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OTL, apparently there were some sporadic attempts at a deal where Lincoln would order a withdrawal from Ft. Sumter if the Virginia secession convention adjourned sine die (i.e., permanently).

So what if the deal is made and put through?

My guess is that it merely postpones the clash, that war breaks out later over Ft. Pickens or some other federal outpost, and that when war does break out, Virginia elects a new convention which then secedes (or the Virginia legislature just votes for secession without bothering with a convention). But I don't know enough about the period to be sure.

So here are my questions:

1. If this deal merely delays the outbreak of the Civil War, what effect does that have?

2. Are there any ways that this deal could result in either (A) a worsened Union position in the Civil War, or even no Civil War at all, because the Union doesn't have a clear defensive episode where the South is the aggressor or simply because delay makes secession look more like an established fact or (B) Virginia not going lock, stock, and barrel to the Confederacy like OTL but maybe something much more confused and involving a mini-civil war like Missouri, or even remaining in the Union like Kentucky?
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