Vijayanagara Ascendant. A South Indian TL

[EvolvedSaurian]

EvolvedSaurian

The Mughal's were supplanted by a rival for 15 years, 1540-1554 before regaining power. It could be butterflied so that they never regain power but there's almost certainly going to be a powerful state, almost certainly Muslim, dominating the very rich and populous lands of N India. [At least unless and until either Vijayanagara develops the technology and resources to expand northwards or a European power takes over].

Honestly, history does seem to favor your argument. Northern India does seem to have this knack for unifying. On the other hand, the image of Afghan and rajput mercenaries selling their swords to the hghest bidder is just too good to pass up.

Who were some of the powers the Mughals supplanted in OTL?

I would suggest its best if the Dutch are only temporary allies for Vijayanagara. That they would need to manouver and diplo with all the potential powers. If they get committed to one power that will alienate others. Also, given their resources, the Dutch are likely to be superceded as the main European power in the region. Vijayanagara doesn't want to go down with them.

Steve

Here you are likely correct. Attaching themselves to one European power exclusively would likely smack of vassalage, as well as, as you say, anger other Europeans.

Flocc does have this thing for the Dutch, so...

 

[traveller76]

Defineity

I will watch this since I am a Indiaphile.

 

[stevep]

Honestly, history does seem to favor your argument. Northern India does seem to have this knack for unifying. On the other hand, the image of Afghan and rajput mercenaries selling their swords to the hghest bidder is just too good to pass up.

Who were some of the powers the Mughals supplanted in OTL?

.

ES

If you mean who supplanted the Mughals for that period, checking on Wiki, a Pashtun general Sher Shah Suri deposed the 2nd Mughal emperor, but only ruled for 5 years then another Suri ruled for another 9 before the Mughals were restored.

The dynasty were descended from Tamarlane and came out of Afghanistan to defeat the last of the Delhi Sutans, who had ruled most of N India for a couple of centuries. Also had to defeat a Rajput alliance.

Steve

 

[Flocculencio]

Re the Mughals- the Indo-Gangetic valley is relatively easy to unify so whether or not the Mughals gain ascendancy there's going to be some form of Delhi sultanate dominating North India. The question is going to be the amount of dominance it can exert over the Deccan.

ES: The Narmada may be too far north. As it is the region between the Krishna and Godavari rivers sort of forms the boundary between the largely Dravidian regions and non-Dravidian ones. I suspect the Godavari would be a more effective "Rhine" if it comes to that although Vijayanagar may not really push far beyond it's present borders- there's really nothing it actually needs from the Deccan Sultanates and while smashing their incursions might be doable enough an actual wholesale conquest might well get the Empire bogged down. Think of the Deccan states as the Italian states and the Maharaja as the King of France.

The Deccan will become a fermenting boil of independent states and interacting with them is going to give Vijayangara and other Indian states a boost.

As for allying with the Dutch, I think giving the Portuguese so many concessions and having it backfire on them is going to teach the Empire a lesson- they'll be trade partners and such but they're not going to give territory outright to them.

 

[Flocculencio]

1633: The Kerala War

This was to be the first large scale conflict between an Indian army and a European one- while the majority of the Portuguese troops were Goan sepoys they had been trained to European standards by Portuguese officers. The Imperial troops crossed the Western Ghats in February 1633, leaving them four months of campaigning weather before the June monsoon would most likely immobilise the opposing forces.

Manoel d'Olivera, Captain-Governor of Cochin had by this time quelled the local insurrection in the major cities but there was no way for him to police every town and village in the country- in the farm country of the interior the Orthodox gentry had, in an act of spite, burned the pepper crop at the direction of their Archbishop. The Jews of Cochin, fearful of extermination at the hands of the Inquisition had fled into the Orthodox heartland for refuge.

With the murder of the Raja of Cochin, most of the Hindu noble castes had declared against Portugal and unlike the Orthodox, (who limited themselves to expelling or in some cases summarily lynching Catholic priests and their followers) had actively begun attacking Portuguese garrisons. Of the three Keralite states of Malabar, Cochin and Travanacore; Malabar and Cochin had fallen more directly under Portuguese dominance and the Malabar capital of Calicut (Kozhikode on the map) had also largely become a Portuguese stronghold. Travanacore had mainly escaped this dominance and an organised army, though one not trained along Western lines began to march towards Cochin.

d'Olivera's forces met this army South of Cochin and crushed it utterly in the Battle of Allapuzha. The remnants of this force fled inland to seek refuge with the Orthodox, as the Jews had before them. These collected allies could do little more than harry the flanks of the Portuguese host as it turned North, burning and looting it's way across the countryside on it's way to meet the Imperial forces descending through the Pallakad Gap.

On the 28th of February 1633, d'Olivera and his troops faced down a well-disciplined, fully trained pike and shot Imperial army under Maharaja Krishnadevaraya III at the Battle of Pallakad. Outnumbered and with no technological superiority, the Portuguese were driven back and forced to retreat to Cochin which was soon beseiged.

 

[pompejus]

As for allying with the Dutch, I think giving the Portuguese so many concessions and having it backfire on them is going to teach the Empire a lesson- they'll be trade partners and such but they're not going to give territory outright to them.

Looking at Japan it looks like that would be no problem for the Dutch. They were traders first and colonisers second. That said with India more or less closed for European colonisation, I suspect that the Dutch will have more competition in Indonesia.

 

[MrP]

Ooh, very cool!

 

[Flocculencio]

Looking at Japan it looks like that would be no problem for the Dutch. They were traders first and colonisers second. That said with India more or less closed for European colonisation, I suspect that the Dutch will have more competition in Indonesia.

India isn't closed for colonisation- South India might be but there are all those states in the North.

The main thing that changes is that over the next hundred years or so, as the Infantry Revolution spreads across India, Europe is going to lose it's technological advantage. What with conflict within India it might well be Indian armies that begin to make more breakthroughs in military science- perhaps linear formations or Napoleonic columns or bayonets might be invented by Indians ITTL. This is going to make life more difficult for colonialists ITTL but at this point in time (early 17th C) there's no reason trading posts at the mouths of the Ganges and Indus can't develop into larger colonial establishments in future.

Also what do people think the knock on effects are going to be with South India relatively off limits (i.e. colonial profit is going to have to come from outright trade not occupation and institution of a plantation economy)? Perhaps an earlier more aggressive focus on the Malay states and Indo-China? IOTL these remained relatively ignored until the 19th C but ITTL things will be different.

Maybe also a greater focus on East Africa? Much of it has the right climate for plantation crops- spices or sugar could be transplanted in some cases.

 

[Valdemar II]

India isn't closed for colonisation- South India might be but there are all those states in the North.

The main thing that changes is that over the next hundred years or so, as the Infantry Revolution spreads across India, Europe is going to lose it's technological advantage. What with conflict within India it might well be Indian armies that begin to make more breakthroughs in military science- perhaps linear formations or Napoleonic columns or bayonets might be invented by Indians ITTL. This is going to make life more difficult for colonialists ITTL but at this point in time (early 17th C) there's no reason trading posts at the mouths of the Ganges and Indus can't develop into larger colonial establishments in future.

Also what do people think the knock on effects are going to be with South India relatively off limits (i.e. colonial profit is going to have to come from outright trade not occupation and institution of a plantation economy)? Perhaps an earlier more aggressive focus on the Malay states and Indo-China? IOTL these remained relatively ignored until the 19th C but ITTL things will be different.

Maybe also a greater focus on East Africa? Much of it has the right climate for plantation crops- spices or sugar could be transplanted in some cases.

The biggest effect will honest be that we may see a much more limited conquest colonism (the British control of India was quite inspirational to other power in the 19th century), and a greater focus on factories and other economical outposts.
Economical I think this are going to mean that Europe are going to richer, through we may see Britain being relative poorer, mostly because we see the British middleman being removed, but also because a richer and more independent India would be a bigger marked for European products.
The biggest winner I imagine would be the Dutch, whose traders will continue having access to India for a longer periode, and may likely end up being the middleman for trade in the Indian Ocean (especially because they likely still end up dominating South East Asia).
Of course if India turn into a major consumer of imported sugar, the European will likely set up plantage colonies in East Africa, if not it likely stay much like OTL.
For the Americas the major different will likely be a relative poorer Britain in the 18th century, beside that it's unlikely we will see a major difference beside the butterflies.
If you decide to let the Danish be a bigger player on the Vijayanagara (would Europeans call it that?) marked, the result a richer Denmark, which will likely hit in the more agressive part of Danish history between 1660-1720, which will have massive effect on the Baltic and North Germany (especially because the Hanovers will likely be butterflied away). So we may see a Denmark which at the very least end up with Swedens and Gottorps German possesions (I guess the 30 Years War still end up much like OTL).

 

[Flocculencio]

The biggest effect will honest be that we may see a much more limited conquest colonism (the British control of India was quite inspirational to other power in the 19th century), and a greater focus on factories and other economical outposts.
Economical I think this are going to mean that Europe are going to richer, through we may see Britain being relative poorer, mostly because we see the British middleman being removed, but also because a richer and more independent India would be a bigger marked for European products.
The biggest winner I imagine would be the Dutch, whose traders will continue having access to India for a longer periode, and may likely end up being the middleman for trade in the Indian Ocean (especially because they likely still end up dominating South East Asia).
Of course if India turn into a major consumer of imported sugar, the European will likely set up plantage colonies in East Africa, if not it likely stay much like OTL.
For the Americas the major different will likely be a relative poorer Britain in the 18th century, beside that it's unlikely we will see a major difference beside the butterflies.
If you decide to let the Danish be a bigger player on the Vijayanagara (would Europeans call it that?) marked, the result a richer Denmark, which will likely hit in the more agressive part of Danish history between 1660-1720, which will have massive effect on the Baltic and North Germany (especially because the Hanovers will likely be butterflied away). So we may see a Denmark which at the very least end up with Swedens and Gottorps German possesions (I guess the 30 Years War still end up much like OTL).

Very, very interesting points made. I will certainly keep this in mind when plotting out the TL.

Do you think that imperial colonialism, as opposed to commercial missions, might still be tried in the East Indies and Indo-China, though?

Re sugarcane...it's actually native to India and widely grown there so there's not really going to be much of a market for foreign sugar.

Apparently the Portuguese called it the Kingdom of Bisnaga so that might be the source of European names for it.

 

[Hendryk]

By 1600, the new European military science theories had begun to spread further afield through India. Pike and shot armies well supported by artillery had proved their worth against the more traditional cavalry and artillery based armies that the Deccan Sultanates sent South against Vijayanagara.

One of the things I learned from you is that while Indian armies had impressive artillery, their infantry was ill-trained rabble. I see this weakness has been corrected, and just in time for maximum effect.

Also what do people think the knock on effects are going to be with South India relatively off limits (i.e. colonial profit is going to have to come from outright trade not occupation and institution of a plantation economy)? Perhaps an earlier more aggressive focus on the Malay states and Indo-China? IOTL these remained relatively ignored until the 19th C but ITTL things will be different.

Well, what if South India itself joined the imperialist game in the Indonesian archipelago? It's not like the region hadn't loong been under its cultural influence. Could hard power follow soft power before the Europeans get too firm a foothold in the region?

Among the knock-on effects, I think the coastal enclaves around Africa are going to become hotly contested as way stations to the lucrative Indian market. Capetown may end up changing hands quite a few times.

 

[Flocculencio]

Well, what if South India itself joined the imperialist game in the Indonesian archipelago? It's not like the region hadn't loong been under its cultural influence. Could hard power follow soft power before the Europeans get too firm a foothold in the region?

Among the knock-on effects, I think the coastal enclaves around Africa are going to become hotly contested as way stations to the lucrative Indian market. Capetown may end up changing hands quite a few times.

RE South Indian imperialism- it's an interesting possibility but, really, what reason would there be for it? The concept of colonies for their own sake hasn't yet emerged and commercially there's really nothing produced in SE Asia that isn't available in South India. Well, besides petroleum but that's a total non-issue in this era.

I think like you say, there may well be a scramble for African ports ITTL as each country tries to secure it's route to the East.

Sri Lanka is going to be the big prize, ITTL, as is Bengal. If South India is resistant, pressure on the North is going to increase.

 

[Hendryk]

RE South Indian imperialism- it's an interesting possibility but, really, what reason would there be for it? The concept of colonies for their own sake hasn't yet emerged and commercially there's really nothing produced in SE Asia that isn't available in South India.

Just shooting off air here, but would there be any possibility of Indonesia's polities deliberately putting themselves under Vijayanagaran overlordship in order to avoid being seen as tempting targets by European powers?

 

[Flocculencio]

Just shooting off air here, but would there be any possibility of Indonesia's polities deliberately putting themselves under Vijayanagaran overlordship in order to avoid being seen as tempting targets by European powers?

Well, Majapahit just broke up a century before- the rulers of most of the Indonesian kingdoms are Muslim by this point. The Hindu intelligentsia and aristocracy evacuated to Bali. By the 17th C Bali and some Eastern Javanese statelets are the last Hindu polities left in the East Indies. They might well place themselves under Vijayanagari suzerainty but I can't see the Sultanates doing so.

All this is a moot question because any projection of Vijayanagari power requires naval capabilities equal to European ones which might be a bit trickier to develop than land capabilities.

Any thoughts from anyone else?

 

[Valdemar II]

Very, very interesting points made. I will certainly keep this in mind when plotting out the TL.

Do you think that imperial colonialism, as opposed to commercial missions, might still be tried in the East Indies and Indo-China, though?

Yes, but more accidental, I imagine the Dutch will more or less conquer the area, but the Dutch will lose a lot of it position in Europe no matter what through the 18th century (purely demographic and political reasons*). So there will be less prestige in large colonial territories. Of course Europeans will likely stil conquer territories around the world, but they will do it for practical reasons, not to have a big part of the world map in their colour. So I see more something like China and Japan, non European states forced open to European trade, with a few ports under European control to project power and maybe a few states made into de facto protectorates. Through areas like Australia and coastal Africa will still end up under European control (through we may see Oman survive).

Re sugarcane...it's actually native to India and widely grown there so there's not really going to be much of a market for foreign sugar.

Thought so, any early colonies along East Africa will be to service the Indian marked, the Americas are better at serve the European one. Through if there are greater trade with India we may see the English, French and Danish more active in setting proviant stations in the areas Europeans thrives like the Portugeese and Dutch.

Apparently the Portuguese called it the Kingdom of Bisnaga so that might be the source of European names for it.

I think that will end up it name in Europa, it easier to remember.

*The Dutch can't compete with the English and French in population, and internal politics and policies will keep them from building as strong central power and army as Prussia and to lesser extent Denmark, Sweden and Hesse-Kassel.

 

[Ridwan Asher]

Well, Majapahit just broke up a century before- the rulers of most of the Indonesian kingdoms are Muslim by this point. The Hindu intelligentsia and aristocracy evacuated to Bali. By the 17th C Bali and some Eastern Javanese statelets are the last Hindu polities left in the East Indies. They might well place themselves under Vijayanagari suzerainty but I can't see the Sultanates doing so.

All this is a moot question because any projection of Vijayanagari power requires naval capabilities equal to European ones which might be a bit trickier to develop than land capabilities.

Any thoughts from anyone else?

East Java and Bali are just plain to far from Vijayanagara, not mentioned surrounded by muslims, if that matters at all. Vijayanagara that manages to set their foot there would one that's seriously European-eqsue maritime, which like you've just implied as will not necessarily going to be the case ITTL. A casually maritime Vijayanagara can certainly has the chance to bring Northern Sumatra and Malay Peninsula into her orbit, but I don't see them being governed in European sense of colonialism, instead it'll most likely be Indian-style vassalage. Well, at least until a reason to change that tradition emerges....

 

[EvolvedSaurian]

RE South Indian imperialism- it's an interesting possibility but, really, what reason would there be for it?

Tin, perhaps?

 

[Nicomacheus]

RE South Indian imperialism- it's an interesting possibility but, really, what reason would there be for it? The concept of colonies for their own sake hasn't yet emerged and commercially there's really nothing produced in SE Asia that isn't available in South India. Well, besides petroleum but that's a total non-issue in this era.

What about horses? I recall reading somewhere in John Keay's massive India that domestic Indian horses weren't as promising as those produced elsewhere. I may be remembering him quoting a historical invader (possibly Babur), though. Nevertheless, if Vijayanagara trades with say Ottoman Arabia for stallions (as a luxury item for nobles), might that trade extent to other forms of livestock, say emus from Australia or even turkeys from America. Alternate protein sources may be as alluring to TTL's Indians as spices were to OTL's Europeans. Of course, there's still the general predilection towards vegetarianism et al to compete with, but you also have the potato coming along, which can be quite transformative on its own, though I doubt it would spark the need for colonialism. At some point though pure population pressure could be a spark for colonialism.

Nevertheless, I'd think that all of the above are probably just going to come down to a more two-sided commercial relationship. Which might be just as interesting: the Vijayanagara Farangi Trading Company might set up offices in a down-and-out Western European entrepot, with South Indians exporting Indian goods themselves.

 

[Flocculencio]

What about horses? I recall reading somewhere in John Keay's massive India that domestic Indian horses weren't as promising as those produced elsewhere. I may be remembering him quoting a historical invader (possibly Babur), though. Nevertheless, if Vijayanagara trades with say Ottoman Arabia for stallions (as a luxury item for nobles), might that trade extent to other forms of livestock, say emus from Australia or even turkeys from America. Alternate protein sources may be as alluring to TTL's Indians as spices were to OTL's Europeans. Of course, there's still the general predilection towards vegetarianism et al to compete with, but you also have the potato coming along, which can be quite transformative on its own, though I doubt it would spark the need for colonialism. At some point though pure population pressure could be a spark for colonialism.

Nevertheless, I'd think that all of the above are probably just going to come down to a more two-sided commercial relationship. Which might be just as interesting: the Vijayanagara Farangi Trading Company might set up offices in a down-and-out Western European entrepot, with South Indians exporting Indian goods themselves.

Emus might be stretching it- I do think, as you say, that bilateral trade will develop with Vijayanagari trade delegations setting up shop in the West. I think this depends on a suitable merchant marine being developed- if Indian traders are dependent on Western ships there's never going to be the opportunity to trade as equals in Europe.

 

[Valdemar II]

Emus might be stretching it- I do think, as you say, that bilateral trade will develop with Vijayanagari trade delegations setting up shop in the West. I think this depends on a suitable merchant marine being developed- if Indian traders are dependent on Western ships there's never going to be the opportunity to trade as equals in Europe.

The problem are that there are very little incentiment to trade with Europeans in Europe foremost European will come to India, second sailing in the (Northen) Indian Ocean are much more friendly than the Atlantic. Beside European ship couldn't just be copied, they was the place where the first elements of European technological superiority first shown itself. To build them demanded masters in the field, a strong urban (early) industry and the necessary infrastructure. To adopt European arms and tactics are nothing to the adoption of European maritime technology, and the short term and medium term (as in the first few centuries) benefits are much smaller. Of course if Bisnagap) build them with the purpose to trade in the Indian Ocean, well it become much more possible and could lay the groundwork for adoption of European technics, the problem are that the benefits too are smaller, and it would bring them in competion with some hostile Europeans and Arabs.

I think Bisnaga would be better off focusing on centralising their Empire at first. One of Europes biggest strengths was in the end more efficient centralised states, just as much as technological superiority. Of course that lead to Bisnagas biggest weakness the Caste system. In Europe social mobility was a important factor in building up the modern state (and outside royalty the mobility was much bigger than people usual think), it ensured a bigger recruitment base both for the adminstration, army and bourgeois. While I can see Bisnaga doing quite well up to 1800 with the Caste system after that it will become a heavier and heavier chain to carry.