Waco siege: the FBI listens to Arnold and Tabor

Malcolm Gladwell wrote an essay last year examining the beliefs of the Branch Davidians, and how the federal authorities misunderstood the situation. Basically, they expected the group to be doomsday, suicidal cultists the same way Jonestown was, and played into their hands and made them martyrs. Dr. James Tabor, a Biblical scholar, heard about the situation on CNN and studied what the Davidians believed and went on the air with another scholar, and tried to offer an alternative Biblical interpretation to get Koresh to give himself up to the authorities willingly.

Tabor and Arnold made a tape—a long, technical discussion of an alternative reading of Revelation—aired it on the radio, and sent it to Koresh. Koresh listened and was persuaded. He had been called a liar, a child molester, a con man, and a phony messiah. He had been invited to treat his children like bargaining chips and his followers like hostages. But now someone was taking his beliefs seriously. “I am presently being permitted to document in structured form the decoded messages of the seven seals,” he wrote back. “Upon the completion of this task, I will be freed of my waiting period. . . . As soon as I can see that people like Jim Tabor and Phil Arnold have a copy, I will come out and then you can do your thing with this beast.”

Inside Mount Carmel, Doyle writes, there was rejoicing. Soon they would all come out together, and the ordeal would be over. The F.B.I., however, remained skeptical. “Then what’s next?” one of the agents in charge allegedly said. “He’s going to write his memoirs?”

...

That conversation took place on Friday, April 16th. [Branch Davidian suvivor Clive] Doyle says that he thinks Koresh would have finished the manuscript within two weeks. The F.B.I. waited three days. By the morning of April 19th, the Feds had had enough. The F.B.I.’s tanks rumbled up to the Mount Carmel buildings, and punched holes in the walls with their mechanical arms. [...]

So let's say the FBI take the scholars seriously, and Koresh does as well, and does give himself up for custody at the end of two weeks. The crisis is defused, the children are taken into foster care, and the adults are arrested or deprogrammed or what have you. One of the seminal examples of the modern federal government attacking Americans would be gone.

So does this mean the Oklahoma City Bombing doesn't happen? The '90s becomes less of a period for right-wing domestic extremism? Maybe libertarian movements have one less event to point at when decrying the dangers of government?
 
The fish rots at the head first. That management consulting catch phrase sums up the situation within the FBI/Justice Dept. Attorney General Reno & her fellow travlers had created a culture of hysteria over fringe groups. It may have run in other directions as well, but it resulted in pointless law enforcement actions and deaths such as at Waco & Ruby Ridge. Beyond that the FBI wasted thousands of labor hours fruitlessly investigating 'militias'.

The person/s who did the Oklahoma City attack probablly would have found some other excuse. Generally it is a head case looking for a cause, not the otherway around.
 
I just thought that if the best-case scenario that Gladwell hints at was true, that if Tabor and Arnold were able to convince Koresh to finish his prophecies, and that led to him willingly turning himself into the authorities, it would be really Da Vinci Code-esque. It would be an actual example in history of modern day scholars utilizing obscure, esoteric knowledge in order to defuse a situation involving ideologically exotic, fringe extremists. Would make for a lot of subsequent jokes of, "You're getting a Divinity degree? Well maybe you'll get called in by the FBI as a consultant!" Maybe it's more like Dan Brown meets Tom Clancy.

The outlandishness of that scenario aside, having one less atrocity that could be cited by anti-government groups in America would shift the political landscape as we know it.
 
Certainly could not hurt. Unfortunatly lawyers & law enforcement are not usually history fans so the odds are against Religious scholars of any sort being taken seriously.
 
if we're honest with ourselves, I think we might realize and admit sometimes just how very relatively few examples can lead us to form a conclusion.

So, yes, having one less anti-government example might well make a difference, then again, it might not. For purposes of a POD and interesting history, that tension and uncertainty is kind of delicious
 
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The fish rots at the head first. That management consulting catch phrase sums up the situation within the FBI/Justice Dept. Attorney General Reno & her fellow travlers had created a culture of hysteria over fringe groups. It may have run in other directions as well, but it resulted in pointless law enforcement actions and deaths such as at Waco & Ruby Ridge. Beyond that the FBI wasted thousands of labor hours fruitlessly investigating 'militias'.

The person/s who did the Oklahoma City attack probablly would have found some other excuse. Generally it is a head case looking for a cause, not the otherway around.
Part was also the role of William Webster, the director of the FBI, as well as FBI agents in general (The Danforth Report found that the FBI- disregarding orders from Reno- had used rounds with pyrotechnic components in the assault of April 19th). Reno did not get sworn until March 11th, in the middle of the siege. (Though, to be fair, Reno argued for the April 19th raid- against the advice of Bill Clinton. Clinton was governor of Arkansas at the time of the siege of the White Supremacist "The Covenant, The Sword and The Arm of the Lord", where a blockade helped defuse the situation without bloodshed.)

I just thought that if the best-case scenario that Gladwell hints at was true, that if Tabor and Arnold were able to convince Koresh to finish his prophecies, and that led to him willingly turning himself into the authorities, it would be really Da Vinci Code-esque. It would be an actual example in history of modern day scholars utilizing obscure, esoteric knowledge in order to defuse a situation involving ideologically exotic, fringe extremists. Would make for a lot of subsequent jokes of, "You're getting a Divinity degree? Well maybe you'll get called in by the FBI as a consultant!" Maybe it's more like Dan Brown meets Tom Clancy.

The outlandishness of that scenario aside, having one less atrocity that could be cited by anti-government groups in America would shift the political landscape as we know it.

Agreed. It would likely prevent Oklahoma City and similar events.
As for the first bit, lest we forget, there were two works of popular culture around that time which involved the FBI being involved with what some may consider esoteric stuff. One was "The Silence of the Lambs", which dealt with the then-new field of profiling, and one began later in 1993, "The X-Files."
 
Part was also the role of William Webster, the director of the FBI, as well as FBI agents in general (The Danforth Report found that the FBI- disregarding orders from Reno- had used rounds with pyrotechnic components in the assault of April 19th). Reno did not get sworn until March 11th, in the middle of the siege. (Though, to be fair, Reno argued for the April 19th raid- against the advice of Bill Clinton. Clinton was governor of Arkansas at the time of the siege of the White Supremacist "The Covenant, The Sword and The Arm of the Lord", where a blockade helped defuse the situation without bloodshed.)



Agreed. It would likely prevent Oklahoma City and similar events.
As for the first bit, lest we forget, there were two works of popular culture around that time which involved the FBI being involved with what some may consider esoteric stuff. One was "The Silence of the Lambs", which dealt with the then-new field of profiling, and one began later in 1993, "The X-Files."

Whatever happened in Waco I doubt it would have stopped McVeigh. I agree with Carl these guys are looking for an excuse to cause mayhem. If it weren't over Waco he would have found some other stupid excuse to blow up buildings.
 
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