Very Late WW1 Different Central Powers Strategies?

Is there anything that Central Powers could have done differently to achieve better results than OTL's armistices (which really left the Germans and everybody incapable of resisting). POD has to be after July 18th 1918 (Allied counterattack at battle of Marne)

Note: A decent armistice would be Germany may have to evacuate Alsace Lorraine, but not the Rhineland, might have to surrender subs, but not intern the surface navy, perhaps surrender bombers (2+ engine) and the heaviest artillery (> 150 mm), but otherwise their military is intact. (of course the Germans and other Central Powers would have to evacuate France and Belgium, Italy and Serbia without demolitions regardless)

Some possible ideas
1) Immediately in July 1918 evacuate France and Belgium (use reserves to prop up Italian and Macedonian fronts)
2) Ask for an armistice in late July when every one is still in. (the Austrians were at the end of the line, were saying so, but were ignored by the Germans in hopes of a defensive victory in the west).
3) #2 but after Ameins in early August 1918, perhaps Ludendorf could be sacked after that.
4) A serious contingency plan after October 1918 to occupy the Brenner pass and to be able to contine resistance during the Winter 18-19 at least.
5) Maybe just don't try to sortie the Navy in November 1918
 
That late in the game, having squandered so much of the remaining potential, there is very little left to do. I am afraid that the best Germany can do is to offer armistice at once, go tactically for ultimative preservation of manpower to keep up morale (and lower the number of Lander opting to become POWs) and try to gain at least a minimum of room for negotiations. However - once again - I don't see much of a chance for that.

Keeping the Navy from planning their run for suicidal glory would be very important if this stops the chain-reaction toppling the old order chaotically, resulting in near-civil-war. A more orderly transition to the Republic (or even keeping a monarch) would not remove most problems of the Weimar Republic, but ameloriate some.
 
What if the Austrians had made a seperate
peace late 1917- early 1918? Or by then were they so closely tied to Germany that
this is ASB?
 
What if the Austrians had made a seperate
peace late 1917- early 1918? Or by then were they so closely tied to Germany that
this is ASB?

By that time if they try something like that, the German will take control of the Hapsburg Empire directely
 

trajen777

Banned
Ok the key was to have the offensive succeed with offensive Hagan to take Amiens,this was the last planned offensive. If this had happened the Brit army already had plans to withdraw from France.

The only possibility was in the planning stage to have withdrawn 500,000 additional troops from the east (they left 1,000,000). With this 500,000 take Ameins. From here give up Al, keep BL and give up navy to GB.
 
Any effort to make peace would cause a rush to the exits. All the CP governments knew if Germany made peace, they were doomed. At the first hint of German armistice talks, the Bulgarians and Ottomans would quickly take whatever terms they were offered knowing things would only get worse.

Once either made peace, the final defeat of Germany would become obvious to the population at large. They would no longer be willing to fight in a hopeless cause and revolution would happen just as in OTl. It will just happen earlier
 
1. Go on the defensive in the Western front and plan to defeat the next great Allied offensives involving the Americans. Everything else is done to conserve manpower. While waiting for the Americans to show up in strength you might consider some offensives to take out Salonika and further cripple Italy, just to give the Allies some bruises and hopefully shut down those fronts so you can use the manpower in the West. But IOTL the Germans withdrew everything they had from Salonika and Italy and sent it to the Western Front anyway.

This is sort of what they were trying to do in 1944. If you can win a defensive victory against the Allies even with the Americans in the line, then you may well get your compromised peace. It helps that the late second Reich isn't the Nazis. But as the 1944 analogy shows, this is a long shot.

2. Try to win the war on the Western Front as IOTL but do a more focused offensive than the IOTL probing for weaknesses in the Allied defenses. Ignore the British and focus on taking out the French. By the way, ignoring the British and just focusing on the French actually worked the one time it was really tried, in 1940.
 
How many CP troops are needed to hold the line on the Western front? If they pull together all the troops they can muster for one last campaign, they can throw everything they have at Italy. If the Italians go down, demand only food and access to the undefended French border as reparation.

Of course, the best time to do this would have been in the spring, but if the French now have a second front to worry about, then their mutinies get far worse. It's a Hail Mary maneuver but it's all I've got.
 
How many CP troops are needed to hold the line on the Western front? If they pull together all the troops they can muster for one last campaign, they can throw everything they have at Italy. If the Italians go down, demand only food and access to the undefended French border as reparation.

Of course, the best time to do this would have been in the spring, but if the French now have a second front to worry about, then their mutinies get far worse. It's a Hail Mary maneuver but it's all I've got.

The border with France is undefendend because it's so favorable to the defeders that a group of schoolgirl can hold an entire infantry division...going naked and armed with just a slingshot against the Maginot Line will be more usefull, by the time enough troops are on the place, the Entente will have time enough to sent troops there, and if they search for food in Italy, they will be disappointed. Knocking out Italy before everything else has been debated many times here, the problems is that by the time the CP are ready the Italian army has been rebuild and retrained...the Austrian offensive in OTL obtained the only result to break the Kuk, if you add the necessary German troops you risk to overheat the logistic line and leave important part of the western front scarcely defended.
The p
 
I wonder how a turco-german victory at the Battle of Tel Meggido (September 1918) could have affected the war.
Perhaps, without a total collapse in their confidence, the turks can linger on just enough for the oil from occupied Baku to reach Europe.
 
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I wonder how a turco-german victory at the Battle of Tel Meggido (September 1918) could have affected the war.
Perhaps, without a total collapse in their confidence, the turks can linger on just enough for the oil from occupied Baku to reach Europe.

Of course it would be good to delay the break-down of the Ottoman Empire. But I doubt that there are logistical possibilities to allow Caspian oil to make a difference in the short-term.
 
Is there anything that Central Powers could have done differently to achieve better results than OTL's armistices (which really left the Germans and everybody incapable of resisting). POD has to be after July 18th 1918 (Allied counterattack at battle of Marne)

Note: A decent armistice would be Germany may have to evacuate Alsace Lorraine, but not the Rhineland, might have to surrender subs, but not intern the surface navy, perhaps surrender bombers (2+ engine) and the heaviest artillery (> 150 mm), but otherwise their military is intact. (of course the Germans and other Central Powers would have to evacuate France and Belgium, Italy and Serbia without demolitions regardless)

Some possible ideas
1) Immediately in July 1918 evacuate France and Belgium (use reserves to prop up Italian and Macedonian fronts)
2) Ask for an armistice in late July when every one is still in. (the Austrians were at the end of the line, were saying so, but were ignored by the Germans in hopes of a defensive victory in the west).
3) #2 but after Ameins in early August 1918, perhaps Ludendorf could be sacked after that.
4) A serious contingency plan after October 1918 to occupy the Brenner pass and to be able to contine resistance during the Winter 18-19 at least.
5) Maybe just don't try to sortie the Navy in November 1918

You could have the Ottomans, and Austro-Hungarians signing a separate peace with Russia. For example minister of war Enver Pasha had a dream of a Greater Ottoman Empire, and saw the Balkans as a lost cause, and wanted expansion East, and he wanted the Turkic Tribes in Russian Turkestan to be annexed into the empire.
 

Perkeo

Banned
Let Germany accept the Fourteen Points with their very own interpretation:
1) Full acceptance
2) Full acceptance
3) Acceptance, try to sell Mitteleuropa as part of that spirit.
4) Acceptance, but only bilateral.
5) This means that all German colonies are either returned or compensated with other colonies.
6) Brest Litowsk borders as OTL, the former Russian territories gain independence. Germany immediately begins to transfer power to local governments, preferably German puppets.
7) Full acceptance
8) Germany denies that any wrong was done to France in 1871 and offers the following procedure to proove it: All current inhabitants of A-L shall decide in a referendum between A-L becoming a German state or get independence. This independence shall be respected by both sides until a second referendum decides otherwise.
9) Similar procedure as 8) for Trento and Triest seperately, South Tyrol stays Austrian whatever may.
10) This means that A-H is not dissolved, but reorganized in a more federal structure, all parts under Habsburg rule
11) "Secure access to the sea"=extrateritorial harbor, no territorial concessions to Serbia.
12) See 10
13) Once again, "access to the sea"=extrateritorial harbor, and much reluctance to accept that the term "inhabited by indisputably Polish populations" applies to any territory other than Russian Congress Poland (to avoid misunderstandings: That's their claim, not my opinion).
14) This means that all former CP are accepted as full members in the league of nation without discrimination.

And last but not least, since reparations aren't mentioned, none will be paid.

This may not directly be signed by the Central Powers, but bring them on the negotiation table and/or make it very difficult to justify a continuation of the war when the path to Entente victory is still to be long and bloody and doesn't even appear to be certain.
 
To comment on mainly Parkeo, simple acceptance of the 14 points but a simple statement that since neither reparations, dissolution of Austria-Hungary, or loss of German territory other than Alsace-Lorraine and the Polish speaking areas were mentioned in the 14 points, the Central Powers will not agree to these. The Central Powers will agree to the 14 points but not go beyond that. That might help with public opinion on both sides.

Same with the armistice turns, the Germans will withdraw from Belgium and Luxembourg but not otherwise disarm (actually the surface fleet had become a liability by that point and could go) or further withdraw.

I wonder if Churchill's hostility to negotiations in 1940 was partly informed by the scam the Allies pulled in 1918-19?
 
This may not directly be signed by the Central Powers, but bring them on the negotiation table and/or make it very difficult to justify a continuation of the war when the path to Entente victory is still to be long and bloody and doesn't even appear to be certain.

No, the Entente both goverment and population will accept terms of this kind only after a defeat, it basically mean that Germany won the war and had become the supreme ruler of Europe and his colonial empire is totally untouched. Any goverment that will fall for it will last only picosecond...and frankly it's too late for PR stunt like that to snatch victory from the jaw of defeat; by the time of the OP the A-H army has already been defeated at second Piave and it's barely hold together and the OTtoman are more or less in the same situation and everybody knows it. Basically to have some serious bargain chip Germany need to ask immediate negotiation, accepting that A-L and the colonial empire will go, accepting the 14 point with some provision and throw his allies to the wolf...so to partecipate to the division of the spoil and also keep the most from B-L
 
I agree that any appeal to the 14 points after the summer doesn't make any difference. Germany of course took to the 14 points as a reference point when starting to discuss an armistice IOTL. However, this was completely unrealistic at this point as after Amiens and 2nd Piave, the ongoing path of the developments in the field was clear and irreversible.

Accepting the 14 points in January would have been different (or at least would lead to a different political situation). Germany's situation after the Russian disintegration was a strategical victory, however it decided to gamble on victory on all fronts instead of at least trying to get into negotiations. Securing that victory would only have been possible with giving clear concessions to the Western powers.

However, this would need a massive internal change within Germany. There is no way to achieve diplomatic flexibility without sacking Hindenburg and Ludendorff. The passing over of power towards the representatives of the parliamentary majority would have to happen by then, and not start in autumn (when everyone is paralyzed by the prospect of defeat and the flu).

Also, the propaganda would have to take leaps in sophistication and along with diplomacy would have to set the strategical aims for the military. Would a massive, but limited offensive still make sense (I think it was a bad choice to let the "Michael"-shock peter out with continued efforts which just showed how the offensive potential had reached its limits), or would it be better to defend flexibly, preserving manpower as well as possible?

This insight, however, would take a massive change from the acting elites and also from the more chauvinistic part of the public which would completely freak out on the prospect of "throwing away victory" or even giving up "sacred German soil".
In the final analysis, these changes are not inconceivable, but I don't see any solution to bring that about apart from some "DEUS EX MACHINA".

In the end, Germans post-war position would be better even if the final outcome would be basically Versailles. Any day less on which Germany wastes money and ressources on that war, any day earlier in which the blockade is lifted, dying and starvation ends, is better in the end.
 
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