alternatehistory.com

Aceh was one of the oldest and most potent Sumatran states:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sultanate_of_Aceh

It's independence was desired by Britain against the Dutch, until 1873 when a convention was signed withdrawing British support in exchange for concessions elsewhere. The Dutch promptly manufactured a casus belli and attacked.

The first attack was horribly defeated and the Dutch general killed. They returned with a larger force, but the Achinese retreated inland and offered a rather successful guerilla resistance to the Dutch, who eventually gave up really trying and just sat in the capital.

In the 1890s, a British ship was wrecked and the crew captured by the Achinese, prompting a renewed Dutch effort to subdue the interior, which was gradually effected after a decade of hard fighting, and Aceh was never really completely pacified.

Meanwhile, on the Ottoman front (you knew there had to be one, didn't you?), entreaties for help had arrived from Aceh, which claimed to be a province of the Ottoman Empire, as they had been since the 1500s (very easy to submit to provincehood to a power too far away to exert any control). The Ottomans were confused to find themselves with a province in the East Indes, but a search of the archives turned up past relations - which mostly involved aid having been sent against the Portuguese.

This was a problem. The Sultan had begun to be regarded as the Caliph of all Islam, and newspapers were widely circulated in Istanbul, and the perceived failure of the Sultan (Abdul Aziz) to protect Islamic lands against Christian conquest was a factor in his deposition.

The Ottomans certainly did have the ability to help Aceh, but it did not have the strength to do so in the face of opposition from the powers.

Now, if the Ottomans were a stronger state, as they might well be in an alternate TL, and more significant in the balance of power, they might for a variety of reasons help the Achinese - perhaps in the second phase of the war beginning in the 1890s.

The Achinese were very tough and able fighters, but lacked modern equipment. Supplies with such, they would be a very grave threat to the Dutch.

So a question: What would it take for the Dutch to abandon Aceh? The occupation had never been particularly popular at home, but there were issues of prestige and national pride. Would they do whatever it took to win?

Assume the Ottomans control all their pre-1878 territory plus Egypt (with the Sudan). That's a pretty significant power, although not equal to a real Power (except maybe Italy). What would happen if a war broke out between the Ottomans and the Netherlands over Aceh?

Militarily I think the Dutch would be in big trouble - but how would the other powers react? The Ottomans are more important in terms of the balance of power and in their geo-strategic position, but how seriously would people take the idea of a Muslim subject people being liberated from Christian rule - by a Muslim power?

This has scary implications for British India, where the Mutiny still haunts British planners, France has to worry about Algeria, and the Dutch position in the whole East Indes would be shaken.

So what happens? The answer is not "The powers all gang up and partition the empire." Won't happen.
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