Visconti unites Italy - what happens next?

P.S., the Iron Crown of Lombardy was mostly made of gold and jewels like other crowns. However it had an inner band of iron made from one of the nails used to hold Christ on the cross. Or at least, the Lombards said that's where it came from.

IS mostly made of gold and jewels. It's still around.
 
I put together a (relatively) quick map to illustrate the borders of the state I had in mind here. There are a number of deviations from what I said in an earlier post. This is because I studied up on Gian Galeazzo's territorial acquisitions when I made this map.

The territories shown as part of Milan directly were those Gian Galeazzo inherited when he became duke of Milan, and most of those territories also remained part of Milan for a long time after the Visconti line died out. The rest are (mostly) Gian Galeazzo's OTL conquests, but with a few notable additions like Florence.

The year specified is arbitrary. I just happen to like the year 1419 because it's the starting year in Europa Universalis 2. :p

MN4VYBH.png


Will probably refine it further later on, but since the borders are the important part here, I figured the map was sufficiently finished for this thread.
 
My guess is a revived Italian kingdom would try to ally with France, since Austria and Spain would be natural enemies.

Regarding the colonial game, Italy has one big disadvantage. They lack Atlantic access.
All three would be natural enemies, as an united Italy is not in the best interest of any of them. Italy might have to be somewhat politically flexible if it wants to survive.


I'd say Barbary pirates would be a bigger issue than the extra sailing distance alone, but yeah; it wouldn't exactly be very lucrative for them.

Investing in Portuguese and/or Spanish exploration like Florence did OTL would probably be the maximum extent of their involvement.

A twofold process may be needed.
If the Visconti end up as the HRE's Vicar/Governor/Regent for Italy it would make it easier for said Regent to gain the crown later; providing he accepts imperial overlordship of course.
That title traditionally belongs to the Archbishop of Cologne. I doubt the Elector Princes would take kindly to the Emperor arbitrarily stripping one of them of one of their titles.

Sure wouldn't hurt Visconti's ambitions though.

Something I didn't know.

The scenario I suggested about almost happened. The King of the Romans in question was Rupert of the Palatinate. His failure came against Gian Galeazzo Visconti, but in OTL Rupert wasn't captured.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rupert_of_Germany

P.S., the Iron Crown of Lombardy was mostly made of gold and jewels like other crowns. However it had an inner band of iron made from one of the nails used to hold Christ on the cross. Or at least, the Lombards said that's where it came from.
Rupert was German Anti-King though. Wouldn't the Iron Crown be in Emperor Wenceslaus' possession around then?
 
On Charles's death in 1378, Wenceslaus inherited Bohemia and as Emperor-elect assumed the government of the Holy Roman Empire. In the cathedral of Monza there is preserved a series of reliefs depicting the coronations of the kings of Italy with the Iron Crown of Lombardy. The seventh of these depicts Wenceslaus being crowned in the presence of six electors, he himself being the seventh. The depiction is probably not accurate and was likely made solely to reinforce the claims of the cathedral on the custody of the Iron Crown.




From wiki, for what that's worth.


So unless Wenceslaus has been crowned (and the article on him doesn't mention it), it would be in the hands of the cathedral, technically. Although that leaves the question of what Wenceslaus did - it is one of the titles he's entitled to, even if not all of the German Kings (he wasn't crowned as Emperor either if we're being technical) were crowned.
 
I put together a (relatively) quick map to illustrate the borders of the state I had in mind here...
You can add Bologna to the pile as well, IIRC Gian Galeazzo had just crushed their army and captured the city before planning to move on to their ally Florence when he died. I'd also suggest that if he's re-captured Padua, which he only held for a couple of years and lost in 1390, and also taken Mantua, which in our timeline he never seems to have achieved, that Modena and Ferrara seem like the most obvious targets to round out the collection. Might be better off trading Padua away to Venice in return for settled relations, if they feel he's pushing in and threatening their Terraferma possessions they might start helping to fund his opponents.
 
All three would be natural enemies, as an united Italy is not in the best interest of any of them. Italy might have to be somewhat politically flexible if it wants to survive.

* * *

Rupert was German Anti-King though. Wouldn't the Iron Crown be in Emperor Wenceslaus' possession around then?

1. The Luxemburg dynasty was usually on excellent terms with France. John the Blind died on the French side at Crecy, and his son Charles IV was brought up in the French court. In fact his original name was Wenceslas but he changed it in honor of his uncle, Charles IV of France.

2. The Wikipedia article says that the Iron Crown was kept at the Cathedral of Monza outside Milan, which makes it easily accessible to an ambitious Visconti. [Not sure where it is now].

3. You don't have to use Rupert's expedition as the POD; I meant it as an illustration that the capture of a king of the Romans was plausible. I don't know if Rupert is now thought of as the true king of the Romans, or who makes that determination. For what it's worth, Sigismund was elected King of the Romans after Rupert died, rather than simply relying on eventually inheriting his still-living brother's title.

Sigismund's election was disputed, too. That means that there's yet another candidate (Jobst of Moravia, another member of the Luxemburg family) available to fail in North Italy.
 
I've attached a map (from Wikipedia, but...) detailing the maximum extent of Viscontean possessions in Italy at the death of Gian Galeazzo (1402). There should be something more to the south (Nocera and Spoleto went to GG in 1401, at the same time as Perugia and Assisi).
If GG survives the brush with the plague (or the poison), Firenze is also taken.
I suppose that the next step will be consolidation of the domains: GG had already started a full review and improvement of the taxation in his widespread possessions and his army of bureaucrats was claimed to be the most efficient in Europe.
There is not much external players can do at this particular point in time: the HRE is in a quite parlous state, and Milanese forces have already put paid to any ambition of Rupert of Bavaria to get crowned in Rome (battle of Brescia, 1401). From a legal point of view, GG has a legitimate position since Wenceslaus invested him with the duchy of Milan (1395) and the duchy of Lombardy (1397), not to mention that the same GG was also appointed as Imperial Vicar in the 1380s. The papacy is in a worse state than the HRE: the Great Western Schism is in full blowm and there are two popes, one in Rome and the other in Avignon. The king of France is in reasonably good relations with GG (which did not prevent his participation in a florentine-sponsored league against GG in 1395). Anyway the 100 years war is starting again, and France will have other problems much more pressing to deal with. Aragon is embroilered in the succession war in Naples, and in any case there is not much they can do. It looks like that GG (who is just 51 years old in 1402) may enjoy a very nice window of opportunity: give him 10-15 more years (which is not unreasonable) and the patchwork of Viscontean possessions can be possibly forged into a credible state. Note that GG is not a military man: barring a single (and unlucky) experience in his youth, he never led an army. He is a political animal (a gifted one), with a very few scruples (if any) and very deep pockets.
His next objectives should be Genoa (as soon as the French are in trouble he can take the city) and Mantua. The church schism and the succession war in Naples are both very nice opportunities to play the great game. He's not going to get a royal crown (most likely at least), but if he plays his cards well he may get his supremacy in Italy sanctioned by both the emperor and the church. The real problem may be with the succession: the Viscontis traditionally partitioned their possessions between all their male sons (and GG will in 1402 was drafted accordingly). However the extent of his success might help him to look to a different way of doing things. The other problem is that neither of his legitimate sons was a paragon of statemanship and intelligence; again, the 10-15 extra years he gets might be also used to polish up his heir.

Max Extension of Visconti possessions in 1402.png
 
I kind of let my thread die, didn't I? I wanted to redo and update my map before posting again, but somehow never got around to it until now.

You can add Bologna to the pile as well, IIRC Gian Galeazzo had just crushed their army and captured the city before planning to move on to their ally Florence when he died. I'd also suggest that if he's re-captured Padua, which he only held for a couple of years and lost in 1390, and also taken Mantua, which in our timeline he never seems to have achieved, that Modena and Ferrara seem like the most obvious targets to round out the collection. Might be better off trading Padua away to Venice in return for settled relations, if they feel he's pushing in and threatening their Terraferma possessions they might start helping to fund his opponents.
All good points. I updated my map accordingly.

I've attached a map (from Wikipedia, but...) detailing the maximum extent of Viscontean possessions in Italy at the death of Gian Galeazzo (1402). There should be something more to the south (Nocera and Spoleto went to GG in 1401, at the same time as Perugia and Assisi).
If GG survives the brush with the plague (or the poison), Firenze is also taken.
I suppose that the next step will be consolidation of the domains: GG had already started a full review and improvement of the taxation in his widespread possessions and his army of bureaucrats was claimed to be the most efficient in Europe.
There is not much external players can do at this particular point in time: the HRE is in a quite parlous state, and Milanese forces have already put paid to any ambition of Rupert of Bavaria to get crowned in Rome (battle of Brescia, 1401). From a legal point of view, GG has a legitimate position since Wenceslaus invested him with the duchy of Milan (1395) and the duchy of Lombardy (1397), not to mention that the same GG was also appointed as Imperial Vicar in the 1380s. The papacy is in a worse state than the HRE: the Great Western Schism is in full blowm and there are two popes, one in Rome and the other in Avignon. The king of France is in reasonably good relations with GG (which did not prevent his participation in a florentine-sponsored league against GG in 1395). Anyway the 100 years war is starting again, and France will have other problems much more pressing to deal with. Aragon is embroilered in the succession war in Naples, and in any case there is not much they can do. It looks like that GG (who is just 51 years old in 1402) may enjoy a very nice window of opportunity: give him 10-15 more years (which is not unreasonable) and the patchwork of Viscontean possessions can be possibly forged into a credible state. Note that GG is not a military man: barring a single (and unlucky) experience in his youth, he never led an army. He is a political animal (a gifted one), with a very few scruples (if any) and very deep pockets.
His next objectives should be Genoa (as soon as the French are in trouble he can take the city) and Mantua. The church schism and the succession war in Naples are both very nice opportunities to play the great game. He's not going to get a royal crown (most likely at least), but if he plays his cards well he may get his supremacy in Italy sanctioned by both the emperor and the church. The real problem may be with the succession: the Viscontis traditionally partitioned their possessions between all their male sons (and GG will in 1402 was drafted accordingly). However the extent of his success might help him to look to a different way of doing things. The other problem is that neither of his legitimate sons was a paragon of statemanship and intelligence; again, the 10-15 extra years he gets might be also used to polish up his heir.
Thank you for the detailed feedback. The map you attached is the one I used as the base for my map, but I felt that the way it was drawn made it look kind of untidy.

It sounds like it wouldn't be too difficult for GG to form a North Italian "state" after all. The only thing that's somewhat implausible is that the Visconti domains remain united after GG's death, but even that at least sounds possible from what you've told me.


In any case, here's the updated map. Provided they manage to keep it all together, we're talking about a potentially very wealthy and prosperous state. Italy still risks becoming a battlefield in the future, but it should remain in a very favourable position provided it manages to stay united.

Visconti's Italy.png
 
By 1415 a successful (and surviving) GG should have been able to include in his domains also the Marche (ie the domains of Da Polenta, Montefeltro and other minor lords on the Adriatic coast) and Spoleto: I'd assume this happens by negotiation and a minimum use of force.

The difficulty would be getting Ferrara/Modena and Mantua since these are imperial fiefs (Genoa is much easier and can be taken by subversion): from your map it looks like that GG's pockets were deep enough to buy his way around.
How would be GG styled in your opinion by 1415? I can see 4 main possibilities: duke of Milan, duke of Lombardy, king of Lombardy or king of Italy; my money would be on king of Lombardy.

The other interesting point in your map is that Padova is not in Visconti hands. I doubt very much that Padova might retain independence: it would be a very smart move if GG gave it to Venice maybe at the time he takes Ferrara [IMO Milan and Venice are natural allies).

This said, I strongly believe that 15 years should be enough to forge a unitary state and to prepare a smooth succession. It should also be enough to train a reasonably able heir.

Note that the 1410s should be quite a critical time if the Great Schism has to end somehow.
 
By 1415 a successful (and surviving) GG should have been able to include in his domains also the Marche (ie the domains of Da Polenta, Montefeltro and other minor lords on the Adriatic coast) and Spoleto: I'd assume this happens by negotiation and a minimum use of force.
Weren't these considered a part of the Papal States? I know the Church is in trouble but I doubt either side would be very happy to see someone making off with their land. I'm just not sure what Gian could offer that would make them look the other way over it.


The difficulty would be getting Ferrara/Modena and Mantua since these are imperial fiefs (Genoa is much easier and can be taken by subversion): from your map it looks like that GG's pockets were deep enough to buy his way around.
Throw enough cash the Emperor's way and I think he should be okay with things. Italy's away from the centre of the Empire in Germany and it's always been a pain in the arse, a semi-friendly Duke down there could actually be a bonus.


How would be GG styled in your opinion by 1415? I can see 4 main possibilities: duke of Milan, duke of Lombardy, king of Lombardy or king of Italy; my money would be on king of Lombardy.
Definitely won't be King of Lombardy since that was a subsidiary title that the Holy Roman Emperor held as well as the Imperial crown IIRC, plus aside from Bohemia they didn't allow kings in the Empire. Duke of Lombardy along with King of Italy is rather ambitious and a glaring advert for his ambitions to take over the whole peninsula, which is the kind of thing to make his neighbours nervous and start banding together against him. Personally I'd say do a Habsburg with Duke of Milan as the main title he's known by and then the others as follow on ones e.g. Duke of Milan, Duke of Modena, Lord of Ravenna and so on.


The other interesting point in your map is that Padova is not in Visconti hands. I doubt very much that Padova might retain independence: it would be a very smart move if GG gave it to Venice maybe at the time he takes Ferrara [IMO Milan and Venice are natural allies).
I'll second this again for trading Padua to Venice to buy them off and gain friendly relations. Once Gian has gained the acceptance of the Emperor and firmly settle himself in Venice will make a useful ally against any Imperial attempts to try and change things at a later date. Fifteen years or so should be enough, although look at Cesare Borgia and his attempts to carve out a state in Romagna and how that went once dad was dead. The main thing is to leave it all to the eldest son and not mess about with diving the lands among his kids, that alone should improve things. Getting on the right side of the Curia and Cardinal Colonna would also be a good idea.
 
By 1415 a successful (and surviving) GG should have been able to include in his domains also the Marche (ie the domains of Da Polenta, Montefeltro and other minor lords on the Adriatic coast) and Spoleto: I'd assume this happens by negotiation and a minimum use of force.
Hm, perhaps. Do you know if he had ambitions in the Papal Marches OTL?

The difficulty would be getting Ferrara/Modena and Mantua since these are imperial fiefs (Genoa is much easier and can be taken by subversion): from your map it looks like that GG's pockets were deep enough to buy his way around.
Aye, that was the idea.

How would be GG styled in your opinion by 1415? I can see 4 main possibilities: duke of Milan, duke of Lombardy, king of Lombardy or king of Italy; my money would be on king of Lombardy.
What Simon said. Even if he *did* decide to style himself that, it would be a bit meaningless given that no-one crowned him that. We could perhaps go with the scenario spoken of earlier in the thread where GG more or less forces his crowning, but I'm not sure it would be worth it. The Emperor may not be much of a threat in GG's lifetime, but usurping one of the central titles of the HRE probably isn't going to go down well with anyone who isn't GG.


The other interesting point in your map is that Padova is not in Visconti hands. I doubt very much that Padova might retain independence: it would be a very smart move if GG gave it to Venice maybe at the time he takes Ferrara [IMO Milan and Venice are natural allies).
Aye, Simon brought that up earlier in the thread, and I took it into account on the map. The idea was for GG to buy Venetian friendship or maybe just neutrality with Padua etc.

How are they natural allies by the way? Given how Venice positioned itself against Filippo Maria Visconti OTL, I always got the impression Venice was a natural enemy of Milan rather than an ally.

This said, I strongly believe that 15 years should be enough to forge a unitary state and to prepare a smooth succession. It should also be enough to train a reasonably able heir.
The scenario wouldn't be interesting otherwise, so let's assume he does.

Note that the 1410s should be quite a critical time if the Great Schism has to end somehow.
Aye, though perhaps it could even be prolonged depending on how GG positions himself. That would make for a potentially interesting scenario too.
 
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I've been busy over the last few days, but finally I got some spare time and will try to address the different issues under discussions.

Expansion in Romagna and the Marches of Ancona
At the end of the 15th century there were 3 major feudal holdings in the region: the Da Polenta (lords of Ravenna and Cervia) and supporters of the Este lords in Ferrara; the Montefeltro (lords of Urbino and Senigaglia) and the Malatesta (lords of Rimini and Fano and long-standing allies of the Visconti). Additionally there is the free commune of Ancona, with a significant role to play in the eastern trade and traditional alliances with Ragusa and the Byzantines.
IMHO the Da Polenta domains should fall to GG at the same time he takes Ferrara. The southern Romagna and the Marches of Ancona (to use the old Carolingian definition) should also enter the Viscontean orbit, either by direct annexation or supporting the Malatesta in their centuries-old feud against the Montefeltro.
From a legalistic point of view, Romagna should be part of the Patrimonium Petri (but not the Marches of Ancona). However the grasp of the popes on the region became greatly diminished during the 13th and the 14th centuries, and even the restoration of the papal rights enforced by Cardinal Albornoz around the idle of the 14th century was quite short lived: by 1375 all the cities and feudal lordships of Romagna and Umbria had rebelled and were effectively independent.
GG took Perugia in 1399, and Assisi, Gualdo, Nocera and Spoleto fell in his hands soon after; by 1402 he had not only completed the encirclement of Florence, but also controlled all the roads from Latium to the Adriatic. It is hard to imagine who could really oppose him in the region once Florence has submitted.

GG's title in 1415
I think I've to agree with your position: GG will be the duke of Milan (by Imperial investiture granted in 1395) and the heir to the duchy would be styled Count of Pavia (again by Imperial investiture). The royal crown will come further down the line, if the Visconti state holds and prospers. If and when there is a solution to the Great Schism GG (or his heir) can wrangle out of the settlement the ducal title od Spoleto (which is lapsed as an imperial title since when Mathilda of Canossa granted the duchy to the Holy See on her death, but might be resurrected by the pope). The possibility of a papal formal investiture as lord of the Romagna cities could also be possible (maybe with another ducal title). There are a lot of possibilities here.

Relations with Venice
OTL Venice took the opportunity of the sudden death of GG (and the weak succession thereof) to try and gorge on the carcass of the Visconti holding. IMHO it was the wrong choice: Venice became embroiled in the Italian wars for the next 50 years and never managed to fulfill her ambition to take Milan (worse a lot of precious resources were wasted in the wars at a time when the Ottomans were expanding in areas much more critical for Venetian commercial interests).

ITTL the lure of the sudden death of GG would not come up, and Venice should remain more focused on the management of the Stato da Mar and the protection of their commercial interests in the Levant.

From the viewpoint of GG, he has a real chance to take Venice, once he has secured his hold on Genoa and has taken Ravenna and Ancona as naval bases.
OTOH, the Viscontis control the Po river, Mantua, Verona (and the road to the Brenner pass) as well as the roads to the Sempione and San Gottardo passes.
Since all the overland traffic to and from Venice is effectively producing revenues for him why should he ran the risk to kill the goose which lays the golden eggs?

Maybe I am over-rationalizing, but my belief is that Venice and Milan are natural allies and not enemies.
 
My apologies for yet another slow reply. I was on vacation for the last couple of weeks and didn't have the time to sit down and write up a proper response. :)

Expansion in Romagna and the Marches of Ancona
At the end of the 15th century there were 3 major feudal holdings in the region: the Da Polenta (lords of Ravenna and Cervia) and supporters of the Este lords in Ferrara; the Montefeltro (lords of Urbino and Senigaglia) and the Malatesta (lords of Rimini and Fano and long-standing allies of the Visconti). Additionally there is the free commune of Ancona, with a significant role to play in the eastern trade and traditional alliances with Ragusa and the Byzantines.
IMHO the Da Polenta domains should fall to GG at the same time he takes Ferrara. The southern Romagna and the Marches of Ancona (to use the old Carolingian definition) should also enter the Viscontean orbit, either by direct annexation or supporting the Malatesta in their centuries-old feud against the Montefeltro.
From a legalistic point of view, Romagna should be part of the Patrimonium Petri (but not the Marches of Ancona). However the grasp of the popes on the region became greatly diminished during the 13th and the 14th centuries, and even the restoration of the papal rights enforced by Cardinal Albornoz around the idle of the 14th century was quite short lived: by 1375 all the cities and feudal lordships of Romagna and Umbria had rebelled and were effectively independent.
GG took Perugia in 1399, and Assisi, Gualdo, Nocera and Spoleto fell in his hands soon after; by 1402 he had not only completed the encirclement of Florence, but also controlled all the roads from Latium to the Adriatic. It is hard to imagine who could really oppose him in the region once Florence has submitted.
Hmm, that makes sense I suppose. That said, even if Florence submits, that does not remove Florence (and the other larger than average states) as a potential threat. In GG's shoes, I'm not sure I'd feel safe extending my rule down there so soon after capturing so many other major territories. (He does have 13-15 years to grab the rest though, so I guess it's not that great an issue)

That only applies to the unaffiliated ones though. I wasn't aware of the politics in the area at the time, and it does indeed sound like it would make sense for some of those territories to fall to GG indirectly after beating down their allies or helping them against their foes.

Shame that the basemap I used (the same you posted earlier in the thread) doesn't show that part of Italy in any real detail though. If I don't find a better one, there's only a few I'll be able to label accurately.

GG's title in 1415
I think I've to agree with your position: GG will be the duke of Milan (by Imperial investiture granted in 1395) and the heir to the duchy would be styled Count of Pavia (again by Imperial investiture). The royal crown will come further down the line, if the Visconti state holds and prospers. If and when there is a solution to the Great Schism GG (or his heir) can wrangle out of the settlement the ducal title od Spoleto (which is lapsed as an imperial title since when Mathilda of Canossa granted the duchy to the Holy See on her death, but might be resurrected by the pope). The possibility of a papal formal investiture as lord of the Romagna cities could also be possible (maybe with another ducal title). There are a lot of possibilities here.
Resurrecting the old ducal title of Tuscany might also be a possibility at some point.

A crown is not guaranteed even if the Visconti state remains stable, but it's certainly a possibility if the political climate of Europe allows it, aye. Would it be a Guelph or a Ghibelline crown though? It's kind of troublesome when both of the men who could grant you a crown happen to have reasons to be hostile towards you. I could even see the Pope resort to talking about a "new Lombard threat" and allying with the Emperor against the Visconti further down the line.


Relations with Venice
OTL Venice took the opportunity of the sudden death of GG (and the weak succession thereof) to try and gorge on the carcass of the Visconti holding. IMHO it was the wrong choice: Venice became embroiled in the Italian wars for the next 50 years and never managed to fulfill her ambition to take Milan (worse a lot of precious resources were wasted in the wars at a time when the Ottomans were expanding in areas much more critical for Venetian commercial interests).

ITTL the lure of the sudden death of GG would not come up, and Venice should remain more focused on the management of the Stato da Mar and the protection of their commercial interests in the Levant.

From the viewpoint of GG, he has a real chance to take Venice, once he has secured his hold on Genoa and has taken Ravenna and Ancona as naval bases.
OTOH, the Viscontis control the Po river, Mantua, Verona (and the road to the Brenner pass) as well as the roads to the Sempione and San Gottardo passes.
Since all the overland traffic to and from Venice is effectively producing revenues for him why should he ran the risk to kill the goose which lays the golden eggs?

Maybe I am over-rationalizing, but my belief is that Venice and Milan are natural allies and not enemies.
Hm, so they're natural allies for economical reasons rather than purely political and/or military ones? I suppose that makes some sense from Venice's viewpoint, at least. Wouldn't GG, or another Visconti in the future, see Venice as a valuable city to own rather than to trade with though? Or would they realize that even if they do capture the city, they might risk shattering or at the very least redirecting Venice's old trade network? I am not sure how far your average (or not so average) Italian nobleman thought ahead in terms of trade and economic power at the time, so I'm not sure.


Speaking of politics, would GG or a future Visconti be interested in expanding into Naples? I could see the Visconti do what Filippo Maria Visconti did OTL and agree on a north/south split of Italy with the northern part going to them and the southern part going to Aragon, but if memory serves that agreement only came around as the result of a series of rather unlikely events. The Visconti would certainly have reason to dislike the idea of entrenched French influence in the area, but I am not sure if they would see Aragon as a much better option. Conquering it themselves seems like it would be difficult though.
 
One possible ally for Italy is Poland-Hungary ruled by Louis I of Poland and Hungary, they could distract Bohemia while the Viscontis are busy uniting Northern Italy...
 
Instead of a royal crown from a kingdom (nominally) within the Holy Roman Empire, the house of Viconti probably has a better chance gaining kingdoms such as Sardinia (and Corsica), Sicily (Trinacria (Insular Sicily)) or Naples ((Peninsular) Sicily).

Between 1410-1412 there was a succession crisis in the Crown of Aragon, which ended with the Aragonese Crown going to a cadet branch of the house of Trastamara. At the time Sardinia was a part of the Crown of Aragon and Sicily (Trinacria) was in personal union with the Crown of Aragon.

Trinacria was quite valuable, but a dispute regarding Sardinia might be possible to solve by a treaty (the ruler or Visconti heir will marry a (younger) Aragonese princess).

The succession to Naples was in 1421 granted to Alfonso of Aragon by the childless Joanna II of Naples. So (depending on the PoD) if the house of Visconti would be willing to fully support Joanna II, then they could be named as her heirs.
 
One possible ally for Italy is Poland-Hungary ruled by Louis I of Poland and Hungary, they could distract Bohemia while the Viscontis are busy uniting Northern Italy...
Louis I was already (relatively) long dead by the time of the PoD. It's true that both Poland and Hungary could become potential allies of Visconti Milan in the future though.

Instead of a royal crown from a kingdom (nominally) within the Holy Roman Empire, the house of Viconti probably has a better chance gaining kingdoms such as Sardinia (and Corsica), Sicily (Trinacria (Insular Sicily)) or Naples ((Peninsular) Sicily).

Between 1410-1412 there was a succession crisis in the Crown of Aragon, which ended with the Aragonese Crown going to a cadet branch of the house of Trastamara. At the time Sardinia was a part of the Crown of Aragon and Sicily (Trinacria) was in personal union with the Crown of Aragon.

Trinacria was quite valuable, but a dispute regarding Sardinia might be possible to solve by a treaty (the ruler or Visconti heir will marry a (younger) Aragonese princess).

The succession to Naples was in 1421 granted to Alfonso of Aragon by the childless Joanna II of Naples. So (depending on the PoD) if the house of Visconti would be willing to fully support Joanna II, then they could be named as her heirs.
Yes, it does seem like it would be easier to gain one of the "lesser" crowns of Italy rather than the Iron Crown itself. Less likely to offend the wrong people.

I like the idea of adding a third player to the conflict in Naples. It was quite a mess already with just two candidates, and perhaps resolving the conflict in favour of the Milanese candidate early would discourage a potential French invasion in the future. Wouldn't eliminate the Angevin claims though, so who knows.
 
Hmm, that makes sense I suppose. That said, even if Florence submits, that does not remove Florence (and the other larger than average states) as a potential threat. In GG's shoes, I'm not sure I'd feel safe extending my rule down there so soon after capturing so many other major territories. (He does have 13-15 years to grab the rest though, so I guess it's not that great an issue)

That only applies to the unaffiliated ones though. I wasn't aware of the politics in the area at the time, and it does indeed sound like it would make sense for some of those territories to fall to GG indirectly after beating down their allies or helping them against their foes.

Shame that the basemap I used (the same you posted earlier in the thread) doesn't show that part of Italy in any real detail though. If I don't find a better one, there's only a few I'll be able to label accurately.
After the Florentine surrender, there will be a podesta' appointed by GG as highest office holder in Florence, and a Milanese garrison. That should be enough to keep the Florentines to their side of the bargain. Not to mention the positive hate of the other Tuscan cities (with Pisa and Siena in the frontline) for Florence.
On a more positive side, the central administration and the rationalization of taxes and duties which had been started by GG OTL (and should be completed by him ITTL) should be a big incentive for the merchant and banker class to play ball.
This would work also for the other cities too, obviously. AFAIK, the cities and towns grabbed by GG were never wrung dry, nor were excessive political reprisals allowed.
Asfar as the Marches of Ancona are concerned, I'm becoming more and more convinced that GG would use his old allies, the Malatestas, as viceroys, maybe even resurrecting the old Carolingian title of Wardens of the Marches of Ancona (but Ancona itself - as along standing free republic and the chief harbor on the Adriatic - would probably be ruleddirectly by him through a podesta;

Resurrecting the old ducal title of Tuscany might also be a possibility at some point.

A crown is not guaranteed even if the Visconti state remains stable, but it's certainly a possibility if the political climate of Europe allows it, aye. Would it be a Guelph or a Ghibelline crown though? It's kind of troublesome when both of the men who could grant you a crown happen to have reasons to be hostile towards you. I could even see the Pope resort to talking about a "new Lombard threat" and allying with the Emperor against the Visconti further down the line.

Which pope? at the moment there are two incumbents, one in Rome and one in Avignon, and if things do go on for a few years as per OTL there is a good chance a third one will be appointed too. Plenty of elbow room and opportunity for the wily GG. OTOH the emperor is in a penurious state and always in need of money. Which is another nice thing for the newly created (and very solvent) duke of Milan. My idea is that GG will negotiate/buy/extort whichever title will be available from both sides (and will play a major and well rewarded role in the composition of the schism). Remember that France will soon be embroiled in the 100 years war again, and the Aragonese will get into a dynastic squabble by 1410, as Janprimus pointed out: it would be difficult to paint a more favourable scenario for a surviving GG

Hm, so they're natural allies for economical reasons rather than purely political and/or military ones? I suppose that makes some sense from Venice's viewpoint, at least. Wouldn't GG, or another Visconti in the future, see Venice as a valuable city to own rather than to trade with though? Or would they realize that even if they do capture the city, they might risk shattering or at the very least redirecting Venice's old trade network? I am not sure how far your average (or not so average) Italian nobleman thought ahead in terms of trade and economic power at the time, so I'm not sure.
I am not saying they will be allied forever. I'm just pointing out that there are sound commercial reasons to cooperate and no real-life reason to be on opposite camps. In a couple of generations this may change, or maybe not. What I know is that both the Visconti and the Serenissima would benefit in a major way by cooperating with each other, and that GG is well above the average run-of-the-mill petty prince.

Speaking of politics, would GG or a future Visconti be interested in expanding into Naples? I could see the Visconti do what Filippo Maria Visconti did OTL and agree on a north/south split of Italy with the northern part going to them and the southern part going to Aragon, but if memory serves that agreement only came around as the result of a series of rather unlikely events. The Visconti would certainly have reason to dislike the idea of entrenched French influence in the area, but I am not sure if they would see Aragon as a much better option. Conquering it themselves seems like it would be difficult though.

Probably yes. Actually I should say most certainly.
GG still remembers when the Aragonese crown vetoed his marriage proposal to Maria of Sicily (and sent a fleet to harass the Pisan ship he had despatched to bring the queen to North Italy). Then there is the troubled times the kingdom of Naples is going to live in the next couple of decades, as well as the above mentioned Aragonese dynastic crisis.
A lot will depend on the settlement of the schism (the pope is still the formal overlord of the crowns of Naples and Sicily), and what GG can get out of the settlement.
It should be also mentioned that the Genoese mercantile interests would be very opposed to an Aragonese expansion in southern Italy (and IOTL Filippo Maria Visconti supported the intervention of Renee d'Anjou for this very reason).

Obviously ITTL GG would be in a much stronger position than his son was IOTL, and his strategy would be different. He might even push for his younger son (said Filippo Maria) to marry Joan of Naples (the bride would be quite older than the groom, but it has never been a major obstacle in dynastic marriages) which would unite the kingdom of Naples with the Viscontean holdings. Alternatively he might look for a fight against the Aragonese in the kingdom of Naples (mainly by subversion) and in Sardinia (leveraging on the old Visconti claim on the Judicate of Gallura, which came from the Pisan branch of the Visconti, as well as on the Genoese strongholds in Corsica and Northern Sardinia and supporting the still independent Judicate of Arborea). There could even be a royal crown in this, possibly even two. Note that Venice would certainly be happy to support naval operation against Puglia.
 
Instead of a royal crown from a kingdom (nominally) within the Holy Roman Empire, the house of Viconti probably has a better chance gaining kingdoms such as Sardinia (and Corsica), Sicily (Trinacria (Insular Sicily)) or Naples ((Peninsular) Sicily).

Between 1410-1412 there was a succession crisis in the Crown of Aragon, which ended with the Aragonese Crown going to a cadet branch of the house of Trastamara. At the time Sardinia was a part of the Crown of Aragon and Sicily (Trinacria) was in personal union with the Crown of Aragon.

Trinacria was quite valuable, but a dispute regarding Sardinia might be possible to solve by a treaty (the ruler or Visconti heir will marry a (younger) Aragonese princess).

The succession to Naples was in 1421 granted to Alfonso of Aragon by the childless Joanna II of Naples. So (depending on the PoD) if the house of Visconti would be willing to fully support Joanna II, then they could be named as her heirs.

Quite possible: there could even be a possible marriage of Joan of Naples with one of the sons of GG (with or without also subverting the big feudatories of the kingdom of Naples).

The Aragonese hold on the crown of Sardinia is still a bit disputed at the time, since the Judicate of Arborea is still fighting and the Dorias hold feudal rights in northern Sardinia. Since the Visconti of Milan are the rightful heir of the Judicate of Gallura there would be a legalistic justification for an intervention in Sardinia.

Finally GG wanted very much to marry Maria of Sicily (heir to the Sicilian crown) and was denied by the Aragonese crown in the 1370s. There is even a personal grudge in all this.
 
From the viewpoint of GG, he has a real chance to take Venice, once he has secured his hold on Genoa and has taken Ravenna and Ancona as naval bases.OTOH, the Viscontis control the Po river, Mantua, Verona (and the road to the Brenner pass) as well as the roads to the Sempione and San Gottardo passes.
Since all the overland traffic to and from Venice is effectively producing revenues for him why should he ran the risk to kill the goose which lays the golden eggs?

It seems hard to square, at least for me, "deciding to not attack Venice" with GG's prior history as the warlord who conquered Italy.
 
It seems hard to square, at least for me, "deciding to not attack Venice" with GG's prior history as the warlord who conquered Italy.

A "warlord"?? It is quite an inaccurate - and certainly unkind - label for the first (and possibly the greatest) renaissance prince.

GG is known for his alleged cruelty and ambition, thanks to the black legend disseminated by the Florentines. But even his worst enemies cannot deny that he reorganized the Visconti state, and created a most effective bureaucracy and planted the seed for an effective, post-feudal government. He's also the ruler who funded the construction of the magnificent Certosa just outside Pavia, and started the construction of the Milan cathedral. The first humanists and classicists flocked to his court and if he spent 100,000 florins to buy a ducal title from a penurious emperor he also spent three times the same amount to improve the navigation on the Po river, and to build a grid of artificial canals that improved commerce and insured the irrigation of some of the most productive lands in Europe.

He is also the man who only twice led troops in war, and in both cases while he was very young (and with middle to poor results): not really the portrait of a warlord.

As far as the relations with the Serenissima, I said that he needed to obtain (and secure) Genoa, Ancona and Ravenna. None of these cities has been taken in 1402, and my guess is that it would take another 5 to 10 years to be ready to have a go at Venice (assuming that the Genoese would be willing to have a go: the losses of the war of Chioggia are still pretty fresh in their minds).

But really, why? Venice would not fold up without a fight to death, and the gains would be pretty poor (assuming a victory, I mean). Venice would certainly fund the empire and/or the king of Hungary to come to her side: it would be again the war against Florence but twice or thrice more difficult. It does not take the greatest statesman in the world to realize that an allied Venice is even more profitable than a conquered and gutted one.
 
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