Vichy France join the Axis 1940
- Thread starter walmart
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It's was a small news piece regarding the finding of new documents.
I have the magazines currently stored, but I'll try and locate it when I can. Until then, this reference may show on a web search. I'll look it up.
The important thing isn't what happens with the Poles themselves; it's what their French employers do. They can tell the Germans "We were reading your mail." GQG files would have hundreds of decrypted messages.
thaddeus
Donor
if they don't capture the cryptographers and some of the handlers? it might lead to some misdirection since they would know messages being read?
thaddeus
Donor
IF Germany pursued expanded cooperation with Vichy regime it would likely be at the expense of Japan and Italy designs (on French territories.)
and the most they could gain from the French would be clandestine aid, allowing u-boats to be resupplied across their global ports?
The source I read about the Poles fate hinted the French radio intercept section were all rabid anti Germans. What the truth is I don't know. The section was hidden inside a unit known to the Germans, that was searching out and locating illegal radio transmissions in France.
If the French system was anything like the Brit ENIGMA system there would be no copies of messages outside the decrypt facility. Everyone up to Ike and Churchill received summaries, which were read and then destroyed. If they wanted to read actual messages it was easiest to travel to Bletchley Park. This was, and is fairly common security for signals intercepts. You don't leave the enemies intercepted mail lying about in multiple copies. Often the actual message is near gibberish since it is very brief and context is excluded. The recipient knows what it refers to. So after translation analysts need to place the message with some background material, even if only a phrase or two, for context. Otherwise Ike or Churchill have to waste their time figuring it out for themselves, time which they wouldn't have. Thats what the analysts are for.
The British system was developed as the war progressed. The PoD is in July 1940, a little over three months from the first real-time decrypts. During that period the British were very much groping about how to handle and use ULTRA. I can't imagine the French were better off.
Quite so. A message from a Luftwaffe base might take the form of thirty or forty number pairs, where the first numbers in the pairs are in ascending order, in scattered groups between 1 and 100, while the second numbers in the pairs are all over the place. Meaningless, unless you know it's a report, where the first numbers are field IDs and the second numbers are field values. I.e.:
25 169 (fighter missions flown)
26 11 (fighters lost)
27 14 (fighters damaged)
This seems to assume neither had handled high level intel, message intercepts, ect... previously. The concept of protecting the source was well in place.
It assumes nothing. It is based on my fairly extensive reading the subject of Enigma and ULTRA. The British system of a "Special Liaison Unit" attached to each HQ which received ULTRA was created by F. W. Winterbotham in late 1940. Before that, the British had various ad hoc procedures. To be sure, they were concerned about protecting the source. In some ways they were even more protective than later; British commanders were not told the source of the intelligence, only that it came from an absolutely trustworthy source named BONIFACE. (This didn't work. BONIFACE sounded like an agent's code name, and the commanders thought, "Well, they say BONIFACE is completely reliable, but I don't believe they can know that", so they discounted it.)
I don't know what the French did in the brief period between the break into Enigma and the capitulation. AFAIK there are no books in English about it. The fact of the break was I am sure kept close within the French intelligence community. But how close? I find it very hard to believe that the political government (Third Republic and Vichy) had no knowledge of what their intelligence agency was doing.
However, I find it plausible that some in Vichy might have known, but chose not to inform the Germans. Vichy was not so much pro-German as pro-nobody else. They expected Germany to win, but they didn't care one way or another. Having access to German messages was an advantage for France they would not want to give up.
They wouldn't be fighting for Germany so much as as fighting against the perfidious British, who had treacherously attacked France. Vichy forces fought quite hard against British forces in West Africa (defeating two attempts to seize Dakar) and Syria (holding out for about a month of stiff fighting). Those were all defensive actions, though. Attacking the British would be more demanding.
Vichy resistance in North Africa collapsed quickly, but there they were fighting US forces. This avoided the hostility to Britain; also the US was obviously much stronger, so resistance was riskier. And of course Darlan gave "official" imprimatur to switching sides.
In 1940 - there would be some degree of shift toward Free France. Some colonies would flip, but I have little idea which.
France's American colonies remained under Vichy control till after TORCH. That was enforced by the US as a corollary of the Monroe Doctrine; at least, the US prevented Free Franch or British forces from seizing control. (The Free French did grab St. Pierre and Miquelon, but the US made them give it back.)
ITTL, Vichy France is a belligerent, and the US would not block British/Free French operations to take all the American colonies.
The British would also have to take Madagascar and Syria, and possibly French Indochina. However, that last could not happen till late 1940 or 1941, and by then Japan might have moved in. That would be weird: a neutral country occupying part of a belligerent's territory with that country's consent.
This is a link to a webpage about the French Empire in World War II.
http://www.worldatwar.net/timeline/france/empire40-45.html
It looks as if the following French colonies had gone over to the Free French by the end of 1940 IOTL
French Equatorial Africa
French Polynesia
French India
New Caledonia
Furthermore, the Vichy Government had to replace the governors of French Somaliland and French Indo-China because they refused to accept the Armistice. And in July, 1940, in Upper Volta (part of French West Africa), "The colony’s chief administrator Louveau is imprisoned on orders of Boisson after issuing proclamation of adhesion to Free France."French Polynesia
French India
New Caledonia
In September, 1940 the Vichy Government sent a squadron of six cruisers from Toulon to restore control in French Equatorial Africa. It passed Gibraltar without interference from the British. However, it was later intercepted by (John) Cunningham who ordered them to Cassablanca. Two complied but the others went to Dakar.
Also in September, 1940,
"St Pierra & Miquelon - Sep-14-1940 St.Pierre - the Ex-Servicemen’s General Assembly of Saint Pierre and Miquelon announces its support for DeGaulle. British Foreign Office sends note to Ottawa urging the Canadian government to support the movement. Canadians decline to act and the islands Vichy governor dissolves the veterans league."
Then in December, 1941
"St Pierre & Miquelon - Dec-24-1941 St. Pierre - Free French Naval Forces take possession of Saint Pierre et Miquelon without firing a shot. Strong protest lodged by American Secretary of State Cordell Hull but after several weeks of bickering between U.S., Canadian and British diplomats and "the so called Free French" as Hull describes them the coup remain fait accompli."
May, 1942, "May-27 Wallis and Futuna Islands rally to Free French following arrival of the sloop Chevreuil from New Caledonia."
French West Africa seems to have gone over to the Free French in November 1942 as a result of Operation Torch. French Somaliland went over to the Free French in December 1942, but it required an invasion by Free French troops from Ethiopia to do it.
However, French Guiana didn't join Free France until March 1943.
Guadeloupe and Martinique didn't join until June 1943.
The website isn't clear, but it seems that the last Vichy force to join Free France was the naval squadron at Alexandria, which also happened in June 1943.
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My guess is that all the French colonies that joined Free France in 1940 IOTL would do the same ITTL.My guess is that the colonies that would be solidly Vichy ITTL are French North Africa, French West Africa and Syria, which are the ones that count, plus Guadeloupe and Martinique.
What's more important is, how many French sailors would mutiny, rather than fight for the Boche?
IMHO the "game changer" is the Vichy Navy.
Its cruisers and submarines operating from the French Atlantic ports, Casablanca and Dakar would tip the scales in the Battle of the Atlantic between July 1940 and June 1941.
This is a transcript from Volume 1 of Roskill.
My guess is that the tonnage sunk between July 1940 and June 1941 would be much higher than 5.3 million tons, gross ITTL.
ITTL, Vichy France is a belligerent, and the US would not block British/Free French operations to take all the American colonies.
Or the US uses them for the on the job training for its own military. I think Vichy formally joining the Axis is a massive gift for FDR and the other interventionists because now there are Axis bases and Axis forces in the Caribbean. How exactly it plays out I don't know but given the extent to which FDR tried to present the Germans as a threat to Latin America this is something tangible he can actually point to.
Or the US uses them for the on the job training for its own military. I think Vichy formally joining the Axis is a massive gift for FDR and the other interventionists because now there are Axis bases and Axis forces in the Caribbean. How exactly it plays out I don't know but given the extent to which FDR tried to present the Germans as a threat to Latin America this is something tangible he can actually point to.
thaddeus
Donor
this is where things could go off the rails! Germany still has trade and cooperation with USSR at this point, the French are at least allowing materials to transit to KMT China (former trading partner of Germany), Japan had thus far (historically) resisted conflict with UK.
how could they sort thru all these competing interests? would Japan even be paramount in any plans with Vichy regime as co-belligerent if not ally?
Pretty much this. The brits or FF won’t have to do shit cause the USMC will be wading ashore a few weeks after Vichy officially joins the Germans at the absolute most.
Tilt, not necessarily tip.
At least as important as the French vessels operating against Allied shipping would be the use of French bases in Africa by German vessels. The South and Middle Atlantic become extremely vulnerable when U-boats can refuel and resupply thousands of km closer.
Also, Axis aircraft can now scout for Allied shipping in those waters; and Fw 400 bombers can strike all across a large area that was safe OTL.
thaddeus
Donor
they might even add Indian Ocean earlier than historical, at a time when they still had auxiliary cruisers operating too?