Vickers VC-7 in RAF service

[Riain]

It was too late to cancel the Hercules purchase. They were already being delivered.

When was the Herc ordered? IIUC it was ordered before the Feb 66 White Paper, certainly before the July 67 decision to withdraw from East of Suez.

If instead the Government ordered 30 or more Belfasts this would push the decision point for the Herc back far enough that the thinking around the White Paper in late 65 will influence it. If it is pushed back towards mid 67 then I doubt the Herc would be bought in the 60s at all. I think the Argosy would retained, perhaps reducing to 4 or so sqns to extend the service life into the 70s.

 

[Archibald]

Looks like the Hercules were ordered in 1965 and the first was delivered in December 1966.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

When was the Herc ordered? IIUC it was ordered before the Feb 66 White Paper, certainly before the July 67 decision to withdraw from East of Suez.

I don't know the exact date, but as @Archibald wrote it was sometime in 1965. Or more specifically sometime after February 1965 because that is when the HS.681 was cancelled and the Hercules was the substitute for the HS.681.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

If instead the Government ordered 30 or more Belfasts this would push the decision point for the Herc back far enough that the thinking around the White Paper in late 65 will influence it. If it is pushed back towards mid 67 then I doubt the Herc would be bought in the 60s at all. I think the Argosy would retained, perhaps reducing to 4 or so sqns to extend the service life into the 70s.

That won't work.

The Hercules and HS.681 were tactical transport aircraft and were to fill Air Staff Operational Requirement (O.R. for short) 351 for an aircraft to replace the Hastings and Beverley in the Long Range Transport role. The Belfast (and the Comet, Britannia, VC.7 and VC.10) were strategic transports.

That's why I suggested building 30 Belfasts as originally planned and using the 20 extra aircraft to replace the Britannia in Nos. 99 and 511 Squadrons.

 

[Riain]

That won't work.

The Hercules and HS.681 were tactical transport aircraft and were to fill Air Staff Operational Requirement (O.R. for short) 351 for an aircraft to replace the Hastings and Beverley in the Long Range Transport role. The Belfast (and the Comet, Britannia, VC.7 and VC.10) were strategic transports.

That's why I suggested building 30 Belfasts as originally planned and using the 20 extra aircraft to replace the Britannia in Nos. 99 and 511 Squadrons.

Why does the 1960 OR 351 that lead to the Herc get precedence over the later ASR 371 that lead to the Belfast? ASR371 envisaged 30 aircraft but was cut, why can't the far more ambitious and unlikely to be realised due yo the VTOL requirement OR351 be cut instead? After all between 1960 and 1965 the OR was watered down and down until in 1965 the Herc was selected.

 

[adenmarcher]

Why does the 1960 OR 351 that lead to the Herc get precedence over the later ASR 371 that lead to the Belfast? ASR371 envisaged 30 aircraft but was cut, why can't the far more ambitious and unlikely to be realised due yo the VTOL requirement OR351 be cut instead? After all between 1960 and 1965 the OR was watered down and down until in 1965 the Herc was selected.

The Air Staff only wanted 10 Belfast , Shorts intended to build an additional 20 aircraft for the civilian market thus giving rise to the often quoted figure of 30. As Riain said in post #45 the Belfast was a strategic transport with no rough field capability & if designed as such would have been a very different & expensive aircraft . The strategic transport was intended to fly to a mounting base where the cargo would be transferred to tactical transports which would fly to a forward base.

 

[Crowbar Six]

The Belfast was also very slow compared to its contemporaries earning the nickname Belslow in RAF service.

 

[Riain]

The Air Staff only wanted 10 Belfast , Shorts intended to build an additional 20 aircraft for the civilian market thus giving rise to the often quoted figure of 30. As Riain said in post #45 the Belfast was a strategic transport with no rough field capability & if designed as such would have been a very different & expensive aircraft . The strategic transport was intended to fly to a mounting base where the cargo would be transferred to tactical transports which would fly to a forward base.

As I understand it the requirement was for 30 but the sterling crisis of 1965 caused the initial order to be reduced to 10. Given Shorts had calculated 30 as the break even point that makes sense.

In Feb the same year the (expensive ) AW/HS681 development was cancelled and the Hercules was selected under some controversy to (not) meet the OR 351.

Edit: How does the Sterling crisis 1964-67 effect buying aircraft? Does it become more important to buy home made aircraft, or does the bad exchange rate make buying US aircraft particularly attractive?

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

As I understand it the requirement was for 30 but the sterling crisis of 1965 caused the initial order to be reduced to 10. Given Shorts had calculated 30 as the break even point that makes sense.

In Feb the same year the (expensive ) AW/HS681 development was cancelled and the Hercules was selected under some controversy to (not) meet the OR 351.

Edit: How does the Sterling crisis 1964-67 effect buying aircraft? Does it become more important to buy home made aircraft, or does the bad exchange rate make buying US aircraft particularly attractive?

I thought the Sterling Crisis was in the aftermath of the Six Day War of 1967 and the closing of the Suez Canal. That must have contributed to the cost increases that led to the cancellation of the F-111K. It probably contributed to the cost increases in the Spey-Phantom. Some of the Phantoms ordered were also cancelled. However, none of the Hercules that got as far as receiving serial numbers were cancelled. In fact after the initial 48 ordered in 1965 another 18 were ordered later. However, I don't know if more were planned, but not ordered because of the Sterling Crisis.

 

[Riain]

I thought the Sterling Crisis was in the aftermath of the Six Day War of 1967 and the closing of the Suez Canal. That must have contributed to the cost increases that led to the cancellation of the F-111K. It probably contributed to the cost increases in the Spey-Phantom. Some of the Phantoms ordered were also cancelled. However, none of the Hercules that got as far as receiving serial numbers were cancelled. In fact after the initial 48 ordered in 1965 another 18 were ordered later. However, I don't know if more were planned, but not ordered because of the Sterling Crisis.

The 67 Sterling crisis was the straw that broke the camels back and lead to devaluation, the break up of the sterling area when Australia (and I imagine others) didn't devalue their pound(s) as well and the acceleration of the withdrawal East of Suez.

But there was another sterling crisis in late 64 where devaluation might and perhaps should have occurred but didn't for various political reasons, including a belief in a world role. However in 1965 Britain cancelled the AW681 and P1154 in Feb, the TSR2 in April, raised taxes and then secured a $1.4 billion loan from the IMF July. I don't know exactly when the plan for 30 Belfasts was dropped to an order for 10, but I'm pretty sure it was in this timeframe, the Herc order was placed somewhere in 1965 as well.

I can't help but think a reasonable course of action could be to buy 30 domestically produced Belfasts with pounds and retain the Argosy for a few more years until the sterling crisis had passed; after all, accepting the Herc meant abandoning the VTOL requirement that drove NMBR4-OR351 in the first place.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

But there was another sterling crisis in late 64 where devaluation might and perhaps should have occurred but didn't for various political reasons, including a belief in a world role. However in 1965 Britain cancelled the AW681 and P1154 in Feb, the TSR2 in April, raised taxes and then secured a $1.4 billion loan from the IMF July. I don't know exactly when the plan for 30 Belfasts was dropped to an order for 10, but I'm pretty sure it was in this timeframe, the Herc order was placed somewhere in 1965 as well.

I scanned National Archives File AIR20/11708 when I was there in December 2014. This contains the Air Ministry file for Plan P which was open from November 1963 to 14th March 1966.

12 of the 66 pages in the file are the projected squadron patterns for the period 31st March 1964 to 31st March 1975 at 6th March 1964. The last 2 pages of that contain the "AIR MINISTRY REQUIREMENTS - New and modified aircraft needed to maintain Defence Costing 1964 Squadron Patterns. Marks of aircraft of which delivery has been completed are not included"

These are some of the aircraft to be delivered between 1st April 1964 and 31st March 1975

50 Orion/Atlantic (including 5 for M.O.T.U. and 2 for A.S.W.D.U.)
10 Belfast C.1
? Crane Lift Helicopter
70 Helicopter Air Transportable
62 H.S.681A (includes 6 aircraft for an O.C.U.)
31 H.S.748M/F (no provision for a permanent training unit)
? O.R.357 (ultimate size and duration of the force has not yet been decided)
164 P.1154
? Short Range Transport V.T.O.L.
4 Strategic Transport Replacement
193 T.S.R.2
14 V.C.10​

So the decision to cut the order for Belfasts from 30 to 10 must have been taken before 6th March 1964.

Unfortunately I have been unable to find any documents on Plans M, N and O that fill the gap between Plans L and P at the National Archives.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

I can't help but think a reasonable course of action could be to buy 30 domestically produced Belfasts with pounds and retain the Argosy for a few more years until the sterling crisis had passed; after all, accepting the Herc meant abandoning the VTOL requirement that drove NMBR4-OR351 in the first place.

The same plan that I referred to in my last post showed that the HS.681 was to replace all but one of the Argossy squadrons by 31st March 1975 as well as the Hastings and Beverley. On that date there were to be 52 H.S.681s in 7 squadrons as follows:

26 in 3 squadrons in Transport Command
12 in 2 squadrons in Air Forces Middle East
14 in 2 squadrons in Far East Air Force​

There was also to have been one squadron of 6 Argossies in Near East Air Force.

One of BAC's submissions to meet OR.351 was the BAC.222 which was a licence built Hercules with Tyne engines. With a POD of the early 1960s I think with hindsight that the RAF should have gone for that.

However, with the Clyde and Theseus available from about 1950, the Proteus available in the second half of the 1950s and the Orion and Tyne available from about 1960 I think the RAF aught to have had much better for transport aircraft than it did in the 1950s. In particular I think that there should have been a Proteus powered analogue of the C-130A Hercules in place of the Beverley and a Mk 2 version with Orion or Tyne engines equivalent to the C-130B Hercules in place of the Argossy. With about 100 of them built instead of the Beverley and Argossy there wouldn't be a need for O.R.351. Which means the money spent on the H.S.681 and C-130K could be spent on something else.

 

[Just Leo]

Unfortunately I have been unable to find any documents on Plans M, N and O that fill the gap between Plans L and P at the National Archives.

First of all, what a fun life you must live.
Next, are Air Ministry Plans at all related to Air Ministry Schemes? There were Schemes L & M in wartime, and there were excluded letters, and they were never completed and often altered for various reasons, political, economic, or Oh, look, a castle.

 

[Riain]

I scanned National Archives File AIR20/11708 when I was there in December 2014. This contains the Air Ministry file for Plan P which was open from November 1963 to 14th March 1966.

12 of the 66 pages in the file are the projected squadron patterns for the period 31st March 1964 to 31st March 1975 at 6th March 1964. The last 2 pages of that contain the "AIR MINISTRY REQUIREMENTS - New and modified aircraft needed to maintain Defence Costing 1964 Squadron Patterns. Marks of aircraft of which delivery has been completed are not included"

These are some of the aircraft to be delivered between 1st April 1964 and 31st March 1975

50 Orion/Atlantic (including 5 for M.O.T.U. and 2 for A.S.W.D.U.)
10 Belfast C.1
? Crane Lift Helicopter
70 Helicopter Air Transportable
62 H.S.681A (includes 6 aircraft for an O.C.U.)
31 H.S.748M/F (no provision for a permanent training unit)
? O.R.357 (ultimate size and duration of the force has not yet been decided)
164 P.1154
? Short Rage Transport V.T.O.L.
4 Strategic Transport Replacement
193 T.S.R.2
14 V.C.10​

So the decision to cut the order for Belfasts from 30 to 10 must have been taken before 6th March 1964.

Unfortunately I have been unable to find any documents on Plans M, N and O that fill the gap between Plans L and P at the National Archives.

That's a pretty strange list;

• 50 Orion/Atlantic but also an unstated number of OR.357 that became the (46) Nimrods
• 10 Belfast, 14 VC10 but also 4 strategic transport replacement
• 62 HS.681A but also an unstated number of Short Range Transport VTOL, which was the spec the HS.681 was designed for

The book that said the Belfast was cut said it was due to the late 64-early 65 sterling crisis, not early 64, but I'm working from unreliable evidence and conjecture rather than official documents so bow to better evidence.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

That's a pretty strange list;

• 50 Orion/Atlantic but also an unstated number of OR.357 that became the (46) Nimrods
• 10 Belfast, 14 VC10 but also 4 strategic transport replacement
• 62 HS.681A but also an unstated number of Short Range Transport VTOL, which was the spec the HS.681 was designed for

The book that said the Belfast was cut said it was due to the late 64-early 65 sterling crisis, not early 64, but I'm working from unreliable evidence and conjecture rather than official documents so bow to better evidence.

I thought the Orion/Atlantic and OR.357 was strange myself.

However, in these documents the H.S.681, Argossy, Beverley and Hastings are referred to as Medium Range Transports (MRT). The Andover is referred to as a Short Range Transport (SRT) and the SRT VTOL was to replace the Andover in the middle of the 1970s.

The Strategic Transport Replacement was to replace the Britannia. The table on Transport Command shows 21 Britannias on 31st March 1974 but on 31st March 1975 there were to be 15 Britannias and 4 Strategic Transport Replacements. Shorts proposed a Britannia fuselage married to the C-141 wing and tail surfaces and powered by 4 RB.178 engines to meet this requirement. However, it looks as if the RAF wanted the C-5A Galaxy from some other documents that I have.

 

[Riain]

I'm looking at NBMR4 & 22 that spawned this lunacy. I think I can lump the VTOL transport into the stupid 60s aviation fads with the supersonic VTOL fighter, swing wings, supersonic trainers and deleting guns in fighters.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

Unfortunately I have been unable to find any documents on Plans M, N and O that fill the gap between Plans L and P at the National Archives.

Next, are Air Ministry Plans at all related to Air Ministry Schemes?

No they weren't. Is the short answer.

For one thing the pre-war Schemes A to M (prepared 1934-38) were expansion schemes. The post war Plans A to Q (prepared from the middle 1940s to the late 1960s) were effectively contraction schemes because they usually were a downward revision of the strength of the RAF.

What I meant was that I could not find anything between the 27th September 1957 version of Plan L (AIR20/214707/30150) covering the period from 30/06/1957 to 31/03/1963.

And

The 6th March 1964 version of Plan P (AIR20/11708/68770) which covered the period from 31/03/1964 to 31/03/1975. The first page of Plan P says there was a Plan O which was in force from 1960 to 1963. Plan O is likely to be the one with 30 Belfasts in it, if that was ever the plan.

 

[Just Leo]

No they weren't. Is the short answer.

Sorry. My mind's gang aft agley.

 

[Riain]

I'm still thinking about this, the problem as I see it was that not enough Belfasts were purchased and too many Andovers and Hercules and a 2 aircraft fleet would suit the RAFs transition to a European NATO role better. I'm prejudiced against the Herc for the RAF because it proved to be too small and too short ranged for the RAF, 30 Belfasts in 3 sqns would be able to take on the OTL tasks of 53sqn plus 2 OTL Herc sqns on longer/heaqvier missions, the sort that the RAF stretched 30 C130Ks to do.

I was leaning toward the Transall C160, but on closer look it is virtually the same as the Herc, so isn't going to cover the shorter, lighter Herc tasks and the Andover tasks. Perhaps something like the G222 or DHC5 Buffalo, they have STOL characteristics and their 19,000lb and 18,000lb payloads are greater than the 14,000lbs of the Andover. The Buffalo, like the Andover, is available in 1965 but the G222 was fitted with RR Tyne engines so might be better despite not being available until 1970, 5 years later.

 

[Just Leo]

the G222 was fitted with RR Tyne engines

Only G.222s bound for Libya were fitted with Tynes because the GE T-64s were embargoed by the US.