Victory in the West, Nazi defeat

If this specific situation has been discussed in the past, can someone please point me to the respetive thread? Many thanks.

On the 24th May 1940 the German, at the advice from General Rundstedt, halted their armored advance into Dunkirk – the terrain around Dunkirk was considered unsuitable for amour, so the destruction of the Allied forces, chiefly the BEF, fell on the shoulders of the Luftwaffe, which was prevented from significant action due to weather conditions.

Now the POD here is that Hitler, while visiting von Rundstedt’s headquarters on May 24 does not follow his advice. Instead he insists that all efforts are done to cut the last possible escape route – the port of Dunkirk and outlying beaches – and that all available means are used to complete the encirclement and destruction of the surrounded Allied forces.

The rest of the Battle of France proceeds, mostly, as in OTL with the Fuhrer touring the streets of Paris. The mentioned POD, however, brings significant differences for the short coming future. The BEF is destroyed with all the manpower either dead, wounded or in captivity. The British moral is shattered by not only the military losses but also by standing now alone against Germany and having lost so many men and equipment in the Continent.

Following the armistice with the French, the Germans extend peace offers to the British which, now led by Churchill, promptly refuse any idea of a peace that will not restore pre-war borders in Europe. The social and moral situation within the UK is, however, much worst than in our TL.

On Germany side things are not all positive also. In spite of the tremendous success they had in the Western Front, the victory in the Dunkirk pocket was a costly one. Too costly in the eyes of the German Generals who think that the bloodshed to destroy the encircled Allied forces was merely a waste of men and materials, namely the precious armored units.

Further more they became appalled when, some weeks later, at a meeting of the Obberkommando der Wehrmacht Hitler’s plans for the future, especially Operation Barbarossa, became clear. The professional career officers of the German Armed Forces pull together and decide that, in spite of all of its successes, Hitler and the Nazi Party will eventually lead to the doom of the Fatherland. Maybe even some civilians, top industrialists that understand that the way the German economy has been driven will eventually come to a crashing halt, join in the conspiracy.

With the failure, like in our TL, of the Battle of Britain, the conspirators decide to act and in a swift move take control of Germany, incarcerating or killing the figure heads of the Nazi Party and dissolving the existing paramilitary structures. A National Salvation Government is formed including both high military officers and high profile non-Nazi civilians. The concentration camps are emptied and closed, the racial laws canceled and those who survived the Coup and are considered criminals are held to face trial. Free elections are scheduled to be held within six months and the main goal of the new government is to obtain peace in Europe.

Now we have a, practically, de-nazified Germany sitting on top of the world: it occupies half of Poland, Denmark, Norway, Belgium, and Holland, Luxembourg and has defeated the Allies in mainland Europe. However the new regime is not keen on proceeding the war and they fear the Bear on their Eastern border.

How do you think things will proceed from here?
 
For one, I believe the immediate result would be a civil war in Germany. The things you propose such as arresting leading figures of Nazi party, would require a lot of planning or seem a lot like hand waving if generals act on impulse.

At that moment Hitler is on the top with popularity in military and civilian circles both. They might possibly get away with accidental death (i.e. British bombing attack), but then it would be hard to justify arrests of all those other peoples.

Aside from those problems, you would need to overcome German generals unwillingness to interfere in civilian issues and their disagreements over that.

And finally, at that particular moment there is not much they can do. To get any sort of peace they would either need to fight on to victory or accept to retreat from France, Denmark, Norway, Low countries and most probably Poland, which is something they will find very hard to swallow. And eventually, the price of Soviet cooperation will come due. They would have to pay up or face total economic collapse. Or attempt to 'settle' the bill.
 
Even if some enlightened ones can predict doom, this is the wrong momentum since success is inebriant. It would be hard to gather so many critical coupers to not only kill Hitler (not that hard) but also seize power (hard) and denazify Germany (almost impossible).

Assuming it happens nonetheless...

Hereabouts one common remark to a Nazi-Germany-suddenly-turned-Democratic is the effects on the occupied countries.
The Nazis were ruthless and only by being ruthless they managed to occupy so many countries at the same time. A Democratic Germany will have a hard time to carry on the military occupation without resorting to their predecessors' methods. If they go soft the populations will fear no more and they shall rise more effectively against their occupiers.

But, really... as Shaby said: a civil war is likely as you simply can't denazify Germany at this point.
 
Thanks for your comments guys.

I do agree that given the momentum if would be very hard, almost impossible to have the type of situation I described. And yes, I also agree that any coup attempt would probably lead to a civil war. Nevertheless I do not agree that it would be impossible to de-Nazify Germany at some precise point in time. Yes at this moment in History they are very popular and riding the wave of success but the truth is that the really Nazis were a rather small part of the population in Germany. The great majority of those that joined the party did so to maintain their jobs and social position (a kind of: if you can’t beat them, join them) and not for really subscribing their warped view of the world.

Anyway, the POD I mentioned (the added casualties of the Battle of Dunkirk both for the Allies and for the Germans) was intended to set up the mood in both sides of the conflict. Accepting that the butterflies arising from such POD will lead to the outcome I described in my initial post – A coup that installs a proto-democratic regime in Germany and takes the Nazis out of the equation – I think we have a rather interesting scenario on the table.

From the side of the Allies there would be different perspectives:

Great Britain – Will not accept a peace without the return to pre-war borders.
France – With whom would Germany talk to? The Government in exile? The Vichy regime? A mix of both?

On the Axis side:

Germany – Will desire peace but will the new government will not be able to accept a reverse of all the gains made during the war – that would definitely lead to a civil war.

Italy – Their big brother ally is not reliable any longer. What will the Duce do?

And than the third party:

Soviet Union – Their dance partner (Germany) as just changed colors. With the possibility of peace in Europe what will happen to the gains SU made in Finland, the Baltic and Poland?
 
Thanks for your comments guys.

I do agree that given the momentum if would be very hard, almost impossible to have the type of situation I described. And yes, I also agree that any coup attempt would probably lead to a civil war. Nevertheless I do not agree that it would be impossible to de-Nazify Germany at some precise point in time. Yes at this moment in History they are very popular and riding the wave of success but the truth is that the really Nazis were a rather small part of the population in Germany. The great majority of those that joined the party did so to maintain their jobs and social position (a kind of: if you can’t beat them, join them) and not for really subscribing their warped view of the world.

Anyway, the POD I mentioned (the added casualties of the Battle of Dunkirk both for the Allies and for the Germans) was intended to set up the mood in both sides of the conflict. Accepting that the butterflies arising from such POD will lead to the outcome I described in my initial post – A coup that installs a proto-democratic regime in Germany and takes the Nazis out of the equation – I think we have a rather interesting scenario on the table.
There are quite a lot of WW2 buffs around here and I'm not one of them. But I'm not so confident that the scenario that you describe raises so many alarms amongst so many critical Germans. Amongst some key military men, perhaps...
You have heavier casualties - but then again - you have wiped out the British expeditionary force from the face of the Earth. If that's causing some mood changes in Germany, in relation to OTL, I think it will create even more enthusiasm.
"We're invicible! We lost a lot of men and equipment but it was worth of it. One's gotta spend money to make money: we've crushed the British and French armies and half of Europe is in our hands! All that thanks to the sage leadership of the Führer! I'm sure that if he wants to grab the other half of Europe he'll find a way! Sieg heil!" and all that.

It would be a massive undertaking to denazify the country up to the point that there are no serious countercoups and armed uprisings. It's true what you say about "Nazis of convenience" but you must also notice that the German people were fed with a lot of BS for almost a decade and a lot of that is hard to unlearn. There are true Nazis and at least sympathizers everywhere. The standard of living has improved and the glory of a recently humiliated Germany was just restored in a spectacular form.

So... as you wrote, it's almost impossible but let's go with it.

From the side of the Allies there would be different perspectives:

Great Britain – Will not accept a peace without the return to pre-war borders.

Britan will not concede an inch if there's the perception that Dunkirk was as Pyhrric as you described. It will be wise to do that, specially if there's a civil war going on in Germany and the occupied countries are getting restless.

France – With whom would Germany talk to? The Government in exile? The Vichy regime? A mix of both?
Putting aside a few nitpicks, Vichy France was France. I wonder how less radically right-wing this ATL Vichy regime will be now that it's a puppet of a non-Nazi Germany.

On the Axis side:

Germany – Will desire peace but will the new government will not be able to accept a reverse of all the gains made during the war – that would definitely lead to a civil war.
It's not going to end well to Germany and Nazism will be fondly remembered :/

Italy – Their big brother ally is not reliable any longer. What will the Duce do?
If Mussolini supports a Nazi uprising in Germany now that's a problem.

And than the third party:

Soviet Union – Their dance partner (Germany) as just changed colors. With the possibility of peace in Europe what will happen to the gains SU made in Finland, the Baltic and Poland?
Grabbers keepers.
So they've got their share of the spoils and their partner of convenience is fragilized? Yummy! Stalin is a careful dude though. Going for All-Poland or All-Finland would anger the Allies so perhaps he'll just be content with what he has.
 
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