by Stalin himself as "our Himmler", Beria is quoted as saying "show me the man and I'll find you the crime"), and Erich Mielke (head of the East German Stasi), so his Abwehr may well resemble the KGB in function and effectiveness.

As for people arrested in Stalin's purges that could be of use (there are countless good people that were innocent and still sent to the gulags), here are some of the most outstanding Soviet individuals sent to the gulags and/or killed during the purges:

Mikhail Tukhachevsky: Soviet military theorist and general, noted for helping develop the Deep Battle doctrine and the theories behind it, which was standard Soviet doctrine during the later half of WWII, and was followed by most successful Soviet military leaders and strategists during the war (notably Zhukov and Rokossovsky). Deep Battle has often been considered the Soviet counterpart to Blitzkrieg, and is regarded as just as effective when implemented properly. It should be noted, however, that his last words were that he remained dedicated to his motherland and to Comrade Stalin, right before Stalin had him executed, so it's difficult to see how he could be recruited by the Abwehr, even if he was sentenced to death by his own country.

Konstantin Rokossovsky: Soviet general, noted for having a major role in planning the most successful Soviet operations of WWII, most notably those at Stalingrad, Kursk, and Bagration (Spring 1944 Offensive)

Andrei Tupolev: Aircraft designer, noted for designing the Tu-2 bomber, the 2nd most important multi-engine Soviet aircraft of WWII. His design bureau was later responsible for designing most major Soviet bombers during the Cold War, as well as all heavy bombers currently in service with the Russian Air Force.

Vladimir Petlyakov: Aircraft designer, noted for leading the design team of the Pe-2 light bomber, the most important multi-engine Soviet aircraft of WWII. The Pe-2 is often compared to the Junkers Ju 88 and the De Havilland Mosquito due to its ubiquity and versatility. After his release, he worked to refine the aircraft until his death in an airplane crash in January 1942, cutting short a brilliant career.

Vladimir Myasischev: Aircraft designer, noted for having a hand in designing the Pe-2 under Vladimir Petlyakov, and later designing many other Soviet bombers during the Cold War.

Ivan Kleymyonov, Georgy Langemak, Sergei Korolev, and Valentin Glushko: Rocket pioneers working at the Jet Propulsion Research Institute, where they helped design the Katyusha rockets. Langemak and Kleymenov were executed during the Purges, but Korolev and Glushko went on to lead the Soviet space and rocket engine programs, respectively. Korolev designed the rockets that launched Sputnik, Vostok, and Soyuz, and Glushko designed the engines that powered them, as well as a series of engines that include the RD-170, a variant of which powers the current Atlas V rocket (which has caused controversy due to the embargoes on Russia). Korolev in particular has often been considered the Soviet counterpart to Werner Von Braun himself.

It should be noted that all of these designers had already distinguished themselves before their arrests, so it would not be hard for the Abwehr to identify them as priorities to be smuggled out of the USSR.

It's also a stretch considering their Master Race theories, but if Wagner was really clever he could do something like a Second Edict of Potsdam, encouraging refugees from the USSR to come to Germany, although that line of thought would be very unlikely.

I can certainly see the similarity between Heydrich and Beria. Both are highly competent, energetic, and ruthless, and both (in this timeline) fulfill quite similar roles. I'm not an expert on the Soviet high command, but my sense from what I've read is that Beria was more widely disliked than I envision Heydrich being in TTL, but otherwise the comparison is striking.

The great updates keep coming! Interesting having Manstien as the Dessert Fox ITTL. It'll be interesting to see if Malta can hold out this time given still no direct invasion and blockading instead. Also in follow up from an earlier question I asked, are the Horten Brothers still around ITTL? It was Goring who initially contracted them I believe, but the 229 and 18 model stealth jets could still be a huge advantage for Wagner if they can be produced.

The Horten Brothers are indeed still around. The role they play in the German jet program will be detailed when it becomes prominent.

Speaking of Manstein, I can't shake the feeling that Libya's a waste of his talents compared to the Eastern Front. The latter theater's obviously more important by far.

There is no armored war in the east so far, and in Africa he basically has the full command of the Axis forces.

But how likely is it that that'll be wrapped up before a move against the USSR? He could wind up stuck there, like Rommel OTL, but this is a bigger loss.

Eh, Germany has strong Generals either way, and it looks like the African front will be much more important here than in OTL

Rest assured, between the better intelligence and better judgment Wagner has no intention of initiating hostilities against the Soviet Union while there are significant forces occupied elsewhere.

Another excellent chapter!

I've always wondered why Hitler didn't do everything possible to close the Mediterranean and protect Italy. Had Germany (in concert with Italy) taken Gibraltar and Suez (at any cost) and kicked the British out of the Med it would have accomplished 3 major goals:

• Protect the weak partner, Italy. This would have allowed Italy to reorganize her resources, since she didn't have to protect thousands of miles of coastline against possible invasion. She would have been able to concentrate her forces on the needed area rather then space them out all over the Med.
• Taking Suez and the middle east area puts Germany in a better strategic position vs. the Soviet Union. Being able to potentially attack through the Caucasus at the outset of hostilities would be huge.
• From a resource standpoint this is a huge boon to the Axis and a disaster for the Allies. If the Med becomes a private lake for the axis with the ability to move resources around from the area it becomes dramatically easier for Germany to beat the British blockade. Great Britain loses all the resources from that area which is a killer to their war effort, plus another hit on their prestige.

There are some other sideline type things that would probably occur if Germany achieved this. Greece would most likely join the Axis. They were somewhat riding the fence prior to Italy attacking them. Yugoslavia would probably not back out of their agreement to join the Axis. (think about it - who would back Yugo and Greece now that the UK doesn't have access to the Med anymore, they run out of options) It should considerably shorten the defensive points to Garrison. The Axis would have to have a force in Morocco (Gibraltar) and then the mouth of the Red Sea. Much easier defensive positions then in OTL.

Wagner has to get Mussolini on board with the strategic moves. He can't let Italy freewheel like in OTL.

This is a great summation of the rationale for the Mediterranean strategy, and it is exactly what Wagner and Blomberg are thinking.

One other main thing - wasn't the invasion of the Soviet Union put back a couple weeks due to Germany's response to the Balkan issues?

If Germany didn't have to invade Greece and Yugo they would have been able to kick off against the SU 2 or 3 weeks earlier. That might have allowed them to get to Moscow in the first summer.

I know the timeline is outside this TL but it's interesting to kick around!

The part played in the delay of Operation Barbarossa by the Balkan operations is an intriguing question. My understanding is that there are some who attribute those subsidiary campaigns as the main cause of the postponement, whereas others attribute it to the condition of the roads following the spring rains.

With the British basically fighting one front - Egypt, although they could improve their standing by invading France's Central/Western Africa holdings in concert with Free French - I think the Axis could only secure the Western Mediterranean. However, getting control of Malta, Gibraltar, and the other areas in the Western Med would be a coup in and of itself.

That's true, but the Axis resources freed up by controlling the Mediterranean would be much greater than the freed up British resources, so the Axis would still be more likely to take the Suez Canal and North Africa than OTL.

If the Axis advance that far into Egypt, and then take the Suez Canal and advance even further into the Middle East, there will be widespread anti-British/pro-Axis Arab nationalist uprisings. The question is, how does Wagner reconcile the competing goals of the Arab nationalists with his colonialist Italian, Spanish, and French allies?

Well, these are still Nazis, so you can expect them to favor their European friends first. Still, some degree of balancing is probably necessary, or at least making concessions to the Arabs until such time as they've outlived their usefulness.

Huge ramifications for the Axis to become bogged down in a quagmire fighting Arab insurgencies in North Africa and the Middle East, when they should be concentrating on the Soviets.

How the Germans balance the Arab nationalists against the demands of their Axis allies for colonies is an issue I have thought of, but to be honest I haven't decided yet which one they will be prioritizing.

 

[AJE]

Welcome JamesK! You make a very cogent and persuasive case for the ability of Heydrich's intelligence to detect the T-34. Let me suggest a compromise between the positions which have been offered here: Throughout 1940 and early 41, reliable reports of formidable new Soviet vehicles cause the Germans to immediately begin upgunning the Panzer IV with the l/48 and designing a Jagdpanzer IV with the emerging long l/70. Examination of knocked-out T-34s from the upcoming Soviet-Finnish war then results in the VK3001 finally being put aside in favor of a Panther-like vehicle with sloped armor.

Regarding a Tiger II-like tank, having looked over the issue some more, perhaps one will be created at some point.

If you want a quicker and cheaper response for the T-34 (at least at first), there were several OTL proposals for Panzer IV variants with sloped armor, including the Ausf. K proposal or the similar Panzer IV projekt W 1466 proposal (both from 1944 OTL, T-34/KV-1 intelligence might accelerate this ITL). These were rejected because of the slowdown in production due to the radical changes to the tank. Alongside this, a "vereinfachtenturm" (simplified turret) was also designed which had heavier armor and a much simplified design that used less separate plates (and actually had more room inside), but it also deleted the commander's cupola for the same reasons of ease of production.

Pictures of the Projekt W 1466 hull with vereinfachtenturm (note the much simplified armor layout):

Vereinfachtenturm image (Source):

It should be noted that switching to a variant as radical as this would still have a large effect on production rates, just not nowhere near as much as switching to an entirely new vehicle like the Panther would. It wouldn't completely remove the need for new "clean slate" tanks at some point (the allies would still introduce tanks like the Pershing, Centurion, or T-54), but it would allow the introduction of new tanks like the Panther or Tiger II to be delayed to 1944 or 1945, giving these designs much-needed time to mature and solve teething problems. Secondly, the uparmoring from 50 to 80 mm of armor was made at Hitler's insistence OTL, and seriously exacerbated the overweight problems of the tank. It was retained in the sloped variants because returning to 50 mm of sloped armor seemed illogical, but if an 80 mm-armored Panzer IV is never produced in the first place, then sticking with 50 mm of sloped armor on a Panzer IV would keep the tank from becoming too overweight while still giving it better armor than the T-34. Also, if Germany isn't desperate for production efficiency even at the expense of combat effectiveness, then any "vereinfachtenturm" would still likely have to include a commander's cupola, preferably the new type employed by the Tiger II and Panther, and proposed for the Panzer IV Ausf K. This means that a hypothetical "definitive" Panzer IV produced by a Germany that isn't desperate is likely to look more like this than the images above:

 

[Israel]

What is the state of the Zionist cause ITTL?