So, doing some research for a timeline idea I've got floating around, and I was wondering, just what would it take for the Carlists to win the first Carlist war, and what consequences could this have for Spain and her colonies?
From what I know of the Carlists, they were very pro-hapsburg, Very Conservative people. I think any Liberal development that occurred from the reign of previous monarchs (excluding Carlos IV) would be scrapped and liberals would be arrested and executed. This could to a Liberal Revolution which would cause all kinds of butterflies in Europe.
For the colonies, I doubt they would be able to hold them and in fact, I think they would lose them earlier to either France, GB, the USA, or Independence. Reason is because the colonies would need Liberal reforms, reforms Carlos V would not budge on.
So most likely, the Spanish empire might fall quicker and Spain itself is in chaos
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Alright intriguing, thanks for this. Would Charles V have much support do you think internally, should some form of civil war happen?
By the conservatives and some moderate circles, yes, but those who are leaning Liberal would probably be against him. In a time like that, I wouldn't be surprised to see a coup happening from moderates creating a republic, however short lived it is.
Alright intriguing. I wonder, how might one stem the tide of liberalism in the sense of constitutional monarchy being seen as the norm and not an aberration
Any monarch enforced on Spain will be deeply unpopular unless 1) they are willing to do Liberal reforms. 2) give up all powers to the Parliament. 3) leave once the Nation was stable.
Reason for this is I doubt a very Liberal republic would crown a king just after over throwing the previous one. Even the glorious revolution took some pushing and ended with Alfonso XIII being a somewhat limited king. It took all major factions agreeing and even then, the conservatives were iffy.
So unless the next monarch would be listening to Liberal demands more than conservative ones, they would not be supported and even then, we could see a second carlist war
In reality, if the first carlist war was successful, Spain would be in chaos until either the death of the Spanish hapsburg branch or a very Liberal monarch is crowned king.
Intriguing, you don't think that eventually liberal elements could be rooted out of the system?
The violent elements can be rooted out, but once a republic has been tasted, the people will refuse little else. Just ask France in the XIX Century
True enough, and if no republic ever happens?
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