W/I : Battle of France Happens Winter 1939

If Germany Launched a French Invasion in 1939..

  • Germany would be defeated

    Votes: 54 78.3%
  • France would be defeated

    Votes: 15 21.7%

  • Total voters
    69
The Germans had during Fall Weiss more than 2400 tanks, organized into 6 Pz. Div. Unless the French mobilize preemptively, they will be substantially outnumbered in all categories.

Of these, less than 400 will be PzIII/IV. The French will have better morale and the Germans will still have to cross Belgium to get to the French forces. Or go through Maginot.

Polish campaign was only 10 days shorter, and the Germans weren't exactly running out when it was done. Sure, if the whole things drags on for far more than ~2 months, then you are right. But if that's the case, ammo would be irrelevant anyway, since the German attack would have obviously failed to produce results, and in a battle of attrition, the Heer is bound to lose.

But you are talking of a two front war. The Polish will probably attack from the east and the Germans will need the ammunition there, too. And they were decidedly not swimming in artillery shells or bombs for airplanes. They almost ran out by the end of the Polish campaign. The campaign against the French would require more ammo.



Do they all lock themselves in their refrigerators or someting? By December, things would have long been settled one way or the other.

Come November or December, the coal situation (critical even OTL) would be unbearable. With two front war, movement of troops and military supplies to the East and to the West with limited rolling stock, more coal is left piling up in the mines. Steel production will suffer too. But yeah, you are right they will not freeze instantly. In winter, though...

Does he attack Poland to get there?

That was the idea. I believe they called it Molotov-Ribbentrop pact.:)
 

Redbeard

Banned
The Germans did considder attacking France already in 1939 but to their horror realised that very little arty ammo was available after the Polish campaign - the socalled ammo crisis. An attack in 1939 was therefore given up.

A major campaign without arty ammo is doomed - on top of all the other good reasons given alreday in this thread.
 
This has the potential to be a bataille de pas lourd a bord du trottoir, frankly. Probably only a 20% chance of that, but this works out heavily to the advantage of the Allies compared to OTL.
 
Hmm..

So is there no conceivable way a 1939 offensive could have succeed?

I mean the German CAS squadrons were the most experienced in the world.

depending on the minimum altitude they must fly at to be effective in blitzkrieg tactics (which admittedly I don't know) surely they could be effective in winter combat.

Plus think about the men and armaments spent in the Norwegian campaign and occupation. That would immediately be available in this ATL offensive.

Plus the artic conditions of the 39 winter might HELP the panzer divisions penetrate quickly into the French lines, especially with most the French soldiers held up in their warm bunkers.

It's the Germany infantry that I see having the most problem.
 
Oh, and one 'minor' detail... Stalin says hello from Gdansk :)

In order to do so the purged Red Army first needs to defeat Poland and its ally Romania. Once Stalin invades, both Poland and Germany are likely to withdraw the forces fighting each other to the French and Soviet fronts respectively because they will be more urgent, leading to a "phoney war" in the east instead of the west.
 
I mean the German CAS squadrons were the most experienced in the world.
Doesn't help much if you can't see the ground.

depending on the minimum altitude they must fly at to be effective in blitzkrieg tactics (which admittedly I don't know) surely they could be effective in winter combat.
Minimum altitude for a Stuka at least is quite high - they are DIVE bombers after all. The real issue is navigation and landing safely back at base - blind landing aids hadn't been developed yet, nor had radio navaids. They were down to flying based on map and compass, over unfamiliar terrain and trying to fight at the same time. They could probably be effective, but they wouldn't stay effective for very long.

Plus think about the men and armaments spent in the Norwegian campaign and occupation. That would immediately be available in this ATL offensive.
Doesn't help much - Norway mostly hit the Kriegsmarine, and instead of campaign in Norway you're recovering from one in Poland instead. That was a far bigger one, so again you're worse off.

Plus the artic conditions of the 39 winter might HELP the panzer divisions penetrate quickly into the French lines, especially with most the French soldiers held up in their warm bunkers.
No chance. The French will come out quickly enough when there's someone to fight. In the meantime they're dry, warm and under cover while the landsers are soaked to the skin, getting frostbite, and getting hit badly by the French artillery. Believe me, in those circumstances a nice warm bunker is worth a hell of a lot to the effectiveness of the troops who hold it.

It's the Germany infantry that I see having the most problem.
Yep. Which given that they'll be doing most of the work (the Panzers, artillery and Luftwaffe being vastly weaker than in May 1940) is very bad news indeed.
 
A game buddy I tried to game this once. When we made a straight up evaluation of the Pz Div strength, and of the infantry divisions/corps of both sides it came out way in favor of the French. Even as late as January/Feb 1940 the French ground forces add up to larger firepower, and the Germans had not completed the intense training work up cycle that gave them the operational/tactical advantages in may 1940. Actually they had barely started it & the majority of units mobilized since August were as badly stale in training as the French. Only a small protion had directly benefitted from the Polish campaign, and the lessons had not yet been effectively dissimenated to the bulk of the ground and air forces.

we never actually got around to gaming it out. Tho from other Case Yellow games I can say that when the German air forces are significantly reduced by weather the ground forces typically fail. The Germans had good divisional artillery, but their corps and army medium & heavy artillery were very badly out numbered. In weight of fire the Germans are completely out classed and cant sustain stand up battles of more than a few days. If the air force cant make up the difference the French artillery dominates.
 
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