Victor Amadeus of Savoy inherits Spain

something I came across during my research is that Victor Amadeus, Duke of Savoy and the first king of Sardinia, was floated as a possible match for Maria Antonina of Austria, heiress to Charles II, last Habsburg king of Spain. So let's say the marriage went through and when Charles is on his deathbed Victor Amadeus and his wife have a son as the legally acknowledged heir....

Now neither France nor Austria are likely to accept a unilateral inheritance. OTL Maria Antoninas son by the elector Maximilian of Bavaria, Joseph Ferdinand, was acknowledged heir to spain by England and France, while the Bourbons were promised Naples and Austria Milan. Even this is unworkable as neither Austria nor spain intend to allow this, notably the Austrians tried to claim the spanish throne unsuccessfully despite their british allies refusing to endorse it. Still the Savoy have a strong claim and interest.

So what's the outcome here? Let's say for example that the powers agree to a compromise, and hammer out a deal like they did at the Hague- the Savoy inherit (could it be a Maria Theresa situation, where the house is known as Habsburg-Savoy?) at least Milan, Spain and Sardinia and probably Sicily too, the bourbons get Naples. Austria won't want the netherlands and britain won't want France to have it, and I can see the Savoy ceding it to fend off French claims in Italy (Savoy proper and or Nice); maybe as a compromise the Wittelsbachs swap it for Bavaria, and we get a bourbon wittelsbach match.

Of course if VE gets Spain and the Italian territories that could give Italian unification a big leg up as thats a big chunk of the peninsula under one ruler- Piedmont, Milan, Sardinia, and both sicilies plus Finale and thrle Praesidium. All that's left is Tuscany, Venice, Papal states and a couple minors (Mantua, Genoa, Lucca, Modena, Parma).
 
Was talking with @VVD0D95 about just such a situation a few days ago.

Likely Savoy gets ceded to France (à la Lorraine in the London, Hague Partition Treaties) in exchange for France recognizing the succession.
Milan goes to Austria, Naples/Tuscany is the Bourbon secundogeniture or offered to the duke of Lorraine (and France annexes Lorraine).

France plus Savoie and Lorraine, and a secundogeniture in Italy, is likely happy-ish. Austria getting Milan (which they would've anyway), maybe Naples (if Lorraine takes the Southern Netherlands instead) makes them happy.

Key point here is that Louis XIV never ACTUALLY contested Margarita Teresa/Maria Antonia's right to rule/inherit. His actions of claiming the whole thing in 1700 were when his son/grandson were the best heirs when Margarita's line was extinct and the Habsburg candidate had a WEAKER claim. If Leopold has a legitimate grandson, (OTL) Karl VI's claim is even more of a joke.
 
Was talking with @VVD0D95 about just such a situation a few days ago.

Likely Savoy gets ceded to France (à la Lorraine in the London, Hague Partition Treaties) in exchange for France recognizing the succession.
Milan goes to Austria, Naples/Tuscany is the Bourbon secundogeniture or offered to the duke of Lorraine (and France annexes Lorraine).

France plus Savoie and Lorraine, and a secundogeniture in Italy, is likely happy-ish. Austria getting Milan (which they would've anyway), maybe Naples (if Lorraine takes the Southern Netherlands instead) makes them happy.

Key point here is that Louis XIV never ACTUALLY contested Margarita Teresa/Maria Antonia's right to rule/inherit. His actions of claiming the whole thing in 1700 were when his son/grandson were the best heirs when Margarita's line was extinct and the Habsburg candidate had a WEAKER claim. If Leopold has a legitimate grandson, (OTL) Karl VI's claim is even more of a joke.
Spot on.
Britain wanted a partition. France claimed to want a partition, until MA's line went extinct (odds of this actually being true probably change daily). Spain obviously was opposed. OTL, Austria opposed partition no matter who the candidate was, but also claimed Karl VI as the heir based on MA signing over her rights on her deathbed, excluding her son.
I believe Savoy had a weak claim on the throne, and it is only through that claim that the house of Savoy would inherit Spain. Otherwise, per the OP, MA (or her son) would inherit. VA might do the actual ruling, but the throne would belong to MA/son. VA would probably jump for joy, and happily give up Savoy to gain Spain.

France might be more willing to accept a partition if they were gaining Savoy, permanent recognition of possession of Lorraine, and an Italian kingdom or two. They wanted Milan, but that is a very tough sell for Austria. Britain and the Dutch Republic will not accept French possession of Spanish Netherlands, and France likely is not going to be too happy with Austria getting it.

Ultimately, though, France and Britain can hammer out an agreement if they're so inclined. Savoy will speak loudly and pretend it is part of the negotiations, but the deal really hinges on France/Britain. Spain (Carlos II) will squawk about being partitioned and will the whole thing to someone. That will is going to be ignored by F/B if it is willed to Karl or MA/son/VA. If it's willed to Phillip as OTL while MA/Son is alive, it's hard to say if Louis uses his brain, or if he (as OTL) gets greedy/stupid.

Austria is likely to oppose any partition, but ultimately will have to accept it or go to war without Britain/Dutch (presuming the partition satisfactorily settles the Netherlands question). France will win that war with relative ease.

France
 
As a curve ball, is it possible that VA throws Spain to Austria in return for Milan? Let's say Milan, Parma, and the crown of lombardy to VA, the bourbons put a cadet line in Belgium, and the Habsburgs get spain and the two sicilies or at least sicily proper.

Savoy is going to put a lot of weight on gaining Milan, and Austria alone IMHO can't force her hands if France and/or Britain back him. The french apparently pitched a deal swapping nice and savoy for the two Sicilies and Milan for lorraine so VA could get more than just Spain for savoy IMHO.
 

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Was talking with @VVD0D95 about just such a situation a few days ago.

Likely Savoy gets ceded to France (à la Lorraine in the London, Hague Partition Treaties) in exchange for France recognizing the succession.
Milan goes to Austria, Naples/Tuscany is the Bourbon secundogeniture or offered to the duke of Lorraine (and France annexes Lorraine).

France plus Savoie and Lorraine, and a secundogeniture in Italy, is likely happy-ish. Austria getting Milan (which they would've anyway), maybe Naples (if Lorraine takes the Southern Netherlands instead) makes them happy.

Key point here is that Louis XIV never ACTUALLY contested Margarita Teresa/Maria Antonia's right to rule/inherit. His actions of claiming the whole thing in 1700 were when his son/grandson were the best heirs when Margarita's line was extinct and the Habsburg candidate had a WEAKER claim. If Leopold has a legitimate grandson, (OTL) Karl VI's claim is even more of a joke.
This French Savoy- Austrian Milan gives Austria and France a fairly lengthy common border.
 
VA could get more than just Spain for savoy IMHO.
How so?
IIRC, the colonies were always attached to Spain. No one really minded if Spanish Netherlands stayed with Spain, so unless they were needed to complete the French Lorraine takeover (compensation to House of Lorraine), they go with Spain. That, IMO, is the big prize, and the rest a poor 2nd/3rd slice of the pie.

OTL, VA was willing to swap half the Savoy lands for a big chunk of Milan, so he could build his 'empire' there. Here, he's given a much grander land to rule, and isn't going to risk losing out by holding out for a duchy both France and Austria want.
 
The Netherlands were IMO the least valuable part of the Spanish Empire, being a classic white elephant- too much trouble to hold, let alone govern, to be worth it. It's more likely than not that VA would try to gain a bigger part of the Italian territories (say ceding Nice and Savoy to gain the Two Sicilies) than fight for Belgium. Hence my suggestion that we could see a lorraine style deal, such as Austria gaining the netherlands then swapping them for Bavaria. That would, I think. be acceptable to all three major powers.

I think the bigger butterfly, beyond Savoy having a higher prominence and subsequent knock on effects for Italy, would be if Spain retains a degree of power into the 18th century. Spain's decline was not foreordained, at least not to the degree that happened OTL, and the Savoy of the period were on the whole more competent than the spanish Bourbons. If the Austrian succession crisis still triggers that could potentially see Austrias position collapse entirely- they were fairly close to falling apart OTL. I could see Maria Theresa losing Milan as well as Silesia in the 18th century. The Spanish are also quite likely to gain Corsica over France.
 
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Wait a moment: Milan is the only land who Maria Antonia CAN NOT legitimately inherit and that would go to Austria or at least back to the Emperor to be assigned again
 
How so? Is that imperial rule?
That and also it was under semi Salic law no?
Milan was part of the Holy Roman Empire and once the Duchy remained vacant, after the extinction of the Sforzas main line, it was assigned to the future Philip II of Spain by his father, the Holy Emperor Karl V and I strongly suspect that assignation was in male line only as happened with mpost of the lands in the Empire
 
I strongly suspect that assignation was in male line only as happened with mpost of the lands in the Empire
Not necessarily: many families had "house rules" for succession and also for division of inheritance (and two branches of the same house might have different rules from each other: for example, the Ernestine and the Albertine branches of the Wittelsbach).
There is also the example of the Spanish Netherlands: Philip II assigned them to his beloved daughter Isabella Clara Eugenia, on condition that she marry her cousin Archduke Albert. The succession was male-preference cognatic primogeniture, with the condition that if a woman inherited, her husband should need the approval of the king of Spain to marry. Since Isabella and Albert did not have surviving children, the Netherlands reverted to the Crown of Spain on the death of Albert (but Isabella continued to rule them).
 
Not necessarily: many families had "house rules" for succession and also for division of inheritance (and two branches of the same house might have different rules from each other: for example, the Ernestine and the Albertine branches of the Wittelsbach).
There is also the example of the Spanish Netherlands: Philip II assigned them to his beloved daughter Isabella Clara Eugenia, on condition that she marry her cousin Archduke Albert. The succession was male-preference cognatic primogeniture, with the condition that if a woman inherited, her husband should need the approval of the king of Spain to marry. Since Isabella and Albert did not have surviving children, the Netherlands reverted to the Crown of Spain on the death of Albert (but Isabella continued to rule them).
I know that. Burgundy/Netherlands and Spain (before the Bourbon) were lands inheritable in female line but I doubt who the imperial investitures of Milan for both Ludovico Sforza and Philip II of Spain had provisions who consented a female inheritance
 
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