Vietnam War with Nationalist China

What would be the impact of a victorious KMT on the Vietnam War? Though there is no PRC to object to an invasion of North Vietnam, the Viet Cong is still rampaging in the South so it is doubtful an invasion of the North would solve anything. Would the North be more obliged to keep their Paris Peace Accords? What of Cambodia and Laos? Sino-Vietnamese War of 1973?
 
When do the KMT win? I ask as a Nationalist China is likely to have a serious effect on things well before the Vietnam War - as I understand things it was thanks to military supplies being funnelled over the northern Vietnamese border from China that allowed the Viet Minh to convert from a guerrilla to more conventional military force, with no supplies coming via China, or at least a much reduced flow, that potentially has rather large changes on the preceding First Indochina War. Even if things do shake out somewhat similar to our timeline with a communist North Vietnam and capitalist South Vietnam, that is in no way guaranteed, which would allow the Soviets to potentially ship in supplies for a Vietnam war I have to wonder how enthusiastic the North Vietnamese would be, having to keep one eye over their should even if Nationalist China is unaligned considering their rocky history.
 

abc123

Banned
Nationalist China WILL be interested for kicking the French out of SEA- the would probably help to broker a deal between French and Ho Chi Minh...
On the other hand, Nationalist China will definitly NOT be interested for any sort of Communist Vietnam/Indochina.

As Simon said, with Nationalist China butterflies are so strong that any Vietnam War, if it happens at all, will probably be much different than OTL.

Here's my TL, it has parts about Vietnam:

https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=333624
 
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Best I can think of is that China covertly helps support the Vietnamese nationalists against the French with the communists eventually starting to come out on top, not particularly liking this wanting to limit their expansion and avoid having communist states to both their north and south the KMT start pulling their support whilst offering to act as an 'honest broker' for a negotiated peace. Things shake out roughly as in our timeline with Vietnam ending up being split between North and South since it means that the North Vietnamese will have to spend most of their time watching the South rather than potentially making trouble for China. The Chinese civil war ends up with a divided China, there's always the ever popular People's Republic of China based out of Manchuria and the north-eastern half of Inner Mongolia, so that the Nationalists have to keep a watch to the north which precludes them from monkeying around too much with Vietnam. All of which is really pushing things to try and keep the outcomes vaguely similar to our timeline.
 

abc123

Banned
Best I can think of is that China covertly helps support the Vietnamese nationalists against the French with the communists eventually starting to come out on top, not particularly liking this wanting to limit their expansion and avoid having communist states to both their north and south the KMT start pulling their support whilst offering to act as an 'honest broker' for a negotiated peace. Things shake out roughly as in our timeline with Vietnam ending up being split between North and South since it means that the North Vietnamese will have to spend most of their time watching the South rather than potentially making trouble for China. The Chinese civil war ends up with a divided China, there's always the ever popular People's Republic of China based out of Manchuria and the north-eastern half of Inner Mongolia, so that the Nationalists have to keep a watch to the north which precludes them from monkeying around too much with Vietnam. All of which is really pushing things to try and keep the outcomes vaguely similar to our timeline.

But with big difference that communists in N. Vietnam now have no open border with China for delivery of everything needed from Soviet Union/Red China, and USA and China can easily blockade N. Vietnamese ports.
 
Can the OP please elaborate on the existeence of a KMT owned China. How do they still own the country? If they had somehow achieved a total victory over the communists in the Chinese civil war then that's a lot of butterflies that will pass. Please provide us a POD
 
But with big difference that communists in N. Vietnam now have no open border with China for delivery of everything needed from Soviet Union/Red China, and USA and China can easily blockade N. Vietnamese ports.
Would the Americans really be willing to blockade and stop, or potentially sink if they refuse to stop, Soviet ships visiting a sovereign country? They wouldn't even expand the war into Laos outside of covert operations when everyone and their brother knew that the Ho Chi Minh trail was the Viet Cong's main supply route and had to jump through so many hoops when it came to the limited bombing campaign against the North that it sabotage its own effectiveness. The Cuban missile crisis was one thing but I honestly can't see them pushing things that far over Vietnam, at which point does it really matter if the supplies are coming in by Soviet merchantmen or Chinese trains and lorries?
 

abc123

Banned
Would the Americans really be willing to blockade and stop, or potentially sink if they refuse to stop, Soviet ships visiting a sovereign country? They wouldn't even expand the war into Laos outside of covert operations when everyone and their brother knew that the Ho Chi Minh trail was the Viet Cong's main supply route and had to jump through so many hoops when it came to the limited bombing campaign against the North that it sabotage its own effectiveness. The Cuban missile crisis was one thing but I honestly can't see them pushing things that far over Vietnam, at which point does it really matter if the supplies are coming in by Soviet merchantmen or Chinese trains and lorries?

Maybe, but on the other hand, bombing/mining Haiphong Port is much easier than bombing whole Laos/N. Vietnam. Especially with bases in Hainan.

But, I think that without Red China, there even would not be a North Vietnam at all. Ho wouldn't be so strong to get his own country without such big support from China/SU.
 
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If I remember right, Roosevelt offered Kai Shek Indochina after the war was over. Not sure how well that would go for the French. I did not read to much into that affair, but I do know Kai Shek said no. However, in this situation there may be a bit of a deal.

If the Nationalists are strong and hold a good chunk of china together, they may negotiate to invade and occupy the north with the United State's permission and or be allowed to set up a puppet government with SEA under their control.
 
Can the OP please elaborate on the existence of a KMT owned China. How do they still own the country? If they had somehow achieved a total victory over the communists in the Chinese civil war then that's a lot of butterflies that will pass. Please provide us a POD
Perhaps the CCP being unable to escape in the Long March? Or the Kwantung Army surrendering Manchuria to the KMT before the Soviets are able to invade.
 
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Deleted member 1487

If a KMT China then there is not a Vietnam war as we know it. Once the French leave the KMT will ensure its their puppet and Minh will not get support from communists because of lack of supply lines.
 
There is no Vietnam War. The Viet Minh only became dangerous to the French after the KMT lost the war and Mao provided the Communists with lots of support.

Chiang Kai Shek would be supportive of Vietnamese nationalism, but he would not like how Ho and the Vietnamese Communists murdered and killed their Nationalist rivals from 1945-1946.

Ho Chi Minh likely agrees to some accommodation with France and remaining within the French Union as the hopelessness of his position becomes apparent, otherwise his group remains unsupported rebels slowly being destroyed by the French.

Likely, as Chiang consolidates power in a united ROC and begins to build up China, he will use his influence to push France to making more concessions to the Vietnamese nationalists. There is likely a long process where the State of Vietnam achieves greater and greater independence as France concedes more autonomy to Chinese supported non-Communist nationalists.

By the time true independence is achieved, Ho Chi Minh will only be one of many prominent nationalists, and other than residual popular goodwill for his efforts in 1945 and 1946, he will likely not have much influence. The other nationalists will remember how the Communists treated them in 1945-1946 and make sure they do not have any real power.

I expect sometime in the sixties, Vietnam will purge itself of any remaining French colonial control although there may still be various treaties and trade deals tying it to France. Otherwise it will have complete sovereignty domestically and in foreign relations. Most likely the Vietnamese monarchy is retained.
 
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