W.I. Adlai Stevenson in 1960?

departue

Gone Fishin'
if Stevenson gets the nomination a third time in a row can he defeat Vice President Nixon?
 
Probably not he was seen as an egghead and lacked JFK's charisma plus he wouldn't win the black vote as he sided with segregationists. Though it would be closer than the other two times. Have the economy be worse and he might have a chance.
 
Stevenson--divorced and dovish--would have serious problems with the Catholic vote. This would be especially true if JFK ran, won most of the primaries, but was denied the nomination by the "bosses" at the convention--there would be a lot of resentment from Catholics who would think (with some justification) that he had been denied the nomination because of his religion. This could damage any Democratic nominee with Catholic voters, but Stevenson IMO even more than Symington or Johnson. Also, while I wouldn't say that he "sided with segregationists" he did try to win southern support in 1956 by taking a moderate "gradualist" line on civil rights, and this hurt him with the African American vote in 1956 http://cupola.gettysburg.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1295&context=student_scholarship and might do so again in 1960.
 
We all know Stevenson tried at the LA convention in '60; I have to wonder if the ghost of William Jennings Bryan didn't help Kennedy somewhat: namely, the haunting spectre of going to the well three times with the same man and having nothing to show for it. Had he secured the nomination, I suspect Nixon would have taken him apart rather neatly: as quick-witted and adept at debate as Stevenson was, Nixon went one-on-one with Khrushchev and came out on the long end of that one.

Just to play the game a little more, Stevenson's running mate would have become singularly important, especially if renominated in 1964: recall that Stevenson died in 1965 IOTL. Perhaps that's how Kennedy gets to be president: stepping up from VP to succeed Stevenson. If so, that butterflies away Dallas as we know it. On the flip side, Kennedy by age 51 in 1968 might have experienced the beginnings of real problems with his health, and nomination for a full term in his own right might be in question. In turn that suggests Kennedy would be moderately well thought of as Stevenson's successor whose time was curtailed voluntarily by poor health. He certainly would not be the icon he is today.

The "dovish" part mentioned by David T makes me wonder how Cuba in '62 would have played out. I wonder if that might have engendered a rift between Stevenson and Kennedy? And what of Viet Nam? No / fewer advisors? And would some / all of this made Stevenson vulnerable in '64?

The more I ruminate on this, the more I become convinced that if elected in 1960, Stevenson would have served a full term, possibly plus a bit, and would be thought of just on the good side of so-so...roughly like Taft IOTL.
 
The election IOTL was so close that I just assumed when I first read this that a Stevenson-Nixon race would have resulted in a victory for Nixon.

However, checking the Wikipedia page on the election, I'm not so sure. I only see three Kennedy states that I'm confident that Stevenson would not have been able to carry, New Jersey (0.8% margin IOTL), Nevada (2.3% margin), and New Mexico (0.7% margin). These three states combined for 23 electoral votes, not enough to push Nixon over the edge While the closest Kennedy states were Illinois, Missouri, and Hawaii, I don't see Kennedy as having an advantage over Stevenson as a candidate in them. These

The margins IOTL in New York were 5.3% and in Pennsylvania with 2.3%. Stevenson would have struggled to carry New York as opposed to Kennedy, and this would have been enough to elect Nixon. Pennsylvania is different, its always close and it doesn't have a higher percentage of Catholics than the national average.

With Kennedy as a running mate instead of LBJ, Stevenson might carry all the northeastern Kennedy states but New Jersey, but could well lose Texas. With LBJ as a running mate, he probably loses enough northeastern states to be denied the election.

The closest Nixon states were California, Alaska, and Washington. Stevenson does less well than Kennedy in California, and Alaska is a wash. I had first thought he might do a little better in Washington, but then his dovishness would have not gone down well there. Stevenson does pick up the Byrd electoral votes.

It looks like either a Nixon victory, or an electoral reversal, with Stevenson losing the popular votes but winning enough of the northeastern states by very narrow margins to prevail in the Electoral College.
 
Other JFK states Stevenson might lose include Connecticut (heavily Catholic and 64% for Ike in 1956, well above his national average) and--believe it or not--Massachusetts (not nearly as Democratic in those days as it would later be, and likely to be *very* upset if JFK is not nominated. Don't forget that it went for Dewey in 1948 and for Ike by better than his national percentage in 1956...) And I disagree that he would carry Illinois, with its large Catholic and African American vote. Despite his native son status, he lost Illinois by more than his national margin in 1956. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1956 (In fact, Stevenson actually lost not just Cook County but even the city of Chicago! http://archives.chicagotribune.com/...le/canvass-finds-ike-won-city-by-42-067-votes) I also doubt he could carry Michigan (again, a large Catholic and African American vote).

In any event, I think that if JFK is stopped, the convention is far more likely to go for LBJ or Symington than Stevenson. (Even Eugene McCarthy, who delivered a stirring speech for Stevenson, is widely to believed to have really favored LBJ and to have hoped to be his running mate; he was just trying to pry liberals away from JFK...)
 
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