I think you are confusing Washington the capital with Washington the state. The Hanford site mentioned is in Washington state, near Pasco. It's about 2,500 miles, a continent and 3 time zones away from Washington, DC.
Voices of Doomsday
- Thread starter Geon
- Start date
I think you are confusing Washington the capital with Washington the state. The Hanford site mentioned is in Washington state, near Pasco. It's about 2,500 miles, a continent and 3 time zones away from Washington, DC.
the nuclear winter scenario, and the replacement for it, nuclear autumn, is based on blast effects and the fires that follow detonations, not the radiation effects.
So while you are right, contamination and fallout would indeed by ugly in terms of areas effected in the early 1960s compared to the relatively efficient (and thus 'cleaner') warheads of this century, what matters more for climate impact is the amount of soot, ash and smoke generated by attacks.
The big weapons of this era seem likely from everything I have read to have generated a nuclear autumn type scenario, best illustrated in historical terms by the 1816 Year Without a Summer (Mount Tambora volcanic explosion of that year) with perhaps a lengthier period of impact (because of the wider spread of the fires and smoke generated).
But even within a few months after the initial 'nuclear winter' scenario was presented it was modified with better information... not that widespread harvest failures would be desirable by any means
Schell's book "Fate of the Earth" which is also a pretty sobering scenario also has its flaws in that it presupposes that both sides will conduct nuclear carpet bombing of each others urban areas and have the ability to do so. But for what probably happened in Europe and European Russia (where density of targets does mean in effect nuclear carpet bombing), it is not a bad guide at all
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Fate_of_the_Earth
With atomic or hydrogen warheads, an air burst is still an air burst regardless of size and relatively clean; the definition being the fireball not touching the surface. A surface burst; in which the fireball touches the surface; will pick up soil and water, irradiate it and then dump it down wind for a couple hundred miles depending on the size of the device. Castle Bravo is a perfect example of that.
Surface bursts are only required for hardened targets or area denial. Air bursts are preferred for soft targets such as cities due to greater area of affect through the combination of the initial blast wave and the ground reflected blast wave reinforcing each other at an optimum detonation height.
marathag
Banned
But it still made a difference on staging, some used Lead, or use more Uranium Tamper, and how much fusion occurred from the tritium vs the fission product, the more fusion%, the 'cleaner' the detonation would be, even with a ground burst.
The US fielded only one three stage Bomb, the 10,000 pound 25 Megaton Mk-41. It was the most 'efficient' hydrogen bomb ever fielded.
Want to know more? http://www.ieri.be/fr/publications/ierinews/2011/juillet/fission-fusion-and-staging
All commenters need to remember that the author is using another Users timeline as the basis for his work- if the 'Cuban Missile War' said the place had fallout etc thats what the author has to work on, not the 'reality' of things as we may know them now. The original author has been posting again about a revision on the original thread, so it might be worth posting ideas about 'nuclear winter' etc there instead?
Though it seems to be something of an article of faith in some quarters that nuclear winter wouldn't be as bad as various predictions have suggested, there have been a number of studies in recent years which tend to support the idea that it would be very bad indeed. There's this 2007 paper: http://www.atmos-chem-phys.org/7/2003/2007/acp-7-2003-2007.pdf , which looked at the consequences of a "limited" exchange between Pakistan and India of 100 Hiroshima-sized (15 kt each) weapons. They found that global climate would be significantly disrupted for a decade following such an exchange.
Here is a 2008 study by some of the same authors which examines not only the above India-Pakistan scenario, but the consequences of a general exchange by the largest nuclear powers assuming their levels of armament in 2008:
http://www.atmos-chem-phys.org/7/2003/2007/acp-7-2003-2007.pdf
Here also is a graph from that paper, with the predicted effects of such a war on the length of growing seasons in Iowa and Ukraine. In short, they predict a good portion of the world's surviving population would starve. I know I sure wouldn't want to live in such a world if I could avoid it.
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Well, it's not as if it takes a high level of civilization or technology to support some sort of book-printing trade. I mean, by 1700 there were enough books produced in Europe that - if evenly distributed - every single inhabitant could have had at least one or two.
Castle Bravo was a runaway surface burst - the excessive fallout was a combination of that runaway and the 2km wide crater it carved in the atoll. I don't know why you are comparing it to an airburst. I'm not saying there would be or is no fallout from airbursts, but Castle Bravo is not a good basis for comparison in this context.
Castle Bravo is definitely one of 'oh shit we may have screwed up' moments in history
Was that the test where they expected 5 Megatons and got 15? Where they found out that if the material they used to moderate the fusion got hot enough, it would fuse also?
Yes it was test of first dry fuel hydrogen bomb "The Shrimp device"
Instead of liquid cryogenic deuterium in previous test, here they used lithium deuteride a solid at room temperature.
The designers of the Shrimp device made fatal error to under estimate the lithium-7 isotope in solid fuel they assumed to be inert.
during ignition of the Shrimp device the lithium-7 reacted with neutrons emitting by nuclear charge, transform into tritium emoting also a neutron
This reaction produce far more neutrons as expected, what interacted with the remaining uranium of bomb and boosted yield from 5 to 15 megatons.
That was a major "oops", and extremely bad for the fishing boat(s) downwind. Lucky Dragon, iirc.
Back in Springfield
Geon
Donor
Here is a brief update. Hopefully more in a day or two.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
In Springfield Illinois Robert Hetrick would later write of his experiences on The Last Day.
“All day we sat in front of the radio listening as the bad news poured in. Periodically Dad and I would go to check up on our neighbors who were in our cellar. They had their own radio and were listening as intently as we were.
During one of the trips to our cellar from the shelter I was struck by just how eerily quiet things were around us. It was like some of those science fiction movies where the world had ended and you were all alone with nobody else around. There wasn’t a sound of traffic on the streets or of dogs barking or anything. It was all completely silent and completely unsettling.
Listening to the cities being attacked reminded us how close we lived to Chicago and that we might get fallout from Chicago should it be hit. But around mid-day we got word that the Soviet bomber that had been targeting Chicago had been shot down using a BOMARC missile. Dad told us the BOMARC was a nuclear surface to air missile but if the bomber had been shot down in the air there would be little to no fallout.
Listening to President Johnson toward the end of the day I had some strange mixed feelings. We still had a country left. But there weren’t going to be any mid-term elections. That concerned me, mom, and dad. Yes, we had a country left but what kind of country was it going to be?
To be sure we didn’t lose as much as the Soviets did as we learned much later. But still our capital, our largest cities, who knew how many people were dead. As we went to bed that night I knew the world I had known just a few days ago was gone for good. What was going to replace it? Nobody knew. (Robert Hetrick; The Shelter Journals)
---------------------------------------------------------------------
In Springfield Illinois Robert Hetrick would later write of his experiences on The Last Day.
“All day we sat in front of the radio listening as the bad news poured in. Periodically Dad and I would go to check up on our neighbors who were in our cellar. They had their own radio and were listening as intently as we were.
During one of the trips to our cellar from the shelter I was struck by just how eerily quiet things were around us. It was like some of those science fiction movies where the world had ended and you were all alone with nobody else around. There wasn’t a sound of traffic on the streets or of dogs barking or anything. It was all completely silent and completely unsettling.
Listening to the cities being attacked reminded us how close we lived to Chicago and that we might get fallout from Chicago should it be hit. But around mid-day we got word that the Soviet bomber that had been targeting Chicago had been shot down using a BOMARC missile. Dad told us the BOMARC was a nuclear surface to air missile but if the bomber had been shot down in the air there would be little to no fallout.
Listening to President Johnson toward the end of the day I had some strange mixed feelings. We still had a country left. But there weren’t going to be any mid-term elections. That concerned me, mom, and dad. Yes, we had a country left but what kind of country was it going to be?
To be sure we didn’t lose as much as the Soviets did as we learned much later. But still our capital, our largest cities, who knew how many people were dead. As we went to bed that night I knew the world I had known just a few days ago was gone for good. What was going to replace it? Nobody knew. (Robert Hetrick; The Shelter Journals)
Nice update. I remember being a very little kid and scared by being in a basement waiting out a tornado warning. This would be multiples worse. Springfield, by the way, wouldn't just be worried about Chicago. It's also pretty close to St. Louis. From a greater distance, depending on prevailing winds, fallout from Omaha and Kansas City might be a concern and both were, IIRC, hit.
Johnson in the Bunker
Geon
Donor
Here is a brief update on the war as seen from LBJ"s viewpoint.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Deep beneath Mount Weather, newly appointed President Lyndon B. Johnson pondered the future in the small suite of rooms set aside for himself and his family. His wife was taking a well-deserved rest in the bedroom. In the small living room President Johnson had gone for a brief time to himself.
Lyndon had run for the Presidential nomination of his party in 1960. Later, to attract the southern vote he had been offered the vice-presidency which he had reluctantly accepted. Johnson had never wanted the job of Vice-President. He much preferred the active role of the Senate majority leader. In the White House he had been essentially the “invisible man”. He hated the job.
But, as much as Johnson hated being Vice-President he hated becoming President even more. It was one thing to be elected to that office. But to have to come to it as he had as a result of a nuclear attack on Washington was something he had only thought about in his darkest dreams.
Walking through the corridors earlier he had seen Robert Kennedy escorting JFK’s wife, Jackie to their assigned quarters. The look on Robert’s face ever so briefly as he passed President Johnson showed anger and bitterness. Johnson would later write.
The look on Bobby’s face briefly betrayed the bitterness, anger, and frustration that he felt as a result of the events of this terrible day. And ever so briefly I felt that anger and frustration being levelled at me with that brief and awful look in his eyes. (From the Leavenworth Memoirs by former President Lyndon B. Johnson)
President Johnson tried to push the incident out of his mind. Robert was understandably grief stricken for his older brother and concerned for members of his family at Hyannis Port. A marine helicopter had been sent to airlift them to a safe area, but as of yet no word had been received if they were all right.
The war was still going on. Several Soviet missile submarines were unaccounted for and might still be able to launch an attack at the country. Johnson had already ordered a second strike against surviving Russian and Warsaw Pact military assets. Where possible population centers would be spared but many of those bases were near cities. There was simply no way to avoid civilian casualties when one was fighting with nuclear weapons.
A message had been sent in the clear over radio to whatever leadership in the Soviet Union still survived and to members of the Warsaw Pact requesting a meeting by radio or telephone. So far, no one was answering. Analysts suspected that most of the ranking Soviet leadership was dead. Most of their command and control bunkers were known to the U.S. and its allies. Many of those bunkers had been targets of the first and second strikes. If there was any leadership military or civilian left alive it was likely very low on the totem pole.
Johnson had received word from U-Thant who was now in route on a specially chartered jet to Geneva, Switzerland along with survivors and staff of the United Nations. To be sure air travel was dangerous but the leader of the U.N felt it was imperative that he and his staff begin work on reestablishing that organization as soon as possible. The jet had a U.S. fighter escort that would stay with it as far as the Swiss air space. During the flight U-Thant had heard from the Chinese. Evidently the North Koreans were preparing to take advantage of the chaos and launch an attack on South Korea within the next day or so.
In Europe Johnson had lost contact with any personnel from NATO. His military analysts were still trying to find out and raise whoever was now in charge of NATO forces. What limited intelligence was going on indicated that Soviet and Warsaw Pact forces were now in a state of total disarray as their command structure disintegrated. Some were still fighting but others were retreating back to their home countries, or what was left of them.
In this country Johnson knew he was facing the worse disaster either man-made or natural that any President had faced ever. Preliminary estimates had the death toll at least at 5 million. And that was a conservative early estimate. It was likely the toll would climb much higher as the days and weeks passed. The very infrastructure of the U.S. had been badly damaged and there was no telling how long or how expensive the rebuilding would be. The nation most Americans had known when they had gone to bed a week ago was gone forever. It was time to face a new and very harsh reality.
For Johnson it was very clear drastic measure would be needed if the U.S. was to recover. He recalled Truman’s saying, “The buck stops here.” That was so true now. He had to be the one now to begin the slow process of recovery and rebuilding. He knew the measures he took would not be popular, but he would let history decide whether his decisions were right or wrong. For now a wounded nation needed to be put back together.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Deep beneath Mount Weather, newly appointed President Lyndon B. Johnson pondered the future in the small suite of rooms set aside for himself and his family. His wife was taking a well-deserved rest in the bedroom. In the small living room President Johnson had gone for a brief time to himself.
Lyndon had run for the Presidential nomination of his party in 1960. Later, to attract the southern vote he had been offered the vice-presidency which he had reluctantly accepted. Johnson had never wanted the job of Vice-President. He much preferred the active role of the Senate majority leader. In the White House he had been essentially the “invisible man”. He hated the job.
But, as much as Johnson hated being Vice-President he hated becoming President even more. It was one thing to be elected to that office. But to have to come to it as he had as a result of a nuclear attack on Washington was something he had only thought about in his darkest dreams.
Walking through the corridors earlier he had seen Robert Kennedy escorting JFK’s wife, Jackie to their assigned quarters. The look on Robert’s face ever so briefly as he passed President Johnson showed anger and bitterness. Johnson would later write.
The look on Bobby’s face briefly betrayed the bitterness, anger, and frustration that he felt as a result of the events of this terrible day. And ever so briefly I felt that anger and frustration being levelled at me with that brief and awful look in his eyes. (From the Leavenworth Memoirs by former President Lyndon B. Johnson)
President Johnson tried to push the incident out of his mind. Robert was understandably grief stricken for his older brother and concerned for members of his family at Hyannis Port. A marine helicopter had been sent to airlift them to a safe area, but as of yet no word had been received if they were all right.
The war was still going on. Several Soviet missile submarines were unaccounted for and might still be able to launch an attack at the country. Johnson had already ordered a second strike against surviving Russian and Warsaw Pact military assets. Where possible population centers would be spared but many of those bases were near cities. There was simply no way to avoid civilian casualties when one was fighting with nuclear weapons.
A message had been sent in the clear over radio to whatever leadership in the Soviet Union still survived and to members of the Warsaw Pact requesting a meeting by radio or telephone. So far, no one was answering. Analysts suspected that most of the ranking Soviet leadership was dead. Most of their command and control bunkers were known to the U.S. and its allies. Many of those bunkers had been targets of the first and second strikes. If there was any leadership military or civilian left alive it was likely very low on the totem pole.
Johnson had received word from U-Thant who was now in route on a specially chartered jet to Geneva, Switzerland along with survivors and staff of the United Nations. To be sure air travel was dangerous but the leader of the U.N felt it was imperative that he and his staff begin work on reestablishing that organization as soon as possible. The jet had a U.S. fighter escort that would stay with it as far as the Swiss air space. During the flight U-Thant had heard from the Chinese. Evidently the North Koreans were preparing to take advantage of the chaos and launch an attack on South Korea within the next day or so.
In Europe Johnson had lost contact with any personnel from NATO. His military analysts were still trying to find out and raise whoever was now in charge of NATO forces. What limited intelligence was going on indicated that Soviet and Warsaw Pact forces were now in a state of total disarray as their command structure disintegrated. Some were still fighting but others were retreating back to their home countries, or what was left of them.
In this country Johnson knew he was facing the worse disaster either man-made or natural that any President had faced ever. Preliminary estimates had the death toll at least at 5 million. And that was a conservative early estimate. It was likely the toll would climb much higher as the days and weeks passed. The very infrastructure of the U.S. had been badly damaged and there was no telling how long or how expensive the rebuilding would be. The nation most Americans had known when they had gone to bed a week ago was gone forever. It was time to face a new and very harsh reality.
For Johnson it was very clear drastic measure would be needed if the U.S. was to recover. He recalled Truman’s saying, “The buck stops here.” That was so true now. He had to be the one now to begin the slow process of recovery and rebuilding. He knew the measures he took would not be popular, but he would let history decide whether his decisions were right or wrong. For now a wounded nation needed to be put back together.