Vietnam buffs - Do you buy Mark Moyar's theory on Ngo Dinh Diem?

What do you think of Mark Moyar's theory that Ngo Dinh Diem's was winning the war?

  • Moyar's argument is convincing, or mostly convincing

    Votes: 4 30.8%
  • Moyar's argument has little or no credibility

    Votes: 9 69.2%

  • Total voters
    13

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
That he was winning the war until killed?

Background on Mark Moyar and his book at links below:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Moyar

https://www.amazon.com/Triumph-Fors...TF8&qid=1484948213&sr=8-1&keywords=mark+moyar

https://www.amazon.com/Triumph-Revi...riumph+revisited+:+battle+for+the+Vietnam+War

---A follow-on what-if from this is, how long would Diem have lasted in power if the Americans had not turned on him? Is it plausible for him to have lasted into the 1970s, 1980s or 1990s in power in South Vietnam. For reference, he was born in 1901, and was killed at the age of 62, and his father lived to the age of 75 and one of his brothers lived till the age of 87.

In OTL Diem's dictatorship. While they are certainly not unheard of, nonmonarchical dictatorships lasting more than 20 years in the post-WWII world or not very common either. IE, far more dictatorships by an individual don't last 20 years compared with those that do.

If not ousted by the Americans, could Diem have stayed in power for many years even without US ground troops deployed to support him?
 
Nope. Diem had one very big problem - he wasn't very good at ruling. He only became the leader of South Vietnam because nobody else was around to take the job. He gave out all the important jobs to his family or his cronies, which left him with a serious governing issue. He was widely despised among the peasant class, especially fervent Buddhists. His counter-insurgency efforts were a joke. And he had something of a tendency to alienate the Americans as well, which is why they wanted him dead.
South Vietnam was probably doomed from the start but Diem didn't help matters at all. If he lasted past 1963 he'd either be overthrown by another coup or by the North Vietnamese Army marching into Saigon.
 
Diem was not winning the war against communists, Diem was not even fighting the war against communists. According to Bright Shining Lie, Army of the Republic of Vietnam was a tool to maintain his power and was strictly prohibited in risking casualties. Brunt of the fight was carried by regional paramilitary forces which by 1962 were starting to lose against FNL regular units.

Best and the brightest claims that November 1963 coup was initiated because of the pressure from ARVN officer core (colonels), generals were forced to act or face full blown mutiny. Airborne division had allready launched a coup attempt in 1960.
 
Saying Diem will single handly will the war by having him in power is way too far fetched to be true. It's more of a case, Diem being a more credible leader than people are willing to give him. He did have a strong vision nationalistic vision for his nation, he did promote Confucian practices that didn't flourish under French rule and he did have some economic success by building infrastructure and gaining more foreign export to the country. But he did pretty much mess up his land form by placing too much emphasis on the movement of people to new cultivated lands, instead of reforming their old ancestral lands. Moyer probably mixed up his success with dealing isolated Communist cells all over the country than ones directly under the tutelage of Hanoi.

Ho Chi Minh and the North Vietnamese did consider as one of the best adversary that South Vietnam could have, but isn't saying too much judging by the other leaders that South Vietnam had. But South Vietnam didn't have the best tools for governance considering it had to inherit some kind of shaky French style of bureaucracy that wasn't too effective at ruling.
"The consequences of the 1 November coup d'état will be contrary to the calculations of the US imperialists ... Diệm was one of the strongest individuals resisting the people and Communism. Everything that could be done in an attempt to crush the revolution was carried out by Diệm. Diệm was one of the most competent lackeys of the US imperialists ... Among the anti-Communists in South Vietnam or exiled in other countries, no one has sufficient political assets and abilities to cause others to obey. Therefore, the lackey administration cannot be stabilized. The coup d'état on 1 November 1963 will not be the last."


Even today, much maligned Diem still has some good influence in his country. It seems like he managed to start and build the foundation for a several of the biggest colleges/ universities in Vietnam.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
Even today, much maligned Diem still has some good influence in his country. It seems like he managed to start and build the foundation for a several of the biggest colleges/ universities in Vietnam.

The man and his family were educators at heart.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
Is Moyar's argument, and the argument of others who say that eliminating Diem was a vital step in creating the situation that compelled US escalation to ground troops, an example of the post hoc, ergo proper hoc..."after this, therefore because of this" logical fallacy?

As in, even with Diem in power, the US would have been confronted with a dilemma of escalate to ground troops or lose, by 1965, or only a short time later like 1966?
 
Top