One possibility that occurs to me; if the US is still neutral they might well be chosen as an mediator/host country for any peace negotiations. The OTL US offered to mediate peace once or twice while they were still neutral, so it's not completely impossible that they make an offer in 1918 that's accepted.
Versailles with no US
- Thread starter Calgacus
- Start date
The problem with a short war requires either crushing military defeat for one side or both sides willing to talk.
While the Germans pig headed stance on war aims is the most famous the entente was not much of an improvement. Once the war goes past the first winter forget it, you stuck with the long war in my opinion.
If you don't want German domination in a short war here is a thought. Have A-H fight with some measure of intelligence to start the war. Have Conrad never restored as chief of staff or something following the Bosnian Annexation Crises. AH doesn’t launch their ham fisted double offensive, doesn’t screw up mobilization and put most of their forces vs. Serbia hoping the Russian mobilization numbers their spy’s have given them are fantasy. Maybe even a little intelligence on Vienna’s part and they sign up Sofia for the act. Serbia fights valiantly but is defeated facing a two front war.
The S plan doesn’t work as historic and stalemate follows on the Western Front; perhaps have the Germans fall back a little more than historic. In the east the Russians get killed in East Prussia and have a harder time of it over historic vs. Austria while driving them back no bruising victories either.
In October and November Austria-Hungary and Germany launch their fall attacks vs. Russia. With A-H have far higher levels of manpower compared to historic they are able to have some real success; especially if their commander is willing to coordinate at all (if you haven’t noticed already I think Conrad von Hötzendorf was a massive waste of space). At any rate the Russians don’t hold as much of Austrian Galicia; figure Przemyśl is saved.
That winter the war slows down as historic. Now Vienna has achieved their war aims, honor has been satisfied and they look for the door. Perhaps they have gotten some more details on the black hands involvement with the assassination making Serbia look even worse. With their armies in a much strong position Austria is able to nudge Berlin into at least an attempt at peace. One of the many sources offering mediation is accepted, the Pope, Sweden, USA, Spain, take your pick.
Winter 1915 is before both sides positions had become completely unreasonable; only just mostly.
A peace deal is struck that is largely status quo ante with some shuffling of colonial holdings. Perhaps the Congo is divided up as the price of a free Belgium. The lone exception is Serbia. They loose large amounts of territory to Bulgaria and are disarmed as menace to the General peace but the rumps independence is assured. Russia has another spat of internal disorder following what is viewed as defeat.
Berlin and Vienna claim victory, but its only bought as by the public in AH. The Germans have just spent a great deal of blood and treasure without much to show for it. The will be changes to follow. Austria-Hungary has new life as its place as a great power has been confirmed even thought cost a great deal of blood and money.
France the peace could play out a number of ways it would depend how it is received but I suspect similar to Russia and Germany. The chance at reversing the verdict of Sedan has not been achieved or has it? Germany still has A-L but Frenchmen can point to their victor at the Marne but what did that victory get them. The UK has secured Belgium’s independence but the shock of the virtual destruction of BEF is going to leave a bad taste in peoples mouths.
Italy and the Ottoman Empire will reevaluate their diplomatic stances.
Michael
In OTL Germany surrendured, assuming the 14 Points would be the basis of the treaty. If there is no American intervention in WW1, the 14 points will probably not be in the Treaty; unless Wilson negotiates a peace, like TR in 1908~.
ANti Germany:
Germany, IMHO, will surrendur, and will be in even worse post-war conditions than OTL. Successful Beer Hall Pusch?
Pro German outcome:
The 2nd Reich will have much leverage on the West, but will try to make a peace treaty quickly, due to revolutionaries. German republic estblished, leading to French desire for revenge~~~Could the Vichy France leaders in OTL lead a French Worker's Party revolt in ATL?
ANti Germany:
Germany, IMHO, will surrendur, and will be in even worse post-war conditions than OTL. Successful Beer Hall Pusch?
Pro German outcome:
The 2nd Reich will have much leverage on the West, but will try to make a peace treaty quickly, due to revolutionaries. German republic estblished, leading to French desire for revenge~~~Could the Vichy France leaders in OTL lead a French Worker's Party revolt in ATL?
67th Tigers
Banned
The main influence of the US OTL was to stop an equitable trade in territory. The allies simply wanted security, not to punish Germany. France wanted the Rhineland to give her a natural defensible barrier against the Reich, Britain wanted the threat of a German navy removed, Russia was screwed and simply wanted to get out. The US would hear none of this, so instead the allies concocted plans to keep Germany down by other means.
In an ATL no-US, I believe something like this would happen:
Germany loses the Rhineland and the Saar, and obviously A-L to France. France is satisfied.
Germany gives up her Polish territories to a new Kingdom of Poland. Russia is happy.
Germany agrees to limit her Fleet. Britain is happy.
The decaying A-H and Ottoman empires get carved up prettymuch as OTL.
The new Germany is smaller, but socially intact (save perhaps becoming more Federal). It resists the rise of extremism and by the 1940's has largely been forgiven for the Great War.
????
1) Germany is even more enraged over the ATL
2) Prussia as one of the federal states is still there and so the internal system of Germany is still broken
3) The SPD is still discredited in the eyes of the rest of Germany for signing the treaty. So the parties of the right refuse to take part in government, the judges and army cause their historic problems. The parties of the far left still don't care about Germany and just want the final revolution to take place. Germany is even more economicly damaged than historic and so at some point the wheels come off the system.
4) As an FYI the idea that the US was the problem here is funny. Wilson was rather neatly shoved into a box when the treaty was worked out. The UK put a damper on even more radical ideas from France, such as the Rhenish Republic, Bavarian Republic, or even wider scale dismemberment. Yes the US was against these and other ideas also but Wilson alone didn't stand in the way of Clemenceau's desire to shove Germany to its knees and keep it there.
Michael
Well that sounds good. Still not sure about the value of short versus long war - I presume you think a long war more likely? However, the short war is perhaps more likely to result in a useful stalemate without US involvement, and might not require a US-British crisis as the long war would. Perhaps, as you say, the Austrians crush Serbia much more quickly (possibly going to war earlier than OTL) and the Germans suffer a worse defeat on the Marne, forcing them to retreat further. Once the stalemate on the west settles, both sides are willing to look for a way out.
Either that, or the Russians win in East Prussia, and Germany is forced to come to an early peace.
OK, I know I'm coming late to this thread and I don't have time to read it all (I did tick that option in the recent poll btw) but I would think that the kind of victory that the Allies win in 1919 without US intervention is going to be an exhausting one, bloody and pushing them to their limit to achieve it.
Consequently, whilst sure revolutions and internal pressures can force the Germans to an Armistice, the decisive factor will be that the Allies are not in a position to threaten to restart the war six months down the line when they present the peace terms. In fact, I would imagine that a German delegation would have to be involved in the peace discussions, as at Vienna in 1815 with France.
Therefore, whilst restitution will be made in the West, there will be no demilitarisation of the Rhineland or anything regarding the Saar. There will be reparations (since Germany imposed those in France in 1870 so turnaround is fair) but they won't be the incredible sum of OTL. The fleet will probably be interned, but not scuttled, and a rump fleet will be allowed. Aircraft will be allowed, and the limitation on the size of the army will be larger, though probably still there
In the East, Poland gets free from German influence, whilst the Allies ensure similarly the independence of the Baltic states. Finland and Lithuania however may emerge from all this as monarchies.
Austria-Hungary is doomed by defeat, and both the Ottomans and Bulgaria are likely to have had their territory penetrated in some depth with the German collapse as per OTL. With no idea of 'mandates' the settlements in the Arab lands, and in the German colonies, will be a mixture of independent vassal states and directly owned colonies. Thus SW Afrika is likely to become an integral part of South Africa, for example, whilst the Carolines and Marianas become full Japanese possessions and both Australia and New Zealand gain islands as part of their integral territory
Germany loses no territory in the East - the Poles are not strong enough to take it, and the Allies cannot force the Germans to do so without restarting a war that they are not able to carry to the necessary conclusion
Best Regards
Grey Wolf
Consequently, whilst sure revolutions and internal pressures can force the Germans to an Armistice, the decisive factor will be that the Allies are not in a position to threaten to restart the war six months down the line when they present the peace terms. In fact, I would imagine that a German delegation would have to be involved in the peace discussions, as at Vienna in 1815 with France.
Therefore, whilst restitution will be made in the West, there will be no demilitarisation of the Rhineland or anything regarding the Saar. There will be reparations (since Germany imposed those in France in 1870 so turnaround is fair) but they won't be the incredible sum of OTL. The fleet will probably be interned, but not scuttled, and a rump fleet will be allowed. Aircraft will be allowed, and the limitation on the size of the army will be larger, though probably still there
In the East, Poland gets free from German influence, whilst the Allies ensure similarly the independence of the Baltic states. Finland and Lithuania however may emerge from all this as monarchies.
Austria-Hungary is doomed by defeat, and both the Ottomans and Bulgaria are likely to have had their territory penetrated in some depth with the German collapse as per OTL. With no idea of 'mandates' the settlements in the Arab lands, and in the German colonies, will be a mixture of independent vassal states and directly owned colonies. Thus SW Afrika is likely to become an integral part of South Africa, for example, whilst the Carolines and Marianas become full Japanese possessions and both Australia and New Zealand gain islands as part of their integral territory
Germany loses no territory in the East - the Poles are not strong enough to take it, and the Allies cannot force the Germans to do so without restarting a war that they are not able to carry to the necessary conclusion
Best Regards
Grey Wolf
I see the long war as an almost given once the opening campaign is done.
See Cataclysm: The First World War as Political Tragedy by David Stevenson it has the most recent treatment of entente war aims in it, I don't remember th chapter where its covered.
If you are looking for some sort of... moderate peace and a short war I think you need victory on one front but not the other. Perhaps the Russians over run East Prussia; von Prittwitz total retreat order goes forward for example and get a bridge head on the vistual. I have no idea how the Russians logistics support it though. Or... The Russians break onto Hungarian plain during the Carpathian Offensive that fall with AH having total military disintergration. In the west you have a couple of options open.
1) German defeat on the Marne turns into a rout and the front becomes stable way more to the east.
2) During the battle of the frontiers (Battle of Charleroi in late August) Lanrezac botches his withdrawl and the French 5th army is destroyed by the German 1st, 2nd and 3rd armies. The German offesnive runs out of steam much closer to Paris and perhaps a big chuck of the channel ports are taken.
3) Italy enters the war at once on either side, it would greatly upset the balance just in terms of over stretching the othersides manpower and frontage covered.
Michael