von Diebitsch meets disaster

During the Russo-Turkish War of 1828–1829, the energetic Russian commander, Field Marshal von Diebitsch, led the Russian army over the Balkan mountains (rather than laying siege to Shumla, as the Turks expected) and mostly through the psychological shock his actions and speed inflicted on the Turks, went through the Ottoman heartland like hotshot through a tindebox. This resulted in the Ottomans suing for peace, and ultimately the treaty of Adrianople.

However, the crossing of the mountains had left his army in very poor shape - it had lost several thousand men, and those that were left were tired and sick. It has been said that if the Turks had kept their heads, they could have wiped his army out completely.

Certainly, the Russian supreme commander and an army of 35,000 men being completely smashed would have been a great victory for the Turks, but I wonder how much difference von Diebitsch's transbalkan offensive failing would really make? Would the Russians simply fight on for another year or two until they had achieved enough victories to compensate for the early defeat? Could a great victory against Russia have changed the course of the Greek war of Independence? Would such a victory have aided Mahmud II's reform programs? Might we see Serbia and the Danubian principalities (which gained effective autonomy in the treaty of Adrianople) integrated more closely with the rest of the Turkish domains again?

What do people think?

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Hecatee

Donor
A massive russian defeat would mean the ability for the Turks to send reinforcements to Greece for at least one, if not even two, seasons. The Russians, if they do not immediately sue for peace, will probably require at least a year to rebuild a manoeuvre army.

The Turkish army could also try to go on the offensive, but I think their logistics and cooler heads in Topkapi might prevent that.

As for the reforms, it might not help them that much because the old ways would probably be proven right in the eyes of many if they can deliver such a victory.
 
As for the reforms, it might not help them that much because the old ways would probably be proven right in the eyes of many if they can deliver such a victory.

The Ottoman army at this point was the very vanguard of modernity - so the army winning is not going to "prove the old ways right". If anything, it would prove the opposite, since OTL, the conservative military pundits could say "you tried the European way and got whupped anyway, you should have embraced the Turkish light cavalry like we told you".

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