Venezuela invades Dutch Antilles

OK, just inspired by reading an article on such a poss future war today, which speculated that Chavez' forces could stand a chance of invading & occupying the Dutch West Indies, & the Dutch, altho well-equipped & motivated, would be pretty hard-pressed to either defend the islands or retake them, & it'd be unbcertain if NATO would step in under Art. 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty. Therefore, it'd be a Nertherlands version of the Falklands. Any thoughts on how such a war could've turned out since say 2003 ?
 
OK, just inspired by reading an article on such a poss future war today, which speculated that Chavez' forces could stand a chance of invading & occupying the Dutch West Indies, & the Dutch, altho well-equipped & motivated, would be pretty hard-pressed to either defend the islands or retake them, & it'd be unbcertain if NATO would step in under Art. 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty. Therefore, it'd be a Nertherlands version of the Falklands. Any thoughts on how such a war could've turned out since say 2003 ?

I have a hunch that the US would be unlikely to stand idly by, in this situation.
 

CalBear

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This would be a gilded invitation to the United States to eliminate Chavez's regime.

The NATO Alliance specifically excludes the Carribean region being discussed, but the U.S. has any number of other treaties and precedents that would make American intervention a forgone conclusion.
 

Rockingham

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Is their a paticular reason for him to do so though?

My understanding is the Antilles are pretty much worthless.
Fighting a war over useless rocks:D might win him external support, but I have a feeling venzuelans wouldn't be too happy about it....
 

CalBear

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And this is the ironic end of the Monroe Doctrine: the US supporting an European colonial empire against an American nation. :eek:

Not really. The Doctrine referred to NEW European colonization or interference with legitimate governments in the Americas.

The Netherland Antillies have voted, overwhelmingly, to remain in association with The Netherlands (the highest vote total for independence was 5% on Curcao, with the other Islands at 1% or less) in one of two status, self governing region or closer ties to the Home Country. Aruba is already in the "self governing" status, the other changes will be in place December '08.

Intervening in the Antillies would be defending the democratically elected government. That would be very much in keeping up the spirit of the Monroe Doctrine AND FDR's Good Neighbor Policy.
 
I know this is a dead thread but...

It's a interesting situation. Personally I fear the most for the strength of the Dutch politicians. However, the military would be able to take the challenge. No problem, a challenge at most.

First we would have the start position in mind. There is a Dutch frigate in the region at all times. It might be in Willemstad, or sailing in the Carribean. If it's in port it can aid in the defense but will probably be destroyed in the first strike. Alot of crewmembers won't be aboard though and could help in the defense.

Then there is the Marine battalion which is stationed on Curacao. Now these are crack-forces. As hard as the British Marines. They'll fight and fight hard.

So the Southern Antilles (Auba, Bonaire, Curacao) might be taken, with heavily losses. That is a big IF but let's assume. However, there are also Dutch islands in the Northern part of the Caribbean. No way that those islands can be taken, much to far away for a sneak attack.

Those islands can be used as bases for the Dutch Military. The best military in the European Little League so to speak. Is it the UK or Spain? No but it's the best 2nd Tier military of Europe.

Top notch F-16, excellent naval vessels. With the Airmobile Brigade and the Marine Corps it has superb expeditionary forces, adding the rest of the Army. Great Special Forces as well I might add.

The Dutch Navy has a great history with power projection capability. Enough to kick the Venezualans out of the Antilles. All this happening while Dutch Commando's kill Chavez and the Silent Service blows up Venezuelan Drilling Platforms.

I'd like to see it though ;)
 
It'd be another Falklands-type situation, but this time the U.S. would be more than happy to assist the Dutch much more openly. SUBLANT would send a few SSNs down there to make the Venezualan Navy go away (nothing like ships being sunk to make surface-ship captains sufficiently frightened), do some SEAL insertion on the islands for intel and to make the garrison's life more exciting and violent, for example. Then you'd have a CVBG go down for air cover (nearest base is in Puerto Rico, and it's a stretch with tanker support) and to cover the inevitable U.S./Dutch amphibious landings to retake the islands. The SSNs and carrier escorts also shoot TLAMs into Caracas (Defense Ministry, Presidential Palace, air and naval bases, power plants) to remind the locals that they voted for this nut, and this is what you get for putting up with his antics. Chavez then suffers the fate of the Argentine Junta after the Falklands.....
 
OK, just inspired by reading an article on such a poss future war today, which speculated that Chavez' forces could stand a chance of invading & occupying the Dutch West Indies, & the Dutch, altho well-equipped & motivated, would be pretty hard-pressed to either defend the islands or retake them, & it'd be unbcertain if NATO would step in under Art. 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty. Therefore, it'd be a Nertherlands version of the Falklands. Any thoughts on how such a war could've turned out since say 2003 ?
First of all Chavez would have no chance against Holland with or without NATO. Second of all he has too many problems in his own country and would not want to deal with a war outside of Venezuela especially with the coming election of his controversial revisions to the constitution. He needs the army in case of a civil war. In 2003 it would have been even harder as the oppositions was much stronger and if the army was focused in Holland they most likely would have organised a coup d'etat Chavez knew this and would not risk going to war.
 
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I'd think France at least would want to help- they have interests down in the carribean region still after all and with their guyana being the only part of S.America still part of a European nation it would be high on Chavez's hitlist.
Could lead to interesting pan-Europeanism and perhaps speed up the birth of a EU army.
 
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I'd think France at least would want to help- they have interests down in the carribean region still after all and with their guyana being the only part of S.America still part of a European nation it would be high on Chavez's hitlist.
Could lead to interesting pan-Europeanism and perhaps speed up the birth of a EU army.
... or the the US provides heavy assistance for the nations actually involved, and the European nations not involved don't bother to help the remnants of West European colonialism. Considering which group has the necessary lift capacity, I know which I would bet on.
 
Pretext

Is their a paticular reason for him to do so though?

Who knows what his pretext would be. He wouldn't be the first dictator, sorry president for life, to make up a pretext to start a war as a distraction to his populace.
 
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