Violent fall of Rhodesia or Zimbabwe Rhodesia

Could Rhodesia or Zimbabwe Rhodesia violently fall with ZANU and ZAPU storming Salisbury

Would the White Population be ethnically cleansed

Would ZANU and ZAPU turn on each other in a civil war

What would be the impact on South Africa
 
I get what you are saying, the fact is if something actually happened like that, were Africans started massacring Whites in large numbers you see two things happen:
A backlash against the movements in Africa at that time by both the West and the East because no one wants to be associated with this
B You would get more than South Africa getting involved
 
backlash against the movements in Africa at that time by both the West and the East because no one wants to be associated with this
Couldn't the Soviets deny it as western propaganda

B You would get more than South Africa getting involved
Wouldn't it be a political nightmare for the United States to get military involved as it would have to go through Apartheid South Africa and with Vietnam syndrome
 
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Couldn't the Soviets deny it as western propaganda


Wouldn't it be a political nightmare for the United States to get military involved as it would have to go through Apartheid South Africa and with Vietnam syndrome
Genocide and ethnic cleansing are not Kosher, it would not be the US alone, it would be many nations
 
Genocide and ethnic cleansing are not Kosher, it would not be the US alone, it would be many nations
Where is the West going intervene from besides South Africa given every other country surrounding Rhodesia is Soviet allied and hostile.
 
I could imagine there would be massive outrage and cries of betrayal against the British Government, whether Tory or Labour, for failing to help kith and kin in Rhodesia and not saving them by evacuating them from Rhodesia.
 
Wait a minute, I got a PoD here - a planned coup (sort of) by the Rhodesian military during the 1980 election

OPERATION QUARTZ - RHODESIA 1980

Prior to the election a military intelligence paper was prepared by Rhodesian officers, setting out the possible courses of action for opposing ZAPU and ZANU, and preventing them from winning the election. A second intelligence paper predicted a victory for Mugabe and warned that this could precipitate a rush of victorious terrorists into the capital, Salisbury, confronting white civilians and the security forces. Further studies described what would be "Vital Assets Ground" in the event of this happening and detailed action that would need to be taken to retain these strategic areas. The papers also stressed the need in this case to swiftly "neutralize" the terrorist Assembly Points. Members of COMOPS and Special Branch involved in drafting these papers appeared to be convinced of the need for some sort of pre- emptive action to prevent the country from falling into chaos.

Operation Quartz

These intelligence papers probably formed the basis of the plan that was given the code-name "Operation Quartz". This plan envisaged placing Rhodesian troops at strategic points from which they could simultaneously wipe out the terrorists at the Assembly Points and assassinate Mugabe and the other terrorist leaders at their campaign headquarters. The strike would be assisted by Puma helicopters of the South African Air Force and would involve the participation of elite Recce units of the South African army. Clearly the Rhodesians had discussed Operation Quartz with their counterparts in the SADF and obtained their approval and co-operation. ...

Operation Quartz was apparently based on the assumption that if Mugabe were defeated in the elections it would be necessary to carry out a strike against ZANU to prevent its forces from attempting a coup and taking over the country by force. The plan presupposed a victory by either Nkomo or Muzorewa, or, more likely, a coalition of the two. ZIPRA forces had in fact already begun joint training exercises with the Rhodesian forces, and undoubtedly their leaders had been given an idea of what Op Quartz would entail. Nkomo was not popular with the whites, however, and there was a distinct possibility that the white troops would ignore orders to avoid clashing with ZIPRA.

As the voting drew to a close, the troops of the SAS, RLI and Selous Scouts waited eagerly for the code word ‘Quartz’ to be given. They were impatient to get to grips at last with the enemy that had always used classic guerrilla hit and run tactics. ...

The signal was never given.

Three hours beforehand the operation was cancelled and Mugabe was announced as the victor, his men jubilant in the streets of Salisbury, while the Rhodesian troops watched in silence.


The reason for the cancellation of Operation Quartz is not known, but there are several possible explanations.
Lt.Col. Garth Barrett, commanding officer of the SAS, believed that it had been compromised by someone at the upper planning levels who was secretly working for the British. A credible theory as several earlier attempts to kill Mugabe had been seemingly dogged by bad luck - meetings where ambushes had been laid had been cancelled at the last minute and Mugabe narrowly escaped several bomb attempts on his life. Nkomo too, had narrowly escaped a well-planned and executed attempt on his life by the SAS in Zambia. It was almost as if they were being warned beforehand.

Another theory is that the operation was compromised by ZIPRA men who had been informed of the plan, either on purpose or by accident. Their close proximity to the ZANLA forces would have made it difficult for them to keep their own preparations secret for very long.

A third possibility is that once General Walls realised that Mugabe had won the election he cancelled the operation on the grounds that it had been intended only to be implemented if Mugabe were to lose the election and attempt to take power by force. Walls later claimed in an interview that he had not known of Operation Quartz, but then went on to explain that he had not ordered a coup because it would not have lasted 48 hours in the face of world opposition. Ken Flower, head of the CIO, certainly knew of the plans, since they had been given to him by a Special Branch officer. Interestingly, he made no mention of Op Quartz in his memoirs.

Ian Smith also reportedly told Ian Hancock in an interview in July 1989 that he had spoken to the security force commanders at a meeting in his Salisbury house just prior to the elections, and said that Walls had assured him that Mugabe would not win, but when pressed by Smith, Walls had admitted that there was a contingency plan to stop Mugabe. It seems very unlikely therefore that Walls was unaware of the existence of the Op Quartz plans.

I don’t know as much about Rhodesia as I probably should, but perhaps a good PoD for the scenario described in the OP would be this operation being launched and botched, or the assassination of Mugabe and a military coup winds up sparking the very violence and unrest it was intended to prevent.
 
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Marc

Donor
Could Rhodesia or Zimbabwe Rhodesia violently fall with ZANU and ZAPU storming Salisbury

Would the White Population be ethnically cleansed

Would ZANU and ZAPU turn on each other in a civil war

What would be the impact on South Africa

1. Not likely.
2. History demonstrates that it is generally the European hobby to practice ethnic cleansing.
3. Possibly, but I can't think of a compelling reason why an all out civil war would occur, selective violence is more the historical norm.
4. South Africa would fall to the ground with foam at their lips... really, what do you think would happen?
 

Marc

Donor
Oh, bullshit. Africans have committed their fair share of genocides too.

But of course, tribal warfare leading to near extinction has been damn near ubiquitous on every continent. However, please reread the original question in structure and context - it's about, to borrow a little: “fears that black victims might rise up and take revenge" The midnight sweats of being a European in Africa for generations (and also in the Western Hemisphere, but that is another tragedy). My response was a flip on the dog-whistling.
We all do know the historical reality in Zimbabwe, some violence, some deaths, heavy discrimination, but no mass slaughter of whites, or attempts thereof. Same as in virtually every post-colonial society. And we do know about promoted paranoia, don't we?
 
Wouldn't it be a political nightmare for the United States to get military involved as it would have to go through Apartheid South Africa and with Vietnam syndrome

What??? I'm pretty sure he meant South Africa right south of the border instead of the US
 
Genocide and ethnic cleansing are not Kosher, it would not be the US alone, it would be many nations
Weren't the 1970's the period when the Khmer Rouge were quite happily (edit for clarity: for them; probably not for their victims) mass-murdering away in Cambodia, without any intervention by other states taking place, until they got idiotic messing with raids into Vietnam?

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That said, I don't know how plausible it is that Zimbabwe could see something like that take place.
 
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IOTL South African troops were invited across the border to facilitate the safe evacuation of whites into SA should things go pear-shaped; in a violent collapse of Rhodesia I would expect them to take similar actions
 
Operation Quartz would've been an overwhelming victory for Rhodesian forces, as the insurgents had largely come out in the open and gathered in around 11 spots; Operation Dingo showed what happens when this occurred and the Rhodies struck.
 
I have read somewhere that even Thatcher would have approved of Operation Quartz. How would have made a big difference and even in Anglo-American relations? IIRC, Andy Young has been Mugabe's leading American supporter and apologist.
 
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