Von Stauffenberg is able to pack the extra bomb

What does everybody think would have happened if 66 years ago today Von Stauffenberg had been able to pack the extra bomb? I think that the Nazi leadership is able to stop the coup. I think there is then a power struggle that hurts the German war effort
 
I'm not so sure. If Stauffenburg is able to kill Hitler, get away cleanly, and execute Valkyrie, then what exactly stops the coup?
 

Typo

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Everything from the plotter's own completely ineptness to the SS

The most vital point of the coup are the first two hours after the explosion, the plotters completely failed to do -any- of the things which would grant the plot a possibility of success, they did not occupy the Berlin telephone exchange, nor did they arrest the only major Nazi official: Goebbels in Berlin even though he was unguarded or even cut off his telephone line. They did not occupy the headquarters of the SD and Gestapo, they made no radio broadcasts. The majority of the army was going to remain neutral until the coup actually succeed. Even the plotters themselves, like von tresckow, knew the plot was going to fail and wanted to execute Valkyrie as a gesture to the world. But the sheer amateurishness and indecisiveness of the plotters were outright amazing.

Even with Hitler dead, it is doubtful that the plotters would have being able to do any of those things before the SS arrest them
 
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Markus

Banned
What does everybody think would have happened if 66 years ago today Von Stauffenberg had been able to pack the extra bomb? I think that the Nazi leadership is able to stop the coup. I think there is then a power struggle that hurts the German war effort

Life was more absured that this WI. Stauffenberg did have another bomb in his briefcase ... and took it out as he could not arm it. It never occured to him that the explosion of the first bomb would...well, set off the second one.

AFAIK Hitler would have been killed if Stauffenberg had left both bombs in his briefcase. After that, the plotters might or moght not have survived but the Nazi regime and with it the war would have been over in a very short time as Hitler and only Hitler was able to get the military, the party and the public behind him. Himmler and Goebbels could never get the military and the general public on their side.
 
Plotters get their butts kicked, and sooner or later Himmler (as he did in OTL) realises the war is lost, only to discover that the western allies have no more interest in negotiating with him than they did Hitler.

Still with Hitler out of the way I can see most forces being moved to the Eastern front with a skeleton force (to save face) in the west, as the generals try to save what they can by keeping the soviets as far east as possible (I doubt Goring, Goebbels or Himmler could ever control the army the way Hitler did, and the generals probably had a rather better idea of just how bad things were by mid '44).

One unfortunate and unintended consquence is that Hitler is now murdered rather than taking the cowards way out as he did in our world, hence neo-nazis would have a far easier time claiming he was an aryan martyr. (Ever noticed how neo-nazi's never seem to talk about that, or they claim it's all a jewish lie and their hero was murdered:rolleyes:).
 
Life was more absured that this WI. Stauffenberg did have another bomb in his briefcase ... and took it out as he could not arm it. It never occured to him that the explosion of the first bomb would...well, set off the second one.

AFAIK Hitler would have been killed if Stauffenberg had left both bombs in his briefcase. After that, the plotters might or moght not have survived but the Nazi regime and with it the war would have been over in a very short time as Hitler and only Hitler was able to get the military, the party and the public behind him. Himmler and Goebbels could never get the military and the general public on their side.

The Discovery Channel had a show on that theme. They did tests with a mockup of the briefing hut, a replica of the table, and several test dummies. Weirdly enough, when they did the first test, with a bomb approximating the original, the Hitler-dummy had wounds remarkably similar to the actual wounds.

They ran two further tests, one with the bomb in its original place, the other with the second bomb in the briefcase, unfuzed. Both produced Führer-shattering KABOOMS!
 
The Discovery Channel had a show on that theme. They did tests with a mockup of the briefing hut, a replica of the table, and several test dummies. Weirdly enough, when they did the first test, with a bomb approximating the original, the Hitler-dummy had wounds remarkably similar to the actual wounds.

They ran two further tests, one with the bomb in its original place, the other with the second bomb in the briefcase, unfuzed. Both produced Führer-shattering KABOOMS!

Ah, the Discovery Channel. History investigated as if it were an episode of MythBusters - which at least doesn't take itself too seriously. At least they didn't go the History Channel route and bring up Nazi witchcraft.

Alas, the simple fact is that the July 20 conspirators were poorly organized, indecisive, and completely misunderstood how the Allies would deal with them if they did suceed in killing Hitler and taking power. By mid 1944 Germany's (not nazi Germany's) fate was sealed. The Allies would not negotiate with them other than to affect a complete unconditional surrender - including to the USSR. Almost all of the plotters believed (if they thought about it at all) that they would be able to negotiate an "honorable" peace with the Wallies once Hitler was removed and save themselves from inevitable and justifiable Russian retribution. That ignores that fact that US and British policy makers and propagandists in 1944 saw Germany itself as the enemy, not just the Nazi party. This of course changed in the post-war period, but was not the wartime view.
 
Ah, the Discovery Channel. History investigated as if it were an episode of MythBusters - which at least doesn't take itself too seriously. At least they didn't go the History Channel route and bring up Nazi witchcraft.

Alas, the simple fact is that the July 20 conspirators were poorly organized, indecisive, and completely misunderstood how the Allies would deal with them if they did suceed in killing Hitler and taking power. By mid 1944 Germany's (not nazi Germany's) fate was sealed. The Allies would not negotiate with them other than to affect a complete unconditional surrender - including to the USSR. Almost all of the plotters believed (if they thought about it at all) that they would be able to negotiate an "honorable" peace with the Wallies once Hitler was removed and save themselves from inevitable and justifiable Russian retribution. That ignores that fact that US and British policy makers and propagandists in 1944 saw Germany itself as the enemy, not just the Nazi party. This of course changed in the post-war period, but was not the wartime view.

But you forget all the other factors. Would the war have ended earlier with Germany's beloved leader dead? Or would there be an SS-Wehrmacht civil war? Personally I believe the war would have ended earlier and the terms would've been a lot less harsh. A lot less destruction, etc. Much would've changed, so your scenario where nothing changes is kind of... meh.
 
Part of the reason Valkyrie was never really executed was that the conspirators wanted confirmation that Hitler was dead. If the blast had been twice as powerful, there might have been much less doubt that Hitler may have survived, and the plan might have gone into force sooner.
 
Alas, the simple fact is that the July 20 conspirators were poorly organized, indecisive, and completely misunderstood how the Allies would deal with them if they did suceed in killing Hitler and taking power. By mid 1944 Germany's (not nazi Germany's) fate was sealed. The Allies would not negotiate with them other than to affect a complete unconditional surrender - including to the USSR. Almost all of the plotters believed (if they thought about it at all) that they would be able to negotiate an "honorable" peace with the Wallies once Hitler was removed and save themselves from inevitable and justifiable Russian retribution. That ignores that fact that US and British policy makers and propagandists in 1944 saw Germany itself as the enemy, not just the Nazi party. This of course changed in the post-war period, but was not the wartime view.

Well, yes, the sad irony is that if they had assassinated Hitler, they would have been left with no other choices than either surrendering unconditionally (which I do not see happening, at least not outright) or being force to continue fighting, which is something that could go either ways:

The great advantage that they would not be bound to Hitler's insanity and impracticality (and, especially in the last months of the war, total delusion). This means they will probably not fight on beyond anything reasonable like under Hitler. However, OTOH for the same reasons they might perform better than OTL. For example by pouring soldiers into halting the Soviet advance in the East instead of pouring them into the Ardennes Offensive: after all, the Americans did slow down even without the Ardennes Offensive, perhaps forcing the Americans to take Berlin. The effect is that this might prolong the war by weeks, if not by months. The latter is extremely problematic because this could mean that the atomic bomb is dropped on Germany after all. There is also the chance that Germany grows extremely desperate and unleashes it's chemical weapons on the battlefield, which could make WWII take a far more gruesome turn, as the Allies would have returned that in favour, which would dramatically increase civilian casualties from the war.

Plus, post-war there is the (although slim) possibility of a new Dolchstoßlegende arising.

I should add, while none of the above scenarios is inevitable, the key is that Germany could have fared worse if Hitler had been successfully assassinated.

The only context, realistically, in which Germany could still yield a better outcome (ie, a peace on conditions) is that Stalin dies before the Tehran Conference. However, what I do not know is what butterflies that would have on the outcome of the war itself.
 
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