Visigoths Take Africa?

IOTL, Alaric was preparing to cross into Africa with the Visigoths when a storm wrecked their fleet. He died shortly after.

But what if there is no storm? Could the Visigoths have taken Africa? What effect would this have on the Empire, which was dealing with the invasion of the Alans, Vandals and Suevi in Gaul, as well as the usurpation of Constantine III, who was based in Arles?

I did a quick search on the forums, and found that this hasn't been discussed before as far as I can tell. I'm surprised, considering the amount of late Roman PODs around...

My quick thoughts:

- Alaric could probably take Africa.
- He would probably withold grain from Rome to force Honorius to grant him a senior military post, which was his lifelong ambition.
- Rome will be devastated and I expect Constantine III will become emperor rather quickly. I have no idea how effective he would be, but I doubt he would be as good as Constantius III...
- At any rate, this would be a devastating blow to the empire, surely hastening it's collapse.
- The Eastern Empire will probably be coming to the West's rescue, although they might be too busy with the Huns...

Well, those are my ideas. I'm probably wrong. What does everyone else think of this scenario?
 
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IOTL, Alaric was preparing to cross into Africa with the Visigoths when a storm wrecked their fleet. He died shortly after.

But what if there is no storm? Could the Visigoths have taken Africa? What effect would this have on the Empire, which was dealing with the invasion of the Alans, Vandals and Suevi in Gaul, as well as the usurpation of Constantine III, who was based in Arles?

I did a quick search on the forums, and found that this hasn't been discussed before as far as I can tell. I'm surprised, considering the amount of late Roman PODs around...

My quick thoughts:

- Alaric could probably take Africa.
- He would probably withold grain from Rome to force Honorius to grant him a senior military post, which was his lifelong ambition.
- Rome will be devastated and I expect Constantine III will become emperor rather quickly. I have no idea how effective he would be...
- At any rate, this would be a devastating blow to the empire, surely hastening it's collapse.
- The Eastern Empire will probably be coming to the West's rescue, although they might be too busy with the Huns...

Well, those are my ideas. I'm probably very wrong. What does everyone else think of this scenario?
That all sounds about right. I am thinking about having the Visigoths take Africa and the Vandals establish a kingdom in Iberia for my timeline (in my sig). I would really like to hear the opinions of other board members.
 
That all sounds about right. I am thinking about having the Visigoths take Africa and the Vandals establish a kingdom in Iberia for my timeline (in my sig). I would really like to hear the opinions of other board members

The opposite of OTL, then? Interesting...

Any other thoughts about Alaric in Africa?
 
The opposite of OTL, then? Interesting...

Any other thoughts about Alaric in Africa?

The West is going down fast. Once Africa goes even if the ruler of Africa is totally in support of the West (and that's unlikely, just because they're not the same person) the West is hanging on by a thread, and when the rest of the barbs come in I don't think it will have the strength to even put up the pathetic show it did IOTL.

That said the East is totally fine, as usual.
 
IOTL, Alaric was preparing to cross into Africa with the Visigoths when a storm wrecked their fleet. He died shortly after.

But what if there is no storm? Could the Visigoths have taken Africa? What effect would this have on the Empire, which was dealing with the invasion of the Alans, Vandals and Suevi in Gaul, as well as the usurpation of Constantine III, who was based in Arles?

I did a quick search on the forums, and found that this hasn't been discussed before as far as I can tell. I'm surprised, considering the amount of late Roman PODs around...

My quick thoughts:

- Alaric could probably take Africa.
- He would probably withold grain from Rome to force Honorius to grant him a senior military post, which was his lifelong ambition.
- Rome will be devastated and I expect Constantine III will become emperor rather quickly. I have no idea how effective he would be, but I doubt he would be as good as Constantius III...
- At any rate, this would be a devastating blow to the empire, surely hastening it's collapse.
- The Eastern Empire will probably be coming to the West's rescue, although they might be too busy with the Huns...

Well, those are my ideas. I'm probably wrong. What does everyone else think of this scenario?

Well the way I see it, if you take it as given in that Alaric pulls off the conquest of Africa, you have two options:
(1) Honorius* negotiates with Alaric who finally has something that he can't live without (well a good ideological symbol Rome was more trouble than it was worth to the troubled Western Emperors of the 5th century). Alaric is given a military command, his position in Africa is legitimised (through the 'federate' system -like what happened OTL in Aquitaine) and the Visigoths led some soldiers (but probably not enough) to help put the Vandals and Alans in Spain.
(2) Honorius* doesn't negotiate with Alaric, and the Visigoths assumes the positions Vandals did in the later part of OTL 5th century: pirates raiding Mediterranean shipping as well as the coasts of Italy, Greece and Sicily. This move will divisively weaken the Western Empire, and lead to a series of single-minded brutal struggles to get Africa back at whatever cost (toss up whether they are successful).
(3) Honorius organizes a joint East-West assault and knocks out Alaric. Which still leaves the problem: what to do with all the Goths? Probably they will be settled as federates in North Africa to guard against the Berbers and the rebellious African citizenry (who are championing a rather heretical and anti-imperial form of Christianity at the moment). Although not sure the East is strong enough for this yet, so (3) might to wait for a while.

Well I say Honorius but really Honorius was just a puppet for whichever court faction was in charge that week. The whole mess that was palace politics finally stabilized under Constantius around the time we are discussing, and if it all goes like OTL then he would be the one making the decisions at this point. Now OTL Constantius was more or less willing to ally with the Goths (and he proved a rather faithful ally), so I think option (1) is the most likely (especially if Alaric gives up Honorius' sister who he pilfered from Rome -although he might keep her as his second-command had taken quite a shine to her).

Don't put too much faith in the humble soldier with the popular name. By this stage Constantine III is pretty much a spent force, his real problem was that he was betrayed and stabbed in the back by one of his most component generals when he passed the man up to promote his son over him. Half the Gauls have fallen out of love with him by now and Spain is in full revolt (in more ways than one since Iberia has just been invaded by the Alans and the Vandals fresh from their savageries in Gaul). The way I see it Constantius still knocks Constantine down, although without Visigoth muscle I think his situation in Gaul and Spain will be more perilous than OTL.

As to Alaric and his successors, if he does stay loyal to the regime, it will be only so long as the regime is good to them. As soon as their position looks strong enough, the Visigoths will be all over the Mediterranean raiding and conquering.
 
Honorius* negotiates with Alaric who finally has something that he can't live without (well a good ideological symbol Rome was more trouble than it was worth to the troubled Western Emperors of the 5th century). Alaric is given a military command, his position in Africa is legitimised (through the 'federate' system -like what happened OTL in Aquitaine) and the Visigoths led some soldiers (but probably not enough) to help put the Vandals and Alans in Spain.


Wouldn't the Alan/Vandal/Suevi have been in Spain already?

I think this is a very interesting scenario, and definately worthy of being made into a TL. Some more quick thoughts/questions:

-Where will the Visigoths be landing in Africa and how many ships will they need? I know a Roman invasion against the Vandals in 468 landed near Cape Bon and was made up of 1100 ships, which carried about 30,000 soldiers. 30,000 was approximately the size of Alaric's army IIRC...

-Without Visigothic aid in stabilizing Gaul, might we see the Franks and Burgundians invading sooner?

-How severely hit will the Western Empire be by the loss of Africa (presumably less so than OTL, since Alaric is probably at least friendly to the Empire)

-Basically, the Western Empire now consists of Italy, Illyria, Sicily and parts of Gaul. And the Huns are on their way...
 
Performing one last bump. I've started working on this TL and have ideas until about 420, but I want to see if there are any more opinions...
 
Back on topic though:

Jovinus was rebelling in Gaul at this point with the support of the Burgundians and a faction of Alans. In OTL, he was defeated by Ataulf. But since the Visigoths are far away in Africa, might he be more successful in TTL? How will the Burgundians and other barbarians take advantage of this situation?
 
Back on topic though:

Jovinus was rebelling in Gaul at this point with the support of the Burgundians and a faction of Alans. In OTL, he was defeated by Ataulf. But since the Visigoths are far away in Africa, might he be more successful in TTL? How will the Burgundians and other barbarians take advantage of this situation?
To tell you the truth, I have no clue. My guess is that they would be, but then again I am really not very qualified to talk. Looking forward to reading your timeline.
 
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