alternatehistory.com

Malcolm Gladwell wrote an essay last year examining the beliefs of the Branch Davidians, and how the federal authorities misunderstood the situation. Basically, they expected the group to be doomsday, suicidal cultists the same way Jonestown was, and played into their hands and made them martyrs. Dr. James Tabor, a Biblical scholar, heard about the situation on CNN and studied what the Davidians believed and went on the air with another scholar, and tried to offer an alternative Biblical interpretation to get Koresh to give himself up to the authorities willingly.

Tabor and Arnold made a tape—a long, technical discussion of an alternative reading of Revelation—aired it on the radio, and sent it to Koresh. Koresh listened and was persuaded. He had been called a liar, a child molester, a con man, and a phony messiah. He had been invited to treat his children like bargaining chips and his followers like hostages. But now someone was taking his beliefs seriously. “I am presently being permitted to document in structured form the decoded messages of the seven seals,” he wrote back. “Upon the completion of this task, I will be freed of my waiting period. . . . As soon as I can see that people like Jim Tabor and Phil Arnold have a copy, I will come out and then you can do your thing with this beast.”

Inside Mount Carmel, Doyle writes, there was rejoicing. Soon they would all come out together, and the ordeal would be over. The F.B.I., however, remained skeptical. “Then what’s next?” one of the agents in charge allegedly said. “He’s going to write his memoirs?”

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That conversation took place on Friday, April 16th. [Branch Davidian suvivor Clive] Doyle says that he thinks Koresh would have finished the manuscript within two weeks. The F.B.I. waited three days. By the morning of April 19th, the Feds had had enough. The F.B.I.’s tanks rumbled up to the Mount Carmel buildings, and punched holes in the walls with their mechanical arms. [...]

So let's say the FBI take the scholars seriously, and Koresh does as well, and does give himself up for custody at the end of two weeks. The crisis is defused, the children are taken into foster care, and the adults are arrested or deprogrammed or what have you. One of the seminal examples of the modern federal government attacking Americans would be gone.

So does this mean the Oklahoma City Bombing doesn't happen? The '90s becomes less of a period for right-wing domestic extremism? Maybe libertarian movements have one less event to point at when decrying the dangers of government?
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