Veranda of Mecca: A Free Aceh

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

Aceh was one of the oldest and most potent Sumatran states:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sultanate_of_Aceh

It's independence was desired by Britain against the Dutch, until 1873 when a convention was signed withdrawing British support in exchange for concessions elsewhere. The Dutch promptly manufactured a casus belli and attacked.

The first attack was horribly defeated and the Dutch general killed. They returned with a larger force, but the Achinese retreated inland and offered a rather successful guerilla resistance to the Dutch, who eventually gave up really trying and just sat in the capital.

In the 1890s, a British ship was wrecked and the crew captured by the Achinese, prompting a renewed Dutch effort to subdue the interior, which was gradually effected after a decade of hard fighting, and Aceh was never really completely pacified.

Meanwhile, on the Ottoman front (you knew there had to be one, didn't you?), entreaties for help had arrived from Aceh, which claimed to be a province of the Ottoman Empire, as they had been since the 1500s (very easy to submit to provincehood to a power too far away to exert any control). The Ottomans were confused to find themselves with a province in the East Indes, but a search of the archives turned up past relations - which mostly involved aid having been sent against the Portuguese.

This was a problem. The Sultan had begun to be regarded as the Caliph of all Islam, and newspapers were widely circulated in Istanbul, and the perceived failure of the Sultan (Abdul Aziz) to protect Islamic lands against Christian conquest was a factor in his deposition.

The Ottomans certainly did have the ability to help Aceh, but it did not have the strength to do so in the face of opposition from the powers.

Now, if the Ottomans were a stronger state, as they might well be in an alternate TL, and more significant in the balance of power, they might for a variety of reasons help the Achinese - perhaps in the second phase of the war beginning in the 1890s.

The Achinese were very tough and able fighters, but lacked modern equipment. Supplies with such, they would be a very grave threat to the Dutch.

So a question: What would it take for the Dutch to abandon Aceh? The occupation had never been particularly popular at home, but there were issues of prestige and national pride. Would they do whatever it took to win?

Assume the Ottomans control all their pre-1878 territory plus Egypt (with the Sudan). That's a pretty significant power, although not equal to a real Power (except maybe Italy). What would happen if a war broke out between the Ottomans and the Netherlands over Aceh?

Militarily I think the Dutch would be in big trouble - but how would the other powers react? The Ottomans are more important in terms of the balance of power and in their geo-strategic position, but how seriously would people take the idea of a Muslim subject people being liberated from Christian rule - by a Muslim power?

This has scary implications for British India, where the Mutiny still haunts British planners, France has to worry about Algeria, and the Dutch position in the whole East Indes would be shaken.

So what happens? The answer is not "The powers all gang up and partition the empire." Won't happen.

 

[Nusantara]

Well, as an Indonesian of course I knew about the Sultanate of Aceh, but that they were assisted by Ottoman troops - that's something i've never heard of before. And since my knowledge on the Ottomans is not to good, I can't comment on 'what if's' about them.

However, concerning Aceh itself, it was in a very strategic position. In the mid 1600's they had control of all of the Malacca strait, and even with the British controlling the Malaya peninsula and the Dutch with southern Sumatra Acehnese ships could easily block access to the strait if they had the right tools and willpower. The main problem was that Aceh did not, by the mid to late 1800's, to project their navy, and although in a strategic position, could not use that to their advantage.

I'm guessing with Ottoman help, that could change. Unfortunately for the Ottoman Empire, I doubt that even if they beat the Dutch that they would get a hold in the spice islands. The Acehnese were very independent, and did not like anyone ruling over them. Hell, since the Dutch occupied them they've been fighting a guerrilla war. Only the 2004 Tsunami forced them to sign a peace treaty, and even now they have significant autonomy.

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

Well, as an Indonesian of course I knew about the Sultanate of Aceh, but that they were assisted by Ottoman troops - that's something i've never heard of before. And since my knowledge on the Ottomans is not to good, I can't comment on 'what if's' about them.

However, concerning Aceh itself, it was in a very strategic position. In the mid 1600's they had control of all of the Malacca strait, and even with the British controlling the Malaya peninsula and the Dutch with southern Sumatra Acehnese ships could easily block access to the strait if they had the right tools and willpower. The main problem was that Aceh did not, by the mid to late 1800's, to project their navy, and although in a strategic position, could not use that to their advantage.

I'm guessing with Ottoman help, that could change. Unfortunately for the Ottoman Empire, I doubt that even if they beat the Dutch that they would get a hold in the spice islands. The Acehnese were very independent, and did not like anyone ruling over them. Hell, since the Dutch occupied them they've been fighting a guerrilla war. Only the 2004 Tsunami forced them to sign a peace treaty, and even now they have significant autonomy.

The object wouldn't be to rule them - the object would be to increase the prestige of the Caliphate by defending an Islamic realm from attack. Afterwards, it would probably be an autonomous protectorate with Ottoman control over its foreign affairs only, probably with some military & naval presence to protect it. Conveniently, they wouldn't have to change the flag.

Do you have any thoughts about how this would affect the rest of Indonesia? An Islamic state defeating a European one would be electrifying, I would think. In the short-term, perhaps Dutch power is too great, but I imagine under the right circumstances it could accelerate independence - or at least increase assertiveness in dealing with the Dutch.

Assistance was apparently sent in the 1500's, BTW - some troops and cannon.

 

[Minchandre]

In my mind, I see two distinct situations: the Sultan sends some help, but not enough to piss off Europe, and the Sultan sends significant help. I'm not certain what the former case would look like, in terms of numbers, as I have no clue how far the Great Powers were willing to go. The British and French just fought alongside the Ottomans not twenty years past, but I have little doubt that they'd turn against those damned Mohammedans if they had the chance, and the Dutch aren't going to appreciate some random Mediterranean power interfering with their colonialism. I have no idea what happens in Aceh, here.

The most interesting situation I can see is one where the Ottoman Empire lends significant support to Aceh. The Dutch get angry; angry enough, maybe, to plan an attack on the Empire's homeland. The United Kingdom also has extensive Muslim holdings (notably including Egypt), and probably doesn't like the Sultan getting ideas. A joint Anglo-Dutch attack on Istanbul results in...I don't know exactly what. I wanted to bring the French in on the side of the Ottomans and start the Great War a few decades early, but they're too roughed up from the Franco-Prussian War to do anything. Austria-Hungary is very likely not going to help their ancient nemesis, and I'm not sure what Russia could do, even if they could be convinced to help, so no early Great War. I don't know enough about the respective militaries to say what would happen in the event of the Anglo-Dutch/Ottoman War.

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

In my mind, I see two distinct situations: the Sultan sends some help, but not enough to piss off Europe, and the Sultan sends significant help. I'm not certain what the former case would look like, in terms of numbers, as I have no clue how far the Great Powers were willing to go. The British and French just fought alongside the Ottomans not twenty years past, but I have little doubt that they'd turn against those damned Mohammedans if they had the chance, and the Dutch aren't going to appreciate some random Mediterranean power interfering with their colonialism. I have no idea what happens in Aceh, here.

The most interesting situation I can see is one where the Ottoman Empire lends significant support to Aceh. The Dutch get angry; angry enough, maybe, to plan an attack on the Empire's homeland. The United Kingdom also has extensive Muslim holdings (notably including Egypt), and probably doesn't like the Sultan getting ideas. A joint Anglo-Dutch attack on Istanbul results in...I don't know exactly what. I wanted to bring the French in on the side of the Ottomans and start the Great War a few decades early, but they're too roughed up from the Franco-Prussian War to do anything. Austria-Hungary is very likely not going to help their ancient nemesis, and I'm not sure what Russia could do, even if they could be convinced to help, so no early Great War. I don't know enough about the respective militaries to say what would happen in the event of the Anglo-Dutch/Ottoman War.

The Ottomans would never do anything that would result in a general war. They might be willing to end up at war with the Netherlands, which can do nothing whatsoever to harm the Ottomans - but they would back down if presented with a situation where they would have to go to war with Britain, France, or Russia, and probably Italy.

So either Britain would have to be busy, like in a Boer War or something, or they would have to view the Ottomans as more important than the Dutch - both in real terms and in terms of opinion at home - and with an eye on India.

 

[Minchandre]

The Ottomans would never do anything that would result in a general war. They might be willing to end up at war with the Netherlands, which can do nothing whatsoever to harm the Ottomans - but they would back down if presented with a situation where they would have to go to war with Britain, France, or Russia, and probably Italy.

So either Britain would have to be busy, like in a Boer War or something, or they would have to view the Ottomans as more important than the Dutch - both in real terms and in terms of opinion at home - and with an eye on India.

Alright, so let's say that the Sultan for whatever reason really wants to portray himself as the Caliph, the protector of Islam, etc etc and commits to sending significant support to Aceh...only to find that the British ambassador catches word and implies to the Sublime Porte that major action against the Dutch would anger Her Majesty the Queen, who once vacationed in Rotterdam. How does the Emperor get through this without losing even more face than just ignoring the pleas in the first place would have resulted in?

 

[Faeelin]

Heh, Aceh was also trying to get the Americans involved; in 1871 they signed a commercial treaty that they hoped would lead to further influence.

 

[Nusantara]

Heh, Aceh was also trying to get the Americans involved; in 1871 they signed a commercial treaty that they hoped would lead to further influence.

A pro-US Aceh would be pretty cool, and possibly change today's modern Islamic extremists stance on America - if they even exist

But regarding the rest of Indonesia, it really depends on when the Ottomans help. In the 1870's, the only ones with rights and education in the East Indies were the whites and local royals, and to a lesser extent Indo-Belanda, or 'mulatto'. If the Dutch were unsuccessful in conquering the Acehnese before the 1900's I doubt there would be popular uprising. At the most a few sultanates (I could see Makassar in South Sulawesi and possibly the Balinese kingdoms) rise up, but the majority of rulers surprisingly were too busy fighting themselves, and they needed the Dutch weapons. An Indonesia in this scenario would be divided, and the concept of Nusantara would not exist. Not for a while, anyways

If this were after 1900 however, the first batch of Pribumi (that's native blood) Indonesians would be returning from study abroad in Holland, filled with ideologies of freedom and nationalism, as well as communism, capitalism and everything in between. If Aceh were liberated, or stayed independent at this time the rest of the East Indies would rise up, but would probably not be truly free until the end of WWII.

 

[Hendryk]

Are you saying this is taking place in the 1890s? In that case there may be a solution: that was when Germany was busily seeking a foothold in East Asia and the Pacific. How close were Germany and the Ottomans by then, and would Germany accept to provide moral support for the intervention in exchange for, say, preferential trading rights and a coaling station in Aceh?

 

[Alex Richards]

I must say I have a soft spot for Aceh. After all they apparently had a fleet of 500 ships in the 1500s (or something).

Looking at the 1890s, I should imagine the Germans could be asked, possibly the Japaneese, and even simple supply of Guns to Aceh from the Ottomans may be enough to prolong things until the *First World War. Presumably that will involve Germany v. France and the Netherlands could just be pressured into holding off in Indonesia by the presnece of the German army in Belgium/mobilised.

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

I'm thinking enough aid to defeat the Dutch, not just a few guns. Seeing as they were strong enough already to confine the Dutch to the capital, some modern equipment, artillery, and training should make a difference.

Nusantara: If the whole archipelago is under Dutch rule except one corner of Sumatra, does that really effect a concept of unity? After all, North Borneo and East Timor were in different hands. I would think a free Aceh would rather be a beacon around which the rest could maintain dreams of eventual freedom.

 

[Nusantara]

What i'm saying is before the 1910, the idea of Indonesia as a single nation or people didn't exist. The last time the majority of the archipelago was maybe in the 1200's, and so the concept of Indonesian nationalism, or nationalism in general, was unknown to most Indonesians.

It took 300 years of colonial rule before the Indonesians felt the need to unite against the Dutch. Before then, all efforts to break free were localized. The word 'Indonesia' itself was first coined by a German in 1884, and not used by an Indonesian until 1913, thirty years later.

Therefor, if Aceh were to remain outside of Dutch hands, others might be inspired to do the same, but most probably won't unite together. One example, the Sultanates of Yogyakarta and Surakarta were constantly at war and the Dutch switched sides with them all the time. Both hated the Dutch, but both needed the Dutch. If one were to declare independence, the other would assist the Dutch in occupying them rather than join them in rebel.

But that may be all for the best, as an Indonesia divided might become better off in the long term.

 

[zortaw]

im dutch and i say my opinion

i think the Dutch wouldnt be in trouble at all, since The Ottoman empire and The Dutch empire lay very far from eachoter, i dont think ther will be an active war.

Remember, the ottomans were busy with the Russians and they were concentrated on the Land, not at Sea. And since the Dutch are real sailors, and we had better ships than the ottmans, i guess we (The Dutch) had won

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

im dutch and i say my opinion

i think the Dutch wouldnt be in trouble at all, since The Ottoman empire and The Dutch empire lay very far from eachoter, i dont think ther will be an active war.

Remember, the ottomans were busy with the Russians and they were concentrated on the Land, not at Sea. And since the Dutch are real sailors, and we had better ships than the ottmans, i guess we (The Dutch) had won

This is a TL where the Ottomans don't lose the war of 1877-78. After that, there was very little conflict or even tension until WWI. The Dutch are better sailors, perhaps, but they're much further away, and have a much smaller navy. The Ottomans had the 3rd largest fleet in the world in 1878.

Also, they would be assisting people who really, really didn't want to be ruled by the Dutch - there were very few people who were able to resist colonialism for 30 entire years of warfare - no small achievement, and there's really no way to prevent the Ottomans from sending aid if they want to, navy or no navy.

What I would be interested in your opinion on, how would Dutch public opinion react to a bruising conflict in Aceh that is going very badly, especially given that opinion was against the occupation in the first place?

 

[Nusantara]

im dutch and i say my opinion

i think the Dutch wouldnt be in trouble at all, since The Ottoman empire and The Dutch empire lay very far from eachoter, i dont think ther will be an active war.

Remember, the ottomans were busy with the Russians and they were concentrated on the Land, not at Sea. And since the Dutch are real sailors, and we had better ships than the ottmans, i guess we (The Dutch) had won

*cough*BIAS*cough*

 

[Ofaloaf]

Could some sort of suzerainty deal be passed through either directly with the Acehnese or some classic Great Powers congress which doesn't involve anybody remotely connected to the actual issue? If Aceh was declared a protectorate by the Dutch, British, Japanese, Ottomans, or any state considered remotely 'modern', that would probably be enough to stop the Dutch campaign (although it would drive jingoistic Dutch mad) and satisfy the Acehnese (they'd still be marginally independent, after all, even if a Resident was present) while at the same time work well with the general way things worked in the late Victorian period.

 

[Minchandre]

*cough*BIAS*cough*

Yeah, there's none of that anywhere else in this thread...

Anyway, let's assume that Aceh accepts aid from Germany or Japan. How long would it be before the Sultanate was a de facto puppet? How long before an imported capitalist class made it an effective colony?

 

[Susano]

Are you saying this is taking place in the 1890s? In that case there may be a solution: that was when Germany was busily seeking a foothold in East Asia and the Pacific. How close were Germany and the Ottomans by then, and would Germany accept to provide moral support for the intervention in exchange for, say, preferential trading rights and a coaling station in Aceh?

Contrary to popular opinion the Germans of the Kaiserreich did not have a collective switch that shut their brains off whenever colonies were mentioned While Germany and the Netherlands did not have a formal alliance, relations were always excellent, and I dont think Germany would act against a friendly power like that.

But that shouldnt be necessary anyways. Ottoman support alone might well suffice. Even more of course Ottoman and US-American support. It depends on how the Dutch and how the powers react, of course. After all, a successful native resistance might set a bad precedence...

How long before an imported capitalist class made it an effective colony?

Well, as puppet it would most likely still fare better than as colony, but as said at least from German side thats very, very unlikely.

 

[Douglas]

A naval battle between the Ottomans and Dutch at this time period would be interesting, as neither appears particularly strong at sea in the 1890's.

That said, if you wanted the "best" way for them to survive, Wikipedia says this, though it should be taken with a grain of salt:

When Aceh was attacked by the Dutch in 1873, triggering the Aceh War, Aceh invoked the protection of its earlier agreement with the Ottoman Empire as one of its dependencies, but the claim was rejected by Western powers, fearing a precedent. Once again Aceh requested military reinforcements to the Ottomans, but the tasked fleet originally designated to help was diverted to Yemen to suppress the Zaidi rebellion there.

The Ottomans could probably have forced the Dutch to "reconsider" their attack, as they had a very large fleet at this time. I would imagine the squadron sent would be superior to whatever the Dutch to scrape up in the DEI.

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

A naval battle between the Ottomans and Dutch at this time period would be interesting, as neither appears particularly strong at sea in the 1890's.

That said, if you wanted the "best" way for them to survive, Wikipedia says this, though it should be taken with a grain of salt:

The Ottomans could probably have forced the Dutch to "reconsider" their attack, as they had a very large fleet at this time. I would imagine the squadron sent would be superior to whatever the Dutch to scrape up in the DEI.

I am not under the impression that this ever happened. The Ottomans offered to mediate, but Russia persuaded or forced them to withdraw the offer, presumably for fear of this increasing the Sultan/Caliph's prestige. At this time, the Ottomans were more concerned with international law (being meticulous in its observance to make sure healthy precedents were set, as well as avoiding problems, as the empire was in 1873 headed to a major default due to the global economic crash that year).

Abdul Hamid reestablished ties and kept in touch with Aceh, but Ottoman power was very fragile and he husbanded it very carefully.

I'm talking about the case where the Ottomans don't get crushed in 1878, and therefore have both all their territory from prior to that war and reestablish control over Egypt - essentially an empire with 3 times the power in the 1890s as in OTL and much higher confidence.

The Ottomans had a huge fleet in 1878, but had to give it up for financial reasons - here they would not. The Dutch fleet doesn't even approach them in power, and has no real way of even getting to Aceh, whereas the Ottomans can project power from Basra, or even the Egyptian base at Berbera. The Dutch are going to have to take either the Tsushima Cape route, or the Tsushima Pacific route. As far as army forces go, their resources are limited and would have to face a very hostile population as well as the Ottomans.

I don't really feel there's any military question here - Aceh/Ottomans would win.

What I'm asking is whether or not this is diplomatically possible.

Germany is not going to get involved against the Netherlands - it's hard to predict KWII's line, but I would think Germany would feel it had no stake in this war. The USA is certainly not getting involved. It's really about the British, primarily, and the French and Russians secondarily.