Vienna Note Averts Crimean War

The Crimean War was instrumental in changing the political situation in Europe. France became far more aggressive under Napoleon III, Britain left its isolation, Russia and Austria's mutual friendship was shattered, and a great deal of other social and political upheavals hit Europe. There was also great military significance as many of the powers used it as a test run for modern warfare and weapons. Many of the powers met in Vienna to try and come up with a solution to the dilemma of a great war and their solution was the Vienna Note. The note allowed Russia nominal control over some holy areas and made them nominal protector of Orthodox Christians but more importantly the note kept the territorial balance that was still supposedly in place from the Congress of Vienna. The Ottoman Sultan declined the Note and declared war on Russia for invading its territory. Even though the powers (including Russia) signed and pushed for Ottoman agreement, the Sultan felt that the treaty was too vague and prone to future misunderstandings, that it was better to deal with Russia when he had Britain and France backing him, the European powers would be humiliating him and his empire yet again by forcing him to sign a document he had no say in, and that Russia had already made actions warranting a declaration of war. He proposed an amendment that was shot down by Russia effectively ending any real negotiations to end the war.

My question is (as you probably already guessed), what would happen if the Note is signed by the Sultan and the war averted?

Essentially, what would the technological ramifications be on the military?

What of the political situation?

Does the Crimean War just erupt later?

Sardinia gained crucial support during the war helping it with unification so how will this affect both Italian and German unification?

McClellan's career was helped by the Crimean War, what might butterflies be in North America?

Anything else it might do?
 
My question is (as you probably already guessed), what would happen if the Note is signed by the Sultan and the war averted?

Russia would probably look for another reason to go to war a few years later. The Nicholas I didn't name his 2nd born son Konstantin for nothing. The dream of a revived Byzantium ran deep in for these guys and an open Dardanelles and Dominion over the Balkan Slavs was part of the deal.

Essentially, what would the technological ramifications be on the military?

Ironclad ships might need a few more years. Stonework forts stay in vogue slightly longer. Breech loading artillery takes a few more years to develop.

What of the political situation?

Nicholas I probably would live at least a few years longer. Its generally assumed the war had a negative impact on his health and mental condition. The serfs stay serfs a bit longer. Butterflys could include Tsarevich Niks (Alexander II heir) doesn't meet fatal meningitis and eventually becomes Nicholas II. Postponed reforms of Alexander II push the Revolutionary storm back a few years.

Does the Crimean War just erupt later?

Yeah, see above

Sardinia gained crucial support during the war helping it with unification so how will this affect both Italian and German unification?

Eventually both happens, but later.

McClellan's career was helped by the Crimean War, what might butterflies be in North America?

Too fuzzy for me.

Anything else it might do?

Also too fuzzy.
 
It is implausible that many major changes would occur. the note was symptomatic of the crisis state of Europe that led to the Crimean War, not causative. Had the Vienna Note been agreed to Russia would still have started a year in a few years. Also, the Ottomans had good and substantial reasons to disagree with the Vienna note, not the least being national pride. The POD is not likely to avert the Crimean War.
 
Had the Vienna Note been agreed to Russia would still have started a year in a few years.

I think you mean War, not Year.

Also, the Ottomans had good and substantial reasons to disagree with the Vienna note, not the least being national pride.

The Ottoman Sultan was under pressure from Britain, France, Austria, and Russia to sign it. You would think he would have accepted but apparently he thought that it was open to too many interpretations. Since the Note was a blow to Ottoman sovereignty, he decided that the note needed amendments and clarification. Even Lord Startford agreed with him, however Russia was not willing to compromise.

Now the point you bring to attention I agree with, however the thread is assuming that somehow the Vienna note is accepted. Either in its original form by the Sultan or the amended form by the Czar. I am trying to ascertain the possible fate of the region and European diplomacy in that period, and less the likeliness of the POD actually occurring. (If it was likely it would have occurred)

It is implausible that many major changes would occur.

Even if certain events are delayed by a few years they can have major repercussions later. Any POD no matter how insignificant will have butterflies that will ensure major change.

Had the Vienna Note been agreed to Russia would still have started a year in a few years.

Yes, well it may have been a very different war. Plus the allies might not have the Sardinia on their side. In addition an unhappy Austria might get involved. This path could lead to even greater changes to the war.

The POD is not likely to avert the Crimean War.

As I have mentioned before, it may not avert A Crimean War, but it will avert the Crimean War we all know.
 
Effects on Russia

This was actually really important for the Russian military because it taught them that they needed to industrialize to be a power. Despite the fact that the Russians were weak until WWII, they would have been a lot weaker in WWI, so this leads to Germany quickly winning the East Front in WWI and putting all the troops in the West Front.
 
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