Vietnam WI: SuperDiem

Jean-Baptiste Ngo Dinh Diem. President of the Republic of South Vietnam from his "election" in 1955 to his assassination in the back of an APC in early November 1963. Hard-working, meticulous, energetic. Celibate, passionately patriotic, an ardent Catholic. Ferociously anti-Communist, sharply bigoted against Buddhists. Arrogant, stubborn, reflexively authoritarian. Diem's virtues were the obverse of his vices; the same stubbornness that let him crush the Binh Xuyen and the sects led him inevitably into lethal confrontation with the country's Buddhist majority.

Okay, so [handwave] SuperDiem. Postulate a *Diem who is as tough as ours, but smarter, more flexible, and infinitely more cunning. This one uses his Catholicism but is never used by it; is perfectly willing to switch positions as necessary; is not emotionally engaged with anti-Communism (though, of course, he resists Communists who are trying to take over his country); and is, if not a man of the people -- that's probably too great a stretch -- is at least a competent judge of the public temper. (So, if nothing else, no self-immolating Buddhist monks in this TL.) He's like the Diem of OTL, except much better! He's... SuperDiem.

SuperDiem also has some notion of economic development (which Diem sort of did) and a strong interest in it (which Diem seems to have utterly lacked). He's no more interested in human rights than Diem was OTL, but he lacks Diem's vindictive streak, and he does not consider civil society to be an actively bad thing -- journalists, lawyers, NGOs, whatever, they can do their silly things as long as they don't make any serious trouble. (Which would be, by the standards of Southeast Asia c. 1960, about as good as it got.)

SuperDiem is cunning enough that he won't easily be blindsided by a coup. He can be overthrown -- he's clever, not superhuman -- but he's not going to charge blindly into a trap, nor fall as Diem did to the likes of Big Minh. Overall, think of him as something like a tougher, meaner Lee Kuan Yew.

SuperDiem faces the same challenges as inOTL. Presumably he'll deal with the Emperor, Binh Xuyen and the sects just as well as Diem did. But still: the North, the Viet Cong, the Americans, the big landowners, the Buddhist-Catholic split, yadda yadda.

So then: what seems the most likely outcome for SuperDiem? Assume that he'll want to stay in power indefinitely. Where is he in, say, 1968? And does the course of the war change by much? or does that river of historical inevitability roll, roll darkly on?

Thoughts?


Doug M.
 
There are multiple reasons for the loss of South Vietnam, so you need to consider how this SuperDiem handles it, and whether BizarroDiem somehow foils him.

1) Instability of South Vietnam for almost a decade after the coup. Obviously, any scenario where their is a SuperDiem solves this.

2) Westmoreland's failure to adequately train the ARVN. This caused the ARVN to be unprepared to handle the responsibility of running the war, and disillusioned US soldiers since they noticed the ARVN didn't want to fight (because they knew they were unprepared).

3) The failure of Westmoreland's "Search & Destroy", and the need to "Clear & Hold".

4) The failure of the strategic hamlets policy. Analysis seems to be that the major reason for failure was that they pushed too many people into it too soon so that the government could not adequately provided protection or services. Let's assume any SuperDiem handles this better.

5) The infiltration of Communists in the world press corps in Saigon, insuring that there is a news spin that will always undermine the war effort. Not much that SuperDiem can do about that.

6) The loss in morale at the US home front that the war could ever be won. SuperDiem might be able to change maybe half of that equation, but much of the failure here lies with LBJ, McNamara, and Westmoreland.

7) Loss of US logistical support after the Nixon resignation that allowed the conventional forces of North Vietnam to overrun the South.

Really, SuperDiem only solves maybe half the problems of the war IOTL. Much of the failure has to be laid at the choice of Westmoreland as senior US commander, and the wrong policies he choose.

It's hard to state what will happen. LBJ choose to escalate because it was apparent that South Vietnam was falling. A SuperDiem might delay that decision if a better governed South Vietnam means the ARVN and government can continue to fight on its own with only American advisor help. If things deteriorate that intervention becomes necessary, it really depends on who the US sends to help. Westmoreland will be a distaster no matter who is in charge of South Vietnam. If someone else is picked, there is a chance the war can be won (at least to the point that the US could eventually leave with the expectation that South Vietnam would continue to hold).
 
There are multiple reasons for the loss of South Vietnam, so you need to consider how this SuperDiem handles it, and whether BizarroDiem somehow foils him.

5) The infiltration of Communists in the world press corps in Saigon, insuring that there is a news spin that will always undermine the war effort. Not much that SuperDiem can do about that.

Have you got any sources for this? The news I saw and read (in the UK) during the war was definitely not Communist propaganda or perhaps Walter Cronkite was "Red under the bed" ?
 
Have you got any sources for this? The news I saw and read (in the UK) during the war was definitely not Communist propaganda or perhaps Walter Cronkite was "Red under the bed" ?

Pham Xuan An is the best well known, but there were others. The agents weren't the Westerners reporting in Vietnam, but the local Vietnamese who were helping them set up interviews, translate for them, and did most of the legwork. Maybe 1/3 of the press ever bothered to go out into the field, so they relied very heavily on local talent. Obviously, we're not talking about Walter Cronkite.

Obviously, these efforts were not geared to writing the actual news stories themselves, or attempting to convince the reporters what to write. It is how they influenced what information to bring to the press, and how they spun it. By helping frame the story of the events, they helped determine how the news was reported.
 
Pham Xuan An is the best well known, but there were others. The agents weren't the Westerners reporting in Vietnam, but the local Vietnamese who were helping them set up interviews, translate for them, and did most of the legwork. Maybe 1/3 of the press ever bothered to go out into the field, so they relied very heavily on local talent. Obviously, we're not talking about Walter Cronkite.

Obviously, these efforts were not geared to writing the actual news stories themselves, or attempting to convince the reporters what to write. It is how they influenced what information to bring to the press, and how they spun it. By helping frame the story of the events, they helped determine how the news was reported.

It is.. not quite how it work. Specially in wartime era, with efforts to censor and all.
 
It is.. not quite how it work. Specially in wartime era, with efforts to censor and all.

Are you saying that the fact that Viet Cong and North Vietnamese intelligence agents had infiltrated the western press corps and were responsible for most of the field reporting had zero impact on how the news was reported back home?
 
Shouldn't this be in Space Bat if its premise is a Super Diem?

And, why not have him just kill ALL the enemy North Vietnamese, personally, with his super powers, super speed, and and super sight? Oh, and telepathy to tell which' the enemy.

Seriously, all you've got here is wishful thinking, hardly enough. Where does he come from? What are his weaknesses?
 
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Wouldn't you have to make the Diem regime not favorable to Catholics at the expense of Buddhists, have it be less corrupt and have more support from the people in order for it to stand.
 
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