Very difficult AHC: Ainu victory

With a POD after 1590, have Hokkaido be primarily Ainu and governed by an independent Ainu state to this day.

I've seen timelines where random countries like Germany and Russia have bought or taken over Hokkaido. If you have it early enough in the form of trading posts (and not actual colonization), then when decolonization comes, it goes free as Ainu-majority.
 
With a POD after 1590, have Hokkaido be primarily Ainu and governed by an independent Ainu state to this day.

Simple, keep Japanese interests out of Hokkaido. All you need to do is to have Japan stay divided and at war with itself, which allows the Ainu to either be colonized or develop through trade and interaction.
 
Imperial Russia capture Hokkaido on 19th century and later USSR creates Socialist Republic of Ainuland. Or is this too late?
 
Imperial Russia capture Hokkaido on 19th century and later USSR creates Socialist Republic of Ainuland. Or is this too late?

Basically yes. The Japanese achieved immense economic power over the Hokkaido Ainu by the late 17th century and near total hegemony over the Hokkadio Ainu by 1800.
 
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