"Virgin soil" diseases wreak havoc on BOTH European colonists and Native Americans

Hi!

Suppose that when the Europeans first set foot in the Americas, the European colonists suffer the same "virgin soil" casualty rates as the Native Americans did in OTL. IIRC, most of the diseases which the Europeans contracted from the Native Americans were relatively benign. But that could have just been luck.

In this scenario, assume that the Native Americans who contact the Europeans suffer the same 90% casualty rate as they do IOTL for noncontagious diseases. The Europeans do a little better and suffer 75% casualty rates. This is in addition to any casualties the colonists take from the environment and simply trying to settle the land.

Furthermore, assume that both groups have to deal with contagious diseases as well. The contagious diseases are less lethal (since the victim has to be survive long enough to spread it), so they have 60% casualty rates among the Native Americans and 50% casualty rates among the Europeans.

Imagine what would happen if a disease-ridden group of explorers returns home to Spain, England, Holland, or Portugal and started spreading the Native American diseases throughout the New World. Will the meek inherit the earth as the great powers suddenly get sick? You saw what happened to the New World when the Native Americans fell ill. Imagine that happening to the Old World as well.

ACG
 
Hi!

Suppose that when the Europeans first set foot in the Americas, the European colonists suffer the same "virgin soil" casualty rates as the Native Americans did in OTL. IIRC, most of the diseases which the Europeans contracted from the Native Americans were relatively benign. But that could have just been luck.

In this scenario, assume that the Native Americans who contact the Europeans suffer the same 90% casualty rate as they do IOTL for noncontagious diseases. The Europeans do a little better and suffer 75% casualty rates. This is in addition to any casualties the colonists take from the environment and simply trying to settle the land.

Furthermore, assume that both groups have to deal with contagious diseases as well. The contagious diseases are less lethal (since the victim has to be survive long enough to spread it), so they have 60% casualty rates among the Native Americans and 50% casualty rates among the Europeans.

Imagine what would happen if a disease-ridden group of explorers returns home to Spain, England, Holland, or Portugal and started spreading the Native American diseases throughout the New World. Will the meek inherit the earth as the great powers suddenly get sick? You saw what happened to the New World when the Native Americans fell ill. Imagine that happening to the Old World as well.

ACG

Since Old World civilization is already far more advanced than that of the New World and the OW is also still getting off easier than the NW even with deadlier diseases, the OW still comes out on top. It might take a little longer to subjugate the New Worlders, but it would still happen.
 
But would the Old Worlders still want to go over there knowing that, as far as they can tell, they'll just get sick?
 
But would the Old Worlders still want to go over there knowing that, as far as they can tell, they'll just get sick?

There will still be people who are not welcome in the Old World who might have no choice but to go to the New World. Think of the Pilgrims, the Seperatists in England. They could either be persecuted in Europe or establish their own little moral paradise in the New World.

In fact, there might be more people sent to the New World. It wouldn't take much for someone to start blaming Jews, "witches", or others for the plagues that are spreading in Europe.

And the Natives still get beaten. In the 3 advantages Europeans had (guns, germs, and steel), you still wipe out most of the New World, and the Europeans still have the weapons to make their settlements more powerful than the indians. The effectiveness of European diseases is only reduced, not eliminated.
 
Zoonosis, or transfer of diseases from animals to humans, is what caused many common diseases we have today. Such as measles (which we got from cattle), and the common cold (which came from horses). If the native Americans are going to have their own "virgin soil" diseases, they have to domesticate animals.
 
Since Old World civilization is already far more advanced than that of the New World and the OW is also still getting off easier than the NW even with deadlier diseases, the OW still comes out on top. It might take a little longer to subjugate the New Worlders, but it would still happen.

False.
Some tribes have less advanced medicine than Europeans.

Some have far better medicine. That includes not just the Aztecs and Incas. Mayans are even making the first tentative attempts at brain surgery. Plains tribes, for example, had specialists in combat medicine called binders of wounds. Far better generally in herbal medicine as well, as well as using techniques like biofeedback that western medicine wouldn't catch onto until the 20th century.

Nearly all have far better hygiene and sanitations practices than Europeans. Compare Tenochtitlan to any Euro city. Compare any Indian village to most Euro ones. Europeans didn't bathe hardly at all and had cities that were open sewers.

So Native cultures bounce back quicker than Euro ones would have. The absolute worst case scenario might be similar to Africa's colonial history, several centuries until western medicine can cure enough to enable conquest.

And I'm amazed at how many people still use the ridiculous, incredibly out of date, and Eurocentric terms "Old World" and "New World." The Americas are not new to the 100 million plus people in them. How hard is it to read some books written after 1960? How hard is it to say "the Americas"?
 
False.
Some tribes have less advanced medicine than Europeans.

Some have far better medicine. That includes not just the Aztecs and Incas. Mayans are even making the first tentative attempts at brain surgery. Plains tribes, for example, had specialists in combat medicine called binders of wounds. Far better generally in herbal medicine as well, as well as using techniques like biofeedback that western medicine wouldn't catch onto until the 20th century.

Nearly all have far better hygiene and sanitations practices than Europeans. Compare Tenochtitlan to any Euro city. Compare any Indian village to most Euro ones. Europeans didn't bathe hardly at all and had cities that were open sewers.

So Native cultures bounce back quicker than Euro ones would have. The absolute worst case scenario might be similar to Africa's colonial history, several centuries until western medicine can cure enough to enable conquest.

And I'm amazed at how many people still use the ridiculous, incredibly out of date, and Eurocentric terms "Old World" and "New World." The Americas are not new to the 100 million plus people in them. How hard is it to read some books written after 1960? How hard is it to say "the Americas"?

Sorry, by more advanced, I meant in an overall technological way, with firearms and more extensive use of metalworking, as well as in terms of general disease resistance, to the point that they can still conquer the New World. (The word "advanced" in this sense is actually somewhat arbitrary, as anyone familiar with evolution knows -- I can explain more if anybody likes.)

Yes, I'm guilty of using the terms Old and New World. Even though they have a biased Eurocentric origin, they are apt from a different aspect. Since humans evolved in Africa and spread to Europe and Asia prior to spreading to the Americas, the Americas really are a "newer world" to our species. However, I do agree that they're not exactly PC terms. But if you eschew the term "Old World," you're left with the problem of what to call it. "Afro-Eurasia," perhaps, although that excludes Australia.

I bear no prejudice toward the native American peoples. I greatly sympathize with them, especially considering that what the Europeans and their descendants did to them effectively amounts to genocide. In fact, I have a vested interest in AH scenarios whereby the native American civilizations fare better than in OTL. (See my most recent thread here.) So no insult was intended. :)
 
Last edited:
If 75% of the Old World population dies, will there be any impetus to colonize or explore the New World? A whole lot of prime agricultural land just opened up right there at home, plus all those empty mines, businesses, villages, etc...
 
In this scenario, assume that the Native Americans who contact the Europeans suffer the same 90% casualty rate as they do IOTL for noncontagious diseases. The Europeans do a little better and suffer 75% casualty rates
What 'noncontagious diseases' do you mean? The smallpox, traditionally viewed as chief killer of the Amerinds, was highly contagious. The syphilis, purported 'American answer to the Eurasian plagues', is contagious too, while less so compared to smallpox.
Imagine what would happen if a disease-ridden group of explorers returns home to Spain, England, Holland, or Portugal and started spreading the Native American diseases throughout the New World. Will the meek inherit the earth as the great powers suddenly get sick?
Never. The Europeans continued to kill each other even amidst the Black Death (with casualty rates from the disease alone up to one half), and a great power can eliminate its enemies more efficiently than local communities can, so there will be no long-term political or military regress, short of really terrible epidemic, with 75%+ casualty rate.
It was pointed out by previous posters that animal husbandry is a necessary precondition for the rise of contagious diseases. The Amerinds with domesticated animals will be changed beyond recognition compared to the OTL Native Americans, and it'll influence their encounter with the Europeans even more than the American plagues themselves. European colonization will be much less successful in the presence of the more numerous, beast-riding, plough-using and milk-drinking Natives than it was in OTL (coincidentally, when some tribes become horse-riding hunters in OTL, they, even without farming, become much more dangerous for the Europeans).
 
Last edited:
If 75% of the Old World population dies, will there be any impetus to colonize or explore the New World? A whole lot of prime agricultural land just opened up right there at home, plus all those empty mines, businesses, villages, etc...
It depends. Maybe, there'll be less of impetus to colonize cold forests of New England, but there'll remain reasons to establish silver mines, sugar and tobacco plantations, etc. Of course, number of consumers will shrink, but Eurasia'll remain largest market of the world, and labor force for the mines, at least, will be found as easy as it was in OTL, despite plagues decimating the Indian communities. It'll be harder to buy sufficient quantities of the Africans to ensure profitable functioning of the plantation agriculture because of the plagues hitting Africa too, but, on the other hand, with decreased number of consumers less slaves will be needed.
However, all it is a moot point, because the germ-armed pre-contact American societies are almost inevitably animal-armed too, and there will be very little of settler colonization. The Amerinds will be defeated, sooner or later, but they will remain in majority almost everywhere, even if this majority will consist primarily of the slaves/forced laborers/peons. Sugar and tobacco, as well as cotton, will be grown in the Americas, but not by the Africans. Both continents will resemble Andean countries of OTL, with Native-speaking lower classes and European-speaking elite, which will include descendants of the Indian aristocracy as well as colonists.
 
But would the Old Worlders still want to go over there knowing that, as far as they can tell, they'll just get sick?
The English slave traders in the 18th century Sierra Leone had mortality rate of 58 percent per year. They continued their business. The Magellan expedition lost more than three-quarters of its crew members. The Spaniards continued to explore the world. You know, these people were so blood-thirsty, wanted gold so much, and hoped for eternal life after death so hard... And they knew that they will get sick and die in the relatively young age in Europe too, and nobody will help them.
 
Top