Vinland, and expanding butterfly net

The biggest problem is the basic premise that a successful Vinland won't affect Europe. Here is the problem as I see it.

There was at least sporadic contact between Europe and Greenland until the early 1400s. If Vinland was a functioning growing colony during this time, the merchants coming to Greenland would know about it, both from the Greenlanders and from the Vinlanders, who no doubt would travel north to Greenland to trade. Once the merchants knew of Vinland, they would travel there also, because no merchant will give up the chance to make a buck.

The merchants would come, because Vinland could and would supply them with many new world products, mainly walrus ivory, furs, and gyrfalcons for the nobles. They could trade iron tools and weapons, wine, and probably knowledge. In addition, if Vinland was welcoming immigrants, or even if they weren't, the merchants could take settlers from Europe, either openly to a Vinlander port, or covertly to a portion of uninhabited coastline.

If Europe knows about Vinland, the entire exploration of the New World would be very different, especially if Vinlander explorers shared their exploration knowledge with the merchants. You could see European merchants contacting the advanced cultures of Mexico much earlier that Cortez, maybe as early as the mid-1300s.

I know you wanted butterfly nets, but I think these nets would fail, in keeping the knowledge of the Vinlanders away from Europe. As it is, I am relatively sure that Columbus had at least an idea of Vinland when he left Spain in 1492 since he was in Iceland in the late 1470s.
 

MAlexMatt

Banned
No. It does not require large number of colonists.

I just wanted to say no to this. Sustainable human populations in the long term require a relatively large amount of genetic diversity to draw on, otherwise they become inbred within a half dozen generations and hopelessly crippled within ten. I've heard it said that anywhere between 15,000 to 20,000 not-that-closely-related people is necessary to seed a population that will continue to be viable in the long run.
 
I just wanted to say no to this. Sustainable human populations in the long term require a relatively large amount of genetic diversity to draw on, otherwise they become inbred within a half dozen generations and hopelessly crippled within ten. I've heard it said that anywhere between 15,000 to 20,000 not-that-closely-related people is necessary to seed a population that will continue to be viable in the long run.

well, given there will be a trickle of new people entering Vinland and that after the great die off of the North American Indians there will be a certain amount of contact between the natives and the Viking settlers, that number would easily be reached in the long run, if not the short run.
 
The biggest problem is the basic premise that a successful Vinland won't affect Europe. Here is the problem as I see it.
Oh, I am sure there will be effects by 15th century.

I´ll continue with describing the growth of the colony.

In Iceland, the colonies of settlement period were remote and politically independent from each other, because each of them traded separately with Norway and Scotland. It was in 930, almost 60 years after settlement, that Althing was founded - on a new site, not as a continuation of Kjalarnes thing. The son of Ingolfur Arnarsson was prominent in founding Althing, but the Lawspeaker, the overall head of Commonwealth, was elected from a different family. In 10th, 11th century Iceland, the 39 or so godar were close to equal, and while the heirs of Ingolfur Arnarson were formally acknowledged on each Althing, they were one equal among many.

And when some godar did reach prominence over others, starting with 11th century, it was different families, starting with Haukadalur. The heirs of Ingolfur Arnarsson were formally acknowledged, but obscure minor godar.

In Vinland, the prominence of founding chieftain and Thing of l´Anse aux Meadows is sustained through importance of Thing in relations with Skraelings and trade concentrated through reloading at l´Anse aux Meadows on bigger ships (knarrs).

In 1080, Vinland Althing discusses enacting a general law code adapted to the special conditions of Vinland. Also, the position of the chieftain is discussed. Some propose declaring him King of Vinland. But Iceland and Greenland have never had kings, and the petty kings of mainland Norway were centuries ago. King of Man is contemporary. Nevertheless, a suitable compromise is offered to call the leader Jarl of Vinland. There were Jarls of Orkney, and in Norway Jarls of Lade had been independent from outside authority. The other chieftains along the shores of Vinland are placated by allowing them to elect nonhereditary Lawspeaker, like Sweden had both King and Lawspeaker.
As of 1080, the population of Vinland is clearly bigger than Greenland (much smaller than Iceland), but the population is more concentrated than on Iceland.
The representatives of Hochelaga complain that Hochelaga is remote from other Norse settlements and the special conditions with specialization of Skraeling trade and presence of many Skraeling wives and in-laws mean the laws of Vinland are inappropriate. Althing concedes the point and allows the Thing of Hochelaga to be exempt from Vinland law and enact their own. Nevertheless, the representatives of Hochelaga are invited to keep attending Althing, among other reasons to ensure evildoers from Hochelaga are outlawed in Vinland too rather than sheltered.

In 1081, a Norse settlement is founded on Boularderie Island.
In 1082, a group of Norse settles the Island of Orleans.
In 1083, a group of Hochelaga Norse (and first generation Metis) portaging around the rapids of upper St. Lawrence makes a settlement on Thousand Islands.

What next?
 
They would continue exploring through the Great Lakes, and down the eastern seaboard. Probably establish other trading posts equivalent to Hocelaga at the sites of OTL New York (for the Hudson River), Niagara Falls (portage point around the falls), Sault Ste. Marie (portage point into Lake Superior), and maybe Chicago (due to the proximity of a linkage into the Mississippi River).

Their hunters would range over eastern north america trapping furs for the trade with Europe. The sea based hunters would travel to the Magdalene Islands every year to harvest walrus tusks for ivory. Homesteaders finding good farming difficult in the poor soils of Newfoundland would settle Prince Edward Island.

Unfortunately for the natives, while the Vikings might not be belligerent, their diseases would be. There would be great die offs for the better part of the first century. However, this would gradually abate. Eventually trade would normalize with the natives, and European ideas (iron usage, literacy, and such) would spread, as would horses. By the late 1100s I can see contact with the developed native cultures in Central America, either by explorers coming down the Mississippi or by seaborne ones exploring along the coast.

The other thing is that all this wealth coming back to Europe would attract others. The could be tiny colonies of of other maritime nations (trading posts more likely) established in the New World by England, France, and maybe the Basque as well.

Norway would eventually try to horn in on the act just like they did in Denmark and Greenland. The church would also try to spread into Vinland, especially if there were a trickle or larger amounts of immigrants leaving Europe.

Vinland would soon develop other items for trade. Tobacco from the Virginia area, cacao from Mexico, corn (maize), potatoes from the Andes, and many other exotic items.

By the 1400s I would envision Vinland looking like this. - Newfoundland would be settled, with the major port/capital of the entire area and small farming communities and fishing communities dotting the coast. The surviving Beothuks would remain in the interior, except for the few who have fully integrated into Vinland Society.

Along the North Shore of Quebec and Labrador would be lumbering camps and semi-permanent hunting base camps. Prince Edward Island would be mainly farming. Beyond that area, Hocelaga and the other trading depots would be thriving, each with small farming areas surrounding them, and hunting base camps radiating out several hundred miles.

There may also be smaller trading depots of the English, the French, the Basque, maybe the Spanish and Portugese (once the Reconquista is over) along what in OTL would be the US east coast and the Caribbean Islands.

Native Society would pretty much be similar to what it was in OTL with the addition of horses, iron smelting, and a few other technologies. Their numbers would still be recovering from the Great Die Off though. Some of the more organized native groupings in North America would actually be inching towards forming nations of their own (the Cherokee, the Iroquois for example). Of course the nations of the Mexican and Andean areas would fully functioning and learning from the occasional traders who visit them. Most of the eastern coastline of North America and northern South America would be known, as well as a large amount of interior North America through exploration of the Mississippi and St. Lawrence watersheds. Less would be known about the Pacific, but it is likely some exploration of the Pacific coast of Mexico, Central America and South America would have been made.
 
They would continue exploring through the Great Lakes, and down the eastern seaboard. Probably establish other trading posts equivalent to Hocelaga at the sites of OTL New York (for the Hudson River),
There are better spots for Hudson.
Niagara Falls (portage point around the falls), Sault Ste. Marie (portage point into Lake Superior), and maybe Chicago (due to the proximity of a linkage into the Mississippi River).
Agreed.
Homesteaders finding good farming difficult in the poor soils of Newfoundland would settle Prince Edward Island.
I´m not quite sure what would make Prince Edward Island so important.
Meanwhile I suggested Boularderie Island for settlement. Mouth of Bras d´Or, for one.
The other thing is that all this wealth coming back to Europe would attract others. The could be tiny colonies of of other maritime nations (trading posts more likely) established in the New World by England, France, and maybe the Basque as well.
There were no trading posts established by England or France in Iceland OTL. Nor, indeed, in Norway - but Hanse did have their Bergen Kontor.
In 11th and 12th century, the wealth from Vinland is not important for anybody except Vinlanders themselves, so most of the trade will be made by Vinlanders. Unlike Iceland and Greenland, Vinland has abundant ship timber, so Vinlanders build their own ships, do their own sailing - and try to develop ships and sailing techniques to fit their own specific requirements.
Norway would eventually try to horn in on the act just like they did in Denmark and Greenland.
Denmark?
The church would also try to spread into Vinland, especially if there were a trickle or larger amounts of immigrants leaving Europe.
Agreed.
By the 1400s I would envision Vinland looking like this. - Newfoundland would be settled, with the major port/capital of the entire area and small farming communities and fishing communities dotting the coast. The surviving Beothuks would remain in the interior, except for the few who have fully integrated into Vinland Society.

Along the North Shore of Quebec and Labrador would be lumbering camps and semi-permanent hunting base camps. Prince Edward Island would be mainly farming. Beyond that area, Hocelaga and the other trading depots would be thriving, each with small farming areas surrounding them, and hunting base camps radiating out several hundred miles.
I imagine it rather sooner than 1400s.
There may also be smaller trading depots of the English, the French, the Basque, maybe the Spanish and Portugese (once the Reconquista is over) along what in OTL would be the US east coast and the Caribbean Islands.
Something I doubt, for reasons.

Now, going forwards in history...
1096 - census in Iceland. 3800 farmsteads are found (OTL, unchanged)
1097 - Inspired by Iceland, a census in Vinland. 1300 farmsteads found in Vinland Proper. Also over 200 in Hochelaga - counting the Metis (who are Christian and Norse speaking).
1104 - Papacy removes the North from the authority of Archbishop of Bremen, and makes the bishop of Lund Archbishop, with authority over whole North (OTL, unchanged).
1106 - Iceland, with 3800 farms, has for some time found the island too big for the single bishop (since 1056). The new Archbishop grants their request and founds a new See at Holar. The Diocese of Holar actually covers rather less than half of Iceland, with just 1000 or so farms. (OTL, unchanged)
1107 - Vinland, with more population than the Holar diocese, gets their own bishop. Since l´Anse aux Meadows is functioning trade centre, and actually more populous than any concentrated settlement in Iceland (Skalholt and Holar were chiefly farmsteads without towns), it is the obvious episcopal see.
1110 - The Norse-Metis of Thousand Islands make a permanent settlement on Grand Island and Niagara Falls. That enables them to sail upper Great Lakes.
1111 - The Norse-Metis of Hochelaga make a settlement in Chambly. That means they can sail along Lake Champlain.
1112 - The Norse settle Aquidneck Island. It is after they have rounded Nova Scotia and Cape Cod sailing south, and from that point they can sail in sheltered waters along Long Island Sound and up Hudson, Passaic and Raritan.
 
As you can see, the point is that Vinland is following a development path parallel to OTL Iceland - but divergent, because of different conditions.

I have seen it quoted repeatedly that founding a city in Iceland was "forbidden by law".

I have yet to see a clear explanation for it.

What I could find and figure out:

Iceland DID have significant centralized trade ports since 11th century. Eyrarbakki in South, and Gesir in north.

They were not quite towns. For one, they were seasonal - abandoned for winter.

A law Iceland did have was that trade ships had to leave by 8th of September. Sailing later in autumn was unsafe.

In Vinland, this means problems. It is feasible to sail in one summer from Norway or Ireland to Iceland, around Iceland and back. But past Iceland, past Greenland and to Vinland - the summer gets short. Therefore the Vinland traders prefer to spend winter in Vinland - one summer to sail to Europe, the other summer to Vinland.

Local traders from Vinland itself naturally go home for winter, even if different from Leifsstadir. And some Greenland and Iceland traders with relatives in Vinland winter with them. But as far as the other traders are concerned, the Jarl allows and invites them to spend winter in Leifsstadir where they were trading in summer anyway. Leifsstadir therefore becomes year-round town in late 11th century already - unlike Eyrarbakki, but like Nidaros, Bergen and the longphorts in Ireland.

Further developments:

As the population grows, early 12th century Vinland has 2 rich landowners. The Jarl and the Bishop. Both sit in Leifsstadir, both engage in trade, both own ships. They are not the only shipowners, several chieftains around Vinland own ships and sometimes send ships to Iceland and Europe, but the Jarl and the Bishop are the richest single ones.

They experiment with building bigger and better ships and exploring sea routes for more efficient trade with Europe - bigger merchant ships came to be used in 12th century Norway as well.

They know that while the southern tip of Greenland is the latitude of Shetland and Norway, Vinland is at the latitude of Ireland. Already in 10th century when Bjarni Herjolfsson went down in a rotting ship, some of his crew escaped in a skin boat and reached Ireland. With the Viking ships, even knarrs, crossing Atlantic Vinland to Ireland was always possible, but the long voyage meant they ran short of provisions in case of bad weather. The bigger "Vinland cog", however, can make the crossing and still have room for a decent amount of freight left.

Since the Viking navigators know their latitude but not longitude after a long crossing, they aim for Kerry. With decent luck they can sight the mountains of Kerry before crashing into rocks, and there are several bays offering some shelter against foul winds. After landfall in Kerry, they can go and trade either in Limerick or in Cork - or in other longphorts in Ireland. Returning to Vinland, however, would be contrary to prevailing westerlies and they would run short of provisions, especially water. Thus the Vinland cogs sail north, past Hebrides - under King of Norway - and return to Vinland via Iceland and Greenland, where east winds are more common and where they can take water (and do more trading).

That has repercussions in Iceland - the locals no longer bother to own ships (as per OTL), but the traders in 12th century Iceland are not only Norwegians (as per OTL), but also Vinlanders returning from Ireland.
 
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